Nick Nelson

He would likely be one of the worst defensive starting shortstops in the league. I wouldn't call that "zero reason."

That all may be true but it's anecdotal. The numbers don't bear out any particular level of dominance. His 23.6% K-rate ranked 24th among FSL pitchers with 50+ innings. The strikeouts also tailed off significantly after the first 2 months. His other secondary markers were good-not-great. I realize these may seem like harsh assessments but when we're talking about a 22YO first-round draft pick out of college playing in Single-A, it seems warranted to me. I know not everyone agrees.

We knew that. But it would have been nice if this year could have been spent identifying some of that help. Outside of Santana, not one single starter has been even decent.

I guess I don't really agree with the idea that his season at Single-A was all that encouraging. He pitched well (not dominantly), as you would expect from a Top 10 draft pick out of college. But he broke down late in the year despite the Twins stringently managing his workload. I know a couple of people say he doesn't fit on this list, but I chose to include him because his development is quite important to turning this rotation around and I don't think we have any more clarity now on whether the conversion is going to work out. Personally, I'd say it's more doubtful than before.

A losing season is never the desired outcome, but even a last-place finish can prove productive for a team working to improve and reach the next level. The course of baseball's lengthy season provides ample opportunity to assess and evaluate different players. This information can be very valuable in future planning. Unfortunately, the Twins have failed to gain much clarity on some of the most important questions they face going forward.Here are eight items that the team would have liked to figure out this year amidst the disappointing results: Can Miguel Sano play defense? Well, we know he can't play right field, unsurprisingly. But we don't really know more about his ability to play third base then we did coming into the season. Sano has looked beyond shaky during his limited time in the hot corner, and elbow concerns have further clouded the matter. This puts the Twins in a tough spot because they'll be hard-pressed to drop Trevor Plouffe and commit to Sano as a third baseman, but also would undoubtedly prefer not to relegate him to DH permanently at age 23. Can Trevor May be an effective reliever? This was the club's most pivotal experiment this year other than trying Sano in the outfield. If he could improve upon the promise he showed during his time in a relief role last year, May could be a key part of the bullpen solution, and perhaps even a closer candidate. Instead, he endured a tough campaign filled with fits and starts. May flashed dominance at times but posted poor numbers overall and spent two long stints on the disabled list, calling into question whether he's physically equipped for the task of pitching three or four times per week. Which relievers can be counted on? The plan for the bullpen this year seemed reasonable enough: bypass expensive free agent relievers, and instead sort through the various internal candidates. What have we learned about those candidates over the past five months? Not much. Ryan Pressly has had a solid year and reinforced his status as a decent middle reliever. The same can maybe be said for Brandon Kintzler. But between Michael Tonkin, Taylor Rogers, Buddy Boshers, Ryan O'Rourke, J.T. Chargois, Pat Light, Alex Wimmers, is there a single guy that you really trust to be a central bullpen asset next year on the basis of what we've seen? Can Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins be counted on as factors going forward? Two of the biggest storylines this spring were tied to Hughes and Perkins, veteran pitchers that Minnesota has invested in deeply to anchor the pitching corps. Would Hughes regain his velocity and approach his 2014 form following a massive drop-off in 2015? Would Perkins shake off his brutal finish last year and hold up for a full season? Both hurlers worked out extensively last winter to avoid breaking down but ultimately their efforts were fruitless. Hughes and Perkins each underwent major shoulder surgery, and at this point relying on either to contribute much next year would be folly. Who will lead the rotation? It seems fair to say the Twins have no greater need than identifying at least one starter that can slot at the top of a legitimate rotation and compete against the best arms on other staffs. There were a few different sources of hope this year. Maybe Hughes would bounce back. Nope. Maybe Jose Berrios would hit the ground running and define himself as a front-line MLB talent. Nope. Ervin Santana is the only one who has pitched up to such a standard, and counting on a 33-year-old veteran to sustain the best performance of his career is not wise. Can Tyler Jay start? At the time of last year's draft, many analysts felt that Jay could be the first in his class to reach the majors, if he remained in a relief role. When they selected him sixth overall and committed to trying him as a starter, the Twins knew that they'd be extending his timeline. Still, there was hope that the collegiate hurler would move fairly quickly. That idea was contingent on a highly successful first year of transitioning to his new role, and 2016 could hardly be viewed as that. Jay pitched fairly well over the first half in Single-A, then moved up to Double-A, struggled and had to be shut down with a month left in the season due to shoulder issues. There's no question that the southpaw has talent, but can he pitch effectively when facing quality lineups multiple times, and can his body handle the rigors of a starting workload? We can't answer those questions with much more confidence now than we could when he was drafted. Who's going to catch in 2017 and beyond? When the Twins acquired John Ryan Murphy, they did so with the mindset that he could serve in a part-time role this year and establish himself as Kurt Suzuki's heir. Instead, Murphy split time in between Minnesota and Rochester, playing poorly with both. He will enter 2017 as, at best, a backup option, and the same can be said for every other in-house candidate if Suzuki leaves. Who's at short? Eduardo Escobar had shown the necessary tools to be a regular big-league shortstop, but he had yet to do it over a full season. Entering 2016 with the Opening Day job for the first time, this was Escobar's big chance to prove himself. Instead, he has started only 64 games at the position, with first Eduardo Nunez and now Jorge Polanco pushing him aside. Nunez is gone, Polanco remains a subpar defensive option, and Escobar will be coming off his worst season since 2013. The team has gone backward in its efforts to settle on a shortstop. That's a rather absurd number of unanswered vital questions for a team that has been in last place all year long with no real goal other than answering them. In some cases these outcomes were the result of bad planning or poor decision-making, but most often it was simply bad luck or players failing to take advantage of opportunities. The end result is that the Twins will be coming off one of the worst seasons in franchise history with a roster saturated in uncertainty. Click here to view the article

Except that Greinke and Miller had both done it in the majors, for multiple seasons. Berrios had a fantastic minor-league track record but was still largely an unknown.

Players "entering their peak years" barely exist in free agency. The length of Greinke's contract was not that unusual and will become even less unusual in this era of big revenue.

I just feel like you're talking about Swanson as some sort of can't-miss stud because of his lofty prospect ranking. But Miller was a former first-round pick, a product of the inimitable Cardinals system, BA's #6 overall prospect before graduating, and a guy who found consistent success through his first several years in the majors. I think everyone believed they overpaid, but that's what it takes to get a young, successful, controllable MLB starter. Basically, it looks like Dbacks ran out of patience and made hasty decisions aimed at pushing their timeline ahead. And, really, that's the cautionary tale here. But at the same time, how much more patient can the Twins afford to be?

It's very easy to look back now and see these moves were foolish. But if you really feel your team is on the brink and you want to make that big push -- the kind of big push that EVERYONE was yearning for from TR when the Twins couldn't quite get over the hump in the 2000s -- these were defensible when they were made. Greinke has been one of the better pitchers in the game for most of his career and posted a freakin 1.66 ERA last year. Shelby Miller was himself rated as a Top 10 prospect in the game before he came up and posted a 3.22 ERA in the 575 MLB innings all before the age of 25. These guys looked like bona fide front of the rotation starters. Exactly what the Twins sorely need. But the way things have played out is a reminder that nothing is guaranteed with these kinds of acquisitions. Far from it.

It was a very general comparison. Most Twins fans would like the team to restructure the front office from outside. Most would like the new front office to be aggressive and creative in addressing the rotation. Many (perhaps not you) would like to see the team finally take a plunge on a true top FA starter. Definitely seems like you're nitpicking, especially when you're calling Greinke simply a "32-year-old" without acknowledging that he led baseball in ERA last year, or calling Shelby Miller a "mid-rotation starter" in hindsight. I'm sorry but these are just very slanted comments. That's just it. This thing probably ain't going to magically fix itself. The Twins can't sit back and hope that their iffy pitching prospects eventually come up and turn around the staff or they're likely to remain in perpetual limbo.

In efforts to build a championship-caliber club, the Arizona Diamondbacks took just about every step that many Twins fans would like to see from their own hometown team. It, uh... hasn't worked out.In 2014, Arizona hired a baseball legend in Tony La Russa to oversee their baseball ops department as chief officer. Creating this position, rather than simply hiring a new general manager, is the same route that Minnesota reportedly plans to take. Later that year, La Russa hired Dave Stewart to become the new D-backs GM. Stewart was an against-the-grain hiring with no meaningful previous connections to the franchise. As a former All-Star hurler who went on to work as a pitching coach (among other things) following his retirement, Stewart looked like a fine choice to overhaul the roster and rebuild the pitching staff. The Diamondbacks went 79-83 in 2015, their first year under the Stewart/La Russa regime. Their high-powered offense ranked second in the NL in scoring but was held back by a sub-par rotation, so Arizona decided to go all-in on pitching during the offseason. And I mean all-in. In December, the D-backs stunned the baseball world by signing free agent Zack Greinke to a massive contract approaching $200 million in total value. The very next day, they pulled the trigger on a blockbuster trade, acquiring 25-year-old Shelby Miller in exchange for a gaudy prospect package headlined by last June's No. 1 overall draft pick Dansby Swanson. In theory, Arizona had just picked up two starting pitchers to slot at the very top of their rotation, expending massive resources in order to do so. And the results? Well, you're probably aware. Greinke owns a 4.54 ERA, which would be his worst since 2005 if it sticks, and Miller has gone 2-10 with a 6.81 ERA in 15 starts sandwiching a two-month demotion to Triple-A. Despite enlisting a brand new front office structure, despite drafting arms heavily for years (seven of Arizona's last eight first-round selections prior to Swanson were pitchers), and despite making perhaps the most aggressive series of moves to acquire high-end pitching ever... the Diamondbacks find themselves in fourth place. They've somehow allowed as many runs as the Twins. Local fans can surely see some staggered parallels between the two franchises. Obviously the Twins aren't going to enter the offseason with a mindset that they're a couple arms away from being a World Series contender, but their need to upgrade the rotation is equally urgent if not more so. Arizona's postseason drought does not extend as far Minnesota's, nor does their record of consistently terrible pitching results. While the Twins' new head of baseball ops will not come in facing the kind of win-now directive that La Russa evidently felt, there will be pressure to orchestrate a big move or two and give fans some reason to believe that a vastly better product is in store for 2017. But as the D-backs and their new front office have illustrated, big moves aren't always a good thing. What's important is making the right moves. The Twins, under Terry Ryan, didn't do that often enough to dig out of their lengthy era of horrendous play. Here's hoping the new crew can do it, and that they can look ahead to better outcomes than the embattled bunch down in the desert. Click here to view the article

Stunningly severe struggles from the pitching staff, a surprising Arizona Fall League assignment, and a great September call-up story. We'll touch on all three trending Twins topics in the latest Three-Bagger.* The big story of the last month should be a lineup that continues to flex its muscles. The story should be a mind-boggling hitting clinic from Brian Dozier, and the electric return of Byron Buxton, and Trevor Plouffe reviving his season, and Miguel Sano closing in on 25 homers, and Max Kepler clamping down right field. All of those threads tie to an emerging offense that has crossed the plate 42 times through the first five contests of the current homestand, and is averaging nearly five runs per game since the All-Star break. That should be the story for a last place team that should be on an upward trajectory. Instead, the story is that in spite of all that prolific scoring – and in spite of Dozier putting forth one of the most incredible stretches of self-manufactured offense in recent history – the Twins have still managed to drop 21 of their last 26 games. Minnesota's miserable pitching staff has effectively sapped any enthusiasm these hitters have attempted to generate. Dozier can hit three bombs in a game, and the Twins still lose. Buxton can lift the club with a dramatic grand slam and they still ultimately fall short. The Twins are on track to surpass 750 runs scored for the first time since 2010, and they're going to lose 100 games. That's because they are also on track to allow more than 900 runs, which has never happened in Twins history. This staff, designed with postseason aspirations, has been hit with a few key injuries (Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins most notably) but nothing that should've been totally unforeseen. It's almost incomprehensible that they are on pace give up more runs than any of those porous units from the steroid era in the late '90s. Obviously, they need some help. * The best hope for providing that help, internally, is Stephen Gonsalves. He wrapped up a dazzling season last week, finishing with a 2.06 ERA and 1.02 WHIP between Ft. Myers and Chattanooga. The Twins announced on Monday that Gonsalves will be heading to the Arizona Fall League, joining the six who were already named (Nick Gordon, Mitch Garver, Tanner English, Randy Rosario, Mason Melotakis and John Curtiss). The decision to add Gonsalves is interesting, because it suggests the organization would like him to get a few more innings under his belt before settling down for the offseason. The lefty set a career high by logging 140 frames this year but it wasn't a huge step forward from last year's 134. Adding a few more in the fall league could put his arm in position to approach 200 next summer. * With rosters expanding over for the final month, the Twins tabbed three players from the minors as September call-ups. Two of them will face considerable pressure. Tyler Duffey is trying to make his case for the 2017 rotation as he winds down a season that has been horrendous. Kennys Vargas is trying to prove his bat is worth a roster spot despite the defensive limitations that may force him out. James Beresford, though? He'll just be enjoying the ride. It's been more than a decade since the Twins signed Beresford as a teenager out of Australia. He rose gradually through the system before settling at Triple-A, never a true prospect but always a valued player. The lefty-swinging middle infielder brings a soft bat (he has slugged .330 and hit four total home runs in 1,000 minor-league games) but a steady and reliable glove. Beresford turns 28 in January. He has played 382 games at Rochester over the past three seasons without showing any real signs of improvement. Paul Molitor basically acknowledged that the promotion was largely in recognition of Beresford's lengthy service in the organization. Presumably he won't play much and will merely serve as extra infield depth. Still, it'll be fun to see him don a big-league jersey for the final month. Click here to view the article

Atlanta traded Miller (a VASTLY superior trade asset than Santana) to a pitching-needy team for a package headlined by a top position player prospect. Detroit traded Cespedes, a hitter, to an offense-needy team that was deep in pitching (this is the approach I've suggested with Dozier). The examples sort of highlight the hold-ups I have with a potential Santana deal. Where is the precedent for clubs trading impact young pitching in exchange for a good-not-great veteran starting pitcher? When the Twins traded Johan Santana, the best pitching prospect they got back was a teenager. And he didn't pan out. That case is very much worth keeping in mind as we mull this idea over. (By the way, how differently does the 2008 season, where many expected the Twins not to be competitive, turn out if the Twins keep Santana?)

In the eyes of the public, yes. I'm quite sure that trading both of them would be viewed that way. As you know I'm very supportive of trading Dozier for pitching. I just don't see how you deal Santana for any pitching that's going to help in the near future and in that case I don't see how you justify it. In the abstract Santana is certainly a tradeable asset but in a practical sense I just don't agree that it is, as you say, the right thing. Is it really that tough for you to envision a decent starting rotation next year that includes some combination of Santana, Gibson, May, Berrios, Santiago, Duffey, and whatever they get back for Dozier?

With respect, I think advocating for a blowout rebuild is the unrealistic view. You might think it's the best approach (and you might be right) but it's not going to happen. There is zero reason to think that ownership or the head execs have any desire to take this route. I can almost guarantee you that when they're interviewing candidates, they're not asking "How can you get this team contending in three years?" but rather "How are you going to get this thing back on track fast?" There are business realities at play here, and as I wrote, they likely played in to the decision to give TR the ax. They simply cannot afford to openly forfeit competitiveness next year. They're too far into this era of hideous play. They're too invested in young core players that have already entered the fold. They're losing too many fans and too much money as it is. Therefore, I write most of my content from that slant. What can the Twins do to position themselves well for the future without blatantly punting 2017? I'm not seeing a Santana trade scenario that accomplishes both.

We can all agree with that, but I've yet to be convinced that anyone is dealing those for an expensive 34-YO starter, even if he's coming off a great year. Trading Dozier to a team whose run scoring/prevention balance tips in the opposite direction is the way to get this done, IMO. This is essentially the same staff that finished in the middle of the pack last year. Gibson was a solid starter in 2015. Berrios was a top 5 pitching prospect in the game entering this season. Santana has been great. Mejia, Santiago, Duffey and others all offer reasonable potential to be decent. Saying that that "we've already given up on next year" because of the way things have played out this season seems very defeatist to me. And, I'll ask again, what happens if you blow up the pitching staff and a few guys rebound while the offense kicks ass? Missed opportunity.

On Tuesday night, the Twins suffered their 12th loss in a row, as a league-worst pitching staff continues to drag them to new depths. Lost in the wreckage is the ongoing strong work from Ervin Santana, who has been a lone bright spot in the starting corps this year.Santana's latest pitching line, from Saturday's start in Toronto, doesn't really capture how well he pitched. The righty ended up being charged with six earned runs, but three crossed the plate after he came out of the game with two outs in the seventh inning. The stats from his previous 11 outings cast no such deception regarding the quality of his performance. During that stretch, Santana posted a 1.79 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while holding opponents to a .202/.241/.285 slash line. Though it didn't end well, he battled impressively against a locked and loaded Blue Jays lineup during Saturday's start. It marked his fourth in a row pitching into the seventh or beyond. Even with the runs charged after he left inflating his numbers a bit, Santana still ranks among the top 15 American League starting pitchers in both ERA (14th, 3.54) and WHIP (12th, 1.20). By those basic result-based measures, he has been a No. 1 starter this season. To say he's been the standout in a miserable rotation doesn't really do his excellent campaign justice. It started out inauspiciously enough, but Santana's contract has thus far proven to be a rare free agent hit for the Twins. In 41 starts with the club, he has outperformed his career numbers almost across the board, gobbling up innings and providing the veteran stability that Terry Ryan sought when he inked Santana to a franchise record FA deal two winters ago. The 33-year-old hurler figures to be an interesting factor in the organization's offseason planning. On the one hand, his trade value is undoubtedly as high as it will ever be and the Twins – descending toward one of the worst finishes in team history – may be facing a complete overhaul of the pitching staff. On the other hand, swapping him for prospects would signal pretty clearly that they don't expect to be competitive in 2017. Are they really willing to do that with an already tenuous hold on fan interest, which according to some was the driving force behind Ryan's dismissal? In my opinion, the Twins need to make a reasonable effort at repairing their broken pitching unit on the fly in efforts to bounce back strong next year. The only way they can really do that while trading Santana is if the return includes young impact arms that are big-league ready or close. But is that even realistic? What team is needy enough for pitching that they'd deal for Santana, but at the same time has good controllable young starters they're willing to give up? Perhaps a contender that is eyeing an all-in push for 2017, but it seems unlikely. Even if you don't expect Santana to keep up at this rate forever, it's still hard to envision a deal that helps the Twins more than it hurts them in the short-term. Unless they're willing to blow the whole thing up and surrender the next couple years, there probably isn't going to be an offer out there that makes sense. At least, that's my take. What would your approach be with Santana this offseason? Build around him, or ship him out and rebuild from the ground up? Click here to view the article

What do you base that on? This team's infallible ability to identify and properly utilize relief talent?

I didn't say the Twins were clearly responsible for any lack of effectiveness. I said they didn't put him in position to succeed and I stand by that. They haven't used him in the way that he found immense success in Triple-A for several years in a row. They have him out here throwing 50 pitches in an outing, something he hasn't done in many years. This is part of a larger trend.

Remember when the Twins gave a combined 124 relief appearances to Tim Stauffer, J.R. Graham, Matt Guerrier and Anthony Swarzak over the last two years? And we've got people talking about how Tonkin proved his worthlessness by failing to flat-out dominate in his limited opportunities. Unreal.