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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Jeremy I'm curious to get your thoughts on signing bonuses for the various names being talked about -Wright, Greene, McKay, Lewis, Gore, specifically, but also some 2nd tier guys like Adell. Do you have a sense of the price points for any of these guys?
  2. Willihammer
    They haven't settled on a price yet, or the two sides haven't begun talking price yet? When do those conversation usually start?
  3. Willihammer
    499 of the S&P's 500 index have reported Q1 results. YoY earnings grew at 14%, highest since Q3 of 2011. Quite a streak we've been on.
  4. Willihammer
    I would agree with this. We're in first place, and that's something. But, after getting socked by the Rockies, Astros, and pretty much every other decent team besides the Orioles, I think its clear the Twins are in another 00s situation where they're good enough to beat up on a weak division but not good enough to advance in the playoffs. We've been outscored 122 - 68 against >.500 teams. That's a wide enough differential that I wouldn't fault the FO for selling Santana -if there's a strong offer out there. But if there's not, then turn around and become buyers. But doing nothing seems like the worst option.
  5. Willihammer
    Boy jimbo it looks like a W to me.
  6. Willihammer
    Trade or keep, tough call. But man, my enthusiasm for this season has really taken a hit with all these pitching meltdowns.
  7. Willihammer
    Remember when we wanted to extend Santiago?
  8. Willihammer
    Not based on those stats he doesn't.
  9. Willihammer
    Yes, I was trying to keep the range reasonable, based on statistical comps from the top college picks mentioned in this thread. Gausman, Rodon, Appel etc. had very similar college careers to Wright whereas David Price and Steve Strasburg didn't. Unless there's someone we're forgetting there's not a lot of college guys drafted recently who've gone on to perform at the level of a David Price after having put up Wright-type numbers in college. The one guy who I can think of would be Scherzer although his college career was weird. His junior season looks like an extreme outlier in retrospect.
  10. Willihammer
    I was higher on McKay a month ago but today I'd pass. The velo drop around 55-60 pitches is a real problem IMO. Gotta be able to log innings to be a front of the rotation guy. I worry he'll end up a Gibson-like 4-5 or in the pen because of that.
  11. Willihammer
    Rodon and Gausman are about comparable too from a stats standpoint. Based on that I think a range of outcomes for Wright would be, Appel/Gausman at the low end with Cole / Rodon as the ceiling. Would Twins fans be happy with that?
  12. Willihammer
    From a stats standpoint he compares less favorably to Strasburg and Price. About comparable to Cole and Appel. Better than Hochevar. I am blanking on Burlington.
  13. Willihammer
    I'm not sure what the issues were with those players specifically. IIRC Funkhauser was an early top-10 pick by the industry but disappointed and he elected to go back his senior year rather than take #35 money. Evidently his senior year didn't go as planned. It goes both ways, sometimes players who don't sign flop anyways. I'd rather have players than some bonus savings leftover though. If you look at Funkhouser now he's striking out 14.1 / 9 in A ball for Detroit.
  14. Willihammer
    Jeremy, if you had to guess, what would you say the price points are for each of the players in the top tier? Feel free to guess on 5/6 as well.
  15. Willihammer
    I don't think it would be much trouble. But, even if is, that savings can come in handy later too. Checkout this review of the 2015 draft. One in eight picks taken in rounds 11-20 didn't sign. Righthanded high school pitchers were particularly difficult to sign later in the draft. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/7/17/8996381/unsigned-mlb-draft-picks-first-20-rounds-2015
  16. Willihammer
    Right. For anyone wondering why Smith is getting a look, the reason is his price would be significantly less than most others being talked about for 1-1. If we're trying to get max value out of the draft as a whole, it doesn't necessarily make sense to take the BPA starting with the first pick. Most would agree that isn't Smith. Question, what if Smith would sign for $4m? Ie. #10 money? What about $3.5m (#15 slot)? How low would the price have to be for the pick to make sense?
  17. Willihammer
    Smith has trimmed his k-rate, increased his walk rate, and power in every season at Virginia. Faedo's k-rate is falling and his bb-rate rising. There might still be more upside with Faedo but the trends are worse.
  18. Willihammer
    Interesting point. Wouldn't you say that the ultra low strikeout numbers and rave reviews about his hit tool make him an above average candidate to successfully make the transition to a bat with a smaller sweet spot?
  19. Willihammer
    We got some GM owners here right? Looks like they're facing emissions standards-cheating allegations similar to VW: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-lawsuit-idUSKBN18L25Y
  20. Willihammer
    I understand that much. My question is about your baseline. 1/4 way through the season the Twins are 7 games over .500. Are you suggesting that shouldn't factor into their decisionmaking?
  21. Willihammer
    What do you mean the starting point isn't 1/4 way through the season?
  22. Willihammer
    The answer is staring us in the face- Garver up, Gimenez and his 0.00 ERA to the pen.
  23. Willihammer
    That said, ideally they find a way to improve the club in 2018 as well. If not 2019 too.
  24. Willihammer
    I'm enjoying the ride too but I can't take it as given that the Twins are on an upward trajectory and will automatically be better in 2018 and beyond just because the core is young. Knuckle pushups, toy drones, intoxicated boating trips, etc (ok those are extreme examples). But there's no sure things in sports so when you find yourself in first place at this juncture then almost always you should be thinking along the lines of carpe diem IMO.
  25. Willihammer
    Yeah, ditto Buxton. I would be looking at Rosario instead. BTW here is the link to the Wetmore piece: http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/05/wetmores-5-thoughts-5-things-twins-can-keep-good-times-rolling/
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