Nick Nelson

What do you base that on? This team's infallible ability to identify and properly utilize relief talent?

I didn't say the Twins were clearly responsible for any lack of effectiveness. I said they didn't put him in position to succeed and I stand by that. They haven't used him in the way that he found immense success in Triple-A for several years in a row. They have him out here throwing 50 pitches in an outing, something he hasn't done in many years. This is part of a larger trend.

Remember when the Twins gave a combined 124 relief appearances to Tim Stauffer, J.R. Graham, Matt Guerrier and Anthony Swarzak over the last two years? And we've got people talking about how Tonkin proved his worthlessness by failing to flat-out dominate in his limited opportunities. Unreal.

I think you're misinterpreting the point. It's about the cumulative wear that this kind of unfamiliar usage has on him.

Where was any opinion stated as a fact in this article? Seriously, show me one example. The opening portion was phrased as a question to the reader. The conclusions states that it "seems" the Twins have been operating without a plan, at least without a half-decent one. This is how you express opinions. Not sure what else you want. Re: Tonkin. In 60 MLB appearances over the last 3 years he had a 3.35 ERA, 1.32 WHIP. Those are fine numbers from a young reliever learning his way in the majors, so your third point (which, I MUST SAY, appears to be an opinion stated as a fact!) isn't very accurate. He has done ok when given the chance but that has happened infrequently because the Twins have continually shown a preference for low-upside vets (Stauffer, Fien, Boyer, Burton, etc etc)

He's not treated like a god. But what good does it do to a publicly admonish him for the kinds of struggles and lapses that affect nearly every young player in MLB, especially one that's been yanked around as much as him? And why does he get these types of criticisms while someone like Danny Santana floats by as one of the worst players in the major leagues for multiple years, essentially unscathed?

Re: Joe. Ok, fair enough. I understand the general annoyance with people who are constantly negative and critical, but those exist in all walks of life and they're going to be more active at times like this. I simply disagree with the characterization of this site's content as slanting unnecessarily or unfairly negative. I really do not believe that's the case.

Appreciate you saying that, as I do make a concerted effort to balance the positive and negative. Finding the bright side gets a little tough when things are as dire as they are currently. Most people come to this site looking for open, independent and candid coverage. In times like these, that means calling out mistakes and criticizing processes that continue to lead the team in the wrong direction. Evidently some readers believe all of the content should be tailored to their own personal tastes and preferences.

I would suggest you aren't looking very hard. You realize Seth writes on this site even more than I do, right?

Also: Everyone is welcome to blog on this site, Joe. I see you have zero posts. If you want to change the tone of the conversation, then do it.

Reality? Reality is that this is one of the worst teams in baseball for half a decade running. Reality is that the Twins can't put people in the seats of their beautiful new stadium 5 years after it was built. Reality is a long-standing trend of poor planning and ineffective adaptations leading to the situation we are currently in. Reality is that interest in baseball around this town has dipped so low that I can't even engage friends and family members in conversations about the team anymore because they have stopped caring. Reality is that as a lifelong Twins fans, these things are extremely vexing to me, and I know I'm not alone. I realize that for most readers this sport is a hobby, and a pastime. Some people don't like any level of negativity involved in their enjoyment of the game and if that's the case for you (as it appears to be) there's plenty of stuff on this site for you to consume. Heck, there are plenty of fluff stories in the MSM pubs if that's your thing. If you find the site unreadable because the tone is dictated by the quality of the baseball being presented to paying customers, perhaps your frustration is misdirected?

I think that's a pretty harsh way to summarize my stance. My point was more, "If you want May to be a starter, he still ultimately can be, but there are very valid reasons for having him in the bullpen." As I mentioned in this piece, those reasons (rotation depth, May's value in a contending bullpen) were washed away pretty early, and the addition of the injuries should have made reversing the decision a no-brainer. Alas...

There's a problem with the Twins' plan. The problem is that, by all appearances, they don't really have one. What else are we supposed to make of the ongoing series of inexplicable decisions that have propelled the club toward another last-place finish?All too often, poor outcomes that have struck the Twins this year can be traced back to questionable judgment. Let's take a look at five particularly troublesome examples: 1. The handling of Miguel Sano. Sano has endured ups and downs, as most 23-year-olds do. That should be factored into the plan. Yet, the team's outward-facing actions regarding the slugger – from publicly questioning his work ethic to needless benchings and drops in the lineup – have projected disappointment and frustration. The kid does have an ego, which often comes with the territory of legendary talent. But I don't think it's a particularly harmful or provocative one, and to imply that he's not focused on being great is flatly absurd. Sano's defensive miscues are understandable with his lack of reps at the position in recent years, thanks to all the time spent at DH and right field. His alleged unwillingness to put in extra side work might be related to elbow pain that has relegated him to DH lately. Except, when an MRI on the elbow came up negative, he returned to third in his first game back, so the injury must not have been that bad? Right? Who knows. If there has been any real plan in place regarding Sano, at any point this year, it's hard to tell. 2. Signing Byung Ho Park The meandering trajectory of Sano was put into place by the signing of Byung Ho Park during the offseason. That moved seemed a bit perplexing at the time, and now with the benefit of hindsight it looks absolutely flabbergasting. Because they were compelled to outbid the competition and bring Park aboard while keeping Trevor Plouffe on, the Twins left Sano in the lurch. The idea of sending him to the outfield unsurprisingly didn't take, nor did Park's transition to the major leagues. Outside of the power, the KBO star's offensive dominance did not carry over. Park batted .191 with the Twins and .224 in Triple-A before having his season ended by wrist surgery last week. Meanwhile, Kenny Vargas – whom the Twins implicitly gave up on by signing Park – is proving to be worthy of a longer look. Unfortunately, with Joe Mauer entrenched at first and Sano in positional limbo, there's no room for the big switch-hitter. He was optioned to the minors despite a .955 OPS. So, the Twins will head into next year with Mauer at first, Sano lacking a defensive home, Vargas out of options, and Park making millions to play first base in Triple-A. 3. Michael Tonkin's odd role assignment. After first reaching the Triple-A level in 2013, Tonkin cemented his standing as one of the organization's top relief prospects by flat-out burying hitters there. In 118 innings with Rochester spread over three seasons, the lanky fireballer put up a 2.65 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 128-to-25 K/BB ratio. He did so while throwing in short bursts. Tonkin was typically asked to get three outs or less, working in a setup or closer role. Of his 102 appearances at Triple-A, he threw 30-plus pitches in only 10. As a high-effort hurler who brings it in the mid-90s consistently, that approach made sense. So what did the Twins do this year? They decided to turn him into a long reliever, for some reason. Despite his superior performance in the minors, and solid results in past MLB chances, the right-hander has been largely used as a spare part and workload sponge in the bullpen. He has thrown 30-plus pitches in 11 of his 56 appearances, even pushing to 40 a couple of times and 50 once. Should we be surprised that his performance is deteriorating here as we head into the latter part of the season? Tonkin has a 9.75 ERA in August, with a 1.060 OPS allowed. It sure looks like he is worn down. As a result, he's turned from an encouraging relief story to a suspect fringe piece in a bullpen picture that is filled with them. Tonkin is another in a long line of players who simply wasn't put in a position to succeed by this club. 4. Trevor May's aimless path. In 2014, May emerged as an impact MLB-ready starting prospect with his brilliant efforts in Triple-A. Last year, he began fulfilling his promise as a starter before the Twins shifted him to the bullpen. They elected to send him back there this spring. The line of thinking made sense only under these conditions: the Twins were competitive enough to require a shutdown late-inning arm, and the rotation was strong enough not to require his upside as a starting pitcher. Neither of those things have been true. That became apparent very early, but the Twins have shown no urgency to stray from their course. May's body has not reacted well to the overhaul in a routine that had been set over many years in an exclusive starting role. He has spent two lengthy periods on the disabled list, with Paul Molitor only hinting that he'll revisit May's usage during the offseason. Next year the right-hander will probably be reacclimating to a different regimen, once again. Seems like a logical way to treat one of the best arms on an atrocious pitching staff. 5. Top prospect turmoil Where did the Twins go wrong with Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios? I can't purport to know. I don't think any of us can. But clearly, nothing is clicking for the club's two brightest young talents. While both have mastered the minors, the organization has been unable to help facilitate the next step. Buxton is the more disturbing case; he has failed to make any meaningful progress through 100 MLB games, spread across four different opportunities. Berrios is greener still, with only nine big-league starts under his belt, but none have even approximated excellence. When run prevention is far-and-away your biggest issue, the importance of ushering in your best pitching prospect and a ballhawk center fielder who catches everything in his zip code cannot be overstated. Given what we've seen from the team so far – bewildered remarks, hasty demotions, coaching overload – it's tough to have faith in things getting figured out. At least, with this current group. These are but five notable instances of poor planning that stand out among many. I haven't even touched on the curious decisions surrounding players like Jorge Polanco, Tyler Duffey and Eduardo Escobar, nor the complete lack of vision at the catcher position. There's an old saying that goes, "If you fail to plan, you plan to fail." That phrase seems to summarize this abject failure of a Twins season pretty well. Click here to view the article

On Tuesday night, the Tigers and Twins kicked off a series at Target Field. On the hill for Detroit was Matt Boyd, a 25-year-old lefty who owns a 2.38 ERA since the beginning of July. Along with Rookie of the Year frontrunner Michael Fulmer, Boyd is a key component in a resurgent rotation that ranks sixth in the AL in ERA after finishing last in 2015. Neither was in the organization 13 months ago.Fulmer, who the Twins will be lucky enough to avoid this week, has gone 10-4 with a league-leading 2.58 ERA in 20 starts since joining Detroit's rotation at the end of April. The Tigers got him back from the Mets in exchange for Yoenis Cespedes at last year's deadline. Boyd was acquired a day earlier, as part of the package that netted the Blue Jays David Price. Detroit made four straight postseason runs before spiraling to fifth place in 2015. They used the opportunity to bring in more young impact pitching talent than the Twins have during five years of futility, and now the Tigers are back in the playoff race again. Astonishing, really. Granted, it's not every day you have high-caliber rentals like Price and Cespedes to dangle. But neither Fulmer nor Boyd was an elite prospect. General manager Al Avila and his front office simply targeted the right guys. In order to get their woeful staff back on the track, the Twins must absolutely do the same. They may have found something in Adalberto Mejia, who came over from San Francisco in the Eduardo Nunez trade last month. But they need to keep adding to their pipeline in order to enhance their chances at striking. Watching Minnesota's pitchers get clubbed around on a regular basis, it feels like a return to respectability is far away. But the Tigers are showing that a turnaround can happen rather quickly. The Twins themselves have shown this, jumping from 15th in runs allowed in 2014 to eighth last year before falling back off a cliff. Run production is not a problem for this team. For a third straight season, they are at or above the league average in scoring. Preventing runs is the hold-up, and needs to be the primary focus heading into 2017. Pressure is growing with the postseason drought extending and the youthful offensive core gaining traction. Some of the improvement will need to come internally, of course. They can't really count on Phil Hughes coming off shoulder surgery but he's a possible factor. It sounds like Trevor May will get another shot at starting. Kyle Gibson ought to rebound from this strangely dismal season. Most importantly, Jose Berrios will hopefully find his way and become a force to be reckoned with. But relying solely upon those pieces to form a quality rotation around Ervin Santana is not an option. If the Twins actually have aspirations of returning to contention next year – and I truly believe they do – they need to add at least one more arm with high-end potential. They subtracted one, albeit one with fleeting appeal, when they sent Alex Meyer to the Angels. So, where to find such an arm? Free agency is probably not the answer. Even with some spending flexibility and Ricky Nolasco off the books, there just isn't a single name on the upcoming market that pops out. I would suggest that the best approach is following the same path the Tigers did to acquire Boyd and Fulmer, and the same one the Twins did with Meyer: trading established MLB players for fast-tracked minor-league pitching with sizable upside. There are a few different assets that could be considered for such a move, but when it comes to making a transformative splash, only one solution makes sense. That would be shopping Brian Dozier. While sitting in as co-host on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast on Sunday, I discussed the notion of dealing Dozier extensively with Aaron. I recommend clicking here and giving it a listen, if you haven't. But the bottom line is that, as a power-hitting second baseman who is under 30 with a favorable contract, Dozier is extremely valuable. He hit his 30th home run on Wednesday night and is enjoying a career year. This would be the definition of selling high. And as it happens, the Twins are equipped to replace him. Second base is Jorge Polanco's best position. While losing Dozier would obviously hurt, it's the kind of major shakeup that is warranted at the conclusion of another disastrous 90-loss season. Given the relatively lopsided nature of the offense and pitching staff at this point, it only makes sense to draw from one to help the other. Yet, this idea is contingent on targeting the right guys. Otherwise, it's a catastrophe in the making. If the Twins don't trust Rob Antony to do it, they need to find someone they do. The stakes are high. Click here to view the article

I don't think there's ever much risk in signing a guy to a one-year deal. It's not a hampering commitment. His strange struggles this month notwithstanding, Santiago has pretty consistently been the same guy over his five-year career. I say "low-risk" in comparison to someone with more upside and perhaps less of a stable track record.

Over the weekend, Kennys Vargas was sent to the minors, the Twins called up two newly acquired pitching prospects, and Hector Santiago got rocked. Read on for analysis of each development.* The Twins needed pitching reinforcements after Friday night's marathon contest in Kansas City extended past bar close. The unfortunate victim in the ensuing roster shuffling was Kennys Vargas, who hasn't done much during his time with the team to deserve a demotion. Since coming up in early July, Vargas has posted a .955 OPS with six homers and 17 walks in 25 games, delivering both patience and power. The switch-hitter has cooled off here in August amidst sparse playing time. Therein lies the problem. Joe Mauer is locked in at first. Miguel Sano is relegated mostly to DH as long as Trevor Plouffe is here and maybe beyond, given the elbow issues. This leaves no path to immediate playing time for Vargas, and that didn't figure to change any time soon. The 26-year-old's offensive profile looks good in the middle of the order, but there's not a fit for him here. The same was true for Oswaldo Arcia, who was designated for assignment by the Rays over the weekend. Sometimes, being able to crush the ball simply isn't enough. * In the corresponding move when Vargas was optioned, the Twins called up Adalberto Mejia, who came over in the Eduardo Nunez trade. The lefty had been fairly sharp in his first three starts with Rochester, but got pushed into the big-league fold sooner than anyone expected, out of necessity. Mejia made his MLB debut in mop-up duty, handling the middle innings of a blowout loss. He didn't fare too well, yielding five hits and a walk over 2 1/3 innings, and was optioned following the game. It wasn't the most glamorous opportunity for his first chance, but the prospect did his thing and should be back in 10 days when rosters expand. Replacing him on the staff is Pat Light, who was acquired by the Twins a few days after Mejia. Rob Antony and the front office are wasting no time getting a look at their new additions. Light made a couple of inauspicious appearances in the Red Sox bullpen this year before being swapped for Fernando Abad on deadline day. He was still waiting for his first extended chance in the majors. Now, he should get it, albeit 10 days after it was supposed to happen. MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger explains the rookie's phantom call-up: You can only imagine how frustrating the experience must have been for the hard-throwing righty, so this opportunity must feel redeeming. Light has put up impressive numbers in Triple-A this year (2.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.9 K/9) so I'm eager to see what he's got. * One player that has failed to impress in several chances for his new club is Hector Santiago. His horrendous outing at Kauffman Stadium on Saturday night paved the way for Mejia's long-relief outing. The veteran has been raked all over the yard whenever he has taken the hill for the Twins. His first impression feels similar to the one Tommy Milone gave after coming over from the West Coast two years ago. Of course, Milone shook off the slump and reverted back to his old self the following year. In 2015, he put up a 3.92 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 128 innings, perfectly respectable numbers. We can reasonably expect the same from Santiago. The problem is that, like Milone, Santiago at his best is essentially an average pitcher. Do the Twins want to commit to such low-risk, low-reward gambles at a time when they need to be aiming high? Luckily, Santiago's contract status essentially gives Minnesota a team option for next year, so they can make that decision on its own merit. Click here to view the article

Again, the point here was more relating to workload progression and timelines than picking apart small-sample minor-league stats. Maybe both of these guys are bound for the bullpen. If so, then the Twins still passed up Benintendi, who has clearly developed into one of the game's better OF prospects. The pick just doesn't look very good right now.

The same could have more or less been said about B.J. Hermsen, until his lack of ability to miss bats caught up with him. I'd honestly be curious to know how many pitchers that had a

I'm not holding it against Jay, I'm holding it against the Twins. With a desperate need for starting pitching, they bypassed the top collegiate ace in the country in order to gamble on transitioning another reliever into a starter. Someone else brought up the Duffey comparison and I think that one is apt. He threw 70 innings in 2012, between his junior year at Rice and his rookie ball debut. The next year he made the starting transition and went up to 120 innings. Then 150 the next year. That's the progression you're looking for. Jay stalling out before 90 innings this year puts him behind, in a case where the stakes are much higher because he was a Top 10 pick not a 5th-rounder. And because Minnesota's era of ineptitude is extending well beyond a half-decade and they need reinforcements soon, not in 2-3 years when/if Jay is able to acclimate to the rigors of starting.

If you're nitpicking Carson Fulmer based on his initial performance in the majors I think you're kind of missing the point. I'm not saying he's ready to be an ace, nor am I defending Chicago's handling of him, but the fact remains he reached the majors a year after being drafted, is still healthy, and is setting himself up to be a rotation option (if not a given) for 2017. I was skeptical of the decision to draft Jay over him from the very start so admittedly I have my own preconceptions about this situation. Agreed, and this was the redeeming quality of the pick in my mind. Still, when you're a team that needs pitching as badly as the Twins, ending up with a lefty reliever with the #6 pick in the draft is far from an ideal outcome.

That's definitely an underestimate on his weight, probably based on several years ago. I'd guess he's carrying 20-30 more pounds. You can see in the image (or these highlights) he is far from a beanpole. The missed time in 2015 was due to a suspension for stimulants.