AlwaysinModeration

Ok, I’ll bite. Why do you insist on the “h” in Kiriloff?

And to bring the conversation back to Kiriloff, as this is in the Kiriloff forum, let me point out the glaringly obvious fact that Kiriloff went from last year being unranked nationally but “he’s a great pure hitter” to this year, after an amazing statistical season, ranked in the top 20 nationally. To me, it looks like it was his stats over the past year that made up 95% of those ranking changes. (94.8%, to be exact.)

It seems like there is a big difference between saying stats are “just a piece of the puzzle” and “rankings typically have very little to do with the stats.” I think your latter statement was just hyperbole and we shouldn’t hold you to it, especially in the broader context of all of the great work you do tracking down and writing up all of the Twins prospects that we all like to follow during the dog days of winter (buy the prospect handbook!). All that said, I am still a bit perplexed how you feel like you aren’t considering stats that much when you go from ranking Gonsalves #1 in the system after an amazing statistical season in A+/AA, to #2 in the system after an exceedingly good statistical season in AA/AAA, to #11 after a similarly excellent statistical season in AAA with a 24 bad inning promotion to MLB. To me it looks like stats were a pretty big driver for those rankings.

Here is what you said, Seth, in the Jhoan Duran forum, when looking at Gonsalves vs Duran: “Prospect rankings, however, typically have very little to do with the stats, though they do obviously factor in. And, I would hope people have not given up on Gonsalves at all. But Duran's upside is top of the rotation starter. That's why I rank him higher. That's'why I have Graterol ranked higher.”

Always!

Well that does it, get Granite to the Lasic guy stat!

I somehow read that as “as a late inning pinch runner”, and did a double take.

I like your crowbar metaphor “manny” times more than the fingers metaphor.

If you are very excited to follow him this year, does that mean you have wanderlust?

If the Twins have actually offered 3/45 for Kimbrel, that is great news. It would be the highest price paid for a reliever on the market this offseason. Maybe it would take a few more million to get him to sign, but hopefully the Twins’ patience on the market and payroll flexibility will pay off. Aside from shoring up the back of the bullpen, he would be a fine trade piece. The Yankees traded Aroldis and Andrew Miller and got Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, and Justus Sheffield (who has turned into James Paxton).

It was a little heartless, I have to admit, but I couldn’t resist. I certainly don’t want to have to account for my past assertions! (I seem to recall a strong Tulowitzki post or five). Thanks for taking it in the right spirit. Gonsalves might have a lower upside than people thought a year or two ago, but, I think people are reading too much into 24IP.

Danchat, I went back to the 2018 write-up of Gonsalves (he was ranked #4 in the system by TD at the time) and I found an interesting comment in the comment section: “I'm hoping to see Gonsalves by July in the majors. From what I've read, it seems he'll slot in as a #3-4 starting pitcher. Having the young core of Berrios (#2), Gonsalves (#3), and Mejia (#4) and seeing them perform up to their talent levels would be huge for this team. Now if they only had a true ace... “I am concerned about the recent trend of rookie starters for the Twins. This includes Kyle Gibson (10 starts, 6.53 ERA), Trevor May (9 starts, 7.88 ERA), Jose Berrios (14 starts, 8.02 ERA). Mejia's first 10 starts were OK (4.93 ERA). The only good recent rookie starter I could find was Tyler Duffey (10 starts, 3.10 ERA) and it's been all downhill from here. “The Twins will have to be patient with Gonsalves... sophomore years have been much better for our starters.” ........ That comment, of course, was by you. I agree with you. Patience!

Great to see one of trade returns ranked this high, and seems like Duran has great pure stuff that is extremely projectable, which is the basis for a lot of proscpet lists. But let me repost what I posted on the forum when Tom put up spotlight article on Duran, now that we see TD has Gonsalves ranked #11 and Duran at #7: “I looked up Gonsalves’ minor league numbers: 108 games started, 599IP, 2.42ERA, 1.10WHIP, 9.5/3.6 K/BB. Duran’s numbers: 54GS, 259IP, 4.02ERA, 1.32WHIP, 8.0/3.2K/BB. Gonsalves had 4 mediocre starts in the big leagues and people have written him off. Not to throw shade on Duran, like I said I hope he turns into a great prospect for the Twins and sustains the improvement. I would have Gonsalves ahead of Duran on prospect lists, though. He could turn into a mainstay in the rotation for years to come. Duran is a long way from becoming that. I see that you have Gonsalves ahead of Duran, Tom. But two of the four of you have Gonsalves ranked lower than Duran. I think that Gonsalves’ mediocre debut shouldn’t tarnish his outlook. Remember Berrios...”

If he posted a 1.33 ERA in 20 GCL innings, and end the season with 53 innings of 2.36ERA in Low A, he must have had a really rough first 21 innings in Cedar Rapids to wind up with a 3.26 ERA overall. In any event, I certainly hope he pans out. For some reason I feel like he’s on the same path as Gonsalves.

SD, how about he go with the nickname “Yabba Dah”?

I plead the fifth on whether I will need a fifth to mull over the fourth.

I should have said, in keeping with the spirit of the article, “let me put forth a fourth fourth” in Austin.

Do they all have options? A fourth who doesn’t have an option is Tyler Austin. Reed looks intriguing. With two starting lefties in the OF corners, wouldn’t it make more sense to have the bench guy be right handed?

I don’t think those marks are unreasonable for any of the three. Buxton: 800 OPS. His minors OPS was 874; 901 in AAA. 800 is definitely manageable. Sano: 30 HRs. He hit 25 and 28 in 2016 and 2017. I think he should be shooting for 40, personally. THAT would be a breakout. Berrios: flirt with 3.00 ERA, All-Star berth. In six seasons in the minors, he posted a 2.77 ERA. He’s posted two seasons of 3.85~ish ball in the majors. As he hits his prime, he can absolutely hit his stride, and challenge 3. An all star berth would follow that. These guys are young, and haven’t posted their best mlb numbers yet. It’s eminently reasonable for them to start reaching their potential this year.

I don’t think he ignored it, the stats with the Twins were mentioned quite prominently in both write-ups, along with the bigger picture. It’s the bigger picture which placed them in the top 20, which is quite a haul for a Rule 5 pick.

If I recall correctly, that was the contraption a former Vikings RB got caught with (in the airport), to smuggle “clean” urine in to use to beat drug testing in the NFL.

I’m taking your attempt and editing it, and adding to it: As far as pursuing a top-end starter, I know some fans aren’t going to buy this, but we're very confident in the guys we have in the organization. You can certainly never have too much pitching, but we like what we see when we take a look at our in-house options. First, we believe strongly that Jose Berrios is as good of a building block to a rotation as there is. He's still only 24-years-old and has several years ahead of him in a Minnesota Twins uniform. Second, look at the career trajectory of Kyle Gibson. He was a first round pick and a top prospect, who was stalled along the way to success, in big part due to injury, but also, we think, due to his approach and pitch selection. In the last 1.5 years, he has really put it all together, and there is no reason to believe he isn’t going to continue to get better this year. Third, we are very excited to see what Michael Pineda can do for us this year. Like Gibby, he was a top prospect whose career was sidetracked after he suffered from injury. He also suffered from a lot of bad luck in terms of hits falling in (go check out his batting average on balls in play over the past few years) and frankly, playing in Yankee Stadium with that short right field porch. He was a highly sought-after player in Seattle for a reason, and we feel lucky to have been able to get him when we did by taking a risk to invest in him over two years. We are looking forward to the payoff of that investment this year - I think Mike is going to surprise some people with the season he is going to have. (And by the way, I shouldn’t say this, but we are hoping that our investment in him will not only pay off this year, but also allow us to keep him beyond this year, too, either through a qualifying offer or an extension.) Fourth, I want to point you at two of our young guys who are just now getting their chance to establish themselves in the bigs: Romero and Gonsalves. We have watched these guys climb the ranks of the system, excelling and establishing themselves more and more as legit prospects. They both finally got a taste of the majors last year. While they aren’t guaranteed anything this year, I can tell you this—they are both going to get a real chance to prove that they can be great, and we expect that they will start to do this at the major league level this year. I don’t think that they will be top of the rotation guys right away (such as this year), but their track record tells us that they absolutely have what it takes to get there. Ultimately, of course, it is up to them, and we are excited to see if they can do it. I also want to note that in terms of our pitching staff, you simply cannot underestimate the impact of getting Buxton and Castro back on the field this year. Those two guys are both going to make all of our pitchers look - and perform - considerably better. Finally, one more important point. Our new pitching partnership of Wes Johnson, Jeremy Hefner, Pete Maki and others are going to put those pitchers in the best possible situations to succeed. I think these guys are going to bring a lot of new ideas and energy to our pitching staff that are going to have a marked difference. Oh, and one more thing. In terms of the Martin Perez signing, I don’t really know what we were doing with that one, either. Maybe we’ll catch lightning in a bottle or he’ll finally start to figure it out. Hopefully Wes can work a miracle with him, that seems to be what he has done over the years. Let me just say this: Thad made me do it.

I agree with you. I don’t think I would have signed him. I would rather see internal options Romero, Gonsalves, and Mejia get the first crack. I’m just trying to work through the reasoning behind the move. And thinking through it, I came up with a number of reasons. I’m still not convinced. That said, I guess we are going to find out if the FO guys know more than we do.

Ok, let me chime in on this, because a)everyone is, and b)I know all will be eager for my take. Here are reasons I can see taking a flier on this guy: 1. He was top-ranked as a prospect, hitting #18 on mlb.com, #17 on Baseball America, and #7 on Keith Law’s list. Granted, this was back in 2010, a long time ago. But there is a reason players get those sort of high rankings. 2. He’s 27. It’s unusual to get a former top prospect right at the start of their prime years. (This certainly seems an MO for the FO; get “the shine is off” 27-years olds - Schoop, Austin, Perez.) 3. He’s played in Texas, the most extreme pitcher’s park outside of Colorado (and maybe even including Colorado). 4. He had TJ surgery in 2014. It frequently takes a while for players to come back fully from that. (See Gibson, Kyle, and look upthread for nick’s lone wolf get-rid-of-the-sinker arguments). He also has had some odd injuries; the bull thing, and screwing up his thumb in a hotel door. 5. His MLB BABIP is .315, and it was .330 and .345 the last two years in Texas. Get a year of <300 and that alone might result in better numbers. Couldn’t find his minor league BABIP. 6. He’s from Venezuela and left handed, good change-up. (The Johan comps leap off the page. s/) 7. He came cheap, after Texas declined a $7.5mm option, they got him for $3.5 and a year option. He might be terrible, but if he puts it together, it could be a decent deal. Let’s remember, he’s being signed as a possible #5, nothing more, with not much risk. The Mets wanted him but weren’t going to give him a chance at the rotation, so he picked the Twins. 8. Levine knows him from Texas (as does Nelson Cruz?). So, that’s what I’ve got. I also get that he hasn’t been good, he didn’t live up to his billing, his minors numbers also weren’t great, and he might be taking a spot from someone else. All of that is why he’s available at 27 for cheap. Realistically, though, he’s probably getting 10-15 starts. If he gets 30 starts, it’s because he did well. I think Mejia, Romero, and Gonsalves all will get opportunities in the rotation this year; you need 8-10 starters every year. I get people may have wanted someone else (Keuchel, Buchholz, Kimbrel, Allen), but I don’t think this is the worst move in the world.

They haven’t said how much Allen got yet, but in answer to Nick’s speculation “1 year, $14mm ought to get it donr”, I believe we are going to see that yes, that would have easily gotten it done.