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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Moore's "timing" was 2 months off, not 1-2 years. KCR through May: 22-30 June-Sept: 64-46 Hosmer, Moustakas & Perez though May: .656 OPS Hosmer, Moustakas & Perez June-Sept : .819 OPS They dug themselves a hole early, then rebounded to finish at 86 wins. They weren't so far off from the playoffs as everyone seems to think around here. In fact, Moore's "timing" was pretty much dead-on I'd say.
  2. Willihammer
    All because someone refused to go 5 years on Hunter.
  3. Willihammer
    Pomeranz? Ogh, gutpunch.
  4. Willihammer
    From where I'm standing it was the Twins' overvaluing of comp picks that's partly responsible for getting us into this mess. I'd gladly take Drew over another Shooter Hunt.
  5. Willihammer
    Gardy's loving it. I would too, it would keep Cletus off the roster anyway.
  6. Willihammer
    I don't see the appeal.
  7. Willihammer
    Ditto. Doogie had some juicy insights
  8. Willihammer
    Nitpick: Sano hit 35 HRs last year.
  9. Willihammer
    Can't hit HRs at Coors. Trees in the outfield.
  10. Willihammer
    I didn't watch him pitch, but numbers-wise it has to be Blyleven. Higher peak and larger output.
  11. Willihammer
    I almost agree with you actually. I remember watching the Braves lose all those playoff series back in the 90s and I always thought Glavine was the 3rd best, if not the 4th best pitcher on his own team (when Milwood was on it). In terms of "stuff," I'd put Glavine behind guys like Al Leiter and Kevin Brown even, to say nothing of Johnson, Pedro, Schilling, etc. And the peripheral, strikeout type stats (and even things like opponent OPS and WAR) back that up. Glavine has so much longevity though, that it offsets. When you pitch for 22 years, I don't think you don't have to be the best of the best.
  12. Willihammer
    For position players, the Hall is less exclusive. 236 players elected whose careers span 1871-2004. Average career length of 16.6 years. Over two HoF position players break into the MLB each year. There are, on average 30 active HoF position players at any given moment. So each year about 3 HoFers retire (incl. pitchers). Meaning if the Hall is to maintain its current level of exclusivity, they should be electing just 3 players every year. Or to be precise, something like 10 players every 3 years.
  13. Willihammer
    I messed up. 7 active HoF pitchers in a 12 year span would be a really dry stretch of HoF talent. The correct average is seventeen HoF pitchers will be active in any given 12 year stretch. And at any given moment, there are, on average, 9 pitchers in some phase of their career who will wind up in the HoF. A lot more than I initially calculated.
  14. Willihammer
    Remember the Porcello/Scherzer speculation a couple weeks ago? I wonder if Beane's asking price on Parker or Milone would be all that different, or if just throwing in some cash on top of a prospect package would sway him. edit: then again, I'm not sure either of those guys is better than Anderson.
  15. Willihammer
    But should the ~5th best pitcher of his era get into the Hall? How many HoF pitchers are active at any given time? Should that change? Were the 1990s-2000s just a golden era for starting pitching? Does the bar move, or is it fixed? I consulted BB-Ref for some perspective. There've been 69 pitchers voted into the Hall, spanning the seasons 1871-1988. The average career length is 16.9 years. Therefore for any given 12-year stretch (like 1991-2002), you can expect to touch the careers of 7 different HoF pitchers. And according to these figures, Glavine looks to be about the 5th best pitcher from this 12 year stretch. Which, if you believe in a moving bar (and maybe even if you don't), makes him a HoFer.
  16. Willihammer
    Will be interesting to see what the new agreement says about players who voluntarily retire. I know in the past this has been a sticking point.
  17. Willihammer
    Hm, well if the As think they can swap out Cespedes to the DBacks for pitching then backfill with Arcia then I think the Twins might be better served just trading with the DBacks. Or better yet, exhausting the budget before trading away guys like Arcia.
  18. Willihammer
    My impression is that TJs are a more reliable recovery than shoulder surgeries. Therefore I would expect the price to be higher. And again, unless the Twins intend to enter the Tanaka sweepstakes or signing Santana/Garza I think they have to be open to paying whatever price that is.
  19. Willihammer
    Oh yeah I missed that. So we're not talking about a hamstring pull or turf toe or Justin Morneau back spasms that show up every other September. And if the Twins can pay something like the Nats did for Fister...
  20. Willihammer
    I was skeptical about the height advantage assumption but the Trackman studies written in recent years have brought me around to it. The one thing Lincecum does is launch off the rubber so his extension is effectively closer to your average 6 and a half footer. More extension > shorter flight times > faster "effective" velocity. Taller pitcher will be able to extend farther on average. I don't believe there's any evidence that height correlates with durability though.
  21. Willihammer
    [TABLE=width: 128] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64]pos[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64]OPS[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]SS[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]0.607[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]CF[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]0.616[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]RF[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]0.654[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]OF[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]0.665[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]LF[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]0.684[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]total[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]0.686[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]3B[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]0.691[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]1B[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]0.709[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]2B[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]0.714[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]DH[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]0.716[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]C[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]0.897[/TD] [/TABLE] 2013 OPS by position.
  22. Willihammer
    Well let's look at the injury history http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57286 2007: Concussion from a car accident, 29 days missed 2009: blister, 10 days missed 2010: Flexor tendon strain, 40 days missed 2010: elbow inflammation, 56 days missed 2011: Tommy John surgery (Jul 14) .... 2012 (Sept): belly strain, 20 days missed 2013: ankle sprain, 120 days missed Most of that time is related to the elbow so if TJ fixed it, I think its reasonable to expect him to throw more innings in 2014. 4 months for an ankle sprain does seem like a lot though.
  23. Willihammer
    Drew would be a good pickup IMO. Twins have too many sub-.300 OBP batters in the bottom half. Those guys are rally killers. Drew might be able to get on base at least and keep a rally going.
  24. Willihammer
    Interesting read. I think the low pitch counts result from PTC as much as any health preservation measure. If you PTC, you get through PAs quicker. In games where that goes poorly, you're pulled early (probably with a low pitch count). In games where that goes well, you've mowed down the lineup three times using 75 pitches. Its in that fourth trip through the order when batters will start to figure out pitchers though, especially contact pitchers, and it becomes worthwhile for the manager to put in a reliever.
  25. Willihammer
    That appears to be the case. In other words if you bid 18m and someone else bids 20m you are SOL.
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