Nick Nelson

Over the past four years, Dozier leads all middle infielders in home runs by double digits. What's wrong with that description?

Well said. I think this is a really important dynamic. For better or worse, this could easily be the defining trade for this regime, with long-lasting implications.

Right. This was more or less addressed two paragraphs later. I meant it in more of a general sense. Days left until this self-imposed deadline, a few weeks until TwinsFest and Diamond Awards, spring training kicking off shortly thereafter. The clock is ticking.

I think we can say with a high degree of confidence that this is not the case.

For weeks, the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Dodgers have been in an apparent stalemate regarding a Brian Dozier trade. What's keeping these talks from reaching fruition?Over the past month or so, we've seen reports from numerous outlets suggesting that the Dodgers are making prospect Jose De Leon available as the main piece in a potential deal, and that the two sides are in disagreement over what would come packaged alongside the right-hander. The latest tidbit, a Thursday tweet from USA TODAY baseball scribe Bob Nightingale, affirms (unsurprisingly) that Los Angeles remains "heavy favorites" for Dozier but adds that the "Twins continue to insist they need more than Jose De Leon to move him." Now, what Nightingale is probably saying is that the Twins are demanding at least one more top-tier prospect in addition to De Leon. But if we take the words at face value, there is an implication that the Dodgers are offering nothing beyond the 24-year-old. Nothing of note, anyway. And that... well, that'd be a bit ridiculous. Let's turn the clock back to the 2016 trade deadline. Seeking to bulk up for the stretch run, the Dodgers swung a deal with the Oakland Athletics to acquire starter Rich Hill along with outfielder Josh Reddick. In exchange, LA gave up three of its top pitching prospects: Grant Holmes, Frankie Montas and Jharel Cotton. Both Hill and Reddick became free agents at year's end, so in that instance, the Dodgers were willing to give up three coveted young arms for a pair of short-term rentals. Granted, no one among the aforementioned trio can quite measure up to De Leon, but they were pretty damn good prospects. And here we're talking about Dozier, an elite power hitting middle infielder in his prime with two full years of control remaining. With that context in mind, plus the return that the White Sox recently received when trading Adam Eaton to the Nationals a month ago, the Twins would be crazy to give up Dozier for one unproven player. Being that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are both essentially newbies on the job, the last thing they want to do is get swindled when dealing away the team's best player. So, the reluctance to pull the trigger makes sense, in light of these facts. But time is running out. For Dozier, this has undoubtedly been an agonizing couple of months. He's not ignorant to the business of baseball, but hanging in a state of complete limbo as he is can't be fun. An article from Mike Berardino in the Pioneer Press earlier this week quoted a source as saying that a final decision would be coming soon "out of respect" for the veteran infielder. But what does that really mean? If another week passes and the Dodgers still haven't budged, Falvey and Levine say "OK, no deal" and that's that? Even if LA comes back at the end of the month – after futilely scouring for another decent option at second – and offers to meet the previous demands, the Twins are going to say no? It's a murky situation, to be sure. Signs still point to a trade being announced quite soon but with each passing day, the chances of Dozier remaining in Minnesota get a little bit better. I'm not sure how I would feel about that. I've been a vocal proponent of trading Dozier for De Leon since before the season ended. But if the Dodgers are truly set on low-balling the Twins for a premier player – and that would be inexplicable because LA truly needs Dozier – then I could hardly fault the new regime for standing pat. One way or another, it sounds like we'll have an answer within a few days. As we continue to play the waiting game, here are some diversions to keep you busy (and educated): Whenever any significant news relating to this situation emerges, you can bet it will posted to the Dozier Trade Discussion thread in our forum. There are currently 73 pages of conversation, but skip to the end for the newest submissions.Last month I wrote an in-depth profile on De Leon, who is all but certain to headline any eventual package. As you will see, there is much to like about the Puerto Rican strikeout machine.Jeremy Nygaard wrote over the weekend about creative ways that the Twins and Dodgers could complete a deal without adding any big names behind De Leon. Click here to view the article

It's a new year! We're heading into 2017, and in a couple of months Twins Daily will celebrate its five-year anniversary. Whether you're a longtime community member or relatively new, we felt this might be a good time to brush up on some of the site's features and functionalities you may not be aware of, or taking full advantage of.When John, Parker, Seth and myself first came together to launch Twins Daily back in March of 2012, we had a number of goals in mind. Sure, we wanted a central place to feature our writing. But more than that, we wanted to build a cohesive community, and an indispensable resource for fans throughout the year. To that end, we implemented a number of features at launch and we've added new ones over time. Today, we'll discuss some of the site's key functionalities that you may or may not be utilizing. We'll start with the newer additions: MINNESOTA TWINS ORGANIZATION CHART Where can you find a full listing of every player in the Twins system, along with prospect profile capsules, details on their method of acquisition and contract, and a whole lot more? Only in our Twins Organization Charts, which enable you to drill down and create custom lists based on a variety of different criteria. Download attachment: orgchart1.png View personnel by affiliate, or by position. For most minor-leaguers, you can find the most recent write-up from Seth's Prospect Handbook. For big-leaguers, you can on service time, salary details and more. Download attachment: orgchart2.png This is one of the most in-depth resources available on the Web for roster geeks so if that's you, make sure to keep it bookmarked. You will always find the Organization Chart on the right section of the top nav bar when you visit Twins Daily. We are taking measures to ensure that this living database remains steadfastly updated all year. FREE AGENT TRACKER Nearby the Organization Chart on the top menu, you will also find the Free Agent Tracker. This is a new feature we just added this offseason, as a component of our ongoing coverage for the Offseason Handbook. Here, you will find a complete list of available big-league free agents. Like with the Org Charts, you can filter by different parameters. When you first enter the tracker, the most recent signings will appear at the top the list, providing an easy way to get caught up on the latest Hot Stove action if you haven't been plugged in. Download attachment: fatracker.png Comparing the actual contracts to the estimations from the Handbook gives you a good idea of how the market is shaping up relative to expectations. From the screenshot above we can pinpoint a couple of very prominent storylines: the relief pitching market is going crazy, and Edwin Encarnacion really had to settle. WRITING YOUR OWN BLOG This is a functionality that has existed at Twins Daily from the outset, but it's certainly one we would like to see more people use. As soon as you create an account here on the site, you automatically get your own blog. All you need to do is click the "Blogs" tab on the top of the site and then the "Create a Blog" button. Download attachment: blogs.png To some, this may feel intimidating. But it really is quite easy to do, and you will get some additional exposure (as well as formatting freedom) for your takes in comparison to writing comments in the forum. If you ever have a lengthy response in mind to an article on the site, or a topic in the news, then consider putting your thoughts into blog form. You might just like it. Your pieces might also find their way onto the front page, alongside the site's top content. This can get your work in front of thousands of eyeballs. Those who become regular contributors and meet a certain traffic threshold will also enter our compensation program, which we hope to bolster in 2017. OTHER FORUM SECTIONS Unsurprisingly, the most popular and active sections of the message board are Minnesota Twins Talk and Twins Minor League Talk. But one thing you'll find when interacting with folks here on Twins Daily is that common interests, and thoughtful conversations, tend to expand beyond the scope of the local nine. Check out Other Baseball for discussion of general MLB topics. Or click into The Sports Bar for casual chatter about sports and entertainment. Also, if you ever experience technical issues with the site, or feel some aspect could be improved, your best bet is to start a thread in the Questions About Minncentric subforum. JOIN THE TWINS DAILY MAILING LIST Did you know that could be receiving an email in your inbox with the latest Twins headlines? Our newsletter (delivered 3x per week in-season, 2x per week over the winter) offers a convenient way to stay on top of the big new stories and breaking news. In order to subscribe, just scroll down on the front page until you find the email capture on the right sidebar: Download attachment: mailinglist.png As always, we appreciate your patronage and hope you'll take advantage of Twins Daily and everything it offers. We look forward to a big year in 2017, both for the team and site, and we're excited to have you all along for the ride. Click here to view the article

I wrote about this in late August, so you might be thinking of #3 here? Pointed out that the number of outings in which he threw 30+ pitches increased from 10% in AAA to 20% in MLB, where he was also asked to throw 40-50 on occasion.

Boshers did everything you want from a left-handed reliever, so yes. Kintzler was miscast as a closer out of necessity but yeah, I think a contender would like to have those numbers in their bullpen. Several playoff teams had Pressly-caliber guys as their third or fourth options.

Expectations, experience, role... it all comes into account. Rogers got a good grade because he was excellent against LHB and that's his main job. Ditto Boshers, who got a nudge because he was also solid against righties. And yeah, I gave a bit of extra cred since both were rookies. To say you would give Kintzler a C seems... harsh. He pitched basically to the very utmost of his abilities, coming off a lost season. Adapted well to the closer role. What more could you really ask of the guy? He isn't a strikeout pitcher.

Having charged through the infield, outfield and rotation in our player-by-player review of the 2016 Minnesota Twins, let's round out this series with a look at the bullpen. This one won't be nearly as rough as the starters.You can find the previous breakdowns by unit through the links below: InfieldersOutfieldersStarting PitchersFor this edition, our criteria for inclusion will be that the reliever pitched in at least 20 games with the Twins and remains in the organization presently. Each player on the list will at least be a candidate to make the bullpen out of spring training, if not a lock. Of course, not listed is longtime mainstay Glen Perkins, whose season ended after two appearances. His uncertain future is reflective of a relief corps that carries many question marks as a whole. Let's wrap this up: Buddy Boshers, LHP 2016 Stats: 36 IP, 4.25 ERA, 37 K, 7 BB, 1.16 WHIP, 2.84 FIP Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 I was particularly intrigued by Boshers when the Twins signed him: a former fourth-round pick with big strikeout rates in the minors who had latched on with an independent team and dominated before resurfacing. It had the makings of a pretty good story. And that it was. Ignoring the inflated ERA – entirely the result of one August outing where he allowed six earned runs (and went on the disabled list immediately after) – Boshers pitched brilliantly. His K/BB ratio was sterling and he allowed only three homers in 37 appearances. He went from facing washed out pros in the Atlantic League the previous summer to taking on big-league hitters, and barely missed a beat. Unleashing a filthy curveball and routinely hitting his spots, Boshers put up the highest swinging strike rate on the team outside of Trevor May. In 60 match-ups against lefties, he allowed only three extra-base hits (all doubles) and two walks. 2016 Grade: A- 2017 Outlook: His lack of a track record may work against him, but Boshers showed plenty in 2016 to punch his ticket for next year's bullpen. Given the relatively small sample, will he have to back it up in spring training? J.T. Chargois, RHP 2016 Stats: 23 IP, 4.70 ERA, 17 K, 12 BB, 1.61 WHIP, 3.36 FIP Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 Four years after being drafted in the second round out of Rice University, Chargois arrived in the majors with special heat that has rarely been seen from a Minnesota Twin. In fact, the rookie had one of the 15 hardest fastballs in the majors . He coupled it with a zippy slider in the mid-80s for a repertoire that exuded dominant potential. He was far from dominant in his MLB debut, on June 11th. The 25-year-old had been eviscerating hitters in Double-A and Triple-A, but on that date, he received a very rude welcome to the majors from the Red Sox. Chargois came on to pitch the ninth inning of a blowout loss, and his sequence looked like this: lineout, single, single, groundout, HBP, single, walk, run-scoring wild pitch, walk, removal. Five runs charged in total. Ouch. Chargois was demoted right after the game, but would return two months later with renewed confidence and determination. He made 24 appearances in August and September, and posted a 2.82 ERA. His control gradually improved to the point where he issued only one walk in his final 10 outings. The overall numbers weren't great, and it would have been nice to see his high-powered arsenal produce more strikeouts (he whiffed only 17 percent of MLB hitters after fanning nearly 30 percent in AA/AAA), but all in all Chargois had the kind of year you're looking for from a highly regarded first-year player getting through his initial big-league speed bumps. 2016 Grade: C+ 2017 Outlook: Chargois is poised to make a big jump forward in his second season, and should be in line for a setup job with the Twins out of the gates. There's a pretty decent chance he's closing games by year's end. Brandon Kintzler, RHP 2016 Stats: 54.1 IP, 3.15 ERA, 17 SV, 35 K, 8 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 3.61 FIP Contract Status: Under contract for ~$2.5 million (arbitration estimate) In 2013 and 2014, Kintzler was a reliably solid sinkerballing middle reliever for the Brewers. In 2015, a knee tendon issue that had long bothered him required surgery, costing him nearly the entire season. Milwaukee decided to move on from the 31-year-old and Minnesota snagged him on a minor-league contract. Kintzler came back, completely recapturing his previous form and then some with a 1.3 BB/9 rate that ranked sixth in the majors among relievers and a 61.9 percent grounder rate that ranked ninth. That was a recipe for consistently solid results, and the righty thrived for a long time after assuming the closer role in June. Kintzler converted 13 of his first 14 save attempts while regularly turning in clean and efficient innings. But his high contact rate left the door open for opposing lineups to string together hits, and it eventually caught up with him. In his final 12 appearances he gave up 22 knocks over 12 2/3 innings, blew two saves, and sparked the worst bullpen meltdown of the year against Kansas City on September 6th when the unit turned a 3-3 tie into a 10-3 loss. The ugly finish does not, however, overly diminish a resurgent campaign for the veteran right-hander. 2016 Grade: B+ 2017 Outlook: He may reclaim the closer role simply because he's the incumbent, but flaws that showed through during an ugly final month cannot be ignored. As an efficient grounder machine, Kintzler seems better suited for a role that involves pitching multiple middle innings. Trevor May, RHP 2016 Stats: 42.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 60 K, 17 BB, 1.31 WHIP, 3.80 FIP Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 The hope that May's pitches would play up in shorter bullpen stints was certainly fulfilled. The righty gained zip on all of his offerings and boasted impressive swing-and-miss stuff. His 12.7 K/9 rate ranked 10th among big-leaguers with 40-plus innings. But the increase in power came attached to a dramatic decrease in command. May's walk rate nearly doubled from the previous year and he astonishingly uncorked 10 wild pitches in 44 appearances. Outside of his occasional ugly hiccups, though, May was largely effective on the mound. His biggest problem was an inability to stay there. Recurring back problems cost him a month in the middle of the season, and most of August and September. He was diagnosed with a stress fracture near the end of the year, but should be fine with an offseason to heal. 2016 Grade: C- 2017 Outlook: It's not totally clear the switch in routine was responsible for May's physical breakdown, but it likely played a part given his record of durability in the past. Though he showed all the qualities of an impact late-inning reliever, and looked the part at times, he deserves another shot at starting and it sounds like he'll get it. Ryan O'Rourke, LHP 2016 Stats: 25 IP, 3.96 ERA, 24 K, 10 BB, 1.12 WHIP, 4.11 FIP Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 Throughout the minor leagues, O'Rourke was nearly invincible against left-handed hitters. This skill was on display as a rookie in 2015 (.560 OPS vs. LHB) and even more so this year, as he held same-sided opponents to a measly .077/.167/.192 slash line. For some reason, however, he faced twice as many righties, against whom he was far less effective (though not disastrous). He was designated for assignment in early May, but made it through waivers and returned to the Twins in August, finishing with a good six weeks. During his time in Rochester, he was straight-up deadly (1.93 ERA). When strategically deployed in the right spots, O'Rourke is capable of being one of the league's better bullpen specialists and he proved that again this year. 2016 Grade: B- 2017 Outlook: Given that he was removed from the 40-man roster at one point this summer, O'Rourke is probably behind Boshers and Taylor Rogers in the southpaw reliever pecking order. But his ability to dispatch lefty hitters has been superior to both. His status depends on what type of bullpen Paul Molitor – and his higher-ups – wish to go with. Ryan Pressly, RHP 2016 Stats: 75.1 IP, 3.70 ERA, 67 K, 23 BB, 1.35 WHIP, 3.74 FIP Contract Status: Contract Status: Under contract for ~$1.5 million (arbitration estimate) In his first year with the Twins after they acquired him in the Rule 5 draft, Pressly was a nice surprise, posting a 3.87 ERA over 49 appearances as a rookie. Three years later, he was sporting about 3 extra MPH on all of his pitches, and he nearly doubled his K-rate to 20.4 percent. Yet, the results were pretty much the same. He was a perfectly serviceable seventh inning guy who was thrust into a higher-leverage role due to injuries elsewhere. "Good, not great" seems a very fair description of his season. 2016 Grade: B 2017 Outlook: Bringing a 95 MPH heater and, on some days, truly shutdown stuff, Pressly is a nice weapon to have in the middle innings. But in a good bullpen he should be the third or fourth option, and so the goal should be to build that kind of quality depth ahead of him. Taylor Rogers, LHP 2016 Stats: 61.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 64 K, 16 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 3.57 FIP Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 Though he came up through the minors as a starter, it was always fairly evident Rogers would wind up in the bullpen due to his ineffectiveness against righties. Perhaps having learned from the Brian Duensing experience, the Twins skipped the step of having Rogers fail in the big-league rotation, instead using him exclusively in relief and reaping the benefits. Rogers spent most of his year in Minnesota, operating as a trustworthy situational weapon (.547 OPS vs. LHB). His weakness against those swinging from the other side was glaringly visible, though, as righties knocked him around for a .291/.349/.462 line in 172 plate appearances. Much like O'Rourke, he was damaged by misuse, but it was generally an encouraging first year in the majors for the 26-year-old. 2016 Grade: B 2017 Outlook: Rogers should be entrenched, having spent the majority of 2016 in Molitor's bullpen with strong output. All he needs to do is repeat his rookie performance to be a very helpful contributor. Michael Tonkin, RHP 2016 Stats: 71.2 IP, 5.02 ERA, 80 K, 24 BB, 1.45 WHIP, 4.40 FIP Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 Finally receiving an overdue prolonged look in the majors, Tonkin showed some nice signs. His potent fastball/slider combo produced plenty of strikeouts. In fact, his 80 whiffs were the most by a Twins reliever since Joe Nathan notched 89 back in 2009. The strikeouts didn't do enough for him though. When opponents made contact it was loud, leading to an .831 OPS and 13 home runs. Tonkin's performance especially unraveled in the final leg of the campaign. Personally, I tend to think this related to the former Triple-A closer's ill-fitting assignment as a long reliever, but in any case, he finished with poor numbers pretty much across the board. 2016 Grade: D+ 2017 Outlook: I'd be curious to see what Tonkin and his big fastball could do in a more traditional one-inning relief role. Will Molitor and the new front office feel the same way? With no minor-league options remaining, Tonkin will face an uphill battle to remain in the organization in March. Click here to view the article

Yeah, I guess for me it was whether I could find any redeeming factors in their performances. Duffey at least had solid peripherals. Santiago was decent enough after the hideous start. With Hughes and Berrios, the only positive thing you can say is that we know both are capable of much, much better than they showed.

Polanco isn't an SS. Sano isn't an RF. They don't dictate where they play in the field so I cut them a little slack. I guess you could make a similar argument for Duffey being miscast as a reliever, except that he's pitched pretty much exclusively as a starter for the past four years so for the time he's judged upon that. As for Vargas, I put a lot of stock into the patience and power. As a guy whose value is going to be almost solely vested in his offensive production, that's big. You can make a case that he should have been dinged more for the high K-rate and .230 average but to me an .833 OPS in spite of that is all the more impressive.

"As we turn our gaze to starting pitching, the criteria will be at least five starts, and still in the organization."

There's a fair argument to be made for an A-. But his numbers outside of ERA were all very much in line with his norms, and he fell well short of 200 innings. By his standards I would say it was a very good season but not the kind of career year that gets you into the A range IMO.

Could you explain why you feel those grades are inaccurate relative to these ones? Each of the three players you mentioned was an above-average hitter. Meanwhile every starter other than Santana was far below average.

Earlier this week, we published reviews of all the position players on the 2016 Minnesota Twins. Even on a 103-loss club, numerous individuals received above-average grades, and that felt fitting for a respectable offensive unit that scored the most runs of any Minnesota team since 2010. Today we'll break down the rotation, where things were significantly less rosy.For our position player rundown, you can find infielders here and outfielders here. As we turn our gaze to starting pitching, the criteria will be at least five starts, and still in the organization. Off we go... Jose Berrios, RHP 2016 Stats: 58.1 IP, 3-7, 8.02 ERA, 49 K, 35 BB, 1.87 WHIP, 6.20 FIP Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 The stuff was there. You can say that much for Berrios in his rookie season. The overpowering potential of his pitches was on full display as he whipped lively 94 MPH fastballs and broke off diving offspeeds. That's the extent of positivity, though, and it's not even all that positive because the 22-year-old's electric arsenal was useless to him in practical terms. Whether it was nerves, mechanical issues, highly selective hitters, or some combination of all those things... he simply could not command any of his offerings. Berrios constantly fell behind in the count, leading to an endless barrage of walks, hits and home runs. He recorded only one quality start in 14 tries, and it met the lowest possible standard for the statistic (6 IP, 3 ER). Berrios has dominated every level of the minor leagues – including some eye-popping numbers at Triple-A – and was among the youngest players to throw a pitch in the majors this year. In the big picture, there isn't much reason for alarm. But there's no way around it: his rookie campaign was an unrelenting disaster. 2016 Grade: F 2017 Outlook: Berrios is certainly a wild-card in Minnesota's rotation plans. They need to at least tentatively carve out a rotation spot for him, because it makes little sense to send him back to Rochester unless he has a crummy spring. But given how he finished – completely out of sorts and bewildered – that's not exactly an unthinkable scenario. Tyler Duffey, RHP 2016 Stats: 133 IP, 9-12, 6.43 ERA, 114 K, 32 BB, 1.50 WHIP, 4.73 FIP Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 Arriving with gusto in the second half of 2015, Duffey was a huge bright spot down the stretch, delivering consistently sterling outings following a clunker debut in Toronto. Enthusiasm was tempered, though, as we wondered how long he could survive as a starter with a two-pitch repertoire. Opposing lineups, now more familiar with his limited attack plan, came better prepared this time around. Hitters increasingly laid off his curve and keyed on a completely unexceptional fastball. He spent most of the year in the big leagues but rarely strung together consecutive decent starts. His strikeout and walks rates weren't bad, but at the end of the day Duffey was simply too hittable. 2016 Grade: D- 2017 Outlook: Given his enduring ineffectiveness as a starter throughout the summer, it's inexplicable that the Twins didn't take a look at the former collegiate closer in the bullpen late in the year. Perhaps the new regime will have a different take on Duffey, who can undoubtedly be a weapon in some form. Kyle Gibson, RHP 2016 Stats: 147.1 IP, 11-11, 5.07 ERA, 104 K, 55 BB, 1.56 WHIP, 4.70 FIP Contract Status: Under contract for 2017 for ~$2.5M (arbitration estimate) The model for a competitive Twins team in 2016 was, in large part, reliant on Gibson and Ervin Santana being steady staples atop the rotation. One didn't hold up his end of the bargain. Gibson got off to a sluggish start, missed the entire month of May with a shoulder strain, and never put together any particularly strong stretches after returning. Did that injury, along with back and leg ailments he reported at various points, affect the righty on the mound? It sure looks that way. Gibson took a major step backward after steadily improving during his first three big-league seasons. He flashed diminished velocity on each of his pitches. His signature sinker lacked the requisite movement, contributing to a career-low 48.8 percent grounder rate and a career-high 20 home runs allowed. When he's on his game Gibson has the formula for reliably solid, if unspectacular pitching results. But his game was amiss this year. Like so many others on the Twins and around the world, the 29-year-old is no doubt eager to put 2016 behind him. 2016 Grade: D 2017 Outlook: He's earned enough cred within this organization that he'll have a fairly secure hold on a rotation spot even coming off a lackluster campaign. Unless his health continues to deteriorate, Gibson will surely be better next year. But how much better? Phil Hughes, RHP 2016 Stats: 59 IP, 1-7, 5.95 ERA, 34 K, 13 BB, 1.51 WHIP, 5.08 FIP Contract Status: Signed through 2019 for $39.6 million Gibson's 2016 campaign might have been sabotaged to some degree by physical setbacks, but he's got nothing on Hughes. It was evident during the previous season that Hughes' arm strength was dwindling, and unfortunately his focused winter regimen did nothing to stem the tide. Hughes was an elite control artist during his first two years in Minnesota, with an MLB-best 0.79 BB/9 rate. His ability to locate and stay in the zone has remained intact more or less, but this year, as the quality of his pitches continued to decline, his results followed suit. Batters teed off on lukewarm heaters and flat cutters. Many days, it was clear that a laboring Hughes was attempting to get by on nothing but guile and luck. In mid-May he pulled himself from his best performance of the season at 75 pitches, complaining of fatigue. It wasn't long afterward that the right-hander was shut down, subsequently undergoing thoracic outlet surgery. I do admire Hughes for toughing it out and taking the ball while his body betrayed him. It's just a shame that the coaching staff didn't take the decision out of his hands sooner, amidst the obvious reality that his bum shoulder was preventing him from being able to compete. Grade: F 2017 Outlook: By the time he reports for spring training in February. Hughes will be nearly eight months removed from his operation, which typically has a 4-6 month recovery timetable. He should be back to full strength; it's just unclear what full strength means for him at this point. The 30-year-old is in an ambiguous spot with a range of possible outcomes that spans from front-end starter (as he was in 2014) to relief pitcher to total non-factor. Ervin Santana, RHP 2016 Stats: 181.1 IP, 7-11, 3.38 ERA, 149 K, 53 BB, 1.22 WHIP, 3.81 FIP Contract Status: Signed through 2018 for $28 million Santana is a breath of fresh air on this list, and he certainly was that for the Twins rotation. It's difficult to imagine how unsightly this unit would have been if not for the welcome respite of Big Erv going every fifth day. While the pitching staff collapsed around him, Santana enjoyed one of the better seasons of his career, gobbling up quality innings from start to finish with a brief disabled stint in late April representing his only absence. The veteran righty was particularly excellent during the second half, posting a 2.43 ERA in the final three months while the club faded into oblivion. During that span, he allowed more than three earned runs only once in 16 starts. In a year where every other Twins starter brought his worst, Santana brought his best. Grade: B+ 2017 Outlook: He'll be the Opening Day starter without a doubt, barring an unlikely trade. We probably shouldn't expect a repeat of his peak 2016 performance but Santana can certainly be a mid-rotation stalwart on a good team. Hector Santiago, LHP 2016 Stats (w/ Twins): 61.1 IP, 5.58 ERA, 37 K, 22 BB, 1.42 WHIP, 5.82 FIP Contract Status: Under contract for 2017 for ~$8.0 million (arbitration estimate) While Santana was able to avoid the contagious ineptitude that struck the Twins rotation in 2016, another former Angel was not so lucky. Santiago was enjoying a solid season, and a highly impressive hot streak, when he was traded to Minnesota at the deadline. But when he went north, his numbers went south. Santiago's poor overall numbers with the Twins were largely the result of an outrageously bad first four starts, as he settled in with a 3.19 ERA over his final seven turns. But even then, his K/BB ratio was unimpressive and his success hardly convincing. Grade: D- 2017 Outlook: The Twins appear poised to run with Santiago in his final year of arbitration, even though the price tag will be quite high following such a poor showing. His track record merits another look and there's little reason to think the southpaw can't return to being a serviceable starter. Perhaps a good first half would generate trade interest at the deadline. Click here to view the article

haha, hey I'm not denying it. I still confident it'll happen with Sano at some point. We'll treat the timetable on that prediction like Dave's 24-hour window for the Dozier trade...

I'm less interested in what the overly optimistic local expectations were, and more concerned with what the objective outside expectations were. For instance, look at the ZiPS projections before this year. They pegged Buxton at .266/.310/.405. He met that .715 OPS almost exactly. I gave him a bump to the low B range because his defense was truly tremendous and his final month was off the charts. ZiPS had Kepler at .252/.310/.396. He exceeded his OPS projection by a healthy margin. I gave him bonus points for delivering some unforgettable single-game performances, and for the fact that he was able to accumulate 450 PA at all. The kid hadn't played a game above Double-A in the minors entering this year.

Well, expectations and context come into play to some extent. The standards are a little different here. Not a guy in this bunch had a season with 500 MLB plate appearances before this year. I don't think it'd be a very interesting exercise if I gave everyone D's because they fall very short of being Mike Trout.

It's mostly intended an assessment of the players' MLB performance, but also a review of their seasons as a whole. For instance, Buxton gets a slight boost for responding so well in Rochester when demoted (.927 OPS in two stints). Meanwhile, the reason Murphy only got 82 PA with the Twins is because he couldn't hit his way out of Triple-A all summer. So that factors into the bad grade and I don't know why it wouldn't.

The cumulative GPA for outfielders and infielders equates to 2.08, which is slightly above a C. Seems about right to me for an offense that was roughly average and scored the most runs of any Twins team since 2010. Don't expect the pitching grades to be so kind