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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Didn't he sign before Breslow, who is pretty much a lock for the roster? I am pretty sure Vogelsong had a chance here but blew it.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if it was that long of a shot, had Vogelsong performed acceptably this spring. He obviously didn't and pretty much forced this decision, no matter what the Twins were once planning. (Hopefully Mejia helped force the decision too!)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The Karma Chameleon could join the mascot race!
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    His entrance music could be "I'm a Real Venezuelan" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guG9cVs3ms4
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe it was a prediction about their 2017 record?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    We had an article not long ago that quoted Monitor, in no uncertain terms, that the first 4 starters were set and they included Santiago. This article includes no direct quotes saying that Santiago's spot is in jeopardy. As far as being from "someone with access" I was expecting Berardino but I see the byline is Brian Murphy -- I am not familiar with his work. In any case, I pretty much won't believe that Santiago's spot is in jeopardy until I see a direct quote from someone in the org saying so.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnSccAokV3c
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    It can be a darn catchy slogan, though! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKvNtAVZyOc
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, a week ago, it looked like May was going to be the 5th starter and Vogelsong would be in the pen. That was likely the FO's plan and they presumably already had roster moves in mind to make it happen. For those that want Vogelsong kept around as extra reinforcement, why is the bullpen seemingly no longer an option? They probably don't need May's spot just to keep Vogelsong around in some capacity. If Mejia or whoever can win the 5th starter job, Vogelsong can still stick around the pen just in case. I wouldn't be crazy about it (he would mostly be redundant with Haley) but I wouldn't object as strongly as I do to the idea of a starting spot being his to lose.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    So the Kubel and Bartlett reunion tour was just fine because neither finished the season? You'd be fine with optioning Buxton and starting Drew Stubbs in CF under the assumption he is not allowed to finish the year? I get that sometimes circumstances force you to start someone you know isn't a long term option at a position. I just don't think we are anywhere near those circumstances here. We've got enough resources to have an open competition for that 5th starter spot.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    And I am plenty willing to cut the new front office some slack. I'm not railing against Castro, Gimenez, Belisle, and Breslow. But when we get down to the level (and up to the age) of Vogelsong, the idea that he's part of some cunning master plan feels a little too much like "magic beans."
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    We all know you need more than 5 starters on your depth chart. But it shouldn't be ignored that the top 5 spots are pretty important at any given time because those are the only ones that can perform and/or learn at the MLB level at that moment. And anyway, from your own admission, even after May's injury, the Twins SP depth chart could reasonably be considered to already be 7 deep without Vogelsong. (I might add Haley to make it 7.5) Is it worth it, to give away one of the 5 most important and valuable spots, to a player with admittedly almost no upside or future, just to push the total length of the April depth chart from 7 to 8? Or 7.5 to 8.5? That doesn't sound like a good trade-off to me. Also, while posters here have been quick to point out that the opening day starting 5 will not be the starting 5 throughout the season, the SP depth chart doesn't necessarily have to contract during the season either. While there will be some inevitable DL stints and such, Brock has been mentioning our AA SP prospects who could rise, and I might add a guy like Wheeler might be worth a look as much as Vogelsong with another solid campaign. Plus we saw the Angels turn one Hector Santiago into two MLB starters by season's end last year, we've seen guys like Tommy Milone go unclaimed in midseason waivers, and we also will have top waiver priority through April (but hopefully not beyond that ). All opportunities to help offset any inevitable midseason rotation losses.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    The difference in the ERAs you quoted was 1.49, over 9 innings. Over an optimistic 6 inning start, the difference would be 1 run. Is that a blowout meltdown? Now put those figures into your own stated goal of a short term player "buying some time for Berrios at AAA" and whatever difference to the Twins is pretty inconsequential.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    There is no significant practical difference between those ERAs if your stated goal is buying a few weeks more development time for a pitcher in the minor leagues. Frankly, looking to do that with a rotation spot well before the end of spring training is probably the best path toward more losing. If there were zero young guys ready for a look in the 5th starter spot, we should have been on the phone to add Jason Hammel, Travis Wood, or even Doug Fister who is still out there. Edit: not saying I necessarily endorse adding one of those guys, but it makes more sense than Vogelsong. If Vogelsong's chief selling point is that is he is bad enough that we will be fully prepared to cut him later, we shouldn't be penciling him into a rotation spot.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Pat Dean could have bought Berrios a few more weeks in the minors, just the same as Vogelsong. And I don't want this team aiming to "buy some minor league time for the youngsters" with the 5th starter spot right now, not with 4 veterans locked into the first 4 spots and 4 young starters with solid AAA experience ready to compete for that last spot. I want am open competition. If Vogelsong is in that competition and happens to win it, fine, but that's not the assumption behind Brandon's roster projection here. The assumption is that it is Vogelsong's spot to lose at this point, and I don't like that at all.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    So... when we're expected to compete, obviously we have to prefer vets to youngsters because the young guys just haven't been tested enough. But when we're not expected to compete, we STILL have to prefer vets to youngsters to protect them for future seasons? Is there any time when we could prefer a youngster over a vet?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, this isn't clear to me, from the pro-Vogelsong crowd. I understand that sometimes you need a lousy veteran. Got a bunch of young guys? Leave one spot for a vet, sure. Got an open spot and only one young option to fill it? Let the vet start until you're more comfortable moving the young guy up, okay. But those scenarios don't seem to apply to the Twins here -- we've got 4 vets guaranteed rotation jobs already, and ~4 young guys with the experience to realistically break camp in the 5th spot (even if it's more of an evaluation opportunity than a long-term commitment). We all seem to agree that Vogelsong has very little chance of being a positive MLB contributor. And he has virtually zero chance of becoming a trade asset. What does his presence offer the 2017 Twins?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. Yes, I get that from you. But a lot of others seem to be personally endorsing Vogelsong.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    While not five Vogelsongs, the projected rotation here does include 5 veterans which seems a bit overkill. There are enough close MLB arms that we should be comfortable letting one of them win the 5th starter spot, even if it's not Berrios or even Duffey right away.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    If the Twins don't roster him, I think Vogelsong would still opt out, but he could just come back to us on another minor league deal with a later opt out date. Without looking at the projected AAA rotation, I'd probably be open to that.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, this is fair. I don't think Vogelsong has a meaningfully better chance of 2017 success than, say, Jason Wheeler. I mean, Vogelsong might put up an 85 ERA+ and Wheeler a 70, but in the brief time we'd want either to be in the 2017 MLB rotation, it's not a meaningful difference.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Haley doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of making the roster? Since when? As a Rule 5'er, I thought he had the inside track on a bullpen spot. I agree he probably doesn't stand much of a chance at the rotation, but if the objective is to give someone else innings while Berrios percolates a bit more in AAA, his name should probably be in the mix -- he's not a super-raw Rule 5 guy, he spent over half the 2016 starting in AAA and doing fairly well. And why shouldn't Mejia have a chance at the fifth starter spot? He's got AAA experience too and even a MLB cup of coffee.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I suspect some folks here are confused about Ryan Vogelsong too. Vogelsong is not a run of the mill veteran starter like Santiago, or Hughes, or even Milone, etc. Vogelsong is worse than that. His last 4 seasons, by ERA+: 2013: 60 2014: 86 2015: 82 2016: 87 Those last two years also include some relief work. And he's on a minor league deal, and he turns 40 in July. I can't see how anyone could be cool with making a bullpen spot his to lose, considering he'd be redundant in the pen with Haley. And now we're basically upgrading it to a rotation spot to lose? Not a bench spot, not a back of the bullpen spot, but a starting rotation spot? Are we out of our minds?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Mejia is not a Pat Dean type. And handing a spot to Ryan Vogelsong seems like a pretty steep price to pay for this mildly reducing your chances of needing a "Pat Dean type" midseason. If you want to give Vogelsong a chance at winning the job in spring training, alongside Mejia, Berrios, Duffey, and maybe even Haley, that's fine. But according to Nick Nelson, a roster spot has been Vogelsong's to lose since the day he signed his minor league contract. And now it sounds like with May's injury, the last rotation spot is his to lose too. I'm not sure how that is defensible.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt, and Perkins may very well not return until June. But I would be very surprised at this point if they took away even the possibility of him returning before June 1st. I think they would just cut a guy like O'Rourke before doing that.
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