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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    The top 100 prospect was traded *with* Renfroe. So I think the poster is comparing Rosario to Pham. Although Pham is arguably better than both Renfroe and Rosario, even without looking at Rosario's suspect defensive metrics. Pham has a career 129 wRC+, Rosario and Refroe each at 105. Pham is a few years older, but he doesn't seem to be slowing down too much -- coming off a 121 wRC+, compared to Rosario at 103 and Refroe at 98. Pham also added 25 SBs. Even at his age, Pham looks like the better bet over the next 2 years. Hence why Pham could cost the cheap Renfroe plus a top 100 prospect.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Castro was only predicted to get 2/10 by MLBTR, so his salary might end up similar to Avila's. Although Castro probably has a better case to get a starting job somewhere rather than re-signing as a backup to Garver (MLBTR slotted him with the Angels).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Literally that's not true. There was at least one poster recently telling me that Pineda is as good or better than Wheeler. And I think that opinion is related to an over-reliance on small sample stats like the ones I quoted. So I just wanted to provide a note of caution. I think this is a fine deal too, assuming they still go out and acquire a top starter (and probably an additional guy/project).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, while Avila is still good at drawing walks, his 2019 stats were inflated a bit by intentional walks. Avila batted primarily in the 8th spot in front of a pitcher last year, and drew 7 IBB in only 201 PA. If you remove those IBB from his BB and PA, his OBP would drop from .353 to .330, his OPS+ from 100 to perhaps 92 or so. (Still a good walk rate, with only a .207 AVG!)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Since the other thread is destined for closure... Avila does strike out a lot, but he also walks a lot, so using ABs will overstate his K rate. He has 435 PAs the last two seasons -- which still means a very high 36.3% K rate! I was going to say, his career rate is only 29.1%, but that was from his early years. He's been above that mark every year since 2013 (33.0% in that time).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd pump the brakes on Graterol, y'all. He's talented, but there's no way he's ready for a full season MLB starter workload, even by modern standards. And he hasn't yet demonstrated an ability to stay healthy for a long stretch either. No way we can count on him filling a spot out of spring training. Dobnak has a better chance, but even then, I'd probably prefer not to plan on him holding down a spot for any longer than Pineda's suspension.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    He had a nice run, but it's also worth noting his competition in those 14 starts -- Pineda faced only 2 top-10 offenses (by run scoring) in those 14 starts, vs 8 bottom-10 offenses. You'd also want to factor in his conservative pitch counts and his time off (missed a start right before that run, 1 more for the all-star break, and 2 more in August), and the fact that his season got to end at 146 innings -- so he really didn't face the workload challenge of, say, Wheeler, etc. Now, that and the suspension and his track record is why Pineda is getting 2/20 while others are looking at much more, and Pineda can absolutely be useful at that price -- but I'd caution against thinking too much that Pineda can help the top of the rotation rather than simply reinforce the bottom.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite. That table, while cool, is only state tax rates. Philadelphia has an additional city tax rate of 3.46-3.88%, which came up in the Harper discussions last year: https://www.inquirer.com/business/phillydeals/bryce-harper-phillies-tax-philadelphia-california-cities-20190318.html I'd guess the overall tax difference is negligible.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Does that mean you're crowning their ass?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I heard that from Hayes too. I don't know if that really reflects all that well on the Twins, though. First of all, it doesn't say they were willing to match or beat $118 mil, and if not, what's the point? Of course Wheeler's not going to bother dragging the Twins from $100 to $110 mil or whatever if he already has two $118+ mil offers in hand, including one from his preferred destination. At best, doesn't that seem to imply the Twins were slow and/or mis-calculated the player's market? And that they didn't even make their best offer for the attainable FA SP they valued the most? Really puts some pressure on them to come through with their fallback plan.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Pineda did have a nice run last season -- although he faced a pretty weak schedule in July and August. And he doesn't have a great track record beyond that either, in terms of upside or durability. But he can still be a useful piece at this price. It does seem to make it more of an imperative to get another top SP, though, especially with Pineda missing the first 39 games.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    It stimulates pee. It can make you pee faster and stronger. Putting the Pee in PED! (Pee Enhancing Drug) Then there's also PEDs for Palmeiro Erectile Dysfunction...
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if it's as much being better than those guys, as simply being another one of those guys. (Although I'll remind that Pineda is not yet under contract, will miss at least a month in 2020, and Wheeler has 3 seasons with more IP than Pineda's career high too...) We need another couple guys like that, and every FA that signs somewhere else makes it a little less likely that we'll get the guys we need. (And Wheeler looked like one of the better FA options with upside, although obviously it came at a cost too.)
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    If you haven't gotten a great answer, it's probably because you're not really asking a question but stating an opinion. By some measures, Wheeler was the second best pitcher on the Mets last year, behind only the Cy Young winner deGrom. At worst, he's roughly in line with Syndergaard and Stroman, who are two pretty useful pitchers too. The Mets were a third place team, but had 86 wins in arguably the most competitive division in baseball last year (wild card team, four .500+ teams). If you account for the fact that 5 of the 6 worst teams in baseball were in the AL last year, an 86 win NL team might have been the equivalent of a 90 win AL team.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Wheeler has a fiancé but not yet a wife. And a dog but no kids yet. His fiancé's Twitter bio suggests she splits her time between NYC and Atlanta. (Wheeler is originally from Georgia?) The photos she shares online suggest she doesn't spend a lot of time in New Jersey.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Even if the Twins were willing to bid $118+ mil (not saying they were), but failed to do so, that's still on them. It wasn't out of their control as some might suggest -- part of a team's responsibility in these negotiations is making a high enough opening bid and staying engaged in the process. And again, I don't particularly care that they lost out on Wheeler, as long as they still manage to acquire quality pitching this winter.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    For those doubting the PR value of bringing up his wife's family, witness the scores of people, who don't know Zack Wheeler from Zach Morris, now extolling Wheeler's virtues as a family man. And all because he did the same thing that most other pro athletes do by signing the top offer from a contending team! I don't mean to come off as too cynical -- I have no doubt that Wheeler was likely hoping to stay in that area. But he didn't exactly get tested on that point either in any meaningful way. And it's irrelevant to the Twins if our top bid was only 5/100. I guarantee that Wheeler did not instruct the Twins to stop bidding at that amount.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, like I said, the White Sox haven't really been pursuing many FA. Although when you're pursuing the same guy as the White Sox, Tigers, and Blue Jays, as the tweet suggests, that's not a great group either...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    The group that got swept in the ALDS didn't have Liriano, as he was injured.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I was thinking more like, the White Sox haven't been very good at talent evaluation lately. (Not that they've been pursuing a lot of FA either.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    It's good to approach reports with skepticism, but at this point, it's been thoroughly reported that the Twins offer was 5/100. If the Twins actual offer was closer to $118 mil or higher, it would be in everyone's interest to put that information out there. Like the White Sox have done -- an organization whose recent frugality tops the Twins. The White Sox want their fan base to know they really made a big offer for a top FA regardless of whether he actually signed. And Wheeler benefits, because he can look like a "good guy" to his new fan base for not simply chasing the most money. And his agent gets to claim he delivered the higher White Sox figure, even if Wheeler didn't accept it. And even the Phillies can claim they got a "bargain", or that their organization possesses intangibles that help recruit talent.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    If we trust the reports, all we know is that apparently Wheeler's wife was a deciding factor in choosing the 81-win Phillies over a comparable offer from the 72-win White Sox. Unfortunately, that doesn't really tell us anything about how much of a factor she would have been if the 101-win Twins made a comparable offer.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Marwin Gonzalez is a Boras client. Mike Pelfrey was a Boras client too, and I'm sure there have been others on the Twins. If you mean, sign a "top" Boras client, well, the Twins record FA deal is still Ervin Santana at 4/54, so they haven't made a deal with any agents or agencies above that level.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    That said, even if the 72-win White Sox legitimately offered more that $118 mil, and Wheeler instead chose $118 mil from the 81-win Phillies, that also doesn't mean a $118+ mil offer from the 101-win Twins would have been doomed to fail too. But the Twins didn't make such an offer -- reports seem solid that their offer was 5/100. I don't necessarily care, as long as the Twins still get quality pitching at fair cost this winter (and said pitching performs as good or better than Wheeler), but I'm also not prepared to say losing out on Wheeler was out of the Twins hands either.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    And I listed 3 ways it could be a true statement, but still not mean that Wheeler turned down a better offer. When something like this is so vague, and makes everyone involved look better, I think we should be pretty suspicious.
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