Nick Nelson

I'm just not sure why you're dubious over Buxton "performing well in a short period of time," but in the next breath you express zero concern over Kepler doing the same thing. Difference is that Buxton did so at a younger age while playing fantastic defense in center field, as opposed to so-so defense in RF. They graded out the same but if you're arguing that Kepler should have a higher mark I don't see it.

Yesterday, we graded out the 2016 Minnesota Twins infield. Today, we'll continue our player-by-player review with a breakdown of the outfield. This unit saw many significant developments this year, especially with young talents experiencing breakthroughs and setbacks.As with the infielders, our criteria for inclusion on this list are that the player made at least 50 plate appearances and remains on the roster as of now. Let's dig in. Byron Buxton, CF 2016 Stats: 331 PA, .225/.284/.430, 10 HR, 38 RBI, 44 R, 1.7 WAR Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 It took Buxton a little longer than we hoped to turn the corner, but he did so quite definitively late in the year. Following months of struggles, and multiple demotions to Triple-A, the 22-year-old caught fire upon returning in September, posting a .287/.357/.653 line with nine homers and 24 runs scored in 29 games. The torrid streak was profound enough to raise his overall numbers back to respectability by year's end. His final OPS of .714 – up more than 150 points from when he was recalled with five weeks to go – wasn't far off the league average for center fielders (.730) and came attached to elite, game-changing defense at a vital position. His contributions in the field were deemed valuable enough by FanGraphs that his 1.7 WAR ranked second on the team among position players, behind Brian Dozier. The prolonged slumps that forced him to spend stretches in Rochester (where he dominated) and the ghastly 36 percent strikeout rate cannot be ignored, so Buxton's grade gets dinged, but in the end it's hard to come away from his season with a negative view. 2016 Grade: B- 2017 Outlook: Buxton will be locked in as center fielder and seems likely to bat leadoff if he displays a good plate approach in spring training. Should he come anywhere close to picking up where he left off at the plate, he's a strong bet to be the best player on the team and one of the most valuable in the league. Robbie Grossman, LF 2016 Stats: 389 PA, .280/.386/.443, 11 HR, 37 RBI, 49 R, 0.7 WAR Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 In a generally tough year for the front office under Terry Ryan, uncovering Grossman goes down easily as one of the club's best strokes. To some extent it was just fortuitous circumstance; the outfielder had opted out of his minor-league deal with Cleveland in mid-May, around the same time Minnesota was desperately seeking outfield help with its youthful alignment scuffling badly. Still, Grossman was a good find and enjoyed a breakout year after joining up with the Twins. His production tailed off considerably following an initial tear, but he continued to draw walks and get on base even while his bat sagged, and he finished strong. Grossman ended the year with a .386 on-base percentage, which ranked 14th in the majors among players with 350-plus PA. His proclivity in this regard was much needed in a lineup that generally struggled to get aboard consistently. On the downside, Grossman's defense was not good. He made several misplays and showed stunningly little range for a guy who moves reasonably well. 2016 Grade: B 2017 Outlook: Grossman certainly has a strong case for a starting job. He was the best hitter on the team outside of Dozier, and his patience is a handy changeup within an aggressive, power-hitting lineup. However, his extremely poor defensive ratings will work against him with an analytically inclined front office that is emphasizing run prevention. Could he be a darkhorse for DH? Max Kepler, RF 2016 Stats: 447 PA, .235/.309/.424, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 52 R, 1.1 WAR Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 Recalled on June 1st after a scalding hot streak in Triple-A, it didn't take Kepler long to heat up again in the majors. During a dominant run that stretched from mid-June through mid-August, Kepler looked like a premier middle-of-the-order run producer, racking up extra-base hits and averaging nearly an RBI per contest. In one game he homered twice and drove in seven runs; in another he launched three bombs with six RBIs. They were among the most spectacular offensive performances we've seen from a Minnesota rookie. But the once red-hot 23-year-old finished his season encased in ice. Over his last 40 games he hit .197/.263/.276 as the quality of his at-bats deteriorated and his power dried up. In contrast to Buxton, it appeared that pitchers were figuring Kepler out rather than the other way around. The slide led to overall numbers that, while solid, were not special. 2016 Grade: B- 2017 Outlook: He's penciled in for right field, although one wonders how firm his hold is. Kepler blasted through Rochester in 30 games but the back half of his stint with the Twins leaves open the possibility that he needs a little more seasoning at Triple-A. The long-term view remains very optimistic. Eddie Rosario, LF 2016 Stats: 354 PA, .269/.295/.421, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 52 R, 0.9 WAR Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 An exciting rookie year led to speculation about what kind of impact Rosario might be capable of if he evolved and matured. Unfortunately, in his sophomore campaign, he did no such thing. Rosario was much the same player in 2016, with some frustrating habits lingering if not worsening. Whether in the batter's box, on the base paths or in the outfield, his aggressiveness often crossed into recklessness, much to the manager's aggravation. Along with the bad – blasting through stops signs, sailing throws aimlessly, striking out four times in several games – we saw the good. When he came back from his demotion he was mashing everything that came his way for two months. And aside from the all-too-frequent miscues he was a clear asset in left, combining center field range with right field arm strength. But the negatives were enough to offset the positives in an ultimately vexing year. 2016 Grade: C 2017 Outlook: He will be a corner outfield starter, unless he's a complete mess in camp. There's little hope for Rosario to develop any sort of meaningful selectiveness at the plate, so it's imperative that he lay off pitches nowhere near the zone while cutting down defensive mistakes. If he can do so, the 25-year-old certainly has plenty to offer. Danny Santana, CF 2016 Stats: 248 PA, .240/.279/.326, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 29 R, -0.7 WAR Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 Among 353 players with 200 plate appearances, Santana ranked 334th in OPS. He was thrown out nine times on 21 steal attempts. He played six different positions, but wasn't particularly sharp at any of them. As an athletic and versatile switch-hitter, Santana is theoretically a nice bench piece. But in reality, he's been one of the worst players in the league over the last two years. 2016 Grade: F 2017 Outlook: The signing of J.B Shuck to a minor-league contract – whose defensive prowess actually makes up for his light hitting – earlier this month puts Santana, who is out of options, on notice. It's unlikely Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will see much they like but apparently they're inclined to let Santana compete for a job in spring training since they kept him on the 40-man roster through the Rule 5 draft. 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For what it's worth, in his report about Vargas getting a fourth option last month, Berardino also mentioned that Vargas "was drawing some trade interest." I tend to think that the strengths mentioned in his write-up (switch-hitter sporting patience and power from an intimidating physique) would catch the eyes of a team, but obviously no one is giving up much of consequence for him at this point. I too wonder about this. I haven't heard any explanation. There doesn't seem to be anything all that unique about his situation. He was added to the 40-man after 2013, was optioned in each of the next three years. I guess he must have met both criteria here? http://screencast.com/t/fQXjIBcU

As the newly installed Minnesota Twins leadership navigates its first offseason, the challenge is twofold: evaluating the personnel already in place, while supplementing and improving the existing core. As we await more movement on the latter front, let's review the roster that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are inheriting, and how it fared in the most recent season.We'll start our case-by-case review of the 2016 Twins with a look at the infield. Each player who accrued at least 50 plate appearances, and remains in the organization currently, gets a write-up below. Brian Dozier, 2B 2016 Stats: 691 PA, .268/.340/.546, 42 HR, 99 RBI, 104 R, 5.9 WAR Contract Status: Signed through 2018 for $15 million Dozier easily had the best season of any Twin, and in fact his performance measures as one of the best in franchise history. He was a one-man wrecking crew, piling up 82 extra-base hits (tied with Colorado's Nolan Arenado for third-most in the majors) while swiping 18 bases on 20 attempts. He filled the stat sheet and single-handedly produced offense in a way we've rarely seen. For this elite power to come from a middle infield position, along with steady and occasionally spectacular glove work at second base, only increases the relative value of Dozier's output. In a sea of disappointing performances, the veteran clubhouse leader delivered one for the ages – which sadly would do little to stem the tide for an historically inept team. 2016 Grade: A+ 2017 Outlook: If he's still here, Dozier will enter 2017 as the featured centerpiece in a powerful lineup. Will he continue to bat leadoff, as he did for every game in August and September, or move to a more traditional run-producing spot at the heart of the order? Eduardo Escobar, SS 2016 Stats: 377 PA, .236/.280/.338, 6 HR, 37 RBI, 32 R, -0.6 WAR Contract Status: Signed through 2017 for $2.6 million It was a rough year for Escobar. Just when it appeared he had found a home at shortstop, overtaking the position in 2015 and earning an Opening Day nod this past spring, he was derailed by middling production, injuries, and the emergence of an exciting rookie who captured the manager's favor. By season's end, he had fallen back into his familiar old utility role. In September and October, only two of his 19 starts came at shortstop, and he dragged across the finish line offensively with a brutal .348 OPS. The 27-year-old bottomed out at the exact wrong time, reflected by a meager $500,000 raise this offseason. 2016 Grade: D- 2017 Outlook: Escobar is undoubtedly as motivated as ever to bounce back and prove himself next year, but as things stand he will be heading to camp as a backup, capable of filling in around the diamond. Joe Mauer, 1B 2016 Stats: 576 PA, .261/.363/.389, 11 HR, 49 RBI, 68 R, 1.0 WAR Contract Status: Signed through 2018 for $46 million In some ways, Mauer revived hope in his ability to be a solid contributor. Following a 2015 season that was the worst of his career, he raised his OPS back to a respectable level while matching his highest home run total (11) since the MVP campaign in 2009. His walk rate rebounded to 13.7 percent, placing him among the league leaders, and as a result he led all Twins regulars with a .363 OBP. In other ways, though, 2016 was a reaffirmation of Mauer's diminished ability. The three-time batting champion saw his batting average drop for a third straight year, sinking to a career-low .261. His characteristically pedestrian home run total was accompanied by only 22 doubles, his fewest in a full season. Defensively he was nothing special. 2016 Grade: C 2017 Outlook: Turning 34 next March, Mauer remains entrenched at first base by virtue of his contract and reputation, but reduced playing time will be a very real possibility if his bat shows little life in the early part of the season. John Ryan Murphy, C 2016 Stats: 82 PA, .146/.193/.220, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R, -0.5 WAR Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 With Kurt Suzuki and Juan Centeno moving on, Murphy is the only member of the 2016 Minnesota catching group set to return. Unfortunately, he was also the worst performer. After starting his Twins career with a 3-for-40 slump, Murphy was demoted to Triple-A, where he continued to hit poorly. He posted a .609 OPS in Rochester, then returned to the majors as a September call-up, collecting three hits in his triumphant return and then finishing out 6-for-38. It was, from any perspective, a disastrous first year for a player whose offensive capabilities were always more hypothetical than material. Defensively he is above-average, with strong athleticism behind the plate, but he doesn't shine enough there to offset the staggering lack of production we've seen since his acquisition. Not even close. 2016 Grade: F 2017 Outlook: Barring further moves, Murphy figures to slot in as the backup to Jason Castro. Most of his starts will hopefully come against lefties. If the bat doesn't turn around quickly, then I'd expect Falvey and Levine (who of course played no part in trading for Murphy) to move on quickly. Byung Ho Park, 1B 2016 Stats: 244 PA, .191/.275/.409, 12 HR, 24 RBI, 28 R, 0.1 WAR Contract Status: Signed through 2019 for $9.25 million Along with Murphy, Park was Minnesota's biggest offseason splash a year ago. The fact that both players spent large chunks of the season in Triple-A certainly glares as an indictment of Terry Ryan and his efforts to bolster an 83-win team. Park, though, was not quite as discouraging a case. The vaunted power was there, clearly. There were some memorable, mammoth shots among the dozen that the South Korean slugger sent over the fence during his time with the Twins. But he was generally overmatched by MLB pitching, and his average sagged until it dropped below .200 and he was demoted in early July. In Triple-A, the story was much the same – great power accompanied by little else – until he underwent season-ending hand surgery. The ailment that placed him under the knife – a damaged tendon in his right hand – bothered him in addition to wrist tendinitis, and certainly might help explain his difficulties swinging the stick. He was also acclimating to a new league, a new country and a new culture. And consider this: if Park exchanged 10 strikeouts for 10 singles during his time in Minnesota, his line turns to .237/.316/.456. That's the kind of production you can live with from a DH. 2016 Grade: D 2017 Outlook: Park will likely be ticketed for Triple-A initially next spring, but it would be no shock if a big showing earns him the DH job with Minnesota. Generating more contact will be the decisive factor. Jorge Polanco, SS 2016 Stats: 270 PA, .282/.332/.424, 4 HR, 27 RBI, 24 R, -0.1 WAR Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 Finally breaking through after cups of coffee in 2014 and 2015, Polanco enjoyed a very successful rookie season. He consistently made contact, put up strong numbers, and operated as the everyday shortstop in the final months. There is plenty to like about the 23-year-old's offensive profile. He swings from both sides, makes plenty of contact and sprays line drives. But his ceiling at the plate is limited, and his proper home in the infield is very much in question. Polanco's aptitude at shortstop, a position he had mostly stopped playing in the minors, was iffy at best. 2016 Grade: B 2017 Outlook: He has arrived, no doubt about that. Based on the demonstrated preferences of Paul Molitor, Polanco is the favorite to start at shortstop for now. But with the team focusing intensely on run prevention, the wisdom of plugging in a blatant defensive liability at the infield's most important position is suspect. Of course, a Dozier trade would open up Polanco's ideal spot. Miguel Sano, RF/3B 2016 Stats: 495 PA, .236/.319/.462, 25 HR, 66 RBI, 57 R, 1.3 WAR Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 It was a disappointing sophomore season for Sano, but only in the shadow of his prodigious talent and the incredibly high bar he set as a rookie. Without that context, a .781 OPS and 25 jacks from a 23-year-old who fell just short of 500 plate appearances due to injury ain't bad at all. Sano started the year miscast as an outfielder, and spent the second half alternating between DH and third base, where he managed to commit 15 errors in 42 starts. Cleaning up his defense, and lowering his egregious 36 percent K-rate, will be critical in taking the step to stardom. 2016 Grade: B- 2017 Outlook: The decision to release Trevor Plouffe was an indication that the Twins are ready to move forward with Sano at the hot corner, despite his mistake-prone showing in 2016. Lessons learned from the trials he faced should lead to greater resolve and focus moving forward. He remains an MVP-caliber talent at the dish. Kennys Vargas, 1B 2016 Stats: 177 PA, .230/.333/.500, 10 HR, 20 RBI, 27 R, 0.6 WAR Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017 It's been quite the rollercoaster ride for Vargas. He burst onto the scene with a prolific MLB debut as a September call-up in 2014, then opened as designated hitter the following season. He nearly played his way out of the team's plans during the ensuing summer, with an embarrassing demotion to Double-A speaking loudly. He opened 2016 in Rochester and started slow, then heated up in May and June, earning his way back to the majors. Upon returning, he tore it up for six weeks, got demoted due to a roster crunch, then came back in September and slumped. With all the ups and downs, it's tough to know what to make of Vargas. But this much is evident: he's a big switch-hitter with immense raw power, whose walk rate (13.6%) and Isolated Power (.270) would have both ranked near the top of the league if had he qualified. His uneven performance carried many positive signs, but time is running out for the 26-year-old. As a guy whose sole value proposition is mashing the ball, he needs to start doing so with a lot more consistency. 2016 Grade: B 2017 Outlook: Having been optioned to the minors three times already, Vargas would typically be in a position next spring where he'd need to head north with the Twins or be exposed to waivers. But the club successfully petitioned for a fourth option year (per Mike Berardino) so sending him back to Triple-A is on the table. The door is open for signing a plug-in at DH; otherwise, it might come down to a Grapefruit League competition between Vargas and Park. Click here to view the article

It's a fair way to look at it. Perhaps a good idea for a future article would be comparing the top five Twins pitching prospects to the top five for other teams in the division. I tend to think Minnesota has more quality depth than most, but without De Leon they are lacking that guy with a true ace profile.

Update here on stalling Dozier trade talks from Jon Heyman: http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-dodgers-twins-standstill-dozier-trade-talks/ Sounds like the two sides are agreed on De Leon as the main piece, but reaching an impasse on the rest of the package. Twins pushing for Alvarez or Buehler and getting rebuked (unsurprisingly). Hopefully the deal doesn't fall apart because disagreement over the secondary pieces.

Not to veer too far into this subject and away from the one at hand, but as an enormous Lin Manuel Miranda fan, I absolutely loved this bit he did about the Puerto Rican situation on John Oliver's show earlier this year:

Fair point! Tweaked.

We live in an unpredictable world, but some things aren't that hard to foresee. When a batter steps into the box with a 3-0 count and the bases loaded, he can safely assume a fastball is on the way. The Dodgers emerging as the leading suitors for Brian Dozier, and dangling Jose De Leon as their primary negotiating chip, falls in the same category.Back in early October, while the Los Angeles was still mounting its postseason push, I noted via tweet that a Dozier-for-De Leon swap "makes too much sense." In the Offseason Handbook (still available for free download!), the Dodgers were the first team we listed as a fit for Dozier, and our Offseason Blueprint suggested trading the second baseman for a return led by De Leon. Now, the Twins are consistently being connected to Los Angeles in trade rumors. Last week Aaron Gleeman relayed, per league sources, a feeling that the two teams are haggling over what would come along with De Leon in a deal. Days later, Yahoo Sports columnist Jeff Passan reinforced that notion, reporting that the "Dodgers have shown willingless" to include the top prospect in a package for Dozier. It's all coming together pretty much exactly like we predicted and hoped. My intention here isn't to pat myself on the back. Anticipating this scenario didn't require some divine prescience – only an ability to connect the dots. The Twins are coming off a 103-loss season and could use a major shakeup, with a roster featuring a surplus of power hitting and an extreme dearth of high-caliber pitching. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are as motivated as any team in the league to get over the hump and win a title, with young arms to spare. The top prize amongst that group, Julio Urias, was never a particularly realistic target. After successfully transitioning to the majors at age 19 and subsequently becoming the youngest pitcher ever to start a postseason game, he's not the kind of asset that was going to be made available. De Leon, though? Far more plausible. He is four years older than Urias and doesn't carry quite the same level of luster. He also struggled a bit in his MLB debut this year and has dealt with some shoulder issues. He's not a perfect prospect. But that doesn't mean he's leftover scraps. Far from it. In the majority of systems De Leon would be the No. 1 prospect, and if he comes over he will immediately leapfrog every pitcher on the farm for the Twins. Let's familiarize ourselves with De Leon as we prepare for the possibility that he headlines an upcoming Dozier blockbuster. Meteoric Riser After finishing up high school in his native Puerto Rico, De Leon headed to the mainland to attend college in Baton Rouge. His career with Southern University featured solid numbers, including a 17-8 record and 3.50 ERA over three seasons, but he didn't catch the eyes of many pro scouts. As a result, the slender righty dropped all the way to the 24th round. He was the 724th player selected in 2013. Earlier in that round, the Twins took Brandon Easton, a pitcher who lasted two years in rookie ball before fizzling out of the system. For players selected this late, the odds of reaching the majors – or even hanging on in the affiliated pro ranks for long – are not good. Against this backdrop, De Leon's ascension is all the more impressive. His numbers began to rapidly improve and remained strong as he climbed the ladder. He impressed enough at each level that he never stayed anywhere for long. De Leon made four starts at Low-A, seven at High-A, 16 at Double-A and then 16 at Triple-A before getting his call to the big leagues. Everywhere he pitched, it took him no more than half a season to convince the front office that he was too good for the competition. Prospect pubs quickly took notice. Prior to the 2016 campaign, three major lists (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com) had De Leon somewhere between 23 and 28, after never ranking him before. The website Minor League Ball, run by longtime prospect guru John Sickels, had De Leon ranked as the game's 14th-best upcoming talent in their preseason release. In the updated end-of-year rankings, published in late September, he was fifth. Sickels placed only Yoan Moncada, Dansby Swanson, Tyler Glasnow and Lucas Giolito ahead of De Leon. The 24-year-old owes his escalating profile to a number of skills and strengths, but none stand out more than this one: He's A Strikeout Machine De Leon's ability to throw the ball past helpless opposing hitters is truly something to behold. During his time in the minors, he has struck out 446 of the 1,371 men he has faced over 330 innings. That's a 12.1 K/9 average and 33 percent rate. For perspective, Jose Berrios – a fellow Puerto Rican and vaunted strikeout artist in his own right – has a 26 percent K-rate in the minors. De Leon would have easily led both the Texas League (AA) and Pacific Coast League (AAA) this year if he had stuck around long enough to qualify. It's been somewhat rare for the Twins to boast starting pitching prospects who can even average one strikeout per inning. De Leon has 100 more strikeouts than innings pitched during his relatively short time in the Dodgers system. When so few balls are put into play, it's tough to scratch out many hits. So it's no surprise that in those 330 innings of work, De Leon has allowed only 273 hits. Twins pitchers have allowed the most hits of any American League team in five straight seasons. De Leon's Changeup Is A Devastating Weapon In the tradition of Johan Santana, De Leon relies on his changeup as an out pitch. He's comfortable throwing it in any count, and uses it often. The arm action effectively mimics his fastball to create deception, but he takes about 10 MPH off it with significant vertical movement. (Scroll down to the changeup section here for some good looks at it.) Twins pitching coach Neil Allen, who is staying on for 2017, is known to be "big on changeups." He would undoubtedly welcome the chance to work with a starter who has developed the offering into a centerpiece of his repertoire. The Shoulder Is A Concern Or at least, it was. De Leon spent the first month this year in extended spring while recovering from an ankle injury, then made just one start before sitting out another five weeks due to shoulder inflammation. It's not the greatest sign for a guy who is just getting his season started. The Dodgers proceeded very cautiously when the hurler returned from the disabled list, removing him before the fifth inning in each of his first four starts. But by the time he graduated from Triple-A those restrictions were a distant memory. In his final 10 turns with Oklahoma City prior to a September promotion to the majors, De Leon completed seven-plus innings six times and exceeded 100 pitches four times. He also went 6-1 with a 2.43 ERA. At this point there isn't much reason to think he's got a bad wing, but it's something to keep an eye on. He hasn't thrown more than 114 total innings in a season, so he needs to prove he can hold up to a starter's workload. He appeared to wear down in his final starts for the Dodgers. Perhaps this is the main factor compelling the Twins to a hold out for a bit more in addition to De Leon. That's reasonable enough. But even with some minor health concerns, the highly touted late bloomer appears to be a worthy top prize in exchange for Dozier. He would also provide a dramatic boost to an already encouraging pipeline of impending arrivals. Hopefully Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can get this thing done. Click here to view the article

It was a nerve issue in his neck and shoulder. His diagnosis of neuropraxia is considered the least severe peripheral nerve injury but it's just not a great sign for a pitcher who is just getting his career started and already faced questions about handling a starter workload.

I'm trying to recall: when is the last time the Twins have had this much pitching quality in the upper minors? It's been a while, for sure.

Each of these four will probably appear in preseason Top 100 lists (with the exception of JO, who would if he qualified) and all could/should start in Double-A or above next year. So I'm not quite sure what you're getting at.

Obviously Romero has much to prove in terms of taking on a full workload but his injury problems are (hopefully) behind him. And everything he brings to the table is more impressive to me at this point than Jay.

I was highly skeptical of the decision to use a top 6 draft pick on a pitcher who threw almost exclusively out of the bullpen in college. The success rate of converting these guys to starters has not been particularly strong. So I guess seeing him break down before August (despite never throwing 100 pitches in a game, or posting particularly dominant numbers) was sort of a reinforcement of my doubts. But a good strong full season next year would obviously go a long way toward alleviating that.

I'm as big of a Mejia fan as you'll find, and I'd certainly agree he's more MLB-ready than anyone listed other than Berrios. But this grouping was meant to illustrate the prospects with true top-of-rotation potential, and Mejia doesn't have that... at least not yet. His statistical profile and prospect rep don't stack up to these four. As I said, if he gets off to a strong start in Triple-A this year he might make a case for himself.

Where was the reach? I felt the enthusiasm was quite tempered.

In the short-term, a return to respectability for the Minnesota Twins rotation will be dependent on veteran players like Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson and Hector Santiago performing at a high level. However, in the big picture, a youthful wave of upcoming impact talent will make or break the fortunes of this critical unit. Fortunately, it's some quality talent.Presently, there are – by my estimation – four young pitchers in the Twins organization who figure to shape the success of the major-league rotation over the next five years. Each is either 21 or 22 years old, and potentially within a year of reaching the bigs. Let's take a look at each of them, in order of their estimated MLB arrival. ~~~ Jose Berrios, RHP Age: 22 ETA: Early 2017 Obviously, Berrios has already gotten his first taste of the majors. It was nothing short of disastrous. Routinely incapable of finding any semblance of command on the mound, the rookie took a beating over 14 starts with the Twins, registering a hideous 8.04 ERA and failing to reach the sixth inning in any of his last nine turns. There's nowhere to go from here but up, and there are plenty of reasons to believe Berrios will ascend in a hurry following this setback. His stuff, his consistently excellent minor-league results, and his relentless work ethic all make it difficult to believe the right-hander won't figure things out to some extent. With that being said, the gravity of some flaws we saw on display do lessen the likelihood of him turning into a true top-of-the-rotation arm, as we optimistically hoped. His reliance on tailing, spinning pitches around the edges of the zone will make it hard for him to ever develop an efficient approach to dispatching hitters, and Berrios could still easily wind up in the bullpen. But we'll see how he looks in 2017 after an offseason of adjustments. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP Age: 22 ETA: Late 2017 There's no denying the exceptional numbers Gonsalves has posted. In four minor-league seasons he owns a 32-12 record and 2.13 ERA, and he's coming off his best campaign yet. He also looks the part as a big 6'5" left-hander. Scouts and prospect analysts have been somewhat restrained in their enthusiasm for Gonsalves despite his statistical success on the hill. Even after his tremendous 2016 campaign, which ended with an 8-1 run over 13 starts in Double-A, John Sickels of Minor League Ball had the southpaw ranked just 85th, and Gonsalves didn't even appear on Baseball America's midseason top 100. (BA did, though, peg him as the club's second-best prospect behind Nick Gordon in November, following his brilliant showing in Chattanooga) . The dominating pitches and pinpoint command just aren't there to confidently project mastery over big-league hitters, but of course he's still continually improving. And right now he's certainly on track to be a factor for the Twins within the next year or two. Tyler Jay, LHP Age: 22 ETA: 2018 I'll admit that I'm probably lower than most on Jay, as I find it rather concerning that the collegiate reliever's arm couldn't even hold up through even 100 innings in his first year as a starter. With that said, he was the sixth overall draft pick in 2016 and is currently the team's No. 1 prospect according to both MLB.com and USA Today. He has some work to do, but if Jay can further develop a changeup to complement his plainly fantastic fastball/slider combo, while also building the endurance to withstand 30 starts, he still has a very high ceiling. Perhaps higher than either of the two listed above. Fernando Romero, RHP Age: 21 ETA: 2018 Romero is the least well known among this group, since injuries have kept him out of the picture for so long, but he is also the most exciting. He made only three starts above rookie ball (with Cedar Rapids in 2014) before being shut down and missing most of the next two years due to elbow and knee surgeries. Despite this detour, Romero was still only 21 this season and returned with a bang, carving up Low-A and then High-A to finish with a 1.89 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over 16 starts. Brice Zimmerman, who serves as Director of Broadcasting and Media Relations for Fort Myers, tweeted recently that Romero is the best arm he's seen in his six years watching Miracle games. His awe for the young Dominican is mirrored by many others inside and outside the organization. With a hard mid-90s fastball, a plus cutter and good breaking stuff to go along with sharp control, Romero has the recipe for a true top-of-rotation asset. But of course, it will be difficult to feel confident in that assessment until we've seen him put in a full season against upper-minors competition. ~~~ If your faith in the current assortment of veteran arms is iffy (and who could blame you), these four present a hopeful future for the Twins rotation. And I haven't touched on the likes of Adalberto Mejia or Kohl Stewart, who could quickly step into this conversation with hot starts in 2017. Each of these prospects borders on major-league ready, and if even a couple pan out as starters, that's a massive boost. There are these two factors to consider: 1) With a trade sending Brian Dozier to the Dodgers still seeming likely, Jose De Leon is the name that continues to be touted as the likely headliner. De Leon is older than each of the hurlers listed above but would rank above them all on a prospect list and fits the same general timeline. That would be another premium name added to the mix. 2) The Twins, of course, hold the No. 1 pick in next June's draft. If they take a pitcher, especially a college pitcher, it will assuredly be one of the nation's elite amateur talents, with the ability to rise fast. So, although the Twins are coming off one of the worst seasons ever in terms of run prevention, there is plenty of reason to expect much better things in the near future, particularly if the new baseball ops leaders are able to bolster the developmental process. An awful lot of high-caliber help is on the way. Giddy up. Click here to view the article

I wasn't trying to say they'd game the system by putting a completely healthy pitcher on the disabled list. But MLB players are banged up to some extent at most times throughout the season. With the shorter DL minimum, I suspect players (esp pitchers) will be less opposed to going on it, while the commissioner's office will be less stringent about enforcing those rules you mentioned. Minor soreness, strains and aches are now more plausible causes for a DL trip since it only means missing a week and a half. Also, how many times have we seen it where the Twins wait several days to disable a guy because they don't think he needs it, then end up doing it anyway, thus playing at a shorthanded disadvantage in the interim? Hopefully this will help eliminate those kinds of missteps because there will be less reluctance to make a roster move.

This is my understanding. And therein lies the capitulation.

If the belief is that the money not being spent on amateur international talent will go toward the team's payroll, then sure. I think there's a general sense that it'll mostly just go back into owners' pockets.

Just hours ahead of the December 1st deadline, Major League Baseball and its Players Association were able to agree on a restructured Collective Bargaining Agreement, ensuring labor peace through 2021. The new CBA is largely similar to the one it replaces, with a few distinct alterations. Today, we'll look at at some of those changes, and what impact they might have on the Minnesota Twins specifically.The exact details of the renewed agreement – reached under the watch of MLB commissioner Rob Manfred (pictured above) – aren't public, but plenty of details have trickled out. From what we know, here are the biggest changes: Luxury Tax Threshold Increases What Changed? In 2017, the spending threshold at which teams start getting penalized will rise from $189 million to $196 million. It will continue to jump each year until 2021 when it reaches $210 million. Twins Impact: It's a move that is conducive to higher player salaries, since big market clubs will have slightly less limitation on how much they can dole out. Unless the Pohlads suddenly decide to pump another $90 million into payroll, this won't directly affect the Twins, except that salary inflation league-wide may accelerate a little. Shorter Disabled List Stints What Changed? The minimum DL stint is being shortened from 15 days to 10 days. Twins Impact: The idea here is that when a player is a bit nicked up, his team will feel less handcuffed in making a DL move to get some extra help. It's particularly pertinent for starting pitchers, who stand to miss one less start by returning five days earlier than before. The Twins had no shortage of ailments and injuries on their staff, so this should prove helpful for them. (Some have suggested that teams could take advantage of this system by placing a starter on the DL and having him miss one turn – basically giving him a breather – while bringing on an extra reliever in the meantime. Will a Minnesota team that's been as arm-needy as any utilize this strategy? Would it be frowned upon?) New International Spending Caps What Changed? The previous system involved soft caps in the form of bonus pools. If exceeded, the offending team was penalized 100 percent on overages, with limits imposed the following year. Now, there are hard caps, which will vary by team but generally sit around $5 million. Twins Impact: Based on their previous international spending habits, the Twins won't have trouble staying under the limit, which greatly levels the playing field in that it prevents a team like the Dodgers from being able to say 'screw it' and splurge for $45 million to gather up all of the premier foreign young talent, damn the consequences. That's good news for teams like Minnesota, but not so much for these young men and their earning potential. (Boy, does this look like a major capitulation by MLBPA.) One other interesting element of this new arrangement is that teams can trade away percentages of their cap. If Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are committed to using the international free agency channel extensively, then don't be surprised to see them exercise this capability and acquire more flexibility. Or vice versa. (It's worth noting that international players become exempt from these rules when they turn 25, or they've played six years in a pro league. So this wouldn't alter the pursuit of a player like, say, Byung Ho Park.) Free Agent Compensation System Overhauled What Changed? Teams no longer must forfeit a first- or second-round draft pick in order to sign a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer. Twins Impact: Players HATED this rule, and with good reason. For all but the most elite qualifying free agents, it was a stifling burden. However, it worked out pretty damn well for the Twins over the years. As they watched homegrown stars leave via free agency, they stockpiled high picks, leading to the additions of players like Jose Berrios (comp for Michael Cuddyer) and Glen Perkins (Eddie Guardado). Now, the compensation will generally be a third-round pick. Only once did Minnesota sign a free agent with the draft penalty attached. Bringing in Ervin Santana cost them their second-rounder in 2015, but because of this they also got him for less than they otherwise would have. Maybe a lot less. Of course, you will also recall the situation in 2014 where Kendrys Morales elected not to sign until June due to a barren market, and Minnesota was able to eventually snag him. So, those kind of situations won't be happening anymore. Offensive Rookie Hazing Banned What Changed? When it comes to the age-old ritual of dressing up rookies in funny or embarrassing costumes, there have been some lines drawn. A new policy outlaws "dressing up as women or wearing costumes that may be offensive to individuals based on their race, sex, nationality, age, sexual orientation, gender identity or other characteristic." Twins Impact: We'll never see another picture like this one, of Pat Neshek: Download attachment: neshekrookiehaze.jpg That is not a complaint. No More All-Star Home Field Stipulation What Changed? The All-Star Game no longer decides World Series home field advantage. Twins Impact: Well, obviously, they now no longer need to worry about the outcome of a meaningless midsummer exhibition game dictating whether they play Game 1 at Target Field when they reach the big show this October. Or, some October. Hey, a guy can dream. Click here to view the article