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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    What was Valencia's BABIP against RHP's?
  2. Willihammer
    I don't think Valencia has so far to regress. Mean BABIP is higher if you have the platoon advantage all the time, which is how Showalter used him last year. Actually, Lough was platooned too, he had a .326 BABIP.
  3. Willihammer
    OK then, in isolation, Lough is the better lousy player. In context, Lough would be backing up Gordon, Cain, Aoki, Dyson, and Maxwell for 3 spots. He was also out of options. Instead of getting nothing for him they got a little depth at 3B. Its the sort of move Twins fans would applaud if TR did it.
  4. Willihammer
    I'm not convinced one player is better than the other. I am convinced the move makes sense for both teams in the context of their respective roster situations.
  5. Willihammer
    In my view an apples to apples situation is where free agency means free agency and there is no such thing as a posting system. However you're right that Tanaka was drafted in 2006, not 2007 as I thought. Teams have 8 years control on those players and so nobody from that class would be even a domestic FA till next offseason.
  6. Willihammer
    Clete had a decent glove too, but I don't want either of their bats in the lineup again.
  7. Willihammer
    An American player can retire at any time and go play in Japanand there wouldn't be any PR or goodwill backlash. The clauses in the MLB-NPB posting agreement are all about hindering labor movement is in the direction Japan>US, there are no restrictions prohibiting labor movement from US > Japan. Secondly, Japanese players drafted 2007 or after become "free agents" after 7 years of service, but can't sign internationally till after 9 years. As we all know, those two years are often a player's prime and represent millions of dollars of potential earnings. Unless a player wants to wait till year 10, when he is truly a free agent, he will be under NPB control in some form or another - either through the NPB FA rules or under team contract. In other words, nobody can post in years 8-9 unless their team posts them, meaning, 100% of Japanese players who post will be under contract.
  8. Willihammer
    Answer: Tomo Ohka.
  9. Willihammer
    It could get interesting. If Tanaka wants to post, and the Golden Eagles won't post him, will he demand a trade? And if they won't trade him, what if he tears his rotator cuff next year, and then nobody wants him? That sounds like a lawsuit waiting to happen but maybe that's just the American in me talking.
  10. Willihammer
    Large markets might still get the best players but a greater portion of the overall payment will be taxed. No more 50m blowout posting bids and then 10m AAV contracts like Darvish. I think the new deal is an improvement. Japanese players will certainly benefit. One question though. What are the rules governing players who opt to retire from NPB and sign as an international FA? As in, when they want to post but their team won't post them?
  11. Willihammer
    To me Deduno is exactly the sort of player spring training is for. I would have no problem penciling him into the 5th spot if he pitches that way again. But I think it would be unwise to count on it.
  12. Willihammer
    They'll post him. Rakuten is is only worth 1.9trillion yen (18.4m USD). Or they could hold him another year, and Tanaka could tear his UCL. edit: Err... make that 19B USD. forgot a few zeroes.
  13. Willihammer
    OK fine, the signings wouldn't boost attendance. For sake of argument, let's assume the Twins never make the playoffs and attendance holds at 2013 levels. Jim Pohlad said "we're happy where we're at" when the payroll was 100m in 2012. Attendance was 2.744m in 2012 and went down by 300,000 in 2013. So, using the same assumptions and calculations above we can show there was 15m in gained income from ticket sales: The average ticket price in 2013 was $30.68. We would have had to pay substantially more than LAD/DET to sign them. $2M/each overpay seems reasonable so total cost of $39M. 43,000 seats total 2012 attendance = 2,774,000 2013 attendance = 2,477,644 34,250 in attendance for every home game = 2,774,000 Delta 2013 vs 2012 = 300,000 $9.2m in reduced ticket sales 25m in reduced payroll 15.8m in gained income Add in the 175m t.v. money and there's your 40m/yr
  14. Willihammer
    The $175m in national t.v. money for one. Concession sales, merchandise, additional ad revenue from higher viewership/attendance. Bonuses from going to the playoffs. Winning the WS is a 15-20m payday alone but the losers get paid too. Also, a 10 game improvement could be on the low side. The 1998 Diamondbacks won 65 games. That offseason they signed Randy Johnson to a 4 year+team option for 65m, and traded for Luis Gonzalez and his 6 year contract. They won 100 games in 1999 and made the playoffs 3/5 years incl. 1 world series.
  15. Willihammer
    I agree. The strikeouts really started piling up and the offensive nosedive kicked into full force after Mauer went down. Its almost like this team missed his leadership or something. [TABLE=class: small_text] [TD=colspan: 6, align: center]By Season Half[/TD] [TH=align: left]Split[/TH] W L RS RA WP First Half[TD=align: right] 39[/TD] [TD=align: right] 53[/TD] [TD=align: right] 379[/TD] [TD=align: right] 427[/TD] [TD=align: right] .424[/TD] Second Half[TD=align: right] 27[/TD] [TD=align: right] 43[/TD] [TD=align: right] 235[/TD] [TD=align: right] 361[/TD] [TD=align: right] .386[/TD] [/TABLE]
  16. Willihammer
    I'd have held out for 2/22 if I were him.
  17. Willihammer
    We were. We were right [TABLE=width: 500] [TABLE=width: 594] Row Labels Sum of IP Average of ERA Average of FIP Average of xFIP Average of WAR Marcum,Dempster,Saunders,Jackson[TD=align: right]607.30 [TD=align: right]5.03[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.21[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.13[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.28[/TD] Albers,Walters,Gibson,Hendriks,Hernandez,Worley,DeVries[TD=align: right]316.60[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.89[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.59[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.05[/TD] [TD=align: right]-0.01[/TD] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TABLE]
  18. Willihammer
    Mauer does kind of break assumptions about BABIP. He sprays the ball all over. He doesn't hit a lot of fly balls (which have the lowest babip's), and those he does hit, almost none are IFFB's, he hits a ton of liners, has no clear holes in his swing, runs decently well, etc etc. All of which makes him one of the best pure hitters in history, IMO.
  19. Willihammer
    Remember that HRs aren't included in BABIP And since roughly 1/4 of Sano's hits have left the park, his BABIP takes a hit (this is partially offset by striking out more though - 31% to 22%). If you include HR's as "in play," the BABIP's are: Buxton: .421 Sano: .407 IMO the whole Cedar Rapids-Mike Trout comps have unfailrly raised expectations for Buxton. Trout has exceeded the highest possible expectations. You could take all the speed out of Trout's game at this point and he'd still be a top 10 hitter. IMO its probably unlikely that Buxton ever becomes that good of a hitter (especially on Trout's timetable). On the other hand, Sano's going to pound MLB pitching, its only a question of at what rate. Will he be a Chris Carter or mature into a selective, high OBP guy like Cabrera to go with the power, or something in between.
  20. Willihammer
    I'm having a hard time imagining why either of those groups would be in favor. Esp. umpires.
  21. Willihammer
    No reason for Garza to sign before Tanaka posts / doesn't post.
  22. Willihammer
    Is Zimmer MLB ready? Is that even what the Rays want? I don't know, it was just one possibility. I think there are more barriers to the trade market than you're aknowledging. Its tricky, especially when the team in question is a playoff challenger and many of the available arms are in the same league. Bailey would be a reasonable possibility. Or would he? He hasn't been traded yet. And even still, I don't see why 1 year of Bailey is necessarily better than two years of Shields. Phils are a different problem. Money. Moore is on a tighter budget, and Shields, coming from the Ray, was carrying one of their patented team friendly contracts, not the $20m tag Lee and Hamels have. So I don't necessarily think that's realistic either.
  23. Willihammer
    That's a heck of an assumption. What if the Rays traded Shields for someone else's outfielder? Say, Avisail Garcia? You can't assume they're still jonesing for Myers a year after trading Shields. Maybe they want an MLB ready pitcher to take Price's spot instead? That certainly seems to be what the A's wanted for Anderson. Who could the Royals have given up for him? And the Tigers trading Fister within the division? Pipe dream. Moore seized an opportunity in the trade market, he didn't wait for one to fall into his lap after they were "ready" to compete. That would have been a huge mistake IMO.
  24. Willihammer
    See 2013 NLC. Being the 3rd best team doesn't necessarily keep you out of the playoffs anymore.
  25. Willihammer
    Also I'm curious. To everyone that thinks Moore was such an impatient nincompoop and should have waited till this offseason to trade for pitching, who should he have gotten? You can throw out Fister becuase the Tigers aren't dumb enough to give him to a divisional rival. Brett Anderson? I like Anderson but he is no James Shields. Who else is on the trade block that they should have waited to get?
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