Seth Stohs

My favorite thing is that I think that the winner is pretty obvious and that there are four guys who probably could make a strong case. That's a good thing. Next year, we're looking at Buxton, Kepler, Chargois, Burdi and more could be coming up!

This is correct. I never even considered Escobar for Most Improved. First, he won it last year, and second, he put up very similar numbers last year.

At Twins Daily this week, we will hand out some more 2015 Minnesota Twins awards. As you know, we believe in recognizing achievement and that’s what we’re doing here. The Twins Daily writers, including the minor league writers, had votes in each category. Today we begin with a look at the 2015 Most Improved Minnesota Twin, Aaron Hicks. Winning an award like “Most Improved” is one of those things that a player may never really want to win. By definition, it generally means that you weren’t really good the year before. However, it does mean that you were much better this year, and that’s obviously good.Show of hands, Twins Daily readers… How many of you had completely given up on Aaron Hicks after his first two big league seasons? I’m sure we could do a quick review of the Twins Daily forums from 2013 through spring training of 2015 and find a few threads on the subject. Aaron Hicks was considered a top prospect since the Twins made him the 14th overall pick in the 2008 draft out of high school in Long Beach, California. He was a Top 50 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America before the 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons. After falling out of the Top 100 for a year, he came in at number 72 before the 2013 season. That was following a 2012 season in which he was the Twins minor league hitter of the year. In AA New Britain, he filled up the stat line very well. He hit .286/.384/.460 (.844) with 21 doubles, 11 triples, 13 home runs and 32 stolen bases. He scored 100 runs and drove in 61. That offseason, the Twins traded two starting centerfielders, Denard Span and Ben Revere, opening the door for Hicks. He had a huge spring training in 2013 and won the Opening Day centerfield job. In a meeting with the media before Saturday’s game, General Manager Terry Ryan was asked what a biggest misconception is about prospects. “Not all of them succeed. There’s no doubt about that. This is tough up here. No matter what you do in the minor leagues, you still have to prove it every step of the way whether you’re going from A-ball to AA, which is a pretty big jump. Then the biggest jump is from AAA to the Major Leagues.” Hicks made the jump from AA to the big leagues and really struggled. That final jump to big leaguer is the most difficult. In 150 big league games between 2013 and 2014, he hit a combined .201/.293/.323 (.606). The Twins reversed strategy in spring training in 2015. Though he had a solid spring, the organization decided it was best for Hicks to begin the season at AAA. In 38 games, he hit .342/.405/.544 (.948) with 13 doubles, four triples and three home runs. On May 12, he made his return to the big leagues. He went on the Disabled List twice this season, but in 97 total games with the Twins, he hit .256/.323/.398 (.721) with 11 doubles, three triples and 11 home runs. He also stole 13 bases. Just as important, he has greatly improved his defense. Consider his Defensive WAR (per FanGraphs) has gone from -5.7 in 2013 to -3.6 in 2014 to +2.1 in 2015. From year to year, that’s a significant improvement. His Offensive WAR (per FanGraphs) has gone from -10.2 in 2013 to -2.8 in 2014 to -0.8 in 2015. Often considered passive, Hicks incorporated a leg kick and a more aggressive approach. His walk rate dropped from 16% to about 9%. However, his strikeout percentage also dropped from 26% to about 17% Not only did he swing at more pitches, but he swung harder, looking to attack the ball rather than just put it in play. Hicks told me over the weekend that he began to worry less about striking out, realizing it was just another out. As soon as he stopped worrying about it so much and having fun, his strikeouts dropped. Hicks also gave a lot of credit to Torii Hunter for his and his team’s success. There are a lot of factors that can help explain Hicks’ improvement. Terry Ryan was asked about what he noticed in Hicks in 2015. “His confidence level has taken a positive note. There’s no doubt that he looks like he belongs. I think he feels like he belongs. I think Torii (Hunter), Paul (Molitor) and Butch Davis and the people directly responsible for him should get some credit, but most of all, he ought to get some credit. There’s a chance that he felt (Byron) Buxton. Some of that stuff is always a piece, and he doesn’t want to see anybody go by him, I wouldn’t think.” Ryan continued, “For the most part, we got some of that switch-hitting stuff out of the equation. I think he feels comfortable from both sides. It’s about his turn. What is he now, 26? That’s about the time you’re either going to make or break it. You get into that age area, do you want to be a guy or don’t you. It’s pretty much up to him. He’s had ample opportunity, I think everyone would agree with that. He’s done something with it. He’s had a nice little go here.” Aaron Hicks took big strides forward in 2015, offensively and defensively. It was an important season for him. What is very exciting for Twins fans is that Hicks has the ability to continue to improve. There’s no question that with his athleticism and talent, he can be even better. The biggest thing he will need to do is improve his consistency over the course of the season. Twins Daily would like to congratulate Aaron Hicks on his forward strides during the 2015 season. Tell us what you think. Was Aaron Hicks the Twins Most Improved Player in 2015 or would another candidate get your vote. Below are the votes of each of our eight voters and the final results. The Results 1.) Aaron Hicks 23 2.) Mike Pelfrey 8 3.) Eduardo Escobar/Kyle Gibson 6 4.) Trevor May/Tommy Milone 2 5.) Eduardo Nunez 1 The Votes Seth Stohs: 1.) Aaron Hicks, 2.) Mike Pelfrey, 3.) Tommy Milone Nick Nelson: 1.) Aaron Hicks, 2.) Mike Pelfrey, 3.) Kyle Gibson John Bonnes: 1.) Eduardo Escobar, 2.) Aaron Hicks, 3.) Mike Pelfrey Parker Hageman: 1.) Aaron Hicks, 2.) Mike Pelfrey, 3.) Tommy Milone Jeremy Nygaard: 1.) Aaron Hicks, 2.) Eduardo Escobar, 3.) Kyle Gibson Cody Christie: 1.) Aaron Hicks, 2.) Kyle Gibson, 3.) Mike Pelfrey Eric Pleiss: 1.) Aaron Hicks, 2.) Kyle Gibson, 3.) Eduardo Nunez Steve Lien: 1.) Aaron Hicks, 2.) Trevor May, 3.) Eduardo Escobar Click here to view the article

We asked for this! We wanted this! Meaningful games in September, and now Meaningful games in October. This is fun, but I know I have no fingernails or hair remaining, and I'm OK with that. Nick wrote earlier this week about the Twins' resiliency, and it was again on display in this game. The Twins took an early lead. They got a terrific start from rookie Tyler Duffey which ended in unfortunate fashion. The Twins showed again their ability to come back and take advantage of opportunities to pull out an important 4-2 win in Cleveland. Below, you can follow the ups and downs of the game. It was a topsy-turvy game with many ups and downs. The win expectancy went back and forth several times throughout the late innings.Relive the wild ride which was Game 159 for the Minnesota Twins this season through win expectancy. TWINS TAKE FIRST LEAD The game was scoreless through the first three innings of the game. With one out in the top of the fourth: Joe Mauer doubled to left (5.2%). Miguel Sano grounded out to third base (-4.2%). Trevor Plouffe hit a ground-rule double to center to score Mauer (14.1%). The Twins had the 1-0 lead which has proven to be important many times. Obviously one run is rarely enough, and that would be the case on this night. PITCHER’S BEST FRIEND In the bottom half of the fourth, Cleveland mounted a threat and as has been the case a couple of times this series, it began with Jason Kipnis. Jason Kipnis doubled to center (-8.6%). Carlos Santana grounded out to second, advancing Kipnis to third base (+1.7%). Lonnie Chisenhall walked (-2.8%) Abraham Almonte grounded into a double play to end the threat and the inning (+16.0%). Ground ball double plays are obviously a big thing for a pitcher and his team. Any time you can get two outs on one pitch or one batter, this can have a huge effect on the game. In a low-scoring game, every out is important, but that was one of the bigger plays of the game. TWO-RUN HOMERS ARE BIG Tyler Duffey was going really well. He had thrown six shutout innings and the team had a 1-0 lead. The bottom of the seventh inning began with a Lonnie Chisenhall strikeout. The Twins win expectancy was 71%. And then, well… Abraham Almonte singled. (-5.4%) Robert Perez drills two-run homer to center field. (-44.2%) The Twins win expectancy suddenly was down to just 21.4% I think it’s fair to say that was a “game-changing” turn of events. This view and win expectancy don't necessarily illustrate just how good Tyler Duffey was in this game. In fact, he ended the game with a negative win expectancy despite making one big mistake in 6.1 innings of work. He came through for the Twins when they needed him, again! THE TWINS RESPONSE With Brian Shaw taking over for Trevor Bauer, Paul Molitor went with his gut a couple of times. Following an Aaron Hicks ground out, Molitor decided to use Danny Santana as a pinch-hitter for Kurt Suzuki. Santana had been 0-10 as a pinch hitter this season. However, he worked a rare walk. He also had Danny Santana take off toward second and Eduardo Escobar swung and did what he does best. Danny Santana walked (6.1%) Eduardo Escobar doubles to left field line to score Santana from first (30.5%) The Twins had tied the game at two and hoped to add a little more insurance. PITCHER’S BEST FRIEND (PART 2) After the Escobar RBI double, things got a little better… for a little while. Brian Dozier tapped an infield single to the first baseman to advance Escobar to third (+10.4%) Cleveland brings in Cody Allen. Joe Mauer grounded into a 4-6-3 double play to end the threat (-25.1%). As we said above, double plays tend to be pretty important in close games, especially late. Things tend to shift in terms of win expectancy in this type of game. Let me replay that top of the 8th in terms of overall win expectancy. Aaron Hicks grounds out (Twins likelihood of winning - 18.2%) Danny Santana walked (24.3%) Eduardo Escobar doubles to left field line to score Santana from first (54.8%) Brian Dozier tapped an infield single to the first baseman to advance Escobar to third (+65.2%) Cleveland brings in Cody Allen. Joe Mauer grounded into a 4-6-3 double play to end the threat (40.1%). Every play is magnified in a close game, and with the Twins playing a Meaningful Game in October, it becomes even more important and magnified. THE NINTH INNING (GULP!) Oh man, this game is intense. We wanted this, Meaningful Games, but I had almost forgotten how gut-wrenching each pitch can be! Here is the Twins half of the ninth: Miguel Sano flew out to center. (-5.5%, 44.5%) Trevor Plouffe reached on an error by Jose Ramirez (+5.7%, 50.3%) Eduardo Nunez pinch ran for Plouffe (no statistical change, but the speed does help) Eddie Rosario singled to right field and Nunez advanced to third, Rosario advanced to second on the throw. (+21.9%, 72.2%) With Torii Hunter batting, Cody Allen throws a (very) wild pitch to score Nunez, Rosario to third (+17.2%, 89.4%). Hunter hits a deep fly ball to right field to score Eddie Rosario. Twins lead 4-2 (+3.1%, 82.5%). Aaron Hicks flew out to center (-0.3%, 92.6%). On to the bottom of the ninth!! Twins lead 4-2. Ironic, maybe, that it was an error by Jose Ramirez that led to the Twins big ninth inning. Think they’re even now?! The Twins took advantage of an error and a wild pitch, and Torii Hunter had a tough plate appearance that ended with a perfect scenario. Great inning for the Twins! THE BOTTOM OF THE NINTH Kevin Jepsen came in to replace Glen Perkins who had a 1-2-3 eighth frame. Carlos Santana struck out (+4.0%, 96.6%) Lonnie Chisenhall popped out to shortstop (+2.5%, 99.1%) Abraham Almonte bunted for a single (-2.7%, 96.1%) Robert Perez struck out looking to end the game (+3.9%, 100%). Robert Perez wasn’t able to come up with a second game-altering hit, and Kevin Jepsen was terrific. Jepsen recorded his 10th save in 11 chances for the Twins this year. The Twins won for the 83rd time this season! Now, we watch scoreboards!! Click here to view the article

Definitely best to wait until 2016 to do anything about it. Tomorrow's game is too important to do anything like this.

Thirty minutes following the Minnesota Twins 7-1 win in Cleveland, the two teams played the second game of the doubleheader. It was a tale of two very different baseball games. The team fell 10-2 to Cleveland after another frustrating, and very short, start for Mike Pelfrey. Scoreboard watching, and hope that the Angels and Astros lose, becomes much more important.Things started out a bit shaky for Pelfrey in the first inning. He was able to wiggle his way out of a bases-loaded, two out situation. However, in the second inning, he was not. 2nd Inning Abraham Almonte doubled to center. (6.7%) Adam Moore struck out (-4.5%) Michael Martinez singled to center, scoring Almonte. Martinez advanced to second on a wild throw by Aaron Hicks. (11.3%) Jason Kipnis lined out to shortstop. (-3.0%) Jose Ramirez doubled to left field, Martinez scored. (10.1%) Francisco Lindor singled to first base. (1.0%) Lindor advanced to second on a wild pitch. Jose Ramirez scored. (6.9%) Carlos Santana singled to center. Lindor scored. (5.4%) Mike Pelfrey’s night was complete. JR Graham came on. Santana was thrown thrown out trying to steal second base by Chris Herrmann. But the damage was done. The Twins had their big inning in Game 1. Going into the second inning, Cleveland had a 54.8% win expectancy. Following Santana’s run-scoring single, that number was up to 88.7% After that, there weren’t really any hits that contributed to Cleveland’s win expectancy. They just continued to add runs. Graham gave up one run in the third inning. Brian Duensing gave up a run in his 1.1 innings. Phil Hughes gave up a hit, but no runs, in his inning. Ryan O’Rourke threw a perfect sixth inning. Ricky Nolasco returned to the mound for the first time since May 31. He got a ground out and then struck out the next two batters with an impressive curve ball. He could very easily have thrown in the towel on his season, but he worked his way back and you have to feel good for him. We won’t mention the three runs in gave up in his second inning of work that gave Cleveland a 10-1 lead. However, the Twins were unable to figure out Cody Anderson for the second straight time. In this one, they had just two hits over seven shutout innings. Anderson did walk four, but the Twins really didn’t mount much of a scoring threat against him. Zach McAllister came on for the eighth inning. He gave up a solo homer to Miguel Sano. The 430 foot blast from the rookie was his 18th of the year. In the ninth inning, Austin Adams gave up a solo homer to Eddie Rosario to give the 10-2 final score. The Performance of Pelfrey As noted above, it was another bad start for Pelfrey. Though the safe call on the Francisco Lindor infield single cost him an out and two runs in the second, he was just being hit so hard, and he was hurting himself by being all over the place with his control. However, that can change with one call and getting that third out. Things could have been different. He will (most likely) end his 2015 season (and maybe his Twins career) by going 6-11 with a 4.26 ERA. Coming into the game on Wednesday night, here is where the Twins starters ranked in FIP (fielding independent pitching), a stat which many suggest shows how well a pitcher has been able to control the things that he can control Mike Pelfrey – 3.99 (this got worse on Wednesday) Kyle Gibson – 4.05 (this improved on Wednesday) Ervin Santana – 4.22 Tommy Milone – 4.40 Phil Hughes – 4.72 Tyler Duffey – 3.18 (but his 51 innings is about one half to one fourth of the innings of each of the top five starters above) That’s just one number, one statistic, of course. Here’s how his ERA ranked coming into the games on Wednesday: Kyle Gibson – 3.96 Tommy Milone – 4.04 Mike Pelfrey – 4.09 Ervin Santana – 4.10 Phil Hughes – 4.43 Pelfrey’s ERA jumped to 4.26, but he’s still in line with the other Twins starters. He’s been a decent fifth starter and was very important to the team’s success in the first half. However, he was remarkably inconsistent. In 16 of his 30 starts, he went at least five innings and gave up less than two earned runs. However, in ten of his 30 starts, he wasn’t able to complete five innings. Five of his final ten starts were less than five innings. So this performance was certainly predictable. WILD CARD UPDATE The Twins went 1-1. The Angels lost to the A’s. The Astros beat the Mariners. The Astros have now jumped back in to the second Wild Card position, 1/2 game ahead of the Angels. The Twins are 1 1/2 games behind Houston with four games to play. It’s not over yet! Click here to view the article

The Twins have a tough schedule down the stretch and it started on Wednesday with a doubleheader. The Twins were able to get a lead early and had a big inning off of Carlos Carrasco to take an early lead and held on for a 7-1 win. Also, after arguably his worst start of the season, Kyle Gibson came through in a big way on this day. Here is a look at the big plays of Game 1 as we look forward to Game 2.Using Win Probabilty Added from Fan Graphs, the story of Game 1 is told below. As has been mentioned before, to determine these percentages, years upon years of actual game situations are used to determine how likely a team is to win from play to play. There were some big, game-changing plays in this one. A BIG START Joe Mauer batted second and hit his 10th home run of the season. (10.9%) It's been a tough season for Mauer, but he led the way early for the Twins in this game. It's always great to get an early lead, and with Gibson's most recent start, a one-run lead is very important early. Statistically, it was the one play of the game that gave the Twins the best chance to win. A BIG INNING Joe Mauer double. (6.3%) Miguel Sano singled Mauer to third base. (6.6%) Trevor Plouffe RBI single scored Mauer, with Sano going to second. (5.0%) Eddie Rosario walked to load the bases. (5.1%) Torii Hunter clears the bases with a double. (8.4%) With the score still 1-0 Twins going into the fourth inning, it was Mauer again who got things going with the leadoff double. And that was followed by big plate appearance after big plate appearance. Torii Hunter ended Carlos Carrasco's afternoon with a bases-clearing double down the left field line. That hit may not have been as big by WPA as Mauer's. However, it was the play that really put the game away for the Twins. While Hunter's double increased the Twins odds of winning by 8.4%, the bigger picture is what matters. The Twins began that fourth inning with a 63.7% chance of winning the game. Following Hunter's double, the Twins odds of winning jumped to 95.1% BUXTON CONTRIBUTES AGAIN Twins fans have seen a different Byron Buxton in his last two starts. He had two hits including his first MLB home run over the weekend. He had two important hits in this game as well: 7th inning, Eduardo Nunez was on third base and Buxton had a broken-bat single to right to give the Twins a 6-1 lead. WPA says that it increased the Twins odds of winning by just 0.6%, but insurance runs are always good. In the top of the 9th, Buxton led off with a huge home run just right of dead center field. Again, it was an insurance run late in the game to give the Twins a 7-1 lead, so WPA said it only increase the Twins odds of winning by 0.3% More important, the success has to be giving Buxton the confidence that he can contribute to this winning Minnesota Twins team beyond just his great defense. That's important in the next few days, and it's really important looking to the future. KYLE GIBSON DOMINATES Last week at Target Field, Kyle Gibson gave up six earned runs on seven hits in just 2.2 innings against this Cleveland team. He felt he let his team down, and he used that as motivation in this game to be better. The lanky right-hander threw six shutout innings on Wednesday afternoon. He gave up just four hits, walked two and struck out nine, a number he had reached just one time earlier in the season. Gibson gave the Twins exactly what they needed. WHAT'S NEXT? Mike Pelfrey takes the mound for the Twins in Game 2 against Cleveland. In his most recent start, last Friday night at Detroit, he gave up just one run on six hits in five innings. He struck out seven without issuing a walk. Generally speaking, we can tell pretty early what Pelfrey will do. If he can pitch like he did on Friday, the Twins have a chance. WILD CARD RACE As Game 2 is about to start, the Twins are now just one game behind the Los Angeles Angels and 1/2 game behind the Houston Astros. They are both playing tonight as well. Click here to view the article

When they broke it into super-slow motion, I thought it was pretty clear that he was out. I also believe that if you have to go to super-slow motion to review a call, the umpire shouldn't be penalized (if they even are) in any way for missing it.

Thank you! It's been a fun season! Hopefully it continues a bit longer!

Another point... if the Twins get to a Game 163, I don't care who is scheduled to start. And then if they get to a playoff series, I don't care who is lined up for Game 1. If it's Pelfrey or Milone, I don't care. I'll be so happy. I'm happy already with this season. Anything more at this point will be bonus! There are 6 games to go and they are not eliminated. This is fun!

I love this stuff... I think for individual games, WPA is fascinating. I'm not as convinced of its value for longer lengths of time because there are so many big moments throughout the course of a season and players are going to have good ones and bad ones. But, finding those key moments in any individual game are great. To mickeymental's point, if Mauer doesn't get on base, particularly double, nothing happens after that. Maybe he should get some of the WPA for Sano and Plouffe because they don't get their points if Mauer doesn't get his.

On Monday night, the Twins began their final week of the 2015 regular season with the first of four games in Cleveland. It won't be an easy task and it started with a game against reigning Cy Young Corey Kluber. Hours before the game, Tommy Milone was told that he would make the start in place of an ill Phil Hughes. He gave the Twins all they could have hoped for. The bullpen finished the job. The Twins pulled out a 4-2 win. It was the team's 81st game of the season, guaranteeing them a .500 record for the first time since 2010.Last Wednesday, Corey Kluber was making his return from a hamstring injury. He had a pitch limit in the game, but through three innings, he did not allow a run. However, the Twins were able to knock him out in the fourth inning with a four-spot against him. The Twins hitters clearly used the same game plan against Kluber on Monday night. They were aggressive early in the game. Kluber retired the first two batters. However, Joe Mauer hit the first pitch he saw off the wall in left-center field for a double. Miguel Sano came up and hit nearly the same spot with a double of his own, driving in Mauer. Trevor Plouffe came to bat, having missed Sunday's game at Target Field due to illness, and he launched his 22nd home of the season to give the Twins a 3-0 lead in the first inning. Kluber settled down and finished six innings, giving up four runs on seven hits. Mauer had two hits. Eddie Rosario, celebrating his 24th birthday, had three hits on the night. Chris Herrmann didn't have a hit, but he walked in his first plate appearances and was hit by a pitch his second time up.Probably even more important, Herrmann contributed while giving Kurt Suzuki a game off. Well, most of a game off. Herrmann was pinch hit for late in the game, so Suzuki still caught two innings, but he didn't have to catch nine. That is important. But, as we have learned time and time again, it all comes down to pitching. Tommy Milone was not scheduled to start again this year. He found out hours before the game that he would be making the start in place of Phil Hughes who was sick and had an IV earlier in the day. Milone had not pitched since September 17th when he gave up five earned runs in just 1.1 innings. Noting that he walked three batters in that time, he was shut down with a shoulder injury. He struggled a little bit the first two innings. In the first, he served up a long home run to Francisco Lindor but over time, he settled down. He had quick innings in the third and fourth. He gave up a leadoff triple to Jason Kipnis in the sixth, and he scored on a ground out one batter later. Milone gave up just the two runs in 5.2 innings. It was quite impressive, all things considered. Then came the bullpen. Blaine Boyer got the final out of the sixth inning. Casey Fien came in for the seventh frame. On Friday night, he really struggled and gave up three runs in that meltdown in Detroit. However, on this night, he gave up a hit in a scoreless inning. Glen Perkins was given the eighth inning. It's no secret that he has been struggling of late. In a great interview with Mackey and Judd on 1500ESPN, he was fully accountable and upfront regarding his struggles. Fans were on edge when he gave up a leadoff single to Mike Aviles on an 0-2 pitch to lead off the inning. However, he responded by striking out Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor. Michael Brantley grounded to first base for the third out. Kevin Jepsen came in for the ninth inning, trying to protect a two-run lead. He got three pop-ups to end a 1-2-3 inning for his 14th save of the season. A fast start by the offense. A solid outing from the starting pitcher. Timely hitting Bullpen getting their job done. These are the things that a team would like to get every night, but as the team is now down to just six games remaining, these will be even more magnified. As this article is written, the Astros' and Angels' games were just beginning on the West Coast. The Twins hope to make up some ground in the wild card race. On Tuesday night in Cleveland, the Twins will send Kyle Gibson to the mound. Gibson is coming off a bad start and is 10-11 with a 3.96 ERA. The Twins will face Cody Anderson who is 6-3 with a 3.31 ERA this season. Click here to view the article

I was going to write up some of my game thoughts from the Twins 6-4 loss last night to the Detroit Tigers. I had some ideas. I jotted them down. But, I thought it might be wise to just wait until morning to actually write them up. After sleeping on it, I arrive at the same conclusion. That was a tough one! Giving up a 4-0 lead in the late innings is certainly not ideal.That might be an understatement. After the last four season in which the Twins lost 90 or more games each year, 2015 has been fun. And, because of that fun, and the fact that the Twins are in contention on September 25th with just nine more games to play makes such a loss even more difficult on fans. Of course, as difficult as the loss was on the fans, it is likely ten-times more difficult on the players in that clubhouse, and particularly on Glen Perkins whose second-half slide may have reached a low point. THREE UP Some questioned the decision to have Mike Pelfrey make the Friday night start because of his road struggles throughout the 2015 season. At Target Field this year, Pelfrey is 4-4 with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 13 starts. Opponents hit just .248/.305/.323 (.628) off of him. On the road, he is 2-6 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP. Opponents have hit .347/.397/.484 (.881). And yet, Pelfrey came through when his team needed him. The righ-hander threw five innings and gave up just one run on six hits. He walked none and struck out seven. He was at just 85 pitches when Paul Molitor ended his night and went to the bullpen. The game was scoreless through the first four innings. In the top of the fifth, Tigers starter Matt Boyd began with walking the first two batters, Miguel Sano and Trevor Plouffe. After a Nick Castellanos throwing error, the bases were loaded for Eddie Rosario. The rookie has had many great moments in his rookie season, but when he launched a bases-clearing triple, it may have been the biggest moment of his year. It gave the Twins a 3-0 lead. Eduardo Escobar later hit a sacrifice fly, to second baseman Ian Kinsler, for the fourth run. Escobar leads MLB in triples with 15. He also added his 16th outfield assist in the game. THREE DOWN Things started out well for the bullpen as Blaine Boyer worked a scoreless sixth inning. Casey Fien got the seventh inning and it started with a strikeout. Dixon Machado hit a single, but Fien got a flyout from Rajai Davis for the second out. One out from getting out of the inning, he proceeded to walk Anthony Gose, the nine hitter. Ian Kinsler then hit a ground-rule double, a lucky break as Gose may have scored from first base. The Twins still had a 4-2 lead, and Glen Perkins came in. Glen Perkins was amazing in the first half. He was 28-28 in his save opportunities and recorded the final out of the All-Star Game for the second straight season. As Nick wrote yesterday, the second-half has been a huge struggle for the left-hander. With runners on second and third, Miguel Cabrera walked. That brought up Victor Martinez who has not been good against right-handers (.214) while hitting very well against southpaws (.348). Martinez came through with a two-run double to tie the game. Perkins was able to strike out JD Martinez to keep the game tied. Perkins stayed in for the 8th inning. Nick Castellanos led off the inning with a double. However, he struck out the next two batters. That brought up Rajai Davis, and we all know what happened then. On a full-count pitch, Davis launched an opposite field home run to give the Tigers a 6-4 lead. Perkins was going for the backdoor slider to get Davis, but as he said after the game, he just hung the pitch and Davis took advantage. It’s easy to first- or second-guess Molitor’s decisions in the seventh and eighth innings. Bringing in the left-hander to face Cabrera, Martinez and Martinez makes sense with Perkins going well, but how about when he’s struggling? Having Perkins, coming off of injuries, stay in for a second inning can be questioned as well. However, he got the two strikeouts and then just made a really bad pitch to Davis. If he throws the slider the way he throws it 95% of the time, he gets a strikeout or weak contact. If he takes out Perkins and brings in Tonkin at that point, then fans could wonder why he didn’t stick with Perkins. The Twins bullpen woes on Friday night certainly are magnified in a playoff race. Through the course a 162-game season teams are going to cough up leads, even four-run leads, several times. Likewise, teams are going to have tough nights with the bat. Last night, it was a combination. The bullpen melted down, but the offense had just two hits. Matt Boyd, the southpaw rookie, gave up just one hit. That was as big of an issue as the bullpen. Rosario gave the team the big hit after a couple of walks, but aside from that the offense did nothing. WILD CARD WATCH The Twins lost, but the Astros also lost, so the Twins are still just 1.5 games back for the second Wild Card spot. However, the Angels got a win, so they are just 0.5 games behind the Astros. Before the Cleveland series, I thought that the Twins would need to go 10-3 over their final 13 games to make the playoffs. They’ve gone 2-2 in the last four games, so now my thought is that they will need to go 8-1 down the stretch to make the playoffs. Tonight, the Twins will send rookie Tyler Duffey to the mound against Detroit. Along with Ervin Santana, he's been the team's best starter in the last four to five weeks. The Twins are now 78-75. And yes, I only came up with Two Up for the Three Up section. You’ll have to let me know if you can find a third from last night’s game. A good night's sleep didn't make that loss any less tough. Click here to view the article

Video from Baseball Tonight where Keith Law discussed the promotion of Max Kepler.

Eddie Rosario is having one of the best rookie seasons in Minnesota Twins history. He won’t be the American League Rookie of the Year. In fact, he may not even win the Twins top rookie award following the season. However, the emergence of Eddie Rosario in 2015 has been vital to the Twins success.The Twins used their fourth round pick in 2010 to take Rosario, a high school kid out of the mean streets of Guayama, Puerto Rico. He signed quickly and went to the GCL. He teamed with the likes of Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Kennys Vargas and Miguel Sano. Rosario hit a solid .294/.343/.438 (.781) with nine doubles, two triples and five home runs, but Miguel Sano was the player talked about. In 2011, he advanced to Elizabethton where he performed so well he was named the Appalachian Leaguer’s Player of the Year. He and Sano teamed to hit 41 home runs in the short season. Rosario hit .337/.397/.670 (1.068) with nine doubles, nine triples and 21 home runs. Sano hit .292/.352/.637 (.988) with 18 doubles, seven triples and 20 home runs. While Sano came into the organization as a top prospect. Rosario has been a Top 10 Twins prospect since that monster season in Elizabethton. In 2012, the duo advanced to Beloit for their first full-season action. Sano, just 19 then, hit .258/.373/.521 (.893) with 28 homers and 100 RBI on the season. Rosario was limited to just 95 games because he was hit in the face with a line drive during batting practice. He was taking ground balls at third base at the time. He hit .296/.345/.490 (.835) with 32 doubles, four triples and 12 home runs. As you recall, he had gone to the Instructional League after the 2011 season and moved to second base. It was certainly a work-in-progress, but he made improvements throughout the season. Of course, when the Snappers went to the playoffs, Rosario was right back in center field where his defense was always above average. Before the 2013 season, Rosario was named a representative of the team from Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic. He played left field most of that tournament. Sano and Rosario advanced to Ft. Myers to start the 2013 season. The Miracle had a terrific team. They clinched a first-half title about a week before the Florida State League All-Star Game. The day after they clinched a playoff berth, Rosario and Sano were promoted to AA New Britain. In their half-season with the Miracle, they both put up big numbers. Sano hit .330/.424/.655 (1.079) with 15 doubles, two triples and 16 home run. Rosario hit .329/.377/.527 (.903) with 13 doubles, five triples and six home runs. With the Rock Cats, Sano hit .236/.344/.571 (.915) with 15 double and 19 home runs. Meanwhile, Rosario hit .284/.330/.412 (.742), solid for a 21-year-old. In the fall, Rosario went to the Arizona Fall League. He hit just .238/.262/.275 (.537) in 20 games there. His on-field performance was the least of the concerns. When the AFL came to a close, Rosario returned to Puerto Rico and told his Puerto Rico Winter League GM that he was going to be suspended by MLB for PED usage. A month later, MLB announced that he was being suspended for a Drug of Abuse. Fast forward to spring of 2014. Sano missed the full season after having Tommy John surgery in March, and Rosario did not go to spring training. The Twins had excused him. He also had to miss the first 50 games of the season. Upon his return, he began with eight games in Ft. Myers before jumping back up to New Britain. This time with the Rock Cats, he hit just .237/.277/.396 over the final 79 games. Fortunately, he was able to go back to the Arizona Fall League where he hit an impressive .330/.345/.410 (.755) with six extra base hits. The hope was that it would springboard him to a big 2015 season. Rosario had a good showing at MLB spring training. Though his numbers were pretty similar to those he put up in New Britain in 2014, new manager Paul Molitor talked about how impressed he was with him defensively and how well he held his own against lefties. Still, he started this season in Rochester. The 23-year-old struggled in his AAA-debut. He hit just .242/.280/379 (.659) in 23 games with the Red Wings. When Oswaldo Arcia went on the disabled list the first week of May, it was Rosario who was called up from Rochester, not Aaron Hicks. Reports came out indicating that they wanted Aaron Hicks to continue hitting as he had been and that because it would be just a two-week stint with the Twins, it would be a good opportunity for Rosario. As you know, however, if a player comes up and gets the job done, he has the ability to stick. And that’s exactly what Eddie Rosario did. In fact, he has continued to be productive ever since and has become a fixture in the Twins lineup. He has far out-performed this minor league numbers the last two seasons. Now, in 113 games, he has hit .268/.290/.455 (.744) with 17 doubles, 14 triples, 11 home runs and 11 stolen bases. Defensively, he has proven that he is an above average corner outfielder. Not only does he have great range, but he has a strong, accurate arm which has accounted for 14 outfield assists. FanGraphs has him at 1.9 wins, a value of about $15.5 million. (Not bad for a guy making the league minimum for the next two seasons too. Sure, he will need to work on a few things to take the next step in his career and continue to progress. The key will be to improve upon his 109 to 14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That will help him to improve on his .290 on-base percentage. Will he be able to make that progress? There is reason for optimism that he can improve his numbers. He has struck out about 25% of the time in the big leagues. Through his minor league career, that number has been between 13% and 21%, so we could see a good reduction in strikeouts over time. More important, however, would be for him to take more walks. He is walking just 3.2% of the time this year in the big leagues. In his minor league career, he was never one to walk a lot, but he walked between 5% and 7% of his plate appearances. Not big numbers, but he could potentially double his walk output which would be huge. It has been a very good rookie season for Eddie Rosario, but as has been the case throughout his entire minor league career, it has been completely overshadowed by Miguel Sano. The third baseman, who has primarily DHd for the Twins, has hit .282/.399/.563 (.962) with 16 doubles and 17 home runs in 69 games. Sano has just three fewer strikeouts in 150 less plate appearances than Rosario. Sano is the one being touted in Rookie of the Year discussions along with Houston’s Carlos Correa and Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor. Meanwhile, Rosario continues to put up solid, all-around numbers with less fanfare. That may be the case nationally, and somewhat locally, but I guarantee that the efforts of Eddie Rosario have not been overlooked by Paul Molitor and his coaching staff. It hasn’t gone unnoticed by the front office. And, I am certain that the pitching staff appreciates what he does in the outfield with his range and his arm. Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano have been teammates for most of their young careers. Rosario has been in the shadows of Sano throughout that time, and yet, he has always been productive. He has been a big asset to the Minnesota Twins in 2015 and the goal will be for him to continue to improve over time. He may never get out from Sano’s large shadow, but he can be a long-time, productive big leaguer. Click here to view the article

It's impossible to know. If a guy appears ready in the minors, gets called up and struggles in the big leagues, does that mean he wasn't ready? If a guy appears to not be ready, gets called up and hits well, does that mean he was ready? If a guy looks ready, gets called up, hits really well right away, does that mean he was ready weeks ago, or that the extra time in the minors made him ready? No way to know.

He's really been terrific since the Twins signed him. Still just 24, there is still room for improvement. He's got the right mentality to be good. Just based on prospect rankings, Jeremy had him at about 11 or 12. I had him around 14-16 before the season. His curveball has always been his calling card, but he's got a good fastball too, and the changeup has certainly been solid at times too. It's been fun to see him come up and do well. More impressive is how he overcame that first start.

Monday marked the Twins last off day before the end of the season and provided a good chance to take a step back and survey what lies ahead. Minnesota opens a three-game series with Cleveland coming to town, with Tuesday marking the first of seven remaining games between the Twins and the Tribe. So essentially, more than half the Twins’ remaining 13 games come against Cleveland, a team which has underachieved virtually the entire season, but finds itself a mere 1.5 games behind the local nine.The series matchups don’t favor the Twins, either. Danny Salazar takes the mound for Cleveland Tuesday night, and he’s proven to be one of the most physically gifted pitchers in the American League, with 9.7 strikeouts per nine, a league-average groundball rate and a 3.48 ERA to go along with legit 95 mph heat. His changeup (27.2 percent whiff rate) is absolutely devastating as well. Things get no easier with Corey Kluber starting on Wednesday. And while he’s taken a bit of a step back — far less than most think, however — from last year’s Cy Young pace, he’s still had the Twins’ number all season long. He’s held them to a .085/.128/.146 batting line with a 1.38 ERA across three starts. In 26 innings, he’s allowed only 11 baserunners. Cody Anderson starts on Thursday, and while he’s a total wild card — he’s faced the Twins just once, and they smoked him — keep in mind that manager Terry Francona was willing to bump Trevor Bauer from the rotation to keep him in there. After a rough August, Anderson has a 1.78 ERA in four September starts. And if that isn’t tough enough, the upcoming four-game series with Cleveland promises to be just as tough. Not only are the odds good that the Twins will get Kluber again in the series opener on Monday, but that’s four games in a row down the stretch against the team which ranks fourth in the AL in starter ERA, first in strikeouts and second in FIP. It’s pretty easy to make an argument that this rotation and the Rays’ are in a dogfight to be the best in the AL. It’s not certain which Tigers team the Twins will find at Comerica after the first Cleveland series, but there are a couple things at play here. The Twins lost two of three to Detroit at Target Field last week, and this is probably a Tigers team that hasn’t totally forgotten the thrashing they took to end last season. The Twins took two of three from the Tigers in Detroit in mid-September last year and split a four-game series to end the season with two blowout wins when they were jockeying for position in the playoffs. The Tigers were summarily bounced from the playoffs in three straight by the Orioles and find themselves fighting to get out of the cellar at the present time with a 69-79 record — a game back of fourth-place Chicago. The other team in the Twins’ way of the end of the season is Kansas City, and while an 11-game lead wouldn’t suggest a team needing to get things together, it’s been a bit of a bumpy ride for the Royals for a while now. The Royals are 7-13 in their last 20 games and now are battling with Toronto for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Royals have a two-game lead as of this writing, and of course at this point it’s unclear where that’ll stand when they invade Target Field from Oct. 2-4, but ultimately it’d be ideal for the Twins if they have nothing left to play for. The odds don’t seem to favor it, however. So what’s a realistic need for the Twins record-wise in the 13 games that remain? Fangraphs’ Cool Standings presently gives the Twins a 6.1 percent chance of making the playoffs, and an expected final record of 82-80. That’s progress from the last four seasons, but disappointing to be sure. Not many teams get to the cusp of the playoffs after a rough stretch and revel in the fact that they almost made it, even if that represents considerable growth. Cool Standings projects 89 wins for the Yankees and the top Wild Card slot; the Twins would have to finish 13-0 to match that. So … that can clearly be ruled out. The projections suggest 85.4 wins for the Astros and 82.7 for the Angels; we’ll round to 85 and 83 for mathematical ease. At 76-73, the Twins would need to go 9-4 to match that projection for the Astros — and maybe 10-3 to be safe — and that’s assuming the Halos don’t flip the script. Going 7-6 would be enough to beat their projection and the Angels’ as well, but that would only claim the third Wild Card spot which, as of this writing, doesn’t exist. In short, the Twins are going to have to go all Chris Sale on Corey Kluber and friends if they’re going to punch their ticket into October. Well, further into October. The odds don’t favor it, but that’s why they play the games. This content originated at Cold Omaha here; please consider clicking through to support it. Click here to view the article