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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Might as well compare him to his youth baseball teammates too. Just because he has ultimately achieved more than a subset of the population doesn't mean he hasn't also lagged behind his peers in some contexts. How many 26th overall picks out of high school are starting in MLB less than 4 years later? Actually, Swihart was drafted at age 19, had only 6 pro PA before his 20th birthday, and was a MLB starting catcher just after his 23rd, so it was closer to 3 years. I think it's fair to say he's had a fall if he's a DFA candidate by age 26. Another way to look at it: he was basically a league-average or better hitter every year of his pro career, age 20 through 24, the last 2 coming in MLB. Then at age 25 he collapsed to a 47 wRC+ at AAA, and has followed that with a 25 wRC+ in MLB at age 26. Similar story with health / DL time. He had a fall.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    You mean the prospect who was the #26 overall pick in the 2011 draft?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    And Friday's game could do the same for Matt Belisle...
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    And those big AAA reliever K rates already seem to translate pretty poorly to MLB, if the Twins system is any indication. Didn't mean to pick on you or Littell, just throwing a note of caution there, as folks often see that K rate and get overly impressed, as it would have been well above league average a few years ago.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth noting that Littell's K/9 at AAA is actually slightly below league average (8.3).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't care for farewell tours, too much of a distraction. Just let him play like normal and make up his mind in the offseason. In any case, I'll give him an extra round of applause attending my last home game of the year.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Most trades also involve minor leaguers making quite a bit less than that. Or rookies who have only made a fraction of $500k so far. And there are certain aspects where money isn't a complete solution. Kids changing schools or being further away from their father, etc.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    If he doesn't heat up soon, maybe he could clear waivers at beginning of August and get traded some time that month.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Probably not, at least not meaningfully so. Low-cost guys usually aren't worth upping the ante for. Maybe you can get them to include their next DFA candidate like Enns. Maybe they will eat a little more cash. But if you want a notably better return, they'll probably look elsewhere.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I think the primary reason teams might be targeting Dozier right now would be a perceived low cost. Which, if low enough, might be reason enough to hold onto him.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Super small sample, but apparently Happ and Hamels had poor starts today, while Gibson was pretty good (albeit against Baltimore).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Grossman was out of options. It does look like JD Martinez had options left.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    One and two-thirds season for Murphy in the Twins or (although the second season was all at Rochester). B-Ref has Murphy and Garver with identical 98 OPS+ and 0.5 WAR figures right now, in 161 and 170 PA respectively. (Fangraphs gives a slight wRC+ and WAR advantage to Murphy, though.)
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Cave K's a lot more than Kepler. Kepler should have the productivity advantage, if he can ever manage a league average BABIP.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, Kemmer has yet to be on a 40-man roster, thus he has never used an option. Which means the Astros must consider him a thorough non-prospect to deal him to the Twins.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The Orioles have probably raised the hopes of many teams this year...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins Release Chris Carter https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/twins-release-chris-carter.html
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    MLBTR: Red Sox Interested In Fernando Rodney https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/red-sox-interested-in-fernando-rodney.html (Maybe we need a general Twins trade rumors thread now?)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    For those interested, I replied on the draft subject on the recommended draft thread: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/30232-article-minnesota-twins-2018-mlb-draft-signing-tracker/page-4?do=findComment&comment=768118
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    But those picks were self-selected to match the goal (staying under the pool). If one thinks the goal should have been different (spending the overage), then citing the actual picks/goal is non-responsive. It is a little troubling that we haven't done that yet, even under a new front office with two very different draft positions (last year with a huge pool, and this year with a smaller pool and two lost picks). Also, ordering is particularly irrelevant, particularly after 10 rounds.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps, if a team buys into his inprovement. But the Dodgers are kind of set at SP right now.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs also estimated 50 FV hitting prospects as worth $20 mil. Escobar and a reliever is unlikely to provide $20 mil in surplus value the rest of the season.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup, Ruiz. Same FV 50 at Fangraphs. Interestingly, both are in AA this year, and Ruiz is struggling a bit. Even if the Dodgers were open to dealing one of them, the Twins likely have nothing to offer them from our likely trade assets. If they believed in Gibson's turnaround, he might be close, but the Dodgers are still kind of stacked in the SP department.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    And 21 teams did it last year too: https://www.mlb.com/news/2018-mlb-draft-bonus-pools-pick-values/c-269930084 The Twins already had the largest bonus pool last year, but that also means we could have had the largest overages too (~$708k).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't forget c.) The Phil Hughes trade. That was an $812k slot, plus another $40k in overages. Had we kept that pick, we could have offered ~$1.15 mil or so to another guy.
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