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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't need to know that Tonkin had 6 goose egg opportunities, in 65 total appearances, to know that he was a low-leverage reliever last year. I could just look at his average game-entering leverage index of 0.80. The goose egg sounds more useful than the save stat, no doubt. But the save stat isn't very useful at all. I think the bar should be set higher for its potential replacement.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you're looking at the wrong column or something? Familia had a 1.67 gmLI last year (game-entering leverage index), pretty comparable to Corbett's 1.73: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/familje01.shtml
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    He's still subject to the old CBA rules with IFA's, though. Yankees and Dodgers both capped at $300k per player right now. If he's determined to sign before July 2nd, that pretty much rules out the Yankees, Dodgers, D-backs, Angels, Rays, Red Sox, Cubs, Giants and Royals. And makes it most likely the A’s, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres or Reds land him, as they have all already exceeded their bonus pool in the current signing period. Although a club like the rumored White Sox could decide to go over their pool too. They'd have to decide whether it's more important to take advantage of this last chance to go big to get a young IFA, or if they want to stay flexible after the new hard cap takes effect. Come July 2nd, nobody is going to be able to spend big on young IFA, so the White Sox and others will stand a decent chance at landing top talents, as long at they're not limited to the $300k.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually WPA/LI would be better, because it would account for leverage. Rogers and O'Rourke were racking up their WPA in a lot of lower-leverage situations. Here are 2016 Twins relievers ranked by WPA/LI: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=12,d Of course, it's probably not all that different of a ranking from RA9, or better yet for relievers, RA9 plus inherited runners.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    WPA/LI is better, and addresses many of your concerns. I'd say it's no different than citing ERA or OBP/SLG. All stats need some context. Goose/Broken eggs don't appear to be frequent enough for most pitchers to be terribly useful either. Your Tonkin example is nice, but according to Jeremy's article, that sample threshold was reached by just two Twins pitchers last year. How useful is it to know that Tonkin was 5-for-6? Forget WPA/LI -- is this thing telling us much that ERA and IP isn't already telling us?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I am sure there was some more/better info and video later, but I'm not sure it's that huge of a difference in modern MLB. It might be a factor, but it might be a fairly minor one compared to the larger simple variances in player's approach/execution.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    The Yankees still can't give him more the $300k before July 2nd, as a result of exceeding their bonus pool in the 2014-2015 period. Same for the D-backs, Angels, Rays, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Royals. After July 2nd, the Yankees can give him up to $4.75 mil. But no team could give him more than $5.75 mil at that point, and 10 teams will still be capped at $300k for any single player: the aforementioned Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Royals, plus the A’s, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres and Reds: http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2017-18-international-bonus-pools/ I'd guess that puts the A’s, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres and Reds as the favorites to land Robert before July 2nd, since they have already exceeded their 2016-2017 pools and would face no further penalties for spending big on Robert (other than the tax). BA has apparently linked him to the White Sox previously -- but presumably they'd have to go over their pool to sign him.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if I'd say he came out of nowhere. It's not like he skipped the upper minors or came straight from Cuba or Japan. His worst start that year was his MLB debut. His last two starts that year were against teams he previously faced, and he did just fine. Neither of those facts fit neatly into a "lack of scouting report" theory. He also started 2016 with 4 solid starts in MLB, 3 of which came against teams he previously faced in 2015 (with 2 of those coming against the teams he faced twice in 2015). It's worth noting that Duffey was dealing in 2015, minors and majors, to an extent that he had never done previously or since. Even before his MLB debut, his 2015 minor league marks of 0.1 HR/9, 7.8 H/9, and 8.0 K/9 were all career bests. I suspect that, like many other players, he has difficulty executing and repeating his best approach. I'd like to see him get a bit more of a chance to try as a starter, although I am certainly not closing the book on him in relief -- he's 26 years old with 2 option years left, there is plenty of time to get back to a relief role if need be.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really, the roster expansion is rarely a stark dividing line for most teams and positions. Duffey faced pretty much regular lineups over his 10 starts that year.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd guess this stat is better than saves/holds, but it still feels pretty arbitrary and limited, and even more complex. If we don't really care about calculating it in real-time, why not just use WPA or WPA/LI? Or even Fangraphs' Shutdowns and Meltdowns?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    You don't need to focus on the last 3 games to be concerned about Pressly. His whole career body of work, when taking into account leverage and peripherals too, is suggesting average-ish bullpen arm rather than shutdown stopper, which is a role many had him pegged for on this team (including Molitor?).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. Spot start, as the Angels want to give their starters each an extra day of rest.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Sid gets by with a little help from his (close personal) friends.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Santiago could continue to out-perform his FIP. But right now in 2017, he's out-performing it by almost two runs. And it's also a career-low FIP by almost a run too. (And in fairness to Thrylos, he was citing xFIP, and Santiago's 2017 HR rate is only 38% of his career rate, and only 30% of his 2016 rate.) This isn't a FIP issue, it's a small sample / peripherals issue.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Mark DeRosa? Dave was right all along!
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually we did spend it! On one year of Hector Santiago.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    With Santiago's arbitration salary, the trade was cash neutral. The Twins paid all of Nolasco's remaining salary last year, and are paying $4 mil of Nolasco's salary this year. EDIT: Actually the Twins did appear to save $1 mil -- the buyout on Nolasco's 2018 option. At the time of the deal, arbitration estimates for Santiago were $8-9 million and I guess his poor finish helped ensure he came in at the lower number. Had he come in at $9 mil it would have offset Nolasco's buyout too. In any case, it was effectively cash neutral.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously Meyer is more likely to fail than succeed, etc. But his current line might be influenced a bit by the Pacific Coast League too. His K and BB rates are good through 3 starts, but he's got a .429 BABIP. And the two parks he's pitched in so far were recently ranked just behind Colorado Springs as the most hitter-friendly in that league: https://www.milb.com/international/news/toolshed-final-triple-a-park-factors-review/c-155266172/t-209979210 Of course, he did the high-BABIP thing back in early 2015 with Rochester too. He's still a project. It will be interesting to see how the next few months go for him, and to see how the Angels handle him.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    He's had a rough start, but interestingly Nolasco has managed to limit the damage from those dingers about as well as could possibly be expected. 7 HR, but 5 of them have been solo shots and the other 2 have been 2-run shots. I was expecting to see a pretty horrendous overall line for him, but he's managed to be run of the mill Nolasco bad.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Nolasco had a nice 11 start run for the Angels last year too. I wouldn't be so quick to pat the Twins on the back after 3 good starts from Santiago. FWIW, 2 of those 3 starts have come against the White Sox and Royals, who rank 11th and 15th respectively out of 15 AL teams in runs per game, 13th and 15th in batting average, 12th and 14th in walk rate, etc.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    John, is this a typo? The BP site says the cost is $45. Face value of a grandstand ticket for that game is $27 right now, so I suspect BP is right: http://purchase.tickets.com/buy/MLBEventInfo?orgid=9&agency=MLB&pid=8391920
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Ervin Santana had a terrible year as a starter early in his career too -- 5.74 ERA / 5.13 FIP in 2007. The Angels were wise to let him continue starting. Even roughly league average run prevention as a full-time starter can be pretty valuable. (For that matter, Ervin had two later poor years too.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, this does seem premature. Through 4 games last year, Duffey was looking pretty good too -- 8.5 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 1.85 ERA, 2.96 RA9. And that was 4 starts, three times the innings he's logged so far this season, and they weren't all against slouch opponents either -- Cleveland, Detroit, and Washington (plus the White Sox, which might be a slouch opponent ). I mean, I hope he can keep it up too, but I don't know how helpful it is to invoke Andrew Miller at this point.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I mentioned in the other thread, Gibson has 2 option years left.
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