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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct, Jay can still absolutely be a good reliever. I do agree with Cody, though, that based on his record and profile, his ceiling is likely more Glen Perkins than the Miller/Chapman names thrown around.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Just looking at the current closers in MLB: Kimbrel, Holland, Robertson, Cody Allen, Kelvin Herrera, Jansen, Melancon, Edwin Diaz, Osuna, Seung Hwan Oh, AJ Ramos, Street, and K-Rod were never starters in AAA (and often never starters at all). http://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/REcloserorgchart/closer-depth-chart
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to take this off track, but I think this is a mischaracterization. I don't know of any "saber" argument that bullpens aren't important. They may have argued that the save stat isn't particularly important, nor is limiting good relievers to 1 inning appearances, but I don't think there has ever been a general "saber" argument against the importance of bullpens in general.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Dozier was better with the bases empty in 2016, but a subset of a single season is such a small sample it is pretty meaningless. He was also poor in high leverage situations in 2016, but you wouldn't suggest pinch hitting for him because of that, would you? You wouldn't use single season platoon splits to make him a platoon player, would you? That's basically what you are doing by using his 2016 bases empty split to justify batting him leadoff.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    At +34 PA for the season, with his 2016 rates, Dozier would hit 2 extra HR, 2 other XBH, and 8 more times reaching first, while batting leadoff. All more likely with no one on base. At +81 PA with men on base, it would add baserunners to 5 solo HR, 5 other XBH, and 18 more times reaching first. It seems pretty evident which is the bigger contributor to team run scoring, no?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins leadoff batters had 34 more PA than Twins #3 batters last year. Which is worth more? +1 total PA every 5 games (likely with no one on base) or +1 PA with men on base every other game If you've got a ton of great hitters in your lineup, it probably doesn't matter. Likewise if Dozier was surrounded entirely by scrubs, maybe it doesn't matter so much. But the Twins have some very strong OBP guys in Mauer and Grossman, with hopefully more to join them soon. And some sizable question marks in their projected middle of the order bats (Sano, Park, etc.). And a few terrible OBP guys at the bottom of the lineup. Seems very wasteful to bat Dozier ahead of the best OBPs, and behind the worst OBPs, without a compelling reason.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Do you want your best HR hitter hitting behind Castro/Gimenez, Escobar/Santana, and whoever else they stick at the bottom of the lineup? (For 10 games this season, we will even have a pitcher batting.) Or would you rather have them hitting behind Mauer, Grossman, Polanco, etc.? Also, Dozier's 2016 numbers are skewed because he only batted leadoff slightly less than half the time. For a better comparison, look at Detroit -- they had a pretty steady lineup last year. Conveniently, their regular leadoff hitter Kinsler and regular number 3 hitter Cabrera each had 679 total PA, but Cabrera had 81 more PA with men on base. Basically every other game he was coming up an extra time with men on, as compared to the leadoff spot in the lineup. Is that an advantage worth flushing away, for uncertain player comfort? (As has been pointed out in this thread, no matter what he says about preferring the leadoff spot, Dozier's numbers in the cleanup spot were great last year.) Unless your lineup is overflowing with talent, I don't think so.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd rather give Tonkin another shot than drop him to put Wimmers back on the 40-man. Especially with Haley around to do long relief. Or use the spot for some other team's waiver casualty.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Harris is older, but I think he is definitively better than Pressly, no? I don't necessarily see this as a priority.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. Seems light considering both were elite prospects pretty recently. Tim Anderson just got slightly better than that, and he is a year behind Sano and Buxton in service time. In any case, I definitely support having the conversation, and now would be the time to pursue it, when they are both still 2 seasons away from arbitration.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Not opposed, but what terms are we talking here? I'll note that Falvey and Levine's former clubs just inked extensions with Jose Ramirez and Rougned Odor respectively and I'm not a fan of either one.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    If one is "optomistic" (sic) about this rotation, perhaps one needs to see an optometrist.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Grossman still has 4 years of team control (he is still pre-arb this year). Pat Light himself cleared waivers not long ago, and more similar players will probably hit waivers very soon. No sense giving away Grossman yet to get an asset you otherwise could probably get for free.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Tonkin is out of options. Wimmers has options, but he is not on the 40-man roster, he is on a minor league deal, so he can be assigned to the minors this season without being optioned or clearing waivers. Chargois is on the 40-man but of course he has options left.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, JR Graham actually had a similar spring 2 years ago: Haley, 2017: 7 G, 10.2 IP, 15 H, 10 R, 7.59 ERA, 3 BB, 11 K, .333 AVG, 1.69 WHIP Graham, 2015: 10 G, 14 IP, 18 H, 10 R, 5.79 ERA, 6 BB, 7 K, .333 AVG, 1.71 WHIP
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    No.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    10 hits in 23 AB: http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=cin#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting&game_type='S'&season=2017&season_type=ANY&league_code='MLB'&sectionType=sp&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1490221530745&sortColumn=ab&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Although Turner has 10 hits in 23 AB this spring! I guess if a team isn't set at backup, they might put in a claim on him.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, first he would pass through waivers, so another team could select him. But he would retain Rule 5 restrictions so that is unlikely (but not impossible, the Twins did that with Erik Komatsu a few years ago). A return to the Twins would be the most likely. Next most likely would be the two sides working out a trade (like the Twins did with Scott Diamond a few years ago too).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    After those out-of-options players, I'd guess Haley and Perkins are the next most likely targets.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Marco Hernandez has two option years remaining. He was added to the Red Sox 40-man in Nov. 2015, so 2016 was his first option year. Here's a list of out of options guys -- it obviously includes a lot of players who have zero risk of hitting waivers this spring (Zach Britton!) but it is a good reference point: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/03/out-of-options-2017.html
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Santana, Adrianza, and Tonkin are all out of options, so it any of them don't make the 25-man roster, they have to be dropped from the 40-man anyway. I suspect you will get at least one drop from that group to roster Gimenez.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, that was Opening Day Starter Livan (On a Dream) Hernandez! If he was ever in a "backend competition" that spring, it probably related to the size of his posterior.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    4th option year is same as all others. The Twins are free to option and recall Vargas as many times as they wish this season.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Rosario did in fact improve his K rate significantly after moving to the pen in 2016. (It was pretty abysmal as a starter.)
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