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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    But, they are different things. Like takeout vs delivery. Radio is like takeout because it's already there in the air, and the customer just needs to pick it up. Online is more like delivery because the content creator has to deliver the stream directly to you. Obviously audio stream bandwidth is a drop in the bucket these days, but maybe it's the principle from their perspective too.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder what the current radio deal is like, especially for affiliates. I know it was a big deal when the Twins moved from WCCO to KSTP back in 2006-2007 that the Twins were keeping in-game ad revenue, as well as getting money from KSTP. Now they have it on their own radio network, 96.3, but I don't know what the affiliate deals are like in the Twins radio network. It could be that the Twins don't want to upset the apple cart with the affiliates, as it might still be a good means of promotion for them (thinking winter caravan as well as the daily broadcasts in season).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Are you honestly going to be making any significantly different entertainment choices because Gameday Audio is $20 instead of free? You've already stated that MLB.TV at $113 is "stupid expensive" when it's generally regarded as a pretty good value for out-of-market viewers, so it seems doubtful that MLB would make much money on you anyway, regardless of whether they extended a free online radio olive branch. And I'm not criticizing you -- I am the same kind of frugal fan. But I understand that modern sports leagues are never going to have to cater to me to be successful.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    NFL games are generally on free over the air TV, but they don't let you stream them at all. Short-sighted business decision? I think MLB, especially the media arm, is doing well enough to earn some benefit of the doubt about their strategy here. It's not like my hometown podunk newspaper, in the year 2017, allowing zero online access beyond headlines for non-subscribers, which is clearly a strategy that is dooming them to failure and irrelevance in the modern world. MLB making Gameday Audio free might generate a little goodwill among fans, but probably concentrated among diehards anyway -- I think most folks who seek out a radio broadcast in 2017 are probably in the diehard group! And among out-of-market diehards, there is already the great deal of MLB.TV which supercedes Gameday Audio, and in-market diehards can already get the broadcasts over the air without much effort. If they think such a free offering might upset a few local affiliates, it might not be worth it for those modest benefits. Sure, I'd love to have more free options too, but let's not pretend that it's a clear business imperative for MLB. I'm just cheap.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't sit down and watch full games either, but if you check the score and it looks interesting, flip it on. If the Twins game is a stinker but another one is close, especially late in the season, you can flip on that one instead. Radio -- obviously the car is a key spot! But I suspect most people still have a stereo in their house with a radio function. Also some smartphones have FM radio capability.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    From that link above, here are waiver claims since the 2016 season ended who have appeared in MLB in 2017: Evan Marshall, RP, Seattle Nick Franklin, utility, Milwaukee Jumbo Diaz, RP, Tampa Scooter Gennett*, 2B, Reds Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Milwaukee Zach Lee, P, Padres Blake Parker, RP, Angels James Pazos, RP, Mariners Dominic Leone, RP, Blue Jays Jeremy Hazelbaker, OF, Arizona Nori Aoki*, OF, Astros Arismedy Alcantra, utility, Reds Steve Selsky, OF, Red Sox Willy Garcia, OF, White Sox Jake Esch, P, Padres A few others might now be usefully stashed on the DL or in AAA too. Adrianza might qualify for that with the Twins, and David Rollins with the Cubs. * Aoki was a bit of a special case as well, as the Astros tendered him a $5.5 mil deal to avoid arbitration. Gennett also carried a $2.53 mil salary when claimed.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Fox Sports MLB Transactions site seems like the best source. You can narrow it down by month/year, team, transaction type, etc. http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/transactions?year=2017&month=4&type=14 It's not perfect because I think it is only registering guys with MLB experience. So it doesn't have the various Adam Brett Walker claims, for example...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I was hoping for some more activity too, even if it was just taking a couple fliers. But looking at the Phillies from 2015-2016, they didn't do much with their waiver priority either. They claimed Peter Bourjos in December 2015 and something called Bobby LaFromboise in January 2016. Diamondbacks from 2014-2015 don't appear to have made any waiver claims with their top priority, although that was a now-ousted management team, no? The Astros were much more active, although ultimately didn't wind up with too much. They did get Collin McHugh with their waiver priority, but not much else over the course of several seasons. (They also got Will Harris when they only had 4th priority after the 2014 season.)
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Even Murphy's AAA numbers with the Yankees weren't that bad, though. Eyeballing it, he was around a .295 BABIP and a .157 ISO over 453 PA across two seasons in AAA for the Yankees, in his age 22-23 seasons. That has nothing to do with Yankee Stadium. Since he came to Minnesota, .175 BABIP and .073 ISO in MLB, and .264 BABIP and .082 ISO in AAA, turning 26 next month.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously it's still a very small sample, but it is interesting that his current run isn't being driven by BABIP. Actually his BABIP so far this year is a very low .235. Compared to those two stretches you reference, where his BABIPs were .400 and .611, respectively. Yeah, he won't keep walking at a 25% clip or posting an ISO of .455 either, but it's worth noting he didn't just rack up a few extra singles. FWW, from August 1st until the end of the season last year, Hicks had a 105 wRC+ on a league-average .300 BABIP too. His big Twins month (July 2015) was a .365 BABIP. Hicks and Murphy were both useful hitters in limited samples prior to the trade, and both got bit by the low BABIP and low ISO bugs immediately after the trade, but Hicks seems to have recovered after a few months while Murphy has not. Not that it is necessarily permanent for Hicks, but if he can alternate good performances and poor ones, that can still be a useful player and a step above Murphy currently.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Regardless of the Hicks side of the equation... what the heck happened to Murphy? Off to a 1-for-15 start at AAA now too. Only 3 K's, but he's become a low-BABIP machine since coming to Minnesota. Even in his AAA stint last year, he only had a .274 BABIP en route to a 72 wRC+. That's below what many were saying was his MLB floor (~85 wRC+) when we acquired him.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not riding Dave's Aaron Hicks hype train, but this isn't quite right either. Sano and Kepler were not ready in October 2015, and Sano should have never been moved to the OF. And the Twins were pretty much ready to jettison Arcia at that point, and we all know the deficiencies of Danny Santana. They didn't "have" to trade Hicks. That said, I don't necessarily think it was a bad trade to make.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Off-topic, but Kepler has a 4th option this year, like Vargas, if we want to use it. Back to the topic, obviously we wouldn't have to option anyone just to keep a 4th outfielder other than Santana. We would just lose Santana.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    If you are a baseball fan, the TV subscription is a fine deal at $113. (Watch for it on sale at half-price in May too.) And if you are not subject to many blackouts, or you find a way around them (*cough* Ad-Free Time *cough*), it is almost certainly the best deal in all of sports. Students/military can get 35% off too (might also extend to teachers, at least they use id.me for verification which also has a teacher group).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Back when the Wolves were relevant. I remember listening free online, but that was awhile ago! I think it is relevant that baseball is a far better radio sport than hockey. That is why we are interested in the topic, and the same reason MLB and broadcasters want to protect their radio broadcast rights. $20 for the season is basically the bare minimum they can charge and tell affiliates they are still the exclusive home of free broadcasts. I'm not sure why it is being portrayed as some great expensive barrier.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    $20 for the season is $3 per month. That causes you to gasp? That is costing an arm and a leg? Maybe that is the value of Ben Revere's arm and Jim Thome's leg. Plus the $20 gets you all the radio broadcasts around the league. Was better with Vin Scully around but there are still some other announcers worth checking out, and Spanish broadcasts are always fun. Opposing team broadcasts are a nice change of pace too. I think the NHL and NBA need to offer their radio broadcasts free because their sports kind of suck on the radio, and their schedules are so unpredictable. Those broadcasts are worth much less to stations and advertisers. Meanwhile, baseball is awesome on radio, and played on a consistent schedule, almost daily for 6 months.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins radio advertising is pretty local. I don't know that those advertisers are going to pay for online broadcasts which will primarily be going to scattered users and places out of state. I don't think $20 is that much for the package. And of course there are ways to make a full MLB.TV sub more useful in-market too... and it is usually half-price by mid-May.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Gameday was all messed up for me yesterday. It actually froze just before the grand slam, and repeated attempts to reload actually showed weird messed up game states (scoreless in the 2nd inning with no Dozier leadoff HR, etc.). It wouldn't surprise me if some of the data is still jumbled in there. EDIT: And now I see this was brought up by others too!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    What I meant was, MLB just changed the rule (increasing the age requirement to 25) knowing full well of Otani and his situation. I don't think they are going to let Otani poke a loophole through their brand-new rule. And changing the rule might be difficult, considering they just adopted it and the CBA won't be up for re-negotiation for a few more years. (And of course, Otani isn't a surprise to them -- everybody knew about Otani when this new rule was put in place -- so it's not clear they'd even want to change it. Keeping Otani out until he is 25 seems to be exactly what they were trying to do, for whatever reason.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    As an under 25 player, Otani would not be negotiating a FA deal like Cespedes and others did. He will be negotiating a bonus on the standard amateur player contract. But if Otani waits just 1.5 years from this upcoming winter (he turns 25 in July 2019), he will be a complete FA and not subject to arb or pre-arb years of control (or at least, he can negotiate those things away in his FA contract). It would be exceedingly odd for him to sign next winter and lock himself into 6 years of team control at pre-arb and arb prices for a very low capped bonus. He would lose a ton of bargaining power, not just with the capped bonus, but also no chance of hitting the open market for 6-7 years. Otani wouldn't hit FA until almost age 30 if he signed next winter, or almost age 31 if a team gave him the Kris Bryant treatment for an extra year of control. And even if he got a big extension in that time, its value will be depressed because he won't be negotiating on the open market, but just with the one team that owns his rights. I am sure there will be a lot of talk, but I would be surprised if Otani gave away all that leverage just to come stateside ~18 months earlier.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Otani isn't a new phenomenon -- he's been around for a few years, and they just changed the rules in the latest CBA. There has been zero precedent of a player signing a mega-contract within a year of his initial drafting/signing. A few players have signed relatively cheap arb buyout extensions in the first year of MLB service, but that is a very different thing. If Otani wants to sign an Evan Longoria deal early in his career, that's fine. But he probably can't get a Tanaka deal next year. There's no weird line in the sand here, a mega-contract for Otani within a year of his initial signing would be an obvious attempt to circumvent the rules they just set up with full knowledge of Otani's situation.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB and the commissioner have pretty wide-ranging power in this regard. I highly doubt they would let Otani sign a FA-like contract "extension" within a year or two of his initial contract. Or if they did allow it, it would come with some hefty punishments for the team.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, at the time, there were no restrictions on draft spending, so there was nothing the Nationals would have been circumventing by signing Strasburg to an extension there. Keep in mind, if Otani signs under age 25, he's locked into the whole system -- not just the bonus limit, but 2-3 years of MLB service until arbitration, 6 years until FA. If a team signed him to an "extension" during those early seasons that seemed to ignore the incredible leverage that teams hold, it would be exceedingly obvious. There would really be no way to get Otani a mega-deal for at least 2-3 seasons.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, Bradley's really poor performance seems to be limited to the calendar year 2014. I wonder if there wasn't some injury thing going on with him? Not only was he terrible in the majors that year, he was uncharacteristically bad in AAA too (.519 OPS, 26% K-rate). Even in that season of 2014, Bradley was chugging along with a bad-but-not-unprecedented 76 season wRC+ in late July before going into that tailspin which continued into AAA. But he was back to his normal self to open the 2015 season in AAA and later in the majors.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt that Bradley had a tough start, but his K rate was better than Buxton's, his walk rate was roughly league average, his BABIP was below average, and his ISO was really, really low. That's a more traditional poor career start for a player -- you would expect the BABIP to come back to average, and you'd expect some power to develop too. Buxton is weird because his power and BABIP have been pretty good overall in his time in MLB. But he is striking out at such an insanely high rate. Of course, he's had a couple stretches where the power and BABIP escape him too. Results-wise, Bradley late July into August 2014 was about as lost as Buxton today, though. He had a 1-for-36 stretch with 18 K's, although outside of that stretch he seemed to control his K's better than Buxton.
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