AlwaysinModeration

I’m taking your attempt and editing it, and adding to it: As far as pursuing a top-end starter, I know some fans aren’t going to buy this, but we're very confident in the guys we have in the organization. You can certainly never have too much pitching, but we like what we see when we take a look at our in-house options. First, we believe strongly that Jose Berrios is as good of a building block to a rotation as there is. He's still only 24-years-old and has several years ahead of him in a Minnesota Twins uniform. Second, look at the career trajectory of Kyle Gibson. He was a first round pick and a top prospect, who was stalled along the way to success, in big part due to injury, but also, we think, due to his approach and pitch selection. In the last 1.5 years, he has really put it all together, and there is no reason to believe he isn’t going to continue to get better this year. Third, we are very excited to see what Michael Pineda can do for us this year. Like Gibby, he was a top prospect whose career was sidetracked after he suffered from injury. He also suffered from a lot of bad luck in terms of hits falling in (go check out his batting average on balls in play over the past few years) and frankly, playing in Yankee Stadium with that short right field porch. He was a highly sought-after player in Seattle for a reason, and we feel lucky to have been able to get him when we did by taking a risk to invest in him over two years. We are looking forward to the payoff of that investment this year - I think Mike is going to surprise some people with the season he is going to have. (And by the way, I shouldn’t say this, but we are hoping that our investment in him will not only pay off this year, but also allow us to keep him beyond this year, too, either through a qualifying offer or an extension.) Fourth, I want to point you at two of our young guys who are just now getting their chance to establish themselves in the bigs: Romero and Gonsalves. We have watched these guys climb the ranks of the system, excelling and establishing themselves more and more as legit prospects. They both finally got a taste of the majors last year. While they aren’t guaranteed anything this year, I can tell you this—they are both going to get a real chance to prove that they can be great, and we expect that they will start to do this at the major league level this year. I don’t think that they will be top of the rotation guys right away (such as this year), but their track record tells us that they absolutely have what it takes to get there. Ultimately, of course, it is up to them, and we are excited to see if they can do it. I also want to note that in terms of our pitching staff, you simply cannot underestimate the impact of getting Buxton and Castro back on the field this year. Those two guys are both going to make all of our pitchers look - and perform - considerably better. Finally, one more important point. Our new pitching partnership of Wes Johnson, Jeremy Hefner, Pete Maki and others are going to put those pitchers in the best possible situations to succeed. I think these guys are going to bring a lot of new ideas and energy to our pitching staff that are going to have a marked difference. Oh, and one more thing. In terms of the Martin Perez signing, I don’t really know what we were doing with that one, either. Maybe we’ll catch lightning in a bottle or he’ll finally start to figure it out. Hopefully Wes can work a miracle with him, that seems to be what he has done over the years. Let me just say this: Thad made me do it.

I agree with you. I don’t think I would have signed him. I would rather see internal options Romero, Gonsalves, and Mejia get the first crack. I’m just trying to work through the reasoning behind the move. And thinking through it, I came up with a number of reasons. I’m still not convinced. That said, I guess we are going to find out if the FO guys know more than we do.

Ok, let me chime in on this, because a)everyone is, and b)I know all will be eager for my take. Here are reasons I can see taking a flier on this guy: 1. He was top-ranked as a prospect, hitting #18 on mlb.com, #17 on Baseball America, and #7 on Keith Law’s list. Granted, this was back in 2010, a long time ago. But there is a reason players get those sort of high rankings. 2. He’s 27. It’s unusual to get a former top prospect right at the start of their prime years. (This certainly seems an MO for the FO; get “the shine is off” 27-years olds - Schoop, Austin, Perez.) 3. He’s played in Texas, the most extreme pitcher’s park outside of Colorado (and maybe even including Colorado). 4. He had TJ surgery in 2014. It frequently takes a while for players to come back fully from that. (See Gibson, Kyle, and look upthread for nick’s lone wolf get-rid-of-the-sinker arguments). He also has had some odd injuries; the bull thing, and screwing up his thumb in a hotel door. 5. His MLB BABIP is .315, and it was .330 and .345 the last two years in Texas. Get a year of <300 and that alone might result in better numbers. Couldn’t find his minor league BABIP. 6. He’s from Venezuela and left handed, good change-up. (The Johan comps leap off the page. s/) 7. He came cheap, after Texas declined a $7.5mm option, they got him for $3.5 and a year option. He might be terrible, but if he puts it together, it could be a decent deal. Let’s remember, he’s being signed as a possible #5, nothing more, with not much risk. The Mets wanted him but weren’t going to give him a chance at the rotation, so he picked the Twins. 8. Levine knows him from Texas (as does Nelson Cruz?). So, that’s what I’ve got. I also get that he hasn’t been good, he didn’t live up to his billing, his minors numbers also weren’t great, and he might be taking a spot from someone else. All of that is why he’s available at 27 for cheap. Realistically, though, he’s probably getting 10-15 starts. If he gets 30 starts, it’s because he did well. I think Mejia, Romero, and Gonsalves all will get opportunities in the rotation this year; you need 8-10 starters every year. I get people may have wanted someone else (Keuchel, Buchholz, Kimbrel, Allen), but I don’t think this is the worst move in the world.

They haven’t said how much Allen got yet, but in answer to Nick’s speculation “1 year, $14mm ought to get it donr”, I believe we are going to see that yes, that would have easily gotten it done.

Went to see On the basis of Sex this past weekend. Great movie, in my opinion. There is a funny SNL bit where they say that RBG, like Brett Kavanaugh, keeps a calendar, only on hers, each day, there is only one entry: DON’T DIE. And, chiming in on the earlier part of this thread, I didnt really like Shape of Water. Three Billboards was much better.

Ding ding. Looking back at the stats that Buxton/Sano/Arcia posted at 19/20/21/A+/AA, serves as a reminder. Kiriloff and Lewis look phenomenal. But there isn’t a guarantee that they are destined for superstardom.

Reposting from dbminn over in the “national writers on the Twins’ thread”: “Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs has written an ode to Willians Astudillo (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/willians-astudillo-is-an-mvp-candidate/) now that he's a nominee for LVBP (Venezuela Winter League) MVP.”

One more, a cautionary tale: Player E Age 21 season, A+/AA 534PA .320/.388/.539/.928, 36 doubles, 8 triples, 17 HRs, 4SB, 51/107 BB/K Any guesses? He appears to currently be playing in Japan, last posting this line stateside in AAA in 2017: .320/.404/.623/.1.028

I didn’t say they aren’t relevant. And I’m very aware of the “character” consideration in the HOF vote. The fact that not only were Bonds and Clemens not near-unanimous first ballot HOFers, they have languished on the ballot and their inclusion is hotly debated every year shows quite clearly that many voters are taking the character clause quite seriously. IIRC, the same year that Bonds offered to play for league minimum yet was blackballed by every club, MLB put admitted PED user Jason Giambi on the “last player” ballot for the All Star Game, and the Yankees ran a big campaign on his behalf with MLB’s blessing. The whole era was poorly handled, with all sorts of mixed messages. And now the same writers who blithely looked the other way while the homers piled up are moralizing with their votes. Meanwhile, Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza are in the Hall already, sailing in ahead of Barry Bonds. Do we know they are clean? Just vote them in already, put up a special exhibit about the PEDs era, and let’s move on to better arguments. Like whether Mauer will be first ballot.

Great list, Nick. I particularly like your notes at the end, Larnach, Rooker, Cruz, players you would move around, etc. Just perusing some minor league numbers, and a I found these four seasons: Player A Age 19 season A/A+ 535PA .292/.352/.451/.803, 29 doubles, 3 triples, 14 HRs, 28 SB, 43/84 BB/K Player B Age 19 season A/A+ 574PA .334/.424/.520/.944, 19 doubles, 18 triples, 12 HRs, 55SB, 76/105 BB/K Player C Age 20 season A+/AA 519PA .280/.382/.610/.992, 30 doubles, 5 triples, 35 HRs, 11SB, 65/142 BB/K Player D Age 20 season A/A+ 561PA .348/.392/.578/.970, 44 doubles, 7 triples, 20 HRs, 4SB, 38/86BB/K A Royce B Buxton C Sano D Kiriloff I am looking forward to players B and C approximating those same batting lines again, hopefully as soon as this year. And I hope player D repeats that batting line again this year in AA. Player A has some catching up to do to match those other guys, it seems to me.

Bonds and Clemens are two of the ten or so best players of all time. They should be in the Hall of Fame. They took steroids, when the league wasn’t testing for steroids. They faced off against PED users, and were better than them. They are a part of why the league changed their stance on testing. I think they will get in. Each year more older voters stop voting and take their no votes with them, and more young voters come online and vote for them. They both topped 50% last year, and are tracking for 60%+ this year. I think they get in next year or the year after. Schilling should also get in. This doesn’t mean that I think these are necessarily good guys, or have morally acceptable views, or were good teammates. But they were great ballplayers. And that’s what the Hall of Fame is - a showcase of the games great. A Hall without them doesn’t make sense. As for others, Halladay, Edgar, Mussina, Walker. Mariano, sure (although has anyone done a stats comparison between Johan and Mariano? Johan has better career numbers than Halladay through age 31, before the Mets shredded Johan’s shoulder to get a no-hitter.). For the last two, I’d say Rolen and Berkman.

My list would look something like this: Matt McGill Tyler Duffey Zack Granite Michael Reed

All I could see were the strawberry capri pants. I’m encouraged by the statement about his work and commitment to the Twins accompanying the photo, and the fact that Rocco went to DR to connect in person with one of his two potential super-stars. Maybe it means nothing, but I’m of the mind that it in fact means something.

Ah ha, I’m not totally crazy. Just off by a year. A team would have had to have serious long-term planning, though, to selected Thorpe two years ago, keep him rostered for a year, and send him down. It worked for the Twins with Pressley, I suppose. Anyway, glad the Twins have Thorpe. Can we move on to discussing his “Thorpedo” pitch?

The Schoop signing is looking better and better, considering he lobbied Cruz to sign with the Twins. Now, can Machado be far behind? Get the band back together....

The Twins officially announced the signing. What was the corresponding move?

Weird, I thought that when he was out for a year or two with injury, he was left unprotected in the rule 5. Maybe I am confusing him with another pitcher (Felix Jorge?) Thanks for the clarification.

I’m glad you aren’t running the team. I think it would be a big mistake to bring up Lewis, Kiriloff, Rooker, Gordon and Arraez now. Wasting their service time, messing with their development. What if half of their six years are spent figuring it out? I agree with you about: -Giving Kepler, Sano, Buxton and Polanco a lot of opportunity to play. -Putting Romero and Gonsalves in the rotation -Your idea of having Astudillo start all 9 positions in a game. I guess my biggest point of disagreement with you is that you think that they can’t be competitive in 2019. I think they absolutely can, and Cruz, Schoop, Cron are worthwhile investments—in part to make a run this year, and in part to give the prospects more time to develop, increasing the likelihood that they produce right when they arrive. (Oh, and in your scenario, I don’t see any playing time available for Rosario.)

He was a year ago, I believe, which is what I meant. Which, technically, was the year before last, not last year, now that we are in 2019.

*are* lucky

Twins aren’t lucky he didn’t get taken in the rule 5 last year. When he comes up, can we refer to his fastball as the Thorpedo? (Any chance he is related to Ian Thorpe?)

That contract makes my head hurt. Or maybe it was the champagne. I didn’t think there was any likelihood the Twins would sign Kikuchi. Also ok with that. Would much rather see them sign a couple of solid RPs. (Britton and Ottavino would probably be too much to hope for?)

This is an interesting discussion about how to develop both players successfully and, ultimately, a successful team. For developing players, I don’t think there is any clearcut best path. Some players probably could make it in the majors earlier. Some need more development time than they are given. There are trade-offs in both scenarios, and risk in both. If you have a precocious player that can make it to the majors by 20, and thrives, great. But then he’s a free agent at 26 and will likely play his prime years elsewhere. Or, if he struggles at 20, then you start to lose service time. If you have a player who needs to learn at each level, including majors, you are going to suffer losses as a result of that. Hicks was an extreme example of this. We may be seeing this play out with Buxton and Sano. Maybe Kepler too. What I want from a front office is an effort to put together the best possible lineup from top to bottom. For a team that won’t be chasing all of the biggest free agents, this means building as deep a farm system as possible. Prospects rise and fall with a lot of fluidity. For every handful of prospects that have potential, maybe one of them turns into something special. Even for those that are something special, it still may require signicant learning at the major league level. At CF, the path to having the best possible player at that position is giving a chance to Buxton to reach his full potential. It might happen in 2019, 2020, 2021, or never. But he still represents the best chance for the Twins at fielding a superstar level center fielder. The same exact thinking goes with Sano for third base. As for DH, Cruz represents the best possible bat they could put in that position of their lineup for 2019, and maybe even 2020 too. I’m totally onboard with that move. To me, 2018 was a “take your lumps” year for the long-term benefit of the team. It resulted in a lost season, that allowed the team to part ways with Molitor, and bring in new, young coaching staff, including Baldelli and Wes Johnson. The team won 78 games, and is going to see strides forward this year from Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Romero, Gonsalves, and maybe Berrios again. They have added players that should improve production at three positions (DH, 2B, 1B). They have a deep system on top of that. And the offseason isn’t done, so we could see some bullpens arms added as well. I’m onboard with this front office’s approach.

Nick, I love this series and I love the discussionit has created. Thanks for putting the time and effort into it. All that said, I can’t fathom how any of Gibson, May or Garver, by any measure, can be placed ahead of Sano on this list. I don’t care if we are talking trade value, WAR, or traditional stats. Sano (and his three years of team control) is a significantly more valuable asset for the team than Gibson (one year), May (two years) or even Garver (five years).

Nats will sign him for a 1year, 8mm contract.