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Everything posted by Seth Stohs
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Of course... They're paid to be right... but sometimes the right things still don't work out... and vice versa.
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There aren't any 16-year-old American's signing. These guys are signing anywhere from 18-30 months earlier than the Americans.
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Correct... the thinking behind the trade (the process) was right... how it will turn out is to be seen. Right now, not looking great, but they have his rights for like 6-7 more years, so he could prove valuable.
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They could have, but I don't know enough about the international market to know what's out there. Signing the big name guys makes the splash, but sometimes the guys who sign for $10,000 do just as well. So, I'm in no position to question their international signing strategy.
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My thought is the Meyer to the 'pen is how it will go. If I'm wrong, great. He's a great person, so no matter which role he ends up in, I'll wish him the best. I think with the Twins starting pitching depth and his struggles last year, I think he's in the bullpen from now on. Again, if I'm wrong, that's fine. I've been wrong on several things before and will be again.
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Article: The End Of The Road
Seth Stohs replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Kirby Puckett was my favorite player of all time. After the news came out of his transgressions, I stopped thinking of him as more than my favorite player of all time. I can acknowledge that he wasn't a great person. That doesn't change what he is as a teammate, friend, all those things. Puckett remains my favorite player of all time. Torii Hunter has had a tremendous baseball career. He has put up great numbers. It's OK to say that he's one's favorite player while not agreeing with his personal beliefs. It's also OK to acknowledge that he was a great leader and teammate. -
There's a pretty good reason that Vielma is 8-12 places lower (don't want to give too much away) on the prospect ranking than Nick Gordon.
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There's not much more uncertain in baseball than international signings. Sano is one who appears to have made it, but most of the international guys who have signed for more than $3 million haven't made it. So there are no guarantees with any of them. See Michael Ynoa (brother of Twins minor leaguer Huascar Ynoa). Javier has all the tools. But for me, I'm combining so many factors. Some of the guys ahead of him on this list are much closer to the big leagues and are almost certain to be big leaguers. They have higher floors. Javier has as high a ceiling as the guys you'll see in the top 5 prospects, but his floor is that he may never get to Low A ball. My assumption is that he'll spend some time in the GCL in 2016 and next year at this time, he'll be a Top 5 guy.
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they're all within a small range of about 5-6 prospect rankings spots, so there's not really a significant difference. They all throw hard. They all have sliders. They all have struggled with their control. They all have the ability to be dominant relief pitchers. As those who have followed my prospect rankings for the last decade, I don't usually rank relief pitchers real high... So, to have these three guys this high is a positive for all three of them.
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If he could hit more, he'd be a top 8 type of guy... he'll never hit for any power, but if he can continue to grow and hit a few doubles, his defense will make him a big leaguer.
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Regarding International Players, in signing Wander Javier for $4 million, they went over their limit... Not sure how much more they could do without some negative effects.
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Today, my preliminary Top 50 Minnesota Twins Prospect countdown continues today with numbers 11 through 15. This group contains a couple of young, talented shortstops with room to grow. It also contains a couple of hard-throwing relievers and a southpaw with big upside coming back from major surgery. As always, please feel free to discuss these prospects in the comments below.Previous installments of this prospect ranking: · Part 1 (41-50) · Part 2 (31-40) · Part 3 (26-30) · Part 4 (21-25) · Part 5 (16-20) As a quick reminder, players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2016. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. (The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2016 - which Cody Christie, Jeremy Nygaard and I are working on - I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.) Top Prospects 11-15 #15 – Engelb Vielma - 22 – SS – Ft. Myers Miracle Vielma was signed by the Twins out of Venezuela in September of 2011. He’s listed at 5-11 and 150 pounds, though he might be up to 155 pounds. He spent 2012 in the Dominican Summer League. In 2013, he played 42 games in the GCL and ended his season with six games in Elizabethton. Despite the lack of Appy League time, he began the 2014 season in Cedar Rapids. In 112 games, he hit .266/.313/.323 (.636) with 13 doubles, four triples and a home run. He moved up to Ft. Myers for the 2015 season. In 120 games, he hit .270/.321/.306 (.627) with nine doubles, two triples and one home run. Over his final 90 games, he hit .298/.357/.329 (.686). Vielma has good speed. In 2015, he stole 35 bases in 47 attempts. He is a singles hitter who will need to gain strength to hit enough in the big leagues. However, it is his glove that gets him noticed. He has very good range and a strong arm. He will likely move up to Chattanooga for the 2015 season. Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A #14 – Wander Javier - 16 – SS – Did Not Play The Twins signed Javier out of the Dominican Republic for $4 million, a number over their international slot figure. It’s also the highest amount that the Twins have paid an international free agent from the Caribbean, topping the $3.15 million they signed Miguel Sano for. At 6-0 and 165 pounds, he has room to grow, gaining strength and speed. Most believe that he will be able to stick at shortstop though, as he is likely six years from the big leagues, a lot can happen. Though many believe his swing is long now, he could develop into an above average hitter with some power. It is likely the Twins will have him follow the same path as other top signings from the Dominican, such as Sano, Jorge Polanco, and Amaurys Minier. They began their first seasons in the Dominican Summer League but came to the States in time to play for the GCL Twins. Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A #13 – Alex Meyer - 25 – RHP – Rochester Red Wings/Minnesota Twins A year ago at this time, Meyer was coming off of a solid season as a starter in Rochester. To say 2015 was disappointing for Meyer is likely a huge understatement. He struggled in spring training. Then he couldn’t get many out as a starter early in the season for the Red Wings and was moved to the bullpen. As he was starting to pitch well, he was called up to the Twins and his two appearances did not go well at all. He was optioned back to Rochester and finished the season by pitching pretty well over the final six weeks. So there is the set up. The reality is that Alex Meyer still has all of the tools and the pitches that could make him a very good pitcher in the big leagues. Most likely, that will now happen out of the bullpen. However, he still throws very hard (upper-90s), has a very good slider, a bit of a change and the ability to miss bats. His primary problem in 2015, and years prior, was control, both in and outside the strike zone. However, in the latter part of 2015, control was not as much of an issue as it had been in previous years, so it’s very possible he comes back in spring training ready to contribute in the big leagues. Or, if he begins in Rochester and does well there, he could be brought up fairly early in the season. He has tremendous makeup and works hard. He’s got good perspective and it would be silly to discount his potential. Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (6), 2014 (3), 2013 (4) #12 – Lewis Thorpe – 19 – LHP – Did Not Pitch Thorpe missed the entire 2015 season after having Tommy John surgery in early April. He had signed with the Twins in July of 2012. He became a big prospect in 2013 when he grew, gained weight and started hitting 94 and 95 on his fastball. He also has a good curve ball and a strong change up. He also went 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA. In 2014, he started the season at extended spring training, but before the short-seasons began, he moved up to Cedar Rapids. In 16 starts there, he went 3-2 with a 3.52 ERA. He walked more than he had in the past (4.5 per nine), but he struck out 10 batters per nine innings despite being nearly four years younger than the average player in the league. It is likely that Thorpe will remain in Ft. Myers following spring training. He could return to game action as early as June. 2016 will be about getting some innings and keeping healthy. Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (12), 2014 (10) #11 – JT Chargois – 22 – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle/Chattanooga Lookouts Chargois was the Twins second-round pick in 2012 out of Rice University where he was co-closer with Tyler Duffey. Coming into the 2015 season, he had pitched just 16 innings as a professional, all at Elizabethton in 2012. He had elbow problems and the Twins had him rehab throughout the 2013 season only to have Tommy John surgery in mid-September of 2013. He missed the entire 2014 season as well. He did return to the mound during the Instructional League. Everyone was talking about his upper-90s (and occasionally triple digit) fastball. The Twins had him begin the 2015 season in Ft. Myers. In 16 games (15 IP), he posted a 2.40 ERA, walked five and struck out 19. He earned a mid-season promotion to Chattanooga. In 32 games (33 IP), he had a 2.73 ERA, walked 20 and struck out 34. Clearly the control will need to improve, but his big fastball and sharp slider make him very intriguing. They make him an easy choice to add to the 40-man roster in November as well. He will come to big league spring training and probably get a legitimate shot to compete for a bullpen job. Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A So, what do you think of Part 6, Prospects 11-15? On Thursday, we will begin our Top 10 Twins prospects and finish out with the Top 5 on Friday. Click here to view the article
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Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 6 (11-15)
Seth Stohs posted an article in Minor Leagues
Previous installments of this prospect ranking: · Part 1 (41-50) · Part 2 (31-40) · Part 3 (26-30) · Part 4 (21-25) · Part 5 (16-20) As a quick reminder, players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2016. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. (The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2016 - which Cody Christie, Jeremy Nygaard and I are working on - I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.) Top Prospects 11-15 #15 – Engelb Vielma - 22 – SS – Ft. Myers Miracle Vielma was signed by the Twins out of Venezuela in September of 2011. He’s listed at 5-11 and 150 pounds, though he might be up to 155 pounds. He spent 2012 in the Dominican Summer League. In 2013, he played 42 games in the GCL and ended his season with six games in Elizabethton. Despite the lack of Appy League time, he began the 2014 season in Cedar Rapids. In 112 games, he hit .266/.313/.323 (.636) with 13 doubles, four triples and a home run. He moved up to Ft. Myers for the 2015 season. In 120 games, he hit .270/.321/.306 (.627) with nine doubles, two triples and one home run. Over his final 90 games, he hit .298/.357/.329 (.686). Vielma has good speed. In 2015, he stole 35 bases in 47 attempts. He is a singles hitter who will need to gain strength to hit enough in the big leagues. However, it is his glove that gets him noticed. He has very good range and a strong arm. He will likely move up to Chattanooga for the 2015 season. Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A #14 – Wander Javier - 16 – SS – Did Not Play The Twins signed Javier out of the Dominican Republic for $4 million, a number over their international slot figure. It’s also the highest amount that the Twins have paid an international free agent from the Caribbean, topping the $3.15 million they signed Miguel Sano for. At 6-0 and 165 pounds, he has room to grow, gaining strength and speed. Most believe that he will be able to stick at shortstop though, as he is likely six years from the big leagues, a lot can happen. Though many believe his swing is long now, he could develop into an above average hitter with some power. It is likely the Twins will have him follow the same path as other top signings from the Dominican, such as Sano, Jorge Polanco, and Amaurys Minier. They began their first seasons in the Dominican Summer League but came to the States in time to play for the GCL Twins. Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A #13 – Alex Meyer - 25 – RHP – Rochester Red Wings/Minnesota Twins A year ago at this time, Meyer was coming off of a solid season as a starter in Rochester. To say 2015 was disappointing for Meyer is likely a huge understatement. He struggled in spring training. Then he couldn’t get many out as a starter early in the season for the Red Wings and was moved to the bullpen. As he was starting to pitch well, he was called up to the Twins and his two appearances did not go well at all. He was optioned back to Rochester and finished the season by pitching pretty well over the final six weeks. So there is the set up. The reality is that Alex Meyer still has all of the tools and the pitches that could make him a very good pitcher in the big leagues. Most likely, that will now happen out of the bullpen. However, he still throws very hard (upper-90s), has a very good slider, a bit of a change and the ability to miss bats. His primary problem in 2015, and years prior, was control, both in and outside the strike zone. However, in the latter part of 2015, control was not as much of an issue as it had been in previous years, so it’s very possible he comes back in spring training ready to contribute in the big leagues. Or, if he begins in Rochester and does well there, he could be brought up fairly early in the season. He has tremendous makeup and works hard. He’s got good perspective and it would be silly to discount his potential. Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (6), 2014 (3), 2013 (4) #12 – Lewis Thorpe – 19 – LHP – Did Not Pitch Thorpe missed the entire 2015 season after having Tommy John surgery in early April. He had signed with the Twins in July of 2012. He became a big prospect in 2013 when he grew, gained weight and started hitting 94 and 95 on his fastball. He also has a good curve ball and a strong change up. He also went 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA. In 2014, he started the season at extended spring training, but before the short-seasons began, he moved up to Cedar Rapids. In 16 starts there, he went 3-2 with a 3.52 ERA. He walked more than he had in the past (4.5 per nine), but he struck out 10 batters per nine innings despite being nearly four years younger than the average player in the league. It is likely that Thorpe will remain in Ft. Myers following spring training. He could return to game action as early as June. 2016 will be about getting some innings and keeping healthy. Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (12), 2014 (10) #11 – JT Chargois – 22 – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle/Chattanooga Lookouts Chargois was the Twins second-round pick in 2012 out of Rice University where he was co-closer with Tyler Duffey. Coming into the 2015 season, he had pitched just 16 innings as a professional, all at Elizabethton in 2012. He had elbow problems and the Twins had him rehab throughout the 2013 season only to have Tommy John surgery in mid-September of 2013. He missed the entire 2014 season as well. He did return to the mound during the Instructional League. Everyone was talking about his upper-90s (and occasionally triple digit) fastball. The Twins had him begin the 2015 season in Ft. Myers. In 16 games (15 IP), he posted a 2.40 ERA, walked five and struck out 19. He earned a mid-season promotion to Chattanooga. In 32 games (33 IP), he had a 2.73 ERA, walked 20 and struck out 34. Clearly the control will need to improve, but his big fastball and sharp slider make him very intriguing. They make him an easy choice to add to the 40-man roster in November as well. He will come to big league spring training and probably get a legitimate shot to compete for a bullpen job. Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A So, what do you think of Part 6, Prospects 11-15? On Thursday, we will begin our Top 10 Twins prospects and finish out with the Top 5 on Friday.- 73 comments
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According to LaVelle E. Neal of the Star-Tribune, Torii Hunter has decided to retire from playing baseball. Torii Hunter decided last offseason to return to the organization he grew up in, the organization he often says changed him from a boy to a man. And now the 40-year-old will begin the next chapter of his life after helping the Twins return to competitive baseball play.Hunter told Neal today, "I'm sad because it's all I've known for half of my life." He spent parts of 19 seasons in the big leagues. He won nine Gold Glove Awards. He played in five All Star games. He won a Silver Slugger Award. He played for the Twins, the Angels and the Tigers, playing in the postseason most of those seasons. He turned 40 in July, and now he says it's enough. “But mentally, I think it’s time. I still love the game, but time has taken a toll on me mentally and physically.” Hunter retires with some pretty impressive career numbers. Overall, he hit .277/.331/.461 (.793) with 498 doubles, 39 triples and 353 home runs. He stole 195 bases and supplied many web gems for his fans. He also retires a Twins player, something that meant a lot to him, his teammates, the organization and to the fans. He leaves as one of the best players in organization history. He is in the top ten among Twins hitters all time in many statistical categories despite spending seven season in other organizations. Hunter is a leader. He has ties around the game. He has expressed interest in front office positions. Congratulations to Torii Hunter on a great career – one that began in 1993 when he was selected by the Twins in the first round out of Little Rock Arkansas and ended with the same organization and a fan base that loves him! Click here to view the article
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Hunter told Neal today, "I'm sad because it's all I've known for half of my life." He spent parts of 19 seasons in the big leagues. He won nine Gold Glove Awards. He played in five All Star games. He won a Silver Slugger Award. He played for the Twins, the Angels and the Tigers, playing in the postseason most of those seasons. He turned 40 in July, and now he says it's enough. “But mentally, I think it’s time. I still love the game, but time has taken a toll on me mentally and physically.” Hunter retires with some pretty impressive career numbers. Overall, he hit .277/.331/.461 (.793) with 498 doubles, 39 triples and 353 home runs. He stole 195 bases and supplied many web gems for his fans. He also retires a Twins player, something that meant a lot to him, his teammates, the organization and to the fans. He leaves as one of the best players in organization history. He is in the top ten among Twins hitters all time in many statistical categories despite spending seven season in other organizations. Hunter is a leader. He has ties around the game. He has expressed interest in front office positions. Congratulations to Torii Hunter on a great career – one that began in 1993 when he was selected by the Twins in the first round out of Little Rock Arkansas and ended with the same organization and a fan base that loves him! https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/658802780707147776
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Article: AFL Recap Week 2: Bullpen Promise
Seth Stohs replied to Steve Lein's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
He did actually pitch one other inning in a game the previous week but it was rained out so there is no box score for it. I know AB Walker had an RBI double in that partial game as well.- 6 replies
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I know one thing... it's not a bias. As I've said previously, whether it's in this thread or one of the previous ones, I typically don't rank players until they play in the GCL. I think that international signings are always very interesting. I certainly think that Javier has a big upside based on reports. I've seen minimal video. I don't know the level of competition he's playing against. I'd like to see him put up numbers in the States before making too strong of a case for him. If he comes to the States next spring - my guess is he won't go to minor league camp but will go to the DSL and then over to the GCL when that season starts - he could jump into the Top 10 easily, especially with graduations next spring. As for Gordon vs Javier... it wouldn't even be fair for me to comment on that. I think Gordon's upside is really high, and I've seen him... it's not really even fair to compare the two at this time. Just so much different.
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I love when that happens! That's why I love following minor league development! Every minor leaguer's story is a little bit different. We all like the Miguel Sano's and Byron Buxton's, but I love the stories of Tommy Watkins, and Chris Heintz, and Chris Colabello, and Caleb Thielbar, and Ryan O'Rourke better... as a story, that is. And, I always try to point out that prospect rankings are for talk, discussion, recognition, etc. We like to pretend they are some sort of indicator of future success, but there are too many examples of that not being the case.
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Yeah, it's definitely not a secret that a lot of people like Navarreto... I still doubt that BA (or, Mike Berardino, as it is) will have him in their top 30. But maybe. I fully admit I'm going to likely have him ranked higher than most, if not all... and that's OK with me. Prospect lists are, and should be, based some on gut feelings too. If there's one thing that prospect rankings shouldn't be based on, it's stats. Especially in the lower levels of the minor leagues. They're part of the equation, but tools, potential, et all, are as important.
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Yup, when I do my prospect rankings, I'm certain there will always be questions and comments and I'm 100% OK with that. We all value certain things more or less, and that can also vary by position. Again, my hope is that when my rankings are done, people will write up their own personal top 30 or top 50 lists, either as blogs or in a forum. They're fun to discuss.
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I'll reply... these are just my opinions, so I don't care if people disagree. I would think people would. If we all agreed exactly the same on every prospect, what fun would that be. 1.) no one is telling me where to rank people, but I'll take any opinions and listen to them. People I've talked to have talked about his defense and offensive potential... but mainly it's a gut feel. I don't think his ceiling is backup catcher. I think he can be a solid starter, someday. Maybe not. In fact, odds are against him, as they are all minor leaguers. 2.) I mean, you can if you want... but he's been with the Twins, the Angels and now the Royals... those teams find value in him as a backup catcher. Teammates tout his intelligence and what he brings to the team. I frankly don't care about his bWAR or whatever. Whether we (fans who think we know more than front office people) like it or not, he provides value in the eyes of the people that matter most. 3.) I skimmed my rankings... I don't think I ever had Butera in the top 30. 4.) Fair enough... but then Buxton and Hicks and Plouffe hit 97 in high school, maybe they should be bullpen guys too. 5.) It's possible I ranked two backup big league catchers in my preliminary top 20. It's also possible that neither one of them will make it to the big leagues. It's possible one does and the other doesn't. It's possible they both do, one becomes a starter and the other is a backup.
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Weeding Through Molitor's Messages
Seth Stohs commented on Ted Schwerzler 's blog entry in Off The Baggy
I would say that what Molitor says regarding players is much, much more important for us to read than what St. Peter says. Molitor and Ryan and the front office are involved in these discussions. St. Peter likely gets briefed or maybe a few notes. But he'll have 0 input on player decisions. St. Peter is good for information on stuff off the field. I don't mean that as a slight to him or anything, but as President, he's got a ton to worry about and has to (and should) leave all baseball decisions to the baseball people. Also, realize that at the org meetings, they talk about everything. Every possible scenario. There's a lot of information. And also remember, what Molitor or anyone says publicly is only part of the story... you have to read beyond the quotes. Would Molitor want Torii Hunter back? Absolutely, no question about that. But that'll be on Hunter (to want to) and Ryan to be ok with the details. Could Buxton use more AAA time? I think that's quite reasonable. The Berrios thing... Molitor acknowledged that there was likely some business side to him not coming up. 1.) I don't think that was bout arbitration or free agency. 2.) I do think it was more about the 40 man roster. The Twins have proven over and over that, although they should think about arbitration and especially free agency timelines, they haven't. If they think someone is ready opening day, they'll go with it. So again, have to look past the quotes, to the history and to some common sense. Cotts - Sure, they'll probably evaluate a lot of lefty relievers who are free agents. They may even bring in a couple to compete... I'd be surprised if Cotts is back. Sano to the OF - I'll believe that when I see that. Need OF depth - they know players will read this stuff... can't just tell them that things will be handed to them. Hicks had a good 6 weeks. Rosario doesn't walk. Arcia's situation. If it was me, I'd go Rosario, Buxton, Hicks in the OF, but there isn't anything certain about any of them. Anyway, just some of my thoughts. I was glad to hear that SS is Escobar's job at this point.

