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Willihammer

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  1. Last Friday Terry Ryan spoke to Paul Allen about Free Agency: Free Agency is only one of the 6 most common methods of acquiring talent. The others are the Amateur Draft, Amateur Free Agency, Rule 5 Draft, Trades, and Waivers. Using Baseball-references Player registry data, I will examine the Twins' successes at acquiring positional talent via these 6 methods during the period 1996-2013 - the Terry Ryan era. (data here) POSITION PLAYERS The Amateur Draft Since 1996, the Twins have 194 player-seasons from players acquired via the Draft, most of any AL team. They have paid these players a combined $389,248,998, 2nd only to the Yankees. These players have put up an average of 1.26 WAR, good for 6th in the AL. http://i.imgur.com/gKvQamF.png 2. Amateur Free Agency This includes signing international prospects. Sixteen player-seasons have been worth an average of just .26 WAR. Bobby Kielty, Luis Rodriguez, and Luis Rivas own most of those seasons. Josmil Pinto and Oswaldo Arcia own one apiece. http://i.imgur.com/BPAcyJd.png 3. Rule 5 Draft Brian Buscher and Jason Pridie are the two Rule 5 position players to stick on the 40 man roster during Ryan's and Smith's tenures. Combined, they provided 0.3 WAR over 5 player-seasons at a cost of just under 2 million. The most active Rule 5 team during this time was the Baltimore Orioles, who kept Jay Gibbons on as DH/outfielder for the 2001-2007 seasons. http://i.imgur.com/pUgIpiT.png 4. Trades The Twins have given 70 player-seasons to players acquired by trade since 1996. Jason Bartlett, Lew Ford, and Christian Guzman accumulated 9.1, 8.4, and 7.4 WARs over 15 player seasons. On the other end, Ron Coomer, David Ortiz, and Alexi Casilla accumulated between 2 and 4 WARs over 6+ seasons each. Overall, the average player-season was worth .54 WAR, last among AL teams (excluding Houston and Milwaukee.) http://i.imgur.com/0M6YzGI.png 5. Waivers The Twins have played 7 Waiver claims in positions 2-9 since 1996. They are (WAR in Parenthesis): Augie Ojeda (1.2), Casey Blake (-0.2), Clete Thomas (0.2), Corky Miller (-0.2), Darin Mastroianni (0.3), Erik Komatsu (-0.2), and Pedro Florimon (3.8). The average waiver claim-season has been worth 0.42 WAR, boosted largely by Florimon's 2013 season which has so far been worth 2.2 WAR. http://i.imgur.com/YQ4cjv5.png 6. Free Agency Since 1996, the Twins have 84 Free Agent position player-seasons. WAR likes Paul Molitor (5.2), Josh Willingham (3.9) and Jamey Carroll the most (3.5). On the other end are Rondell White (-1.5), Butch Huskey (-1.0), and Kevin Maas (-0.8). Overall, the Twins average a 0.38 WAR season from Free Agent position players. This is the worst average in the AL (excluding Houston and Milwaukee). Interestingly, they also pay their Free Agents the least of any AL team. http://i.imgur.com/MxJJnAt.png So, in order of average WAR, the Twins' most successful means of positional talent acquisition under Terry Ryan (and 4 seasons of Bill Smith): 1. Amateur Draft (1.26 WAR) 2. Trades (0.54) 3. Waivers (0.42) 4. Free Agency (0.37) 5. Amateur Free Agency (0.26) 6. Rule 5 Draft (0.06) *Note about the Salary figures - rather than look up days spent on the active roster for all the minimum wagers, I assumed they were paid a full season's worth. Therefore salary figures are a little inflated, specially for waivers, rule 5, and amateur draft guys.
  2. Last Friday Terry Ryan spoke to Paul Allen about Free Agency: Free Agency is only one of the 6 most common methods of acquiring talent. The others are the Amateur Draft, Amateur Free Agency, Rule 5 Draft, Trades, and Waivers. Using Baseball-references Player registry data, I will examine the Twins' successes at acquiring positional talent via these 6 methods during the period 1995-2013 - the Terry Ryan era. (data here) POSITION PLAYERS The Amateur Draft Since 1995, the Twins have 194 player-seasons from players acquired via the Draft, most of any AL team. They have paid these players a combined $389,248,998, 2nd only to the Yankees. These players have put up an average of 1.26 WAR, good for 6th in the AL. http://i.imgur.com/gKvQamF.png 2. Amateur Free Agency 16 player-seasons have been worth an average of just .26 WAR. Bobby Kielty, Luis Rodriguez, and Luis Rivas own most of those seasons. Josmil Pinto and Oswaldo Arcia own 1 a piece. http://i.imgur.com/BPAcyJd.png 3. Rule 5 Draft Brian Buscher and Jason Pridie are the two Rule 5 position players to stick on the 40 man roster during Ryan's and Smith's tenures. Combined, they provided 0.3 WAR over 5 player-seasons at a cost of just under 2 million. The most active Rule 5 team during this time was the Baltimore Orioles, who kept Jay Gibbons on as DH/outfielder for the 2001-2007 seasons. http://i.imgur.com/pUgIpiT.png 4. Trades The Twins have given 70 player-seasons to players acquired by trade since 1995. Jason Bartlett, Lew Ford, and Christian Guzman accumulated 9.1, 8.4, and 7.4 WARs over 15 player seasons. On the other end, Ron Coomer, David Ortiz, and Alexi Casilla accumulated between 2 and 4 WARs over 6+ seasons each. Overall, the average player-season was worth .54 WAR, last among AL teams (excluding Houston and Milwaukee.) http://i.imgur.com/0M6YzGI.png 5. Waivers The Twins have played 7 Waiver claims in positions 2-9 since 1995. They are (WAR in Parenthesis): Augie Ojeda (1.2), Casey Blake (-0.2), Clete Thomas (0.2), Corky Miller (-0.2), Darin Mastroianni (0.3), Erik Komatsu (-0.2), and Pedro Florimon (3.8). The average waiver claim-season has been worth 0.42 WAR, boosted largely by Florimon's 2013 season which has so far been worth 2.2 WAR. http://i.imgur.com/YQ4cjv5.png 6. Free Agency Since 1995, the Twins have 84 Free Agent position player-seasons. WAR likes Paul Molitor (5.2), Josh Willingham (3.9) and Jamey Carroll the most (3.5). On the other end are Rondell White (-1.5), Butch Huskey (-1.0), and Kevin Maas (-0.8). Overall, the Twins average a 0.38 WAR season from Free Agent position players. This is the worst average in the AL (excluding Houston and Milwaukee). Interestingly, they also pay their Free Agents the least of any AL team. http://i.imgur.com/MxJJnAt.png So, in order of average WAR, the Twins' most successful means of positional talent acquisition under Terry Ryan (and 4 seasons of Bill Smith): 1. Amateur Draft (1.26 WAR) 2. Trades (0.54) 3. Waivers (0.42) 4. Free Agency (0.37) 5. Amateur Free Agency (0.26) 6. Rule 5 Draft (0.06) *Note about the Salary figures - rather than look up days spent on the active roster for all the minimum wagers, I assumed they were paid a full season's worth. Therefore salary figures are a little inflated, specially for waivers, rule 5, and amateur draft guys.
  3. Nice writeup. I think this is a very realistic list. Many of us would like outside blood but those guys, esp. if they aren't currently managing, might end up with Twins staff coaching around them anyway so pitching and hitting probably wouldn't be affected much. That said, there is plenty I believe a manager can control in-game. The drum that I have banged for a while is defensive shifting, and one of the more innovative guys I've seen this year is the Pirates' Jeff banister (who is actually the Bench coach). Manager and Coaches | pirates.com: Team edit: COnflicting reports who is in charge of the shifting on the Pirates. According to this article, 3rd Base coach Nick Leyva is the man arranging infield shifts. http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/4689239-74/pirates-defensive-season#axzz2fpJAslD9
  4. Hey Chitown thanks for answering my text. I didn't expect to get a reply tbh but guess we're back on now huh?
  5. Pretty much all those guys had better years than Worley / Diamond / Hernandez / Walters / DeVries, et al
  6. Was anyone paying attention to what happened around the league this summer? What's stopping Ryan from blowing away 3-4 guys with 1 year offers on the promise that, if they perform, they will be playing for a contender after the trade deadline?
  7. Rhett Bollinger did have this to say on 9/16 (4 days before this BP article was published) Pinto having success while learning on the job | twinsbaseball.com: News
  8. Psh, didn't need him
  9. Speaking of Liam, Dick says he's the long man today. Well, "long" meaning "first." Could be a record breaker today
  10. Nevada? Oh I see. "Shopping," sure.
  11. He mentioned Hochevar, reasoning that he's a former starter who's been pushed into the bullpen by the improved rotation the Royals have made for themselves. Sounds like a surefire recipe for success to me.
  12. Carnac: Yoenis Ed: Yo... Yoenis Carnac: Where did the As stick it to the Twins tonight? Carnac: Colon Ed: Colon Carna: Where did the As stick it to the Twins tonight?
  13. The Twins are playing that pitchers park all wrong. O.Co's foul territory is supposed to prevent runs, not bring em in!
  14. Plouffe would have made that play
  15. 5 looking strikeouts by my count
  16. Her smile is really disarming
  17. Closed circuit to Twins hitters... Bartolo Colon is a strike thrower. He threw 38 in a row once. He has 16 wins and 27 walks this year. He has more starts than walks. Swing the bat!
  18. OK get a pair of sunglasses on Arcia already I don't care if its nighttime
  19. "Parmelee was 3-4 with a walk yesterday"
  20. It never ceases to amaze me. Bert Blyleven, who owes his HoF induction to sabermetrics, doesn't know the difference between a PA and an AB
  21. Does Albers balk all the time? edit: interesting. He doesn't need to come to a complete stop if the bases are empty.
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