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  1. This was a long, tough season. You all deserve a treat for hanging on and maintaining enough interest in this 100-loss campaign to keep the conversations flowing at Twins Daily. In that spirit, we have some exciting news.As usual, we will be releasing our annual Minnesota Twins Offseason Handbook shortly after the conclusion of the World Series. We have been selling this ebook as a premium content piece every year dating back to 2009. Laying out the offseason landscape from a uniquely Twins-centric angle, the Handbook is always very popular among hardcore and casual fans alike. There is no better way to prep yourself for Hot Stove Season. This year, however, we'll be doing it a little bit differently. When the Offseason Handbook goes live next week, you will have the opportunity to buy it and immediately download it. But unlike past years, there will be no specific price point for this new edition. Instead, the 2017 Offseason Handbook will be available on a 'name-your-price' basis. You can pay whatever you want, and that includes zero dollars. Yep, for the first time, this year's Handbook will be freely available to anyone who wants it. If you're inclined to contribute to the site as a token of thanks for the hard work put into this product, as well as our year-round coverage, that will be greatly appreciated. We are steadfastly trying to grow this destination for baseball fans into something bigger and better. However, Twins Daily was founded on the notion of providing excellent content to passionate readers at no cost. We didn't want any barriers stopping anyone from accessing this thing. That's especially true now, because we'll be integrating this year's Handbook into our offseason coverage more than ever before. Dynamic content, along with new site features, will tie to the ebook's overarching structure, with a goal of giving you all the resources and info needed to expertly follow the first offseason under Derek Falvey, Thad Levine and a new regime. We can't wait to get the 2017 Twins Daily Offseason Handbook in front of all our readers. It may drop as soon as Monday, so keep your eyes peeled! Click here to view the article
  2. As usual, we will be releasing our annual Minnesota Twins Offseason Handbook shortly after the conclusion of the World Series. We have been selling this ebook as a premium content piece every year dating back to 2009. Laying out the offseason landscape from a uniquely Twins-centric angle, the Handbook is always very popular among hardcore and casual fans alike. There is no better way to prep yourself for Hot Stove Season. This year, however, we'll be doing it a little bit differently. When the Offseason Handbook goes live next week, you will have the opportunity to buy it and immediately download it. But unlike past years, there will be no specific price point for this new edition. Instead, the 2017 Offseason Handbook will be available on a 'name-your-price' basis. You can pay whatever you want, and that includes zero dollars. Yep, for the first time, this year's Handbook will be freely available to anyone who wants it. If you're inclined to contribute to the site as a token of thanks for the hard work put into this product, as well as our year-round coverage, that will be greatly appreciated. We are steadfastly trying to grow this destination for baseball fans into something bigger and better. However, Twins Daily was founded on the notion of providing excellent content to passionate readers at no cost. We didn't want any barriers stopping anyone from accessing this thing. That's especially true now, because we'll be integrating this year's Handbook into our offseason coverage more than ever before. Dynamic content, along with new site features, will tie to the ebook's overarching structure, with a goal of giving you all the resources and info needed to expertly follow the first offseason under Derek Falvey, Thad Levine and a new regime. We can't wait to get the 2017 Twins Daily Offseason Handbook in front of all our readers. It may drop as soon as Monday, so keep your eyes peeled!
  3. Worth noting: The Astros were looking at Levine for their GM opening 5 years ago before they ended up hiring Jeff Luhnow. http://www.espn.com/dallas/mlb/story/_/id/7300461/texas-rangers-thad-levine-opts-stay-club
  4. As mentioned in the article, Light is a guy whose control concerns are far more severe than Chargois. He averaged 5.7 BB/9 at AAA. It wasn't an isolated nerves thing.
  5. During his first taste of the big leagues this year, JT Chargois averaged 96.6 MPH with his fastball, according to PitchFX. The number of qualified MLB relievers with a higher mark? Thirteen. What can we learn from looking at the rest of the game's hardest-throwing hurlers?Here's what the list of hottest MLB heaters among relief pitchers in 2016 looked like: 1. Aroldis Chapman (100.4) 2. Arquimedes Caminero (97.9) 3. Dellin Betances (97.7) 4. Craig Kimbrel (97.3) 5. Carlos Esteves (97.3) 6. Edwin Diaz (97.3) 7. Ken Giles (97.2) 8. Kelvin Herrera (97.1) 9. Matt Bush (97.0) 10. Nate Jones (96.8) 11. Hunter Strickland (96.8) 12. Matt Barnes (96.7) 13. Pedro Baez (96.7) Among these 13, four were closers by the end of the year, and rather dominant ones at that. Chapman, Betances, Kimbrel and Giles each averaged at least 14 strikeouts per nine innings, which is really something. Among the other nine, only three finished with anything less than a sterling ERA: Caminero (3.63), Barnes (4.05) and Estevez (5.24). We can differentiate these three from Chargois pretty easily, in that they don't have the backgrounds as outstanding college closers nor the spectacular minor league track records. But all of their 2016 seasons did share a common trait, and one that is relevant with regards to Minnesota's rookie fireballer: they all struggled with control. Caminero, Barnes and Esteves all averaged at least four walks per nine innings, and that's a rate that makes it tough to succeed. Of course, Chargois put up a 4.7 BB/9 rate this year, so it isn't too surprising he ended up with a lackluster 4.70 ERA. But unlike so many of the hard throwers that have come through the Twins system in recent years as the club has increased its focus on bullpen velocity – from Jim Hoey to Alex Meyer to Pat Light and beyond – there isn't a ton of reason to believe Chargois will be haunted by control issues long-term. In 39 appearances this year with Chattanooga and Rochester prior to his call-up, the big righty handed out only 13 free passes over 47 innings. His walk problem in the majors seemed mostly related to nerves; Chargois issued six walks over his first six MLB appearances, then only six more in 19 appearances the rest of the way. In his last 12 games of the season he posted a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio while throwing a significantly higher percentage of strikes. Unsurprisingly, Chargois was also lights-out during that final stretch, allowing only one run on six hits over 10 innings. His strong finish is the single biggest spark of hope for the Twins bullpen heading into 2017. Obviously this unit needs to improve drastically in order for the team to be competitive. Chargois dominating at the back end for an entire season would play a big part in fueling a major turnaround for the relief corps. He also serves as a key insurance policy in the ninth with the status of Glen Perkins in flux. For a Twins pitching staff that two years ago had only one single fastball register at 97 MPH or above, Chargois is a revelation. As long as he can stay healthy and keep the ball in the zone, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that he will be a devastating weapon in the late innings. Click here to view the article
  6. Here's what the list of hottest MLB heaters among relief pitchers in 2016 looked like: 1. Aroldis Chapman (100.4) 2. Arquimedes Caminero (97.9) 3. Dellin Betances (97.7) 4. Craig Kimbrel (97.3) 5. Carlos Esteves (97.3) 6. Edwin Diaz (97.3) 7. Ken Giles (97.2) 8. Kelvin Herrera (97.1) 9. Matt Bush (97.0) 10. Nate Jones (96.8) 11. Hunter Strickland (96.8) 12. Matt Barnes (96.7) 13. Pedro Baez (96.7) Among these 13, four were closers by the end of the year, and rather dominant ones at that. Chapman, Betances, Kimbrel and Giles each averaged at least 14 strikeouts per nine innings, which is really something. Among the other nine, only three finished with anything less than a sterling ERA: Caminero (3.63), Barnes (4.05) and Estevez (5.24). We can differentiate these three from Chargois pretty easily, in that they don't have the backgrounds as outstanding college closers nor the spectacular minor league track records. But all of their 2016 seasons did share a common trait, and one that is relevant with regards to Minnesota's rookie fireballer: they all struggled with control. Caminero, Barnes and Esteves all averaged at least four walks per nine innings, and that's a rate that makes it tough to succeed. Of course, Chargois put up a 4.7 BB/9 rate this year, so it isn't too surprising he ended up with a lackluster 4.70 ERA. But unlike so many of the hard throwers that have come through the Twins system in recent years as the club has increased its focus on bullpen velocity – from Jim Hoey to Alex Meyer to Pat Light and beyond – there isn't a ton of reason to believe Chargois will be haunted by control issues long-term. In 39 appearances this year with Chattanooga and Rochester prior to his call-up, the big righty handed out only 13 free passes over 47 innings. His walk problem in the majors seemed mostly related to nerves; Chargois issued six walks over his first six MLB appearances, then only six more in 19 appearances the rest of the way. In his last 12 games of the season he posted a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio while throwing a significantly higher percentage of strikes. Unsurprisingly, Chargois was also lights-out during that final stretch, allowing only one run on six hits over 10 innings. His strong finish is the single biggest spark of hope for the Twins bullpen heading into 2017. Obviously this unit needs to improve drastically in order for the team to be competitive. Chargois dominating at the back end for an entire season would play a big part in fueling a major turnaround for the relief corps. He also serves as a key insurance policy in the ninth with the status of Glen Perkins in flux. For a Twins pitching staff that two years ago had only one single fastball register at 97 MPH or above, Chargois is a revelation. As long as he can stay healthy and keep the ball in the zone, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that he will be a devastating weapon in the late innings.
  7. The Minnesota Twins sent several players down south to play for the Surprise Saguaros in the Arizona Fall League. Among them are two fast-rising talents that are arguably the top prospects in the organization, and unquestionably two of the most critical. Nick Gordon and Stephen Gonsalves have both looked good, building on strong 2016 campaigns in the minors.It's unclear what the Twins are going to do at shortstop in the short term, but Gordon is widely viewed as the team's future at the position. Questions have emerged in some corners about his ability to stick permanently at the infield's toughest spot, although ESPN.com prospect wonk Keith Law dismissed such talk as "ridiculous." The former fifth overall draft pick has certainly been making strides toward erasing any questions surrounding his bat. This year at High-A Fort Myers he slashed .291/.335/.386 with 32 extra-base hits and 19 steals. His .721 OPS was nearly 50 points higher than the league average and he was the league's second-youngest starting shortstop. Gordon, who turns 21 on Monday (cheers!), has carried his upward momentum to the desert. Through six games he has gone 9-for-24 (.375) while drawing four walks and swiping a pair of bags. The lefty swinger has proven adept enough at making contact and spraying line drives all over the field that he has established a reasonably high offensive floor. His ceiling will be dependent on the development of his power. A wiry and quick specimen, Gordon is listed at just 160 lbs despite standing six feet tall. His weight is a bit higher now, and his body is a stage where muscle and strength tend to gain fast. He hit only three home runs with the Miracle this year but that's one more than he totaled in his first two pro seasons combined. Just one of the shortstop's nine hits in the AFL has gone for extra bases (a double), but there is plenty of reason for optimism that he'll continue to progress with his pop and overall game. Gonsalves has only made one appearance thus far with the Saguaros. He started on October 13th and tossed three innings. He gave up one run on a solo homer but attacked the zone, throwing 24 of 34 pitches for strikes. Josh Norris of Baseball America, who was in attendance, dubbed the lefty's performance "excellent." Gonsalves didn't appear in BA's midseason Top 100 but he'll certainly be present in the 2017 rankings following a dominant late-season run at Double-A. I'll be curious to see how high he can climb. He hasn't pitched in 10 days due to a mild back strain. A cautious approach is being taken with the 22-year-old southpaw, and for good reason. His 140 innings in the regular season were already a career high. The AFL schedule runs through mid-November so he has plenty of time to get more work in. Right now, Twins news is mostly at a standstill as the team awaits its new baseball ops leader. The franchise has been in a holding pattern while Derek Falvey's Cleveland Indians have steamrolled their way to the big dance. But the long baseball season is reaching its conclusion. The World Series could wrap up in less than a week. At that point, the offseason will really get going. With Gordon and Gonsalves capping off very encouraging seasons on positive notes, the Twins will step into winter on the right foot. Click here to view the article
  8. It's unclear what the Twins are going to do at shortstop in the short term, but Gordon is widely viewed as the team's future at the position. Questions have emerged in some corners about his ability to stick permanently at the infield's toughest spot, although ESPN.com prospect wonk Keith Law dismissed such talk as "ridiculous." The former fifth overall draft pick has certainly been making strides toward erasing any questions surrounding his bat. This year at High-A Fort Myers he slashed .291/.335/.386 with 32 extra-base hits and 19 steals. His .721 OPS was nearly 50 points higher than the league average and he was the league's second-youngest starting shortstop. Gordon, who turns 21 on Monday (cheers!), has carried his upward momentum to the desert. Through six games he has gone 9-for-24 (.375) while drawing four walks and swiping a pair of bags. The lefty swinger has proven adept enough at making contact and spraying line drives all over the field that he has established a reasonably high offensive floor. His ceiling will be dependent on the development of his power. A wiry and quick specimen, Gordon is listed at just 160 lbs despite standing six feet tall. His weight is a bit higher now, and his body is a stage where muscle and strength tend to gain fast. He hit only three home runs with the Miracle this year but that's one more than he totaled in his first two pro seasons combined. Just one of the shortstop's nine hits in the AFL has gone for extra bases (a double), but there is plenty of reason for optimism that he'll continue to progress with his pop and overall game. Gonsalves has only made one appearance thus far with the Saguaros. He started on October 13th and tossed three innings. He gave up one run on a solo homer but attacked the zone, throwing 24 of 34 pitches for strikes. Josh Norris of Baseball America, who was in attendance, dubbed the lefty's performance "excellent." Gonsalves didn't appear in BA's midseason Top 100 but he'll certainly be present in the 2017 rankings following a dominant late-season run at Double-A. I'll be curious to see how high he can climb. He hasn't pitched in 10 days due to a mild back strain. A cautious approach is being taken with the 22-year-old southpaw, and for good reason. His 140 innings in the regular season were already a career high. The AFL schedule runs through mid-November so he has plenty of time to get more work in. Right now, Twins news is mostly at a standstill as the team awaits its new baseball ops leader. The franchise has been in a holding pattern while Derek Falvey's Cleveland Indians have steamrolled their way to the big dance. But the long baseball season is reaching its conclusion. The World Series could wrap up in less than a week. At that point, the offseason will really get going. With Gordon and Gonsalves capping off very encouraging seasons on positive notes, the Twins will step into winter on the right foot.
  9. Fair point (although as mentioned above, that was Bill Smith, not TR). I was thinking more of the Rondell White/Craig Monroe years, and when the best Twins team of the entire run (2006) started Phil Nevin and Jason Tyner at DH in the playoffs.
  10. Derek Falvey is no doubt eager to begin his tenure as Chief Baseball Officer of the Minnesota Twins. There's just one hold-up: the Cleveland Indians team he helped build is chugging toward an improbable World Series berth. There are worse excuses for being late to the job.Cleveland's deep run into the postseason – despite an avalanche of ill-timed key injuries – does nothing but reinforce the decision to hire Falvey. This is an extremely well constructed ballclub, which breezed to an AL Central crown with 94 wins before sweeping the Red Sox out of the ALDS and jumping out to a 3-1 lead over Toronto in the ALCS. Falvey of course doesn't deserve full credit for shaping this championship-caliber roster, but since being named director of baseball operations with the Indians in 2012, player acquisition has been one of his primary focuses. In the prior years he held lesser positions with varying levels of input, and he surely helped influence many of the organization's decisions dating back to his start in 2007. So I thought it would be interesting to take a look at how Cleveland came upon the players that have formed the foundation of its impressive title run. Corey Kluber: When the Indians acquired Kluber in a three-way trade at the 2010 deadline, he was a 24-year-old in Double-A with a history of control problems. Cleveland gave up very little to get him. We all know where it went from there. Francisco Lindor: He was a high first-round pick that the team nailed. Cleveland took the Puerto Rican shortstop eighth overall in 2011, and he ascended quickly to his present status as a big-league star. Carlos Carrasco: The team's No. 2 starter came over from Philadelphia in the Cliff Lee blockbuster of July 2009. He's the kind of hit that the Twins failed to get when they traded Johan Santana. Carrasco is out for the year after a line drive broke his hand in September, but he was a big part of the club's success this season. Andrew Miller: This is one of my favorites, and representative of a mindset that I hope the Twins inherit. The Indians traded a big prospect haul to acquire Miller, but not because they wanted an upgrade in the ninth. Cleveland has used the outrageously dominant reliever as a bullpen horse, deploying him strategically to work multiple innings and demoralize opponents late in games. His performance in these playoffs may end up being the most impactful of any relief arm in postseason history. Cody Allen: Of course, it's nice when you have a lights-out guy like Allen in the ninth that enables you to utilize Miller as a flexible weapon. Allen was a 23rd-round draft pick in 2011 that Cleveland simply hit the jackpot with. He has been a fantastic closer for three straight years. Danny Salazar: He was an international signing out of the Dominican Republic back in 2006, one year before Falvey joined the organization as an intern. While the new Minnesota CBO didn't play a part in finding Salazar as a teenager, the right-hander did develop into a quality big-league starter during his time in the front office. Like Carrasco, Salazar has been unavailable to the Indians in the postseason. Mike Napoli: He's the kind of player Terry Ryan could never seem to find during that decade where Minnesota couldn't quite get over the hump. The Indians needed a big right-handed power bat so they signed Napoli to a one-year, $7 million deal. The veteran slugger delivered with 34 home runs and 101 RBI. Carlos Santana: Another excellent find from another organization's system. The Indians acquired Santana in exchange for Casey Blake at the 2008 deadline. Yes, that Casey Blake. Santana was a rising talent in the Dodgers system but rose to elite prospect status after the joining the Indians. He became a quality catcher in the majors before concussions forced him into a 1B/DH role... sound familiar? But unlike Joe Mauer, Santana remains an outstanding offensive asset. Falvey was merely an assistant in Cleveland's scouting department at the time of this trade but he learned the ropes under Mark Shapiro, the two-time Executive of the Year who pulled it off. Trevor Bauer: The Indians traded for Bauer, a former third overall pick and top-rated pitching prospect, right after Falvey assumed his role as director of baseball ops. Bauer came over as part of a sprawling three-team swap. At the time Bauer was a highly touted young hurler with questions surrounding his control. He hasn't fulfilled his promise as a top-tier big-league starter yet, but he has improved his command and at 25 still holds plenty of upside – as long as he takes it easy with the drones. Tyler Naquin: The surprise rookie performance of 2016. Naquin was a rather ordinary prospect before breaking through with an .886 OPS in his first MLB campaign. Now he looks like another first-round pick (2012) that paid off for Cleveland. Jason Kipnis: The two-time All-Star second baseman was selected by the Indians in the second round of the 2009 draft. Michael Brantley: Setbacks in his recovery from 2015 shoulder surgery kept Brantley off the field for almost the entirety of this season. This makes Cleveland's success all the more astounding given that the outfielder is arguably their best position player. Brantley is another example of the Indians getting strong value back when trading a superstar. He came over from Milwaukee in the 2008 CC Sabathia deal. Another fine stroke from Shapiro, who is incidentally now CEO of the Blue Jays team that Cleveland is on the verge of ousting. CONCLUSIONS During Falvey's time in Cleveland's front office, the team has acquired star-caliber talent through almost every avenue: free agency, trades, draft, international market. Hopefully his involvement with these moves – or at least his exposure to the process behind them while working under some highly effective execs – will enable him to bring an edge over to a Twins franchise that has failed to produce nearly the same fruitful results in its player acquisition efforts. Click here to view the article
  11. Cleveland's deep run into the postseason – despite an avalanche of ill-timed key injuries – does nothing but reinforce the decision to hire Falvey. This is an extremely well constructed ballclub, which breezed to an AL Central crown with 94 wins before sweeping the Red Sox out of the ALDS and jumping out to a 3-1 lead over Toronto in the ALCS. Falvey of course doesn't deserve full credit for shaping this championship-caliber roster, but since being named director of baseball operations with the Indians in 2012, player acquisition has been one of his primary focuses. In the prior years he held lesser positions with varying levels of input, and he surely helped influence many of the organization's decisions dating back to his start in 2007. So I thought it would be interesting to take a look at how Cleveland came upon the players that have formed the foundation of its impressive title run. Corey Kluber: When the Indians acquired Kluber in a three-way trade at the 2010 deadline, he was a 24-year-old in Double-A with a history of control problems. Cleveland gave up very little to get him. We all know where it went from there. Francisco Lindor: He was a high first-round pick that the team nailed. Cleveland took the Puerto Rican shortstop eighth overall in 2011, and he ascended quickly to his present status as a big-league star. Carlos Carrasco: The team's No. 2 starter came over from Philadelphia in the Cliff Lee blockbuster of July 2009. He's the kind of hit that the Twins failed to get when they traded Johan Santana. Carrasco is out for the year after a line drive broke his hand in September, but he was a big part of the club's success this season. Andrew Miller: This is one of my favorites, and representative of a mindset that I hope the Twins inherit. The Indians traded a big prospect haul to acquire Miller, but not because they wanted an upgrade in the ninth. Cleveland has used the outrageously dominant reliever as a bullpen horse, deploying him strategically to work multiple innings and demoralize opponents late in games. His performance in these playoffs may end up being the most impactful of any relief arm in postseason history. Cody Allen: Of course, it's nice when you have a lights-out guy like Allen in the ninth that enables you to utilize Miller as a flexible weapon. Allen was a 23rd-round draft pick in 2011 that Cleveland simply hit the jackpot with. He has been a fantastic closer for three straight years. Danny Salazar: He was an international signing out of the Dominican Republic back in 2006, one year before Falvey joined the organization as an intern. While the new Minnesota CBO didn't play a part in finding Salazar as a teenager, the right-hander did develop into a quality big-league starter during his time in the front office. Like Carrasco, Salazar has been unavailable to the Indians in the postseason. Mike Napoli: He's the kind of player Terry Ryan could never seem to find during that decade where Minnesota couldn't quite get over the hump. The Indians needed a big right-handed power bat so they signed Napoli to a one-year, $7 million deal. The veteran slugger delivered with 34 home runs and 101 RBI. Carlos Santana: Another excellent find from another organization's system. The Indians acquired Santana in exchange for Casey Blake at the 2008 deadline. Yes, that Casey Blake. Santana was a rising talent in the Dodgers system but rose to elite prospect status after the joining the Indians. He became a quality catcher in the majors before concussions forced him into a 1B/DH role... sound familiar? But unlike Joe Mauer, Santana remains an outstanding offensive asset. Falvey was merely an assistant in Cleveland's scouting department at the time of this trade but he learned the ropes under Mark Shapiro, the two-time Executive of the Year who pulled it off. Trevor Bauer: The Indians traded for Bauer, a former third overall pick and top-rated pitching prospect, right after Falvey assumed his role as director of baseball ops. Bauer came over as part of a sprawling three-team swap. At the time Bauer was a highly touted young hurler with questions surrounding his control. He hasn't fulfilled his promise as a top-tier big-league starter yet, but he has improved his command and at 25 still holds plenty of upside – as long as he takes it easy with the drones. Tyler Naquin: The surprise rookie performance of 2016. Naquin was a rather ordinary prospect before breaking through with an .886 OPS in his first MLB campaign. Now he looks like another first-round pick (2012) that paid off for Cleveland. Jason Kipnis: The two-time All-Star second baseman was selected by the Indians in the second round of the 2009 draft. Michael Brantley: Setbacks in his recovery from 2015 shoulder surgery kept Brantley off the field for almost the entirety of this season. This makes Cleveland's success all the more astounding given that the outfielder is arguably their best position player. Brantley is another example of the Indians getting strong value back when trading a superstar. He came over from Milwaukee in the 2008 CC Sabathia deal. Another fine stroke from Shapiro, who is incidentally now CEO of the Blue Jays team that Cleveland is on the verge of ousting. CONCLUSIONS During Falvey's time in Cleveland's front office, the team has acquired star-caliber talent through almost every avenue: free agency, trades, draft, international market. Hopefully his involvement with these moves – or at least his exposure to the process behind them while working under some highly effective execs – will enable him to bring an edge over to a Twins franchise that has failed to produce nearly the same fruitful results in its player acquisition efforts.
  12. Obviously, building leads to protect is the foremost concern for this club, as acknowledged in the first sentence of the post. But that doesn't mean they should be "not worrying" about other blatant holes on the roster.
  13. Exactly. Relievers value the opportunity to compile saves and build up their value. You find a guy like Feliz who probably wouldn't have the opportunity to close elsewhere, and lure him in with money plus the ninth inning job. Then, if he has a big first half, you could either lock him up or deal him to a contender in July for quality prospects. The upside greatly outweighs the downside.
  14. True, his performance this year was essentially the same as what he did 2012-2014 with the Brewers. I guess the point is more that I don't trust someone as hittable as him in that kind of role, and don't think having him there is useful in terms of big-picture evaluations. I'm certainly fine with bringing him back as a middle relief guy.
  15. When you're coming off a 100-loss season, the foremost concern is, flatly, finding ways to get more victories, as opposed to identifying someone who can close them out. Still, the Twins need to figure out what they're going to do about the ninth inning in 2017.They have a three-time All-Star closer on their staff, but unfortunately they can't count on him. Glen Perkins is coming back from a daunting surgery to reattach his shoulder labrum, and if he returns anywhere close to his previous level of effectiveness, he'll be beating the odds. In the latest update on the 33-year-old's recovery via Mike Beradino of the Pioneer Press, the only word was that Perkins is "making progress" several months after his operation. It still doesn't sound like he's throwing. Paul Molitor was measured in his assessment: “We all know the odds and the numbers on those surgeries for people, and we’re just hoping for the best,” Molitor said. “I think they’ve been relatively pleased with the recovery from the surgery and the injury.” Of course, "hoping for the best" is not where you want to be with the most traditionally important spot in the bullpen. The Twins need contingencies. In fact, they need more than that. Even if his rehab goes smoothly and he looks strong and healthy heading into spring training, the Twins should have someone else lined up for the ninth so that they can ease him back in. Evaluate Perk's post-surgery effectiveness during the early months, and assign him accordingly. (I will add here that even if Perkins is somehow able to return to his peak dominance, I still would prefer not to return him to the closer role, in a strict sense. This postseason has only reinforced the way such a limiting usage pattern provides a competitive disadvantage. The Orioles fell out early because they were too fixated on using Zach Britton in a save opportunity. Meanwhile, the Indians have thrived while utilizing Andrew Miller as a true flexible bullpen ace.) Even with my stated feelings on the above, I can't deny the importance of having a closer in place. And without question, the Twins also recognize it. They may evolve under new leadership in the front office, but they're not going to suddenly become a team that eschews the mainstream and puts no effort into designating a reliable and experienced ninth-inning guy. Perhaps that guy is already on the roster. The first big test – and barometer – for Derek Falvey and his new general manager will be an earnest evaluation of Brandon Kintzler. The veteran right-hander was a classic Terry Ryan relief reclamation story, turning from minor league free agent signing into bullpen staple. Kintzler was more than adequate while filling in as closer in the second half. He threw strikes, induced lots of grounders and kept the ball in the yard. In all, he converted 17 of 20 save chances, and that sounds just fine. But let's not forget that Kintzler was replacing Kevin Jepsen, whom the Twins had no choice but to drop after he performed dreadfully for three months. They made the mistake of putting too much faith in Jepsen based on his short run of success in the previous second half. Are they going to do the same with Kintzler, who was considerably less impressive? This is a good opportunity for the restructured front office to differentiate itself by being proactive rather than reactive. Head into next season with a plan that offers concrete long-term upside. There are plenty of ways to do so. One way would be installing J.T. Chargois in the role. He was a closer in college, and in the minors. After shaking off some initial rookie struggles, he looked the part of a shutdown late-inning arm down the stretch with Minnesota. At this point in time, he undoubtedly profiles as the heir apparent behind Perkins. But this feels like skipping a step. Chargois still only has 25 major-league appearances. Throwing him into the fire so quickly could prove detrimental. Why not take it a bit slower and let him work his way up? This would be a more characteristic Twins approach. Another idea, and one that I don't expect to happen, would be giving Michael Tonkin a shot. He's coming off a rough campaign and is out of options. The Twins need to figure out what they have in him. They may already feel they know, following a 5.02 ERA during his first full year in an MLB bullpen, but that work came in an unfamiliar long relief role. Tonkin was at his best when he was a Triple-A closer. Why not give him the reins – even with a short leash – then see how his body and confidence respond? Look, I know many are unimpressed with what they've seen from Tonkin. But his minor-league numbers, and his ability to throw the ball past big-league hitters, are rare finds within a Minnesota bullpen. The team is much better served showing patience with a hurler like him than feeding innings to guys like Kintzler and Jepsen. However, I do understand that players like Chargois and Tonkin fall short in one important category: experience. Neither has any, as a closer, in the major leagues. One might argue this doesn't matter too much given the level of expectation this team will have next year, but if Molitor is focused on winning a whole lot more games, he will probably want an option that makes him a little more comfortable at the end. There is a path to both experience AND long-term upside in the role. It only requires that the Twins take an aggressive tack with some free agents that may carry significant risk. The relief market offers a few excellent buy-low chances, which should particularly appeal to a Minnesota team that can afford to take some gambles. Neftali Feliz is one such candidate. Back in 2010, the righty won Rookie of the Year while saving 40 games for the Rangers, and he added 32 more the following season. Then, Texas tried shifting him to the rotation, and he got hurt and underwent Tommy John surgery. His frequent trips to the disabled list led to a lukewarm free agent market last winter before he signed with Pittsburgh on a one-year, $3.9 million deal. Feliz looked good as a setup man with Pittsburgh. His fastball velocity was as high as it's been since 2011, and he averaged 10.2 K/9 while holding opponents to a .207 average. Still only 28, he presents the rare free agent combination of youth, closing experience, and an extremely high ceiling. The Twins won't be Feliz's – or any coveted player's – first choice with all things being equal, but money talks. If they want to find similar benefits but don't want to spend as much, the Twins could pursue Drew Storen. Unlike Feliz, he's not coming off a strong year, and in fact he's had a rough go of it in general lately. But he is a former 40-save closer who is younger than the typical FA at 29, and for the most part he has been an effective backend bullpen arm in his career. He has the potential to be a closer or a standout setup guy. The Twins could use either. One final free agent name to monitor: Greg Holland. He notched 125 saves with a 1.97 ERA from 2013 through 2015 with the Royals, but sat out the 2016 season following Tommy John surgery. He will be 16 months removed from that operation on Opening Day next year, so he's a relatively safe bet. Holland might be predisposed to return to Kansas City but, again, money talks. Ultimately, the point is that the Twins should be viewing their open closer job as an opportunity rather than a burden. There's no reason to spend big on a premier name like Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen, but there's really no reason to run with someone like Kintzler who will do nothing but keep the seat warm. Aim higher. What would be your preferred blueprint for addressing the ninth inning with Perkins in limbo? Click here to view the article
  16. They have a three-time All-Star closer on their staff, but unfortunately they can't count on him. Glen Perkins is coming back from a daunting surgery to reattach his shoulder labrum, and if he returns anywhere close to his previous level of effectiveness, he'll be beating the odds. In the latest update on the 33-year-old's recovery via Mike Beradino of the Pioneer Press, the only word was that Perkins is "making progress" several months after his operation. It still doesn't sound like he's throwing. Paul Molitor was measured in his assessment: “We all know the odds and the numbers on those surgeries for people, and we’re just hoping for the best,” Molitor said. “I think they’ve been relatively pleased with the recovery from the surgery and the injury.” Of course, "hoping for the best" is not where you want to be with the most traditionally important spot in the bullpen. The Twins need contingencies. In fact, they need more than that. Even if his rehab goes smoothly and he looks strong and healthy heading into spring training, the Twins should have someone else lined up for the ninth so that they can ease him back in. Evaluate Perk's post-surgery effectiveness during the early months, and assign him accordingly. (I will add here that even if Perkins is somehow able to return to his peak dominance, I still would prefer not to return him to the closer role, in a strict sense. This postseason has only reinforced the way such a limiting usage pattern provides a competitive disadvantage. The Orioles fell out early because they were too fixated on using Zach Britton in a save opportunity. Meanwhile, the Indians have thrived while utilizing Andrew Miller as a true flexible bullpen ace.) Even with my stated feelings on the above, I can't deny the importance of having a closer in place. And without question, the Twins also recognize it. They may evolve under new leadership in the front office, but they're not going to suddenly become a team that eschews the mainstream and puts no effort into designating a reliable and experienced ninth-inning guy. Perhaps that guy is already on the roster. The first big test – and barometer – for Derek Falvey and his new general manager will be an earnest evaluation of Brandon Kintzler. The veteran right-hander was a classic Terry Ryan relief reclamation story, turning from minor league free agent signing into bullpen staple. Kintzler was more than adequate while filling in as closer in the second half. He threw strikes, induced lots of grounders and kept the ball in the yard. In all, he converted 17 of 20 save chances, and that sounds just fine. But let's not forget that Kintzler was replacing Kevin Jepsen, whom the Twins had no choice but to drop after he performed dreadfully for three months. They made the mistake of putting too much faith in Jepsen based on his short run of success in the previous second half. Are they going to do the same with Kintzler, who was considerably less impressive? This is a good opportunity for the restructured front office to differentiate itself by being proactive rather than reactive. Head into next season with a plan that offers concrete long-term upside. There are plenty of ways to do so. One way would be installing J.T. Chargois in the role. He was a closer in college, and in the minors. After shaking off some initial rookie struggles, he looked the part of a shutdown late-inning arm down the stretch with Minnesota. At this point in time, he undoubtedly profiles as the heir apparent behind Perkins. But this feels like skipping a step. Chargois still only has 25 major-league appearances. Throwing him into the fire so quickly could prove detrimental. Why not take it a bit slower and let him work his way up? This would be a more characteristic Twins approach. Another idea, and one that I don't expect to happen, would be giving Michael Tonkin a shot. He's coming off a rough campaign and is out of options. The Twins need to figure out what they have in him. They may already feel they know, following a 5.02 ERA during his first full year in an MLB bullpen, but that work came in an unfamiliar long relief role. Tonkin was at his best when he was a Triple-A closer. Why not give him the reins – even with a short leash – then see how his body and confidence respond? Look, I know many are unimpressed with what they've seen from Tonkin. But his minor-league numbers, and his ability to throw the ball past big-league hitters, are rare finds within a Minnesota bullpen. The team is much better served showing patience with a hurler like him than feeding innings to guys like Kintzler and Jepsen. However, I do understand that players like Chargois and Tonkin fall short in one important category: experience. Neither has any, as a closer, in the major leagues. One might argue this doesn't matter too much given the level of expectation this team will have next year, but if Molitor is focused on winning a whole lot more games, he will probably want an option that makes him a little more comfortable at the end. There is a path to both experience AND long-term upside in the role. It only requires that the Twins take an aggressive tack with some free agents that may carry significant risk. The relief market offers a few excellent buy-low chances, which should particularly appeal to a Minnesota team that can afford to take some gambles. Neftali Feliz is one such candidate. Back in 2010, the righty won Rookie of the Year while saving 40 games for the Rangers, and he added 32 more the following season. Then, Texas tried shifting him to the rotation, and he got hurt and underwent Tommy John surgery. His frequent trips to the disabled list led to a lukewarm free agent market last winter before he signed with Pittsburgh on a one-year, $3.9 million deal. Feliz looked good as a setup man with Pittsburgh. His fastball velocity was as high as it's been since 2011, and he averaged 10.2 K/9 while holding opponents to a .207 average. Still only 28, he presents the rare free agent combination of youth, closing experience, and an extremely high ceiling. The Twins won't be Feliz's – or any coveted player's – first choice with all things being equal, but money talks. If they want to find similar benefits but don't want to spend as much, the Twins could pursue Drew Storen. Unlike Feliz, he's not coming off a strong year, and in fact he's had a rough go of it in general lately. But he is a former 40-save closer who is younger than the typical FA at 29, and for the most part he has been an effective backend bullpen arm in his career. He has the potential to be a closer or a standout setup guy. The Twins could use either. One final free agent name to monitor: Greg Holland. He notched 125 saves with a 1.97 ERA from 2013 through 2015 with the Royals, but sat out the 2016 season following Tommy John surgery. He will be 16 months removed from that operation on Opening Day next year, so he's a relatively safe bet. Holland might be predisposed to return to Kansas City but, again, money talks. Ultimately, the point is that the Twins should be viewing their open closer job as an opportunity rather than a burden. There's no reason to spend big on a premier name like Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen, but there's really no reason to run with someone like Kintzler who will do nothing but keep the seat warm. Aim higher. What would be your preferred blueprint for addressing the ninth inning with Perkins in limbo?
  17. Let me tell you, I have been researching the free agent market for the Offseason Handbook and the shortstop crop is beyond brutal. Erick Aybar is probably going to be the top name. For real. I'll take Ed Escobar.
  18. Isn't this the kind of thinking that helped lead them to their run prevention mess this year? I've seen enough, honestly. He doesn't have the arm to be an asset at the position. He can play it serviceably, but they need more than that. Pointing to Baseball America's accolades from 2 or 5-6 years ago doesn't really support a strong case. Instead of pointing to those maybe you could look at what BA said about him in their most recent profile, from last year: "He has averaged 34 errors the past two seasons since moving to shortstop, showing fairly soft hands but an average arm that strains at times to match the added burden of the position. His range is only average and his play clock gets sped up, leading to unforced errors. Quiet and intelligent with a grinder's mentality, his makeup is strong. With all-star second baseman Brian Dozier locked up through 2018, Polanco is blocked at his best projected position"
  19. As we gear up for a crucial Minnesota Twins offseason, we have talked – and will continue to talk – about pitching a great deal. But on the other side, Jorge Polanco stands out as one of the most pivotal figures in the organization's planning. Today, we'll take a look at five options for handling the talented young infielder heading into 2017.Polanco has been a longtime star in Minnesota's system. He has been among the Top 10 on Twins Daily's top prospect list each of the past three years, performing well at each level of the minors. In 2014 he became the youngest Twin to debut in the majors since Joe Mauer a decade before. And this year, in his first prolonged taste of the big leagues, he put up very strong numbers and looked every bit the part of an everyday MLB player. But the problem now, as it has been for the past few seasons, is that there's no obvious full-time opening for the 23-year-old switch-hitter. And while patience has been an affordable luxury in the past, that is no longer the case. Polanco will be out of options in 2017, meaning that the Twins will need to keep him on the roster out of spring training or lose him. That reality will weigh heavily as they lay things out for next season. As I see it, the Twins have five different routes they can take with Polanco. Let's run through the merits of each: 1. Starting Shortstop For a few reasons, this would appear to be the most likely outcome. First, because the Twins don't really have another strong candidate for the position. Eduardo Escobar is the only alternative and he had a tough year that ended on an extremely sour note (.384 OPS in September). Second, because Polanco was Paul Molitor's exclusive starter at shortstop in the final six weeks of the season. That would seem to set the stage for a full-time assignment going forward. However, there's a problem here, and it's a big one. Polanco is not a good defender at shortstop. The organization had essentially given up on playing him there in the minors before he was called up. Defensive metrics rate him very poorly at the position. Even Molitor, the manager who wrote his name in at shortstop daily in the final stretch of the campaign, would only say that Polanco "handled it fairly well" and was "not going to get an 'A' grade." The Twins need to vastly improve in terms of run prevention, and defense is a big part of that. Outside of catcher, shortstop is arguably the most important position on the field. In my opinion, rolling with a subpar glove like Polanco is simply not an option. 2. Starting Second Baseman I think everyone can agree that this is Polanco's best position. It minimizes his primary weakness (his arm) and allows his strengths to shine. It's where he spent all of his time in the Dominican Winter League last year and in Rochester this year before joining the Twins for good. Of course, he happens to be blocked at this position by Minnesota's best player. As long as Brian Dozier is on the roster, second base is off limits. I do think the possibility of a Dozier trade is reasonably strong, so Polanco could still end up here. But as things stand, it's not an option. 3. Starting Third Baseman Sort of an intriguing possibility. If the Twins want to move on from Trevor Plouffe and his expensive 2017 commitment but aren't ready to entrust Miguel Sano with the position following a very shaky defensive showing this year, Polanco could be a solution. He didn't look especially good in his nine starts at the hot corner this year, but could improve if it is his focus heading into the offseason and spring training. However, the downsides here are clear. His arm might play a little better at third than short, but still would hardly be an asset. And while his bat stands out at a middle infield spot, that's less true at an offense-driven corner position. This year, American League third basemen posted the highest OPS of any position other than DH. 4. Backup or Utility Man This idea has its appeal. In a utility role, Polanco would be able to fill in a few times per week around the diamond, and would be an excellent fallback if (when?) one of the starters fizzled or got hurt. With his ability to swing from both sides and his solid speed, he would be a handy piece of have on the bench. Yet, it feels like a bit of a waste. It's also not especially fair to the player. Polanco has shown enough during his time in the majors to justify an everyday role. He's still in a developmental stage and that could be hindered by a lack of regular playing time. 5. Trade Him I really wonder if this is what they are leaning toward. In the latter part of the season, Polanco was constantly playing shortstop and frequently batting third in the order. Does the team really view him as that caliber of player, or were they simply showcasing him for the rest of the league? Everyone knows Polanco would be fine at second, but now teams have plenty of film to evaluate and make their own judgments about his proclivity at short. The Twins know that if they want to acquire impact talent via trade, it might mean giving up some of their own coveted young players. Polanco is among the only ones among that group that could really be viewed as expendable. What it comes down to is how much the rest of the execs around the league value Polanco. It doesn't make sense to give up a young, controllable middle infielder who has proven his capabilities at the major-league level unless you're getting a significant haul in return. Given that Polanco has a well-rounded yet unspectacular skill set, I do wonder if a sufficient offer is going to come. What would be your plan for Polanco this offseason? Click here to view the article
  20. Polanco has been a longtime star in Minnesota's system. He has been among the Top 10 on Twins Daily's top prospect list each of the past three years, performing well at each level of the minors. In 2014 he became the youngest Twin to debut in the majors since Joe Mauer a decade before. And this year, in his first prolonged taste of the big leagues, he put up very strong numbers and looked every bit the part of an everyday MLB player. But the problem now, as it has been for the past few seasons, is that there's no obvious full-time opening for the 23-year-old switch-hitter. And while patience has been an affordable luxury in the past, that is no longer the case. Polanco will be out of options in 2017, meaning that the Twins will need to keep him on the roster out of spring training or lose him. That reality will weigh heavily as they lay things out for next season. As I see it, the Twins have five different routes they can take with Polanco. Let's run through the merits of each: 1. Starting Shortstop For a few reasons, this would appear to be the most likely outcome. First, because the Twins don't really have another strong candidate for the position. Eduardo Escobar is the only alternative and he had a tough year that ended on an extremely sour note (.384 OPS in September). Second, because Polanco was Paul Molitor's exclusive starter at shortstop in the final six weeks of the season. That would seem to set the stage for a full-time assignment going forward. However, there's a problem here, and it's a big one. Polanco is not a good defender at shortstop. The organization had essentially given up on playing him there in the minors before he was called up. Defensive metrics rate him very poorly at the position. Even Molitor, the manager who wrote his name in at shortstop daily in the final stretch of the campaign, would only say that Polanco "handled it fairly well" and was "not going to get an 'A' grade." The Twins need to vastly improve in terms of run prevention, and defense is a big part of that. Outside of catcher, shortstop is arguably the most important position on the field. In my opinion, rolling with a subpar glove like Polanco is simply not an option. 2. Starting Second Baseman I think everyone can agree that this is Polanco's best position. It minimizes his primary weakness (his arm) and allows his strengths to shine. It's where he spent all of his time in the Dominican Winter League last year and in Rochester this year before joining the Twins for good. Of course, he happens to be blocked at this position by Minnesota's best player. As long as Brian Dozier is on the roster, second base is off limits. I do think the possibility of a Dozier trade is reasonably strong, so Polanco could still end up here. But as things stand, it's not an option. 3. Starting Third Baseman Sort of an intriguing possibility. If the Twins want to move on from Trevor Plouffe and his expensive 2017 commitment but aren't ready to entrust Miguel Sano with the position following a very shaky defensive showing this year, Polanco could be a solution. He didn't look especially good in his nine starts at the hot corner this year, but could improve if it is his focus heading into the offseason and spring training. However, the downsides here are clear. His arm might play a little better at third than short, but still would hardly be an asset. And while his bat stands out at a middle infield spot, that's less true at an offense-driven corner position. This year, American League third basemen posted the highest OPS of any position other than DH. 4. Backup or Utility Man This idea has its appeal. In a utility role, Polanco would be able to fill in a few times per week around the diamond, and would be an excellent fallback if (when?) one of the starters fizzled or got hurt. With his ability to swing from both sides and his solid speed, he would be a handy piece of have on the bench. Yet, it feels like a bit of a waste. It's also not especially fair to the player. Polanco has shown enough during his time in the majors to justify an everyday role. He's still in a developmental stage and that could be hindered by a lack of regular playing time. 5. Trade Him I really wonder if this is what they are leaning toward. In the latter part of the season, Polanco was constantly playing shortstop and frequently batting third in the order. Does the team really view him as that caliber of player, or were they simply showcasing him for the rest of the league? Everyone knows Polanco would be fine at second, but now teams have plenty of film to evaluate and make their own judgments about his proclivity at short. The Twins know that if they want to acquire impact talent via trade, it might mean giving up some of their own coveted young players. Polanco is among the only ones among that group that could really be viewed as expendable. What it comes down to is how much the rest of the execs around the league value Polanco. It doesn't make sense to give up a young, controllable middle infielder who has proven his capabilities at the major-league level unless you're getting a significant haul in return. Given that Polanco has a well-rounded yet unspectacular skill set, I do wonder if a sufficient offer is going to come. What would be your plan for Polanco this offseason?
  21. In attempting to re-tool and improve a catastrophic pitching staff, the Twins and their new Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey will need to explore every avenue. Here are a few worth looking into.When we release our annual Offseason Handbook in about a month (pre-order details coming soon!), it will lay out a multitude of roster construction options, as always. Which ones make the most sense? Obviously the Twins aren't at a point where it would be logical to go all in on an established ace or bullpen star through free agency or trades, so instead, the Twins must focus on upside and value. Here are a few approaches I would like to see from Falvey and the restructured front office. Gamble on high-upside free agents The Twins have plenty invested in mid-level free agent talent. They already have enough long-term commitments on the books with aging arms. Since the pitching really can't get any worse, though, they don't need to worry about the downside of a boom-or-bust arm in free agency. There are a few such names out there. You'll find all of them in the Handbook but a few that stand out are starters such as Brett Anderson and Derek Holland, as well as relievers like Greg Holland and Drew Storen. These players may prove too risky for some contenders, but could be lured to a rebuilding club by guaranteed contracts with incentives. Trade from areas of offensive depth Obvioulsy Brian Dozier's name is going to be at forefront of trade buzz surrounding the Twins this offseason. If the Twins are aiming to acquire a true frontline-caliber talent, they'll need to offer him up. However, if they are committed to keeping Dozier and building around him, they could set their sights a bit lower. They have enough outfield depth that they could afford to part with Eddie Rosario or even Max Kepler for the right return. Jorge Polanco might bring back a high-end pitching prospect. Perhaps even Kennys Vargas has intrigued a bat-needy team enough to bring back a youngster with some potential. In 2010, with Falvey serving as assistant director of baseball operations, the Indians identified a struggling Double-A pitcher in the Padres system named Corey Kluber. They acquired him as part of a three-team deal that involved them giving up veteran mediocrity Jake Westbrook. They ended up with a Cy Young winner. The Twins need a hit like that right now. Scour the international market These days, more and more top-tier talent is entering the pro ranks through international free agency rather than the draft. The Twins have brought in outstanding prospects like Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler through this avenue. Teenage infielder Wander Javier, signed to a $4 million bonus last July, is an example of their increasing aggressiveness on the Latino market. They have taken financials leaps of faith on established Japanese and Korean hitters like Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Byung Ho Park. But their international efforts when it comes to pitching have been far quieter, and less fruitful. Falvey should urge a stronger push for the most renowned arms across all foreign frontiers. One name to watch is Hector Mendoza, a Cuban righty who is reportedly preparing to pursue MLB free agency. The 22-year-old has worked as a reliever but Baseball America's Ben Badler has said he "has the attributes to be a starter and would certainly be in that role if he were in the United States," ranking Mendoza among Cuba's top prospects. Currently there aren't any premier names of the Masahiro Tanaka class to be lured from Japan or Korea, but with Dodgers rookie Kenta Maeda becoming the latest story of a successful transition from the Far East, this is a region that cannot be ignored. Find catchers that can help out Minnesota's pitchers were bad this year, no doubt, but they didn't get much assistance from their receivers. Kurt Suzuki, Juan Centeno and John Ryan Murphy all rated poorly in terms of pitch framing, let too many stoppable balls skip past them, and failed to adequately control the running game. With Suzuki set to depart, the Twins have stated that their top offseason priority is finding a new catcher. They have enough offensive quality throughout their lineup that they can afford to target glove-first players who deliver value primarily with their defense. Of particular interest to me is free agent Jason Castro, who developed a very strong reputation with the Astros. Pitch framing metrics rank him among the best, and he's even got a little pop with double-digit homers in four straight seasons. He batted just .210 this year while sharing time with Evan Gattis, so he might be rather affordable. Implement new training and strengthening techniques My curiosity about Falvey was piqued by reports of his championing innovative methods for strengthening pitchers and improving mechanics while in the Cleveland organization. I'd love to see him try out some new techniques and ideas here, because the present structure doesn't seem to be working. As I wrote last week, I also think there is a clear need for a more experienced pitching coach. At every step of the organization, pitching instruction and development should be critically reviewed. In particular, the Twins should examine the latest research and advancements on preserving shoulder health, because that has been a particularly problematic issue for their hurlers. What are some strategies you would utilize to turn around the pitching staff? Click here to view the article
  22. When we release our annual Offseason Handbook in about a month (pre-order details coming soon!), it will lay out a multitude of roster construction options, as always. Which ones make the most sense? Obviously the Twins aren't at a point where it would be logical to go all in on an established ace or bullpen star through free agency or trades, so instead, the Twins must focus on upside and value. Here are a few approaches I would like to see from Falvey and the restructured front office. Gamble on high-upside free agents The Twins have plenty invested in mid-level free agent talent. They already have enough long-term commitments on the books with aging arms. Since the pitching really can't get any worse, though, they don't need to worry about the downside of a boom-or-bust arm in free agency. There are a few such names out there. You'll find all of them in the Handbook but a few that stand out are starters such as Brett Anderson and Derek Holland, as well as relievers like Greg Holland and Drew Storen. These players may prove too risky for some contenders, but could be lured to a rebuilding club by guaranteed contracts with incentives. Trade from areas of offensive depth Obvioulsy Brian Dozier's name is going to be at forefront of trade buzz surrounding the Twins this offseason. If the Twins are aiming to acquire a true frontline-caliber talent, they'll need to offer him up. However, if they are committed to keeping Dozier and building around him, they could set their sights a bit lower. They have enough outfield depth that they could afford to part with Eddie Rosario or even Max Kepler for the right return. Jorge Polanco might bring back a high-end pitching prospect. Perhaps even Kennys Vargas has intrigued a bat-needy team enough to bring back a youngster with some potential. In 2010, with Falvey serving as assistant director of baseball operations, the Indians identified a struggling Double-A pitcher in the Padres system named Corey Kluber. They acquired him as part of a three-team deal that involved them giving up veteran mediocrity Jake Westbrook. They ended up with a Cy Young winner. The Twins need a hit like that right now. Scour the international market These days, more and more top-tier talent is entering the pro ranks through international free agency rather than the draft. The Twins have brought in outstanding prospects like Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler through this avenue. Teenage infielder Wander Javier, signed to a $4 million bonus last July, is an example of their increasing aggressiveness on the Latino market. They have taken financials leaps of faith on established Japanese and Korean hitters like Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Byung Ho Park. But their international efforts when it comes to pitching have been far quieter, and less fruitful. Falvey should urge a stronger push for the most renowned arms across all foreign frontiers. One name to watch is Hector Mendoza, a Cuban righty who is reportedly preparing to pursue MLB free agency. The 22-year-old has worked as a reliever but Baseball America's Ben Badler has said he "has the attributes to be a starter and would certainly be in that role if he were in the United States," ranking Mendoza among Cuba's top prospects. Currently there aren't any premier names of the Masahiro Tanaka class to be lured from Japan or Korea, but with Dodgers rookie Kenta Maeda becoming the latest story of a successful transition from the Far East, this is a region that cannot be ignored. Find catchers that can help out Minnesota's pitchers were bad this year, no doubt, but they didn't get much assistance from their receivers. Kurt Suzuki, Juan Centeno and John Ryan Murphy all rated poorly in terms of pitch framing, let too many stoppable balls skip past them, and failed to adequately control the running game. With Suzuki set to depart, the Twins have stated that their top offseason priority is finding a new catcher. They have enough offensive quality throughout their lineup that they can afford to target glove-first players who deliver value primarily with their defense. Of particular interest to me is free agent Jason Castro, who developed a very strong reputation with the Astros. Pitch framing metrics rank him among the best, and he's even got a little pop with double-digit homers in four straight seasons. He batted just .210 this year while sharing time with Evan Gattis, so he might be rather affordable. Implement new training and strengthening techniques My curiosity about Falvey was piqued by reports of his championing innovative methods for strengthening pitchers and improving mechanics while in the Cleveland organization. I'd love to see him try out some new techniques and ideas here, because the present structure doesn't seem to be working. As I wrote last week, I also think there is a clear need for a more experienced pitching coach. At every step of the organization, pitching instruction and development should be critically reviewed. In particular, the Twins should examine the latest research and advancements on preserving shoulder health, because that has been a particularly problematic issue for their hurlers. What are some strategies you would utilize to turn around the pitching staff?
  23. If the Twins had made the playoffs, or even come remotely close, Brian Dozier's name would be floating alongside Mookie Betts and Mike Trout in the American League MVP conversation. Instead, since the Twins were by far the worst team in baseball, he will be largely overlooked in national award discussions. Nevertheless, Dozier deserves recognition for a truly special campaign.In some ways, Dozier's 2016 season was a continuation of his established career trend. In both 2014 and 2015, the second baseman delivered scalding hot production in the early months that was offset somewhat by a frigidly cold stretch in the latter portion, leading to overall numbers that were impressive but short of spectacular. This season he flipped the script somewhat. First, because he reversed his pattern by starting slow and finishing strong. And second, because his hot streak was on another level from any we've seen from him -- or, really, anyone else. Over the final four months he hit 37 home runs with a .631 slugging percentage in 109 contests. Overall, Dozier finished his age-29 season with a .268/.340/.546 slash line to go along with 42 homers, 35 doubles, five triples, 104 runs scored, 99 RBI and 18 steals on 20 tries. Incredible numbers across the board. He also provided steady and occasionally outstanding defense at second base, although you'll be hard-pressed to find any metric that ranks him as one of the best. FanGraphs pegs his WAR at 6.0, tied for eighth-best in the American League. The next-highest qualifying Twins hitter was Joe Mauer, whose 1.0 mark ranked 66th. In other words, this wasn't exactly a tough decision. The prodigious power output was remarkable and rare. His 40 home runs as a second baseman were the most ever for an American Leaguer. In the past 50 years, only 27 other MLB players have surpassed 40 homers and 35 doubles in the same season. Only two others have also added five triples. In short, Dozier was an amazing source of self-manufactured offense. He put himself across the plate 42 times, and six times he was able to notch a run on the board before Minnesota's second batter came up to the plate in the first inning. When he wasn't completing the job himself, Dozier was constantly placing himself in scoring position with extra-base hits and steals, leading to a third straight 100-run season. That Dozier was able to singularly produce this much offense for a club that still managed to lose 103 games is a testament to the adage that baseball is a team game, and there's only so much one guy out of nine in the lineup can do. Hopefully next year his contributions will be more meaningful, if he's still here. In the meantime, let's just sit back and marvel at where his homer total ranks in Minnesota Twins history. Killer company, one might say. Most Home Runs in a Twins Season 49 - Killebrew, 1964 49 - Killebrew, 1969 48 - Killebrew, 1962 46 - Killebrew, 1961 45 - Killebrew, 1963 44 - Killebrew, 1967 42 - Dozier, 2016 41 - Killebrew, 1970 39 - Killebrew, 1966 35 - Allison, 1963 35 - Willingham, 2012 THE BALLOTS Here's how the voting for this one shook out on our seven-man panel. Obviously, not much dissent for the top choice: Seth Stohs – 1.) Brian Doizer, 2.) Ervin Santana 3.) Joe Mauer Parker Hageman – 1.) Brian Dozier, 2.) Ervin Santana, 3.) Joe Mauer Nick Nelson – 1.) Brian Dozier, 2.) Ervin Santana, 3.) Joe Mauer Jeremy Nygaard – 1.) Brian Dozier, 2.) Joe Mauer, 3.) Max Kepler Cody Christie – 1.) Brian Dozier, 2.) Ervin Santana, 3.) Joe Mauer Steve Lien – 1.) Brian Dozier, 2.) Miguel Sano, 3.) Ervin Santana Eric Pleiss – 1.) Brian Dozier, 2.) Ervin Santana, 3.) Miguel Sano POINTS Brian Dozier: 35 Ervin Santana: 21 Joe Mauer: 14 Miguel Sano: 12 Max Kepler: 8 Eduardo Nunez: 5 Robbie Grossman: 1 Kurt Suzuki: 1 Byron Buxton: 1 Other 2016 Twins Daily Award recipients: Most Improved: Brian Dozier Rookie of the Year- Max Kepler Best Pitcher: Ervin Santana Click here to view the article
  24. In some ways, Dozier's 2016 season was a continuation of his established career trend. In both 2014 and 2015, the second baseman delivered scalding hot production in the early months that was offset somewhat by a frigidly cold stretch in the latter portion, leading to overall numbers that were impressive but short of spectacular. This season he flipped the script somewhat. First, because he reversed his pattern by starting slow and finishing strong. And second, because his hot streak was on another level from any we've seen from him -- or, really, anyone else. Over the final four months he hit 37 home runs with a .631 slugging percentage in 109 contests. Overall, Dozier finished his age-29 season with a .268/.340/.546 slash line to go along with 42 homers, 35 doubles, five triples, 104 runs scored, 99 RBI and 18 steals on 20 tries. Incredible numbers across the board. He also provided steady and occasionally outstanding defense at second base, although you'll be hard-pressed to find any metric that ranks him as one of the best. FanGraphs pegs his WAR at 6.0, tied for eighth-best in the American League. The next-highest qualifying Twins hitter was Joe Mauer, whose 1.0 mark ranked 66th. In other words, this wasn't exactly a tough decision. The prodigious power output was remarkable and rare. His 40 home runs as a second baseman were the most ever for an American Leaguer. In the past 50 years, only 27 other MLB players have surpassed 40 homers and 35 doubles in the same season. Only two others have also added five triples. In short, Dozier was an amazing source of self-manufactured offense. He put himself across the plate 42 times, and six times he was able to notch a run on the board before Minnesota's second batter came up to the plate in the first inning. When he wasn't completing the job himself, Dozier was constantly placing himself in scoring position with extra-base hits and steals, leading to a third straight 100-run season. That Dozier was able to singularly produce this much offense for a club that still managed to lose 103 games is a testament to the adage that baseball is a team game, and there's only so much one guy out of nine in the lineup can do. Hopefully next year his contributions will be more meaningful, if he's still here. In the meantime, let's just sit back and marvel at where his homer total ranks in Minnesota Twins history. Killer company, one might say. Most Home Runs in a Twins Season 49 - Killebrew, 1964 49 - Killebrew, 1969 48 - Killebrew, 1962 46 - Killebrew, 1961 45 - Killebrew, 1963 44 - Killebrew, 1967 42 - Dozier, 2016 41 - Killebrew, 1970 39 - Killebrew, 1966 35 - Allison, 1963 35 - Willingham, 2012 THE BALLOTS Here's how the voting for this one shook out on our seven-man panel. Obviously, not much dissent for the top choice: Seth Stohs – 1.) Brian Doizer, 2.) Ervin Santana 3.) Joe Mauer Parker Hageman – 1.) Brian Dozier, 2.) Ervin Santana, 3.) Joe Mauer Nick Nelson – 1.) Brian Dozier, 2.) Ervin Santana, 3.) Joe Mauer Jeremy Nygaard – 1.) Brian Dozier, 2.) Joe Mauer, 3.) Max Kepler Cody Christie – 1.) Brian Dozier, 2.) Ervin Santana, 3.) Joe Mauer Steve Lien – 1.) Brian Dozier, 2.) Miguel Sano, 3.) Ervin Santana Eric Pleiss – 1.) Brian Dozier, 2.) Ervin Santana, 3.) Miguel Sano POINTS Brian Dozier: 35 Ervin Santana: 21 Joe Mauer: 14 Miguel Sano: 12 Max Kepler: 8 Eduardo Nunez: 5 Robbie Grossman: 1 Kurt Suzuki: 1 Byron Buxton: 1 Other 2016 Twins Daily Award recipients: Most Improved: Brian Dozier Rookie of the Year- Max Kepler Best Pitcher: Ervin Santana
  25. The Twins have made it clear that they intend to keep manager Paul Molitor around for one more try after leading his team to a record 103 losses. His coaching staff, however, may not be so safe. Neil Allen, in particular, looks like an obvious candidate for replacement.I'm generally not one to buy into the oft-exaggerated impact of pitching and hitting coaches, nor one to advocate for someone's dismissal after such a short time on his position. But the Twins took a gamble when they hired Allen two years ago, giving their rookie manager a pitching coach with no major-league experience, and it sure looks like they got it wrong. Each hurler is responsible for his own performance, of course, but the constant team-wide pitching struggles this year were striking. One after another, players marched to the mound with seemingly no plan. Effective adjustments were rarely seen. In particular, younger pitchers appeared totally unequipped for the task of retiring big-league hitters. Tyler Duffey posted the third-worst ERA ever for a Twin with 25-plus starts. Jose Berrios pitched past the fifth inning only three times in 14 tries. These guys far are more capable than their inflated numbers show, and the same can be said for too many members of Minnesota's staff. Kyle Gibson's WHIP would've ranked as second-worst in the majors if he qualified, after he was the best starter on the 2015 staff. Ricky Nolasco went to the Angels at the deadline and posted a 3.21 ERA over 11 starts thereafter, directly crediting his new pitching coach for his improvement. Alex Meyer, similarly, has looked vastly better since switching clubs. Allen came in with a reputation for expertise with teaching the changeup. No Twins pitcher has noticeably improved that pitch. He was purported to have a bulldog mentality, and spoke about the importance of throwing inside and backing hitters off the plate. His pitchers evidently didn't internalize such a mentality, because they were continually out over the plate, and allowed the second-most home runs in franchise history. I don't really hold Allen's suspension, stemming from a DWI charge in late May, against him. People make mistakes and he handled it the right way. It doesn't help his case that he was gone for six weeks in the middle of the season, but what's more problematic is that there was no evidence of positive influence when he was on the job. The tasks looming ahead of the Twins, when it comes to turning around this historically bad pitching unit, are immense. Helping Berrios find the strike zone is the highest priority. Once top prospect Stephen Gonsalves graduates he may face the same challenge. Getting Duffey and Gibson back on track is vital. When Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins return from shoulder surgery rehab, they will need significant guidance because they may be forced to reinvent themselves in order to succeed. And the bullpen is filled with projects. It's tough to believe that Allen is the one to take on these critical imperatives. Whatever his methods, they aren't resonating and too many pitchers are underperforming. One of the primary objectives for Derek Falvey in his first offseason at the helm will be to identify a replacement pitching coach. I believe he would be wise to seek someone with more experience, and a track record of helping pitchers figure it out in the big leagues. A complete roster overhaul is not realistic so the Twins need to find someone who can get more out of the existing assets. It goes without saying that the results this year were beyond unacceptable. Click here to view the article
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