Willihammer

Amen to this. Don't want to ink huge contracts? You're going to have to take bigger risks. 6/86 for the best hitter in Cuba ATM seems like a good compromise and one every "mid-market" team should be all over.

Other posters have said this before but I'll repeat it: the Twins need to soak up good players when they have the chance and worry about where to play them later. If this guy hits like Ryan Howard then they could have squeezed him in somewhere.

MLB's postseason coverage is a pet peave of mine. It drives me nuts. I'll run through my complaints in order: Dick Stockton didn't watch a ballgame all year, that was obvious during the Pirates-Cards series. You could cook a pizza in the time it took him to look at his scorecard to find guys' names. http://i.tbs.com/v5cache/TBS/Images/Dynamic/i38/sports_erniejohnson_240x260_082920070248.jpg This guy, Ernie Johnson, is just unpleasant to listen to. Is his diaphram broken? He is all throat. His voice could give out at any second. I find it distracting. The best of the 4 LCS crews was easily Buck Martinez, Don Orsillo and Dennis Eckersly. Orsillo and Martinez are regulars season announcers for the Red Sox and Blue Jays anyway, so they know players' names at least, and I personally like Orsillo's low key style. Strangely though, TBS saw it fit to have them call the As-Tigers series instead of the Red Sox - Rays series. Bob Brenly was at WGN for a number of years and also managed the D-backs to one or more World Series wins. He knows the players and has good insights and I enjoy his analysis but again, he was cut along with Orsillo and Martinez after the LCS series. SMDH. Joe Buck is like the anti-Bremer. Completely uninvested, to the point that he seems like he can hardly be bothered to call these games sometimes. In almost every case, I would rather listen to the local guys call these games. I have an MLB.TV subscription and really there are only a handful that are worse than the national guys IMO.

Sometimes you can't give your money away.

Question: What if Illitch doesn't die?

Its only a mistake if you think Cano is a poor player. Obviously he's not, he's a terrific player. If Cano is only worth 18 WARs over the next 6 years (he could easily be worth that many in the next 3), that is a +6 WAR swing in favor of the team that gets him, if the two suitors share a division. That's huge. The Twins should absolutely factor the other FA suitors into their decisionmaking.

The Cardinals and Red Sox might disagree. Look at what the Tigers have done in FA since 2010. 2010 offseason: VMart 2011: Prince 2012: Anibal 2013: Cano? I don't think any rebuild can keep pace with a rival who signs a top FA per offseason. If the Tigers become suitors for Cano, and get him, that could easily push back the Twins window to 2020 or later.

If the Yankees want him more than they're letting on, I don't think any team can stop them. If they are serious about getting under the cap and staying there though, then the Twins have to stop Detroit signing him or this whole rebuild is for naught.

I know Jim Pohlad has publicly ruled out contracts over 4 years, and I realize the prospect of the Twins signing Cano has been pre-emptively mocked by a certain TD blogger (cough Swanson cough), but there are compelling reasons the Twins should pursue him. * Twins have the need * Cano's really really good * Cano's healthy * Denial value * Top 10 pick going into 2014 (protected) * weak market Cashman has waffled publicly. Magic Johnson has excluded the Dodgers publicly. Rangers are "interested" but have middle infielders coming out their ears. Phillies are set. Boston is mostly set. LA is expected to prioritize pitching. Forget 10/300. I think there could be a real opening for a middle-tier club like the Twins to steal the premier FA for a 6 year commitment, a la 2011 Adrian Beltre.

If the Reds are going to shift Chapman into his spot then maybe Perkins or Thielbar would be a starting point.

I didn't mean to devalue the Twins accomplishments in the 2000s, just put them in context. As others have said, they were good, but not as good as their win totals indicated. By the same token, their ALDS opponents were actually better than their regular season win totals, after weighting for divisional strength and the unbalanced schedules. So I agree, they were overmatched most of the time.

Between 2002 and 2010 the Twins scored 2830 runs against ALE and ALW opponents, while allowing 2842 runs. They were a .500 ballclub essentially, against those opponents. During this time the Twins scored 162 regular season runs against their eventual LDS opponents, and allowed 216 (a .373 Pythagorean WP%). In the LDS games, they scored 70 runs while allowing 111 - a .303 Pythagorean WP%. So they did in fact play more poorly in the playoffs than they did against those same opponents in the regular season, according to raw runs scored/allowed. In reality, the Twins won 5 of 22 ALDS games during this time, for an even worse .227 WP%. I don't know how else you can slice it, the Twins were out of their league pretty much every time they went to the postseason and then played even worse once they got there, for whatever reason.

I think you are splitting hairs a little to say Tanaka's k-rate has declined. [TABLE=width: 256] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64]Year[/TD] [TD=width: 64]K%[/TD] [TD=width: 64]BB%[/TD] [TD=width: 64]HR/BIP[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]2007[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]24.5%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]8.5%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]3.2%[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]2008[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]21.9%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]7.4%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]1.8%[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]2009[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]22.2%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]5.6%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]2.4%[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]2010[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]18.5%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]5.0%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]1.9%[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]2011[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]27.8%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]3.1%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]1.3%[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]2012[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]24.3%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]2.7%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]0.8%[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]22.1%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]3.9%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]1.2%[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]7 Seasons[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]23.3%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]5.2%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]1.8%[/TD] [/TABLE] By comparison, Darvish: [TABLE=width: 256] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64]Year[/TD] [TD=width: 64]K%[/TD] [TD=width: 64]BB%[/TD] [TD=width: 64]HR/BIP[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]2005[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]12.7%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]11.7%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]2.3%[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]2006[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]18.3%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]10.2%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]2.7%[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]2007[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]26.6%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]6.2%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]1.7%[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]2008[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]27.2%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]5.8%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]2.2%[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]2009[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]23.8%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]6.4%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]1.9%[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]2010[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]27.6%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]5.8%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]0.9%[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]2011[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]31.2%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]4.1%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]0.9%[/TD] 7 sesaons [TD=class: xl66, align: right]25.1%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]6.7%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]1.7%[/TD] [/TABLE] Then again, here are Colby Lewis's 2 seasons in Japan [TABLE=width: 256] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64]Year[/TD] [TD=width: 64]K%[/TD] [TD=width: 64]BB%[/TD] [TD=width: 64]HR/BIP[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]2008[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]26.1%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]3.8%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]2.5%[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]2009[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]26.0%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]2.7%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]2.6%[/TD] 2 seasons [TD=class: xl66, align: right]26.0%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]3.2%[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]2.6%[/TD] [/TABLE]

What's maybe most impressive is that Tanaka maintained a miniscule HR rate this season in spite of the livelier balls.

Step 1. Lose a bunch of games Step 2. hibernate through the winter Step 3. Wake up, sign one of the stragglers before ST Step 4. Draft High Rinse and repeat

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2372-Acquiring-Talent-the-Twins-Way-Terry-Ryan-vs-the-AL-(part-3-of-3)

Even if their stadium debt is outrageous, the contract the Twins made with Minnesota was "help us finance a new park and we'll put a better product on the field," not "help us finance a new park and we'll put a better product on the field after we've paid off our portion of the debt needed in order to build said park."

To throw a good split you have to pronate, its an exaggerated two seemer. My understanding was there was more evidence pointing to breaking balls as the cause of UCL injuries, due to the opposite (supinating) action. In any case, I wonder if that is still the policy. If it is, it didn't stop them signing Pelfrey.

Actually I did make a mistake with the Cardinals, their operating costs are about 100m even. Still, the Twins had the 5th highest operating costs this year. If they are going to make cuts, why not cut from operations instead of payroll? I am taking Revenue - Payroll - NOI to arrive at operating costs. Here is a representation of leaguewise operating costs as a function of revenue http://i.imgur.com/SVeRPS8.png Now, here is a graph of Wins as a function of the difference between actual operating costs and expected operating costs (as expressed by the equation y=1.3238x + 90.175). http://i.imgur.com/RoomSWV.png The Teams on the negative (righthand) side ran efficient operations, and quite a few of them wound up in the playoffs this year. Seems to me one could make an argument that the Twins ought to cut money from operations, instead of payroll. Compared to the average 214m revenue-team, they are wasting over 20m on inefficient operations.

That is true. Also, something to remember about Japanese baseball: starting pitchers get an extra day of rest (5) compared to our style. So while Tanaka has thrown a lot of innings (although not much more than a good minor league prospect, I reckon) he had good rest between starts. I'm not sure what the usual routine is with bullpen sessions between starts is though. Anyone know?

The Cardinals operate on a 79m budget. The Pirates on a 72m budget. The Twins? 131m budget. You think they're just a more expensive team to run than these other clubs? I don't know why you would assume that.

"The game has changed since I've entered," Ryan said. "It's for bright, energetic negotiators, moreso than anything I possess." -Terry Ryan, Sept 2007

I think we can take the highest bids to this point (~50m), add on the 25m of free t.v. money, sprinkle in a little inflation for the string of successful Japanese pitchers we've seen since the Dice-K bust (Uehara, Tazawa, Darvish, Iwakuma) and that puts the winning posting fee in the 80-90m range.

After what we just saw this last season I think it would be foolish to hand Gibson a starting job no matter what he does in spring training. There's ~250 relief innings we'll need to make up if Duensing, Swarzak, and Roenicke aren't back. I think Gibson is a natural fit to soak up some of them. Meyer and May too, maybe. If Gibson thrives then he could be first in line to sub when one or more of the starters inevitably gets hurt. JMO

I don't think ST is going to tell us anything we don't already know for most of these guys. I'm hoping Gibson, Meyer and/or May, do well enough to displace some bullpen arms, while the rotation is supplanted by free agency.