Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Which looks suspiciously like the strategy of the old FO too...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt, he had issues. But would you rather trot him out there again and see what happens? Or cut him to add a warm body like Wimmers? That's the choice we face today.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Dollar Dog Day at Target Field next Wednesday!
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    10 K/9 over a full MLB season, versus only 3 BB/9, is a sign of success. If Chargois or one of the relievers you listed had already done that, I'd probably want them on the roster too. Is there a better alternative than Tonkin to plug in today? Surely not Wimmers. Probably not quite Chargois yet either. I could have gotten behind a theoretical winter acquisition taking his spot, but today I just don't see one in the org. No point in flushing that away today for no good reason.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, I still think Vogelsong would have had the inside track (at least for a bullpen job) with any kind of acceptable performance this spring. But he sort of made the decision for us. Although that's definitely a step up from TR/Antony, who wouldn't even let Jason Bartlett retire after a 4-for-43 spring...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't quite put Tonkin in that group today. Beyond K rate, he's actually dominated in the high minors and shown signs of success in MLB too. And not necessarily because he's older -- he first reached AAA and MLB at age 23, although he's hung around now for a few years. He's obviously not a sure thing, but I think he clearly deserves one more chance over the alternatives available today. Even if reliever moves are by definition pretty low-margin, I would have been upset had we cut him today in favor of Wimmers.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    While looking at reliever stats, I noticed Minnesota native Brad Hand had a pretty good relief season with the Padres last year. He was claimed off waivers from the Marlins last April. Off the top of my head, Will Harris was an Astros waiver claim from the 2014-2015 offseason and has turned out pretty good too. Hopefully the Twins can make some good claims in the next month (and hopefully they have the lowest waiver priority in the league after that ).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, league is only the top priority for August trade waiver claims. For outright assignment/release waiver claims, the first priority is record regardless of league. http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3525
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    That would be huge, but so far Sano is trending the wrong way. Here are Bryant's spring training K rates: 2014: 55% (11/20) 2015: 32% (14/44) 2016: 24% (15/62) 2017: 21% (12/58) Here are Sano's to date: 2016: 31% (20/64) 2017: 43% (22/51)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Three Rule 5 relievers have already been returned. Any of them more interesting than Tonkin or Haley? Caleb Smith: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=smith-005cal Tyler Jones (former Twin!): http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=jones-002tyl Hoby Milner: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=milner001hob Jones is actually slightly older than Tonkin...
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I too would have liked more interesting options acquired this winter. But not much more you could do with this group, right now. Given their past usage of Tonkin, I don't think they will hesitate to drop him when a better option comes along, so that's good. In the meantime, might as well roll with him again.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    To get his 2016 line up to a .260 AVG, Sano would need to add 10 hits, for a resulting BABIP of .371. That K rate is going to have to come down for that average to go up, and it doesn't look like he's made any progress toward that goal so far this spring. (Although to be fair, leaguewide AVG is down about 15 points in the last 10 years -- .259 was the MLB non-pitcher average last year. Maybe there's not so much shame in a lower average, although it would cap his upside at "good hitter" rather than "great hitter")
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Mauer moved back to Minnesota in 2013 after the birth of his daughters: http://www.twincities.com/2016/02/16/fatherhood-has-grounded-joe-mauer-but-twins-first-baseman-anxious-to-win/
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    But at this point, the Twins will pretty much have to pay free agent market rate to extend him. Especially if he continues to produce. They could actually trade him, collect the prospect(s), and then re-sign him after 2018 if they are willing to pay the price to extend him. Whatever they might save in an extension now (assuming he'd be willing at all to accept a discount, which is not clear), they'd probably more than make up in the prospects acquired and in the extra ~2 years to evaluate Dozier.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    But we don't have Dozier for the next 4-5 years -- only 2. And in this hypothetical midseason trade, only 1.5 years, and only 1 with any chance of contention (assuming we'd already be out of contention to trade him midseason this year). Also, judging by your .786 OPS prediction for 2017 Dozier, it would appear that circa 2012 Pedroia, Cano, and Kinsler would be a different class of player, no? A .786 OPS in 2017 would easily be the second-best of Dozier's career to date. A .786 OPS in 2012 would have represented a career low for Pedroia or Kinsler. Cano at that point had 5 seasons clearly better too, including the previous 3 in a row. I agree that any trade return wouldn't be a sure thing, but it wouldn't be quite so hard as you suggest to match Dozier's expected value under his remaining contract. Heck, one of the examples of a bad return you cited (Jarrod Parker) actually put up 5.7 bWAR in 2 seasons for league minimum salary -- obviously not ideal but not a disastrous return on 1-2 years of Dozier either. Zach Wheeler might still return some cheap production too. Montgomery as well, although it will be harder if he is relegated to a bullpen role. Again, that's not the outcome you target with a Dozier trade, but that kind of outcome can still help balance the ledger.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't have a dog in this particular fight, but I suspect the Dodgers have innings concerns about Urias which would not apply to Berrios.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Gotta believe that SI is trolling baseball fans with this piece...
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    If Mauer starts in a platoon role and hits well -- what are the odds that Molitor would remove the platoon restrictions and we'd see his numbers fall?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting that the one opening day start that Mauer missed was in 2009.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    So Dozier's rookie season struggles, when he never batted leadoff, is going to be used as evidence that he's just not as productive outside the leadoff spot? Also, RBIs is a poor measure of anything meaningful. It is a counting stat. You would want to look at opportunities and how many he converted -- after all, you wouldn't want to judge Dozier as a less productive hitter down in the order if it was a function of batting behind worse hitters.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    A single season split (like PA with men on base, etc.) is, by definition, a subset of a single season.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, if you need a fresh arm at some point, call up Wimmers to pair with Haley. I don't care. But it shouldn't be plan A. If they didn't like Tonkin, they've had all offseason to find a better project on which to invest that roster spot. I'll be disappointed if the best they could manage was Wimmers, a guy who cleared waivers himself at the beginning of the offseason despite having all 3 options remaining.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Wimmers can be autocorrected to Winners, so I guess that is a point in his favor.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt. I don't have any great affinity for Tonkin anymore, and I am fine if the team wants to cut him now. I just don't want to see him replaced with a redundant, low-upside mop-up guy. That would lead me to question the new FO, not about Tonkin, but about an obviously substandard allocation of roster spots. This team shouldn't be trotting out Haley AND Wimmers in its opening day bullpen, regardless of how they feel about Tonkin.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair, although I think there are some combo's here that would be cause to question them. Keeping both Wimmers and Haley would be one of those -- that's just too much of a roster investment in low-upside mop-up work for my tastes.
×
×
  • Create New...