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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't let the 34 HR fool you, though -- Napoli has looked pretty toasty the last 2 years. Overall, he's not appreciably different than Mauer or Grossman, before even considering Park and Vargas.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the old front office did this too, they bid on Garza and Ervin Santana (the first time), they landed Kendrys Morales late, etc. They still have to be good moves, and in this case, signing Napoli would not have been a good move.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Something like this? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0otYijxNbc
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd be pretty surprised if they paid Santiago $8 mil to open the season in the bullpen. He hasn't opened a season in the pen since 2013, his first full MLB season.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Hopefully money was not the hold-up in your situation.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Gimenez might be 4th on the depth chart for starting catcher, but signs suggest he is 1st on the depth chart for backup catcher.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Sano's elbow problem was diagnosed in October 2013 too, and he didn't have surgery until March 2014.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    On the Vogelsong topic, it does look like he made the Pirates as a reliever/spot starter out of spring training last year, so I guess there is hope he doesn't immediately claim a rotation spot. When he got hit in the face on May 23rd, it was only his second start of the year. He did come back to start exclusively down the stretch, though. But even if he begins in the pen, I think the team will be tempted to switch him and May at the first sign of trouble, or move Vogelsong into the first in-season rotation vacancy rather than Berrios.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't endorse it, but Vogelsong making the team has been my prediction for awhile. And I am worried about how that may affect May and Berrios -- are they going to get a real shot/leash in the early going?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to this being a Vegas line rather than a prediction, it's also worth noting that few people try to project/predict outliers, at least not in a systematic way (i.e. projecting win totals for all 30 teams, rather than an isolated prediction like "the Padres will lose 105 games this year"). Very, very few teams will ever get projected or predicted to lose 103 games, but that doesn't mean projections/predictions are inherently bad/incorrect/worthless. I'd probably judge them more on general contention/non-contention buckets -- i.e. if the Twins are projected to finish with the 3rd worst record in the league, well out of contention, and they actually finish with the worst record in the league, well out of contention, I don't think that's a failure of the projection system, even if their projected win total was, say, 70 and their actual win total was 59.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Here you go!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Wouldn't a league average performance from Ervin Santana actually count as a step back, relative to 2017?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Mark Portugal?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Now that he is off the 40-man roster, Park's not just competing against the other 1B/DH guys in camp, though -- he's competing will all of the other non-roster guys. Breslow and Vogelsong will probably make strong cases based on our pitching and their opt-outs. Gimenez could make a case for backup catcher, especially if they want Murphy and Garver to get more frequent reps in AAA. So I still think Park is ticketed to Rochester to open the season, almost regardless of what transpires this spring.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    For his minor league career, Santana has a .123 ISO and a .330 BABIP. Putting aside his crazy good 2014 and his crazy bad 2015, I'd say his MLB career .113 ISO and .346 BABIP are about what we should expect. And that has only produced an 86 wRC+. Barring superlative defense, that's not particularly valuable, especially now that he's out of options and is very likely to qualify for arbitration next winter. Sometimes young hitters can grow as hitters, of course, but there isn't really any evidence of that for Santana. His 2014 MLB success was driven by BABIP and mostly 2B/3B power, as was most of his small sample 2015 AAA success too, and he failed to sustain either.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Tom: did there appear to be any kind of bag or outside food/beverage policy? I know Vikings games are super-restrictive in that regard, but I am guessing college baseball games are not?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    And I don't think any of those sections are even open for these games! Maybe they are still waiting to file out after a monster truck show?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    By elite, I mean elite prospect. That would be a pretty huge jump from where he is now. Still possible, but hard to project.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    330, 400, 305
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I love this time of year. "Don't count out (insert name of player you can almost certainly count out)" Paulsen is 29 years old, career 89 wRC+ in over 500 MLB PAs, and 105 and 102 in his last 2 AAA seasons. His only 2 notably above average seasons in his pro career were both in the PCL with .360+ BABIPs. And his minor league peak was 133 wRC+ -- by comparison, Vargas's *lowest* figure since rookie league is 128. Oh, and no defensive value. Should be a fine Rochester guy, but the Twins would be nuts to put him on the MLB roster this April, barring some perfect storm of injuries.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    300 innings is like 25% of a season. Hard to read too much into that. The exact same "Twins need a defender, and who cares about the 9 hitter" argument was trotted out for Florimon too. There are MLB players who could make a compelling case for that working out, but most waiver wire fodder is not that kind of player.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I found this to be a pretty good summary of the Twins position battles this spring: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/02/camp-battles-minnesota-twins.html
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    No. It just a realistic assessment of his career to date. Do you have a source that suggests his realistic upside is higher?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Because his realistic upside at his point is something like Florimon? Teams generally don't start those guys unless they are desperate.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, for those that don't like the normal $11 cost of adult admission, next weekend is the DQ Classic and you can get 4 tickets for $20 with this voucher: https://www.mygophersports.com/ArticleMedia/Files/Baseball2017DQClassic4-PackVoucher.pdf And if you know any U of M faculty/staff, March 5 they can get 2 free tickets: https://www.mygophersports.com/Online/default.asp?BOparam::WScontent::loadArticle::permalink=faculty-staff&BOparam::WScontent::loadArticle::context_id=
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