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Everything posted by Danchat

  1. It sounds like the Twins are looking for a one year stopgap SS, so I don't expect them to go after the Story/Semien types.
  2. They've done what they can, the problem is that Cleveland is a below average LG, Bradbury and Cole are both bad, and Udoh is also below average (more due to penalties than actual play). The interior is just bad.
  3. Yeah... all I've seen is confirmation that they are not linked to most guys out there. Reportedly they plan on spending money mostly on pitching, but... you'd think we would have heard something by now. - Thinking over it, the only thing I've read is that they've talked to Pineda about a return. That's about it.
  4. Ah, so it was you all along... I had done some more research on pitching vs hitting in the playoffs, but I just couldn't find anything after crunching some numbers for a good hour. So yeah, that got kind of frustrating. But on the topic of the debate, I think it's still very close to a 50-50% importance between the two. Especially since hitting and pitching happen in a vacuum unlike other sports, where time of possession or players who play both offense and defense could affect things.
  5. Phil Hughes was a success, but then he was extended, thus killing most the value of the initial signing.
  6. It sounds like Baez is close to signing...
  7. How would Spielman have the foresight to know if Tomlinson was going to be vaccinated back in March? We had no idea back then who was planning on getting the vaccine and who wasn't.
  8. The Mets are getting their signings in before the lockout begins.... I like this version of the MLB offseason a lot more!
  9. With the 2021 prospect additions to the 40 man roster complete, I thought I'd make a quick article detailing the main prospects who will be up for Rule 5 eligibility in 2022. Yeah, it's pie in the sky at this point, but this is likely going to be a long and quiet offseason, so why the heck not? It will be fun to look back on this in a year's time... If I/we can remember that. I've chosen 10 players who might be worth protecting (9 who will be first eligible): C Alex Isola - A 29th rounder from the 2019 class, Isola had a really strong 2021 season at the plate for a catcher. Outside of the 3 main catchers at/near the MLB level, this organization does not have very much catching talent in the minors, so protecting him could become a priority if he has a good 2022 season (hopefully in AA?). 2B/3B Spencer Steer - After tearing up A+ Cedar Rapids, Steer's bat cooled off at AA, but not at an alarming rate. He profiles as a power hitter who doesn't strike out as much as other hitters in our organization do. 2B/UTL Edouard Julien - The 18th rounder out of Auburn had an absurd 2021 season, with walks galore, 34 stolen bases, and some power (18 HRs). 2B/3B Yunior Severino - I suspect he will not be taken in the 2021 Rule 5 draft, but if he continues his hot streak on which he concluded the 2021 season, the Twins could have no choice but to protect him. OF/DH Matt Wallner - Probably the best-known prospect on this list, Wallner has incredible power. His K rates do scare me, though. I would get him learning how to play 1B since he has no business playing OF in the majors. OF Misael Urbina - He'll need to have a breakout year in 2022 to be considered. He has sky-high potential, but struggled to hit at Fort Myers. That's not surprising for a 19 year old. SP Simeon Woods-Richardson - The Jays challenged SWR by starting him at AA, but he should repeat there. He is a Top 100 prospect by many rankings and would be a lock to be protected. SP Matt Canterino - He's got an electric arm, but we're getting to the point where you wonder if he'll ever be able to stay healthy for a full season. Having pitched 48 innings in the past 3 years, you'd have to think he will end up as a reliever. SP Louie Varland - After concluding a dominant 2021, Varland should reach AA at some point in 2022. If he keeps up his torrid pace, he'll need to be protected. RP Yennier Cano - I expect he gets added to the 40 man mid-way through 2022. He's got the stuff to be a very good MLB reliever. Did I miss anyone?
  10. I don’t think any of the Cs you named will be starting in LF - well, Cave might get a few, but we’ll probably see Arraez, Larnach, Kirilloff and Rooker out there more. Sure, those FAs would be a nice addition but I don’t think they can afford to skimp on the more important positions like the rotation and SS.
  11. I don't think players are ruling out the Twins as a landing spot - I have little doubt that pitchers would sign with the Twins if they were the highest bidder. But we have reports that the Twins have not been interested in most of the starters who have signed so far and this FO typically does not bid high on these guys when they do make offers. With those two factors in mind, they don't seem likely to be landing any of the mid-to-high end starters out there.
  12. Wow, didn’t think the Rays had it in them to make a deal like this. I’d offer that deal to Franco, even with just 70 games played in the majors. If you wait a couple more years the price tag probably jumps past $350M.
  13. I don’t foresee service time being an issue for any of our prospects - and hopefully the new CBA will fix the issue with the teams abusing the system.
  14. Well, the Giants got DeScalfani and Wood back, and now this: I know Wolfson doesn't have a ton of fans here, but I don't see any reason to doubt his reports. At this point, the Twins have watched a lot of starting pitchers sign quickly, and we only know of an offer to Andrew Heaney. If anybody is expecting an "aggressive" offseason for the Twins... well, I wouldn't get your hopes up.
  15. Well, to be more accurate, they saved around $10.7M in 2022 (around Berrios' last arb salary), and then $15-18M in 2023-2026 and then $24M in 2017 and 2028. To answer the question, I would take Berrios and his contract, but I don't hate the Twins' side of it. Unless they continue to fail to develop prospects and spend the money on mediocre FAs, of course...
  16. I disagree, I think he’s a near lock for a roster spot. I am guessing he will start on the bench and will hopefully have a short leash. Buxton is absolutely capable of getting hurt in Spring Training…
  17. Agreed, not only is he right-handed and a good compliment to lefties on this team, but he was faaar more competent in 2020 than Cave was, but also had a disastrous 2021. And he's two years younger. Though I would guess his projected arbitration cost (around $3M?) made him untradeable. There is still enough talent on this team to be mediocre. Meanwhile, Baltimore doesn't have a single veteran signed for 2022. I mean, Buxton doesn't even play 50% of the games the past 4 years or so, and it's not like we've turned into the Orioles without him. And we actually played better after Berrios was traded... 2021 was a disaster, but I think you're mistaken if you think the Twins are going to become the 2011-2014 versions for the next few years. Then again, they may be stuck wavering around .500 the next few years, which is also a bad outcome.
  18. He was one of the league's better 4th OFs in 2018 & 2019. Baseball Reference had him at 1.7 WAR in his rookie season - I'd give up a lotto ticket for that again. Would you really prefer to hold onto every single pitching prospect of marginal value when the major league team could be upgraded, even if the move isn't substantial?
  19. I think there is a decent chance we see Palacios as a Twin in 2022, but Severino? He's going to start in A+ this year, and if things go well he should end up in AA near the midpoint. I don't think he's particularly close to impacting the 2022 team. Spencer Steer is clearly ahead of him (as a probable second baseman, like Severino).
  20. You'd have to define "decent" pitching prospect... I don't think Gil was ever seen as anything other than a wildcard. He had only pitched in rookie league as a 19 year old when they traded him right before his age 20 season. The Yankees developed him from a lottery ticket into a legitimate top 10 prospect - good for them, but the real issue is that the Twins have been completely unable to develop their own fringe prospect pitchers into MLB arms. Getting a MLB ready 4th OF for a longshot prospect who isn't going to be relevant in the majors for another 4 years is a fine move in my book. It just gets worse the more they trot him out there despite losing the ability to hit, alongside the organization's inability to develop pitchers.
  21. I really don't see the point... there are better 4th OFs out there (a right-handed one would be nice) and now he's been guaranteed a 40 man spot through Spring Training. I guess the FO is convinced they can fix him...
  22. I don't agree at all - getting Ryan and Stroman was quite the overpay for Cruz, but no credible sources were rating them as better prospects than Martin and Woods-Richardson. The 2 Berrios prospects are a fair bit younger than the 2 Cruz prospects, and you seem to be calling them better just because they are closer to the MLB level despite not having the ceiling that Martin and SWR have. Even if they do give Rosario $8M, does it change anything with the 2021 season? While Eddie would have given the offense a nice boost on paper, he was awful for Cleveland in the first half of the year and missed nearly 2 months in the middle of the season with an injury. Not dissimilar to Sano's 2021 season, where he started off unplayable but got hot in the final 2/3 months, and yet he draws tons of criticism here despite the RBIs and OPS. Agreed, the root of the issue was that our available money needed to go to pitching... and yes, repeating the same Rosario debates is tiring and it looks like I'm part of the problem. There were plenty of other players who could have been signed for $8M that would have helped this team out a lot (Robbie Ray, anyone?).
  23. Yeah, I get that, but I still don't get why they didn't get Hamilton up just to see how he'd fare in 15-20 MLB innings. There is ample space on the 40 man to keep him around - heck, they've bothered to keep Coulombe and Minaya on the roster, not sure why Hamilton couldn't have. I suppose he's out of options, so if he failed to make the Opening Day Roster he'd have to clear waivers. But then again, our bullpen has several guys with 0 options: Minaya, Coulombe, Cotton, Smeltzer, and Thorpe. I don't see what is keeping Hamilton from being listed among those names above.
  24. Guys I'd DFA without a second thought: OF Cave, OF Garlick, UTL Astudillo, RP Coulombe, RP Thorpe, SP Barnes Guys on the fringe: 1B/DH Rooker, SP Smeltzer, RP Minaya, RP Jax, RP Garza Jr., RP Cotton, RP Stashak There will be better guys available on minor league deals than the likes of Cave/Garlick/Astudillo, Thorpe hasn't pitched well nor has durability, Coulombe could be easily brought back on a MILB deal, and Barnes is a AAAA guy at best. There is plenty of room here to protect the Rule 5 prospects and then start signing FAs.
  25. I expect them not to waive the white flag after one bad season... sure, I don't expect them to be a contender every year, but we're already talking about trying to rebuild this roster so soon after back-to-back division titles. Part of the frustration is probably from the failure to develop talent from the minors, and when that talent has been realized, it's come from the guys that escaped the organization.
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