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Soon after dismissing longtime general manager Terry Ryan, the Minnesota Twins indicated that they'd be transitioning to a new front office structure, wherein the GM reports to a president of baseball operations. Several sources strongly indicate that their search for a new front office leader will soon lead to the hiring of Cleveland Indians assistant GM Derek Falvey.Falvey is known to be one of the finalists for the position. TD contributor Jeremy Nygaard tweeted on Sunday that he hears Falvey is the likely choice. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports tweeted on Monday that Falvey is the "distinct favorite." Twins Daily has heard the same from sources within both the Twins and Indians organizations. With the end of the season less than a week away, an official announcement could come soon. UPDATE: Keith Law of ESPN.com has provided definitive confirmation: If Falvey is the guy, what would his hiring mean? Given the visionary nature of the position, his age and experience are noteworthy. He's only 33, and his highest rank has been assistant GM, which is current his job title with Cleveland. Before his promotion to that role a year ago, he was the organization's director of baseball operations for four seasons. Sound familiar? During his relatively short time in a major-league front office, Falvey has built a strong reputation. Passan noted in the past that the potential new Twins boss is "extremely well-regarded in (the) industry." Last summer, Passan wrote that Falvey "oversees the Indians’ whole pitching program." That program has produced a division winner this year, powered by a pitching staff ranked second in the American League in ERA. Given the Twins' desperate need to improve in run prevention, Falvey's area of expertise makes him a very logical candidate. While he would now oversee Minnesota's baseball operations, presumably there will be a collaborative decision-making approach within the front office. The Twins might borrow the same blueprint that the Indians put into place last year. At that point, they moved former general manager Chris Antonetti up to President of Baseball Ops while naming Mike Chernoff GM and Falvey his assistant. I wouldn't be surprised to see Minnesota employ a similar three-legged structure, and I also wouldn't be surprised if Rob Antony stayed on in one of those lesser roles so as to maintain some sense of continuity. If Falvey is pegged for the top spot, the next steps will be identifying the hierarchy beneath him. We should receive more details to that end in the coming days and weeks. Stay tuned to Twins Daily for updates. What would you think of this hire? Click here to view the article
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Falvey is known to be one of the finalists for the position. TD contributor Jeremy Nygaard tweeted on Sunday that he hears Falvey is the likely choice. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports tweeted on Monday that Falvey is the "distinct favorite." Twins Daily has heard the same from sources within both the Twins and Indians organizations. With the end of the season less than a week away, an official announcement could come soon. UPDATE: Keith Law of ESPN.com has provided definitive confirmation: https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/780429674497339393 If Falvey is the guy, what would his hiring mean? Given the visionary nature of the position, his age and experience are noteworthy. He's only 33, and his highest rank has been assistant GM, which is current his job title with Cleveland. Before his promotion to that role a year ago, he was the organization's director of baseball operations for four seasons. Sound familiar? During his relatively short time in a major-league front office, Falvey has built a strong reputation. Passan noted in the past that the potential new Twins boss is "extremely well-regarded in (the) industry." Last summer, Passan wrote that Falvey "oversees the Indians’ whole pitching program." That program has produced a division winner this year, powered by a pitching staff ranked second in the American League in ERA. Given the Twins' desperate need to improve in run prevention, Falvey's area of expertise makes him a very logical candidate. While he would now oversee Minnesota's baseball operations, presumably there will be a collaborative decision-making approach within the front office. The Twins might borrow the same blueprint that the Indians put into place last year. At that point, they moved former general manager Chris Antonetti up to President of Baseball Ops while naming Mike Chernoff GM and Falvey his assistant. I wouldn't be surprised to see Minnesota employ a similar three-legged structure, and I also wouldn't be surprised if Rob Antony stayed on in one of those lesser roles so as to maintain some sense of continuity. If Falvey is pegged for the top spot, the next steps will be identifying the hierarchy beneath him. We should receive more details to that end in the coming days and weeks. Stay tuned to Twins Daily for updates. What would you think of this hire?
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On Sunday, the Twins lost their 100th game. It's a milestone that had previously been reached six times in the franchise's 115-year history, and only once since the team came to Minnesota. With a week to go, this season has already set a new standard for Minnesota baseball futility in my lifetime. So how come I'm not feeling entirely discouraged?In charting the ascent of a prospect core entrusted with restoring the organization's winning culture, we knew there would be growing pains. Unfortunately, they've been a little more severe than expected. But rather than focusing on the pain, let's focus on the growth. Miguel Sano has endured a tough year, from a variety of perspectives. There were the position switches, the adjustments from opposing pitchers, the injuries afflicting his hamstring, elbow and back. Some of his troubles were self-inflicted, as Sano came under fire for his work ethic and his occasional antics on the field. But at the end of the day, through all of that, what you have in Sano is a 23-year-old who has posted a .797 OPS and hit 24 homers in his first full season as a big-leaguer. He'll head into the offseason knowing what he needs to do to take his game to the next level. And, at least according to him, he'll have greater resolve to do so. Similarly, it's easy to find positivity within the tumult of Byron Buxton's season. His makeup and mental fortitude were touted almost as much as his athleticism while prospect publications lavished praise during his rise through the minors. Both were on display while he stumbled repeatedly in his first several tries against major-league pitching. While striking out at a catastrophic rate and failing to find any kind of traction for much of the season, Buxton was undoubtedly frustrated but it never really showed. When demoted to the minors, twice, he didn't let his dejection affect his play or focus. Now, during his fifth major-league stint here in September, the light bulb has finally flipped on. Since his latest call-up Buxton is batting .288 and slugging .625. He shows renewed confidence at the plate. His defense, as ever, is game-changing in center field. He's finally playing like he belongs. If he sticks, his impact over a full season – both in terms of run scoring and prevention – can hardly be overstated. Hitters throughout the lineup are inspiring optimism. Max Kepler hit his 17th home run on Sunday, a tremendous rookie showing for a developing young hitter whose highest total in the minors was 10. Jorge Polanco is a middle infielder that can credibly be written in as the No. 3 hitter, and has been on numerous occasions. Eddie Rosario posted an .812 OPS after returning from his short trip to Rochester. Brian Dozier has emerged as one of the game's biggest stars. On the pitching side, obviously, things aren't so rosy. But I take solace in this fact: it can't get worse. It really can't. This team will come close to matching – and might still surpass – the Twins record for runs allowed set in 1996. That record was set with an atrocious pitching staff, at the height of the steroid era and its offensive inflation. Jose Berrios has taken a beating, no doubt. We haven't seen too many pitchers struggle this much in their introductions to the majors, let alone talents of his caliber. But he's also 22, and fueled by relentless motivation to improve. At this point, I'm more eager to see how he comes back next year than worried he'll never find the strike zone. The stuff is clearly there. The same can be said for J.T. Chargois, who has settled into a nice groove after initially getting roughed up. Over his last 10 appearances, the fireballer has allowed one run and three hits. It is evident that he's a cut above the rest of the erratic hard-throwers that have come through the Twins bullpen in recent years. While the staff has delivered hideous results this year, there is a lot more ability than the numbers would suggest. And the Twins have the luxury of carrying some interesting assets like Tyler Duffey and Trevor May, who appear ill-suited for their current roles but boast undeniable upside. Getting the most out of such assets has been a crippling failure for the club this season, but new leadership will be in place moving forward. Based on the rumblings, it sounds like we might have a name announced before the season ends next Sunday. Then, the focus will turn toward the future. It's a future that will include more mature and experienced versions of Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Berrios, Chargois and more. It's a future that will be overseen by a rearranged front office, which will have at its disposal a premier trade chip in Dozier, a top pitching prospect in Stephen Gonsalves, and the No. 1 pick in next June's draft. This 2016 season has been a hell of a speed bump, but it doesn't feel like much more than that. Plenty of signs still point to a quality product in the not-so-distant future. The bad taste in our mouths after this rotten campaign will only make the final destination that much sweeter. Click here to view the article
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In charting the ascent of a prospect core entrusted with restoring the organization's winning culture, we knew there would be growing pains. Unfortunately, they've been a little more severe than expected. But rather than focusing on the pain, let's focus on the growth. Miguel Sano has endured a tough year, from a variety of perspectives. There were the position switches, the adjustments from opposing pitchers, the injuries afflicting his hamstring, elbow and back. Some of his troubles were self-inflicted, as Sano came under fire for his work ethic and his occasional antics on the field. But at the end of the day, through all of that, what you have in Sano is a 23-year-old who has posted a .797 OPS and hit 24 homers in his first full season as a big-leaguer. He'll head into the offseason knowing what he needs to do to take his game to the next level. And, at least according to him, he'll have greater resolve to do so. Similarly, it's easy to find positivity within the tumult of Byron Buxton's season. His makeup and mental fortitude were touted almost as much as his athleticism while prospect publications lavished praise during his rise through the minors. Both were on display while he stumbled repeatedly in his first several tries against major-league pitching. While striking out at a catastrophic rate and failing to find any kind of traction for much of the season, Buxton was undoubtedly frustrated but it never really showed. When demoted to the minors, twice, he didn't let his dejection affect his play or focus. Now, during his fifth major-league stint here in September, the light bulb has finally flipped on. Since his latest call-up Buxton is batting .288 and slugging .625. He shows renewed confidence at the plate. His defense, as ever, is game-changing in center field. He's finally playing like he belongs. If he sticks, his impact over a full season – both in terms of run scoring and prevention – can hardly be overstated. Hitters throughout the lineup are inspiring optimism. Max Kepler hit his 17th home run on Sunday, a tremendous rookie showing for a developing young hitter whose highest total in the minors was 10. Jorge Polanco is a middle infielder that can credibly be written in as the No. 3 hitter, and has been on numerous occasions. Eddie Rosario posted an .812 OPS after returning from his short trip to Rochester. Brian Dozier has emerged as one of the game's biggest stars. On the pitching side, obviously, things aren't so rosy. But I take solace in this fact: it can't get worse. It really can't. This team will come close to matching – and might still surpass – the Twins record for runs allowed set in 1996. That record was set with an atrocious pitching staff, at the height of the steroid era and its offensive inflation. Jose Berrios has taken a beating, no doubt. We haven't seen too many pitchers struggle this much in their introductions to the majors, let alone talents of his caliber. But he's also 22, and fueled by relentless motivation to improve. At this point, I'm more eager to see how he comes back next year than worried he'll never find the strike zone. The stuff is clearly there. The same can be said for J.T. Chargois, who has settled into a nice groove after initially getting roughed up. Over his last 10 appearances, the fireballer has allowed one run and three hits. It is evident that he's a cut above the rest of the erratic hard-throwers that have come through the Twins bullpen in recent years. While the staff has delivered hideous results this year, there is a lot more ability than the numbers would suggest. And the Twins have the luxury of carrying some interesting assets like Tyler Duffey and Trevor May, who appear ill-suited for their current roles but boast undeniable upside. Getting the most out of such assets has been a crippling failure for the club this season, but new leadership will be in place moving forward. Based on the rumblings, it sounds like we might have a name announced before the season ends next Sunday. Then, the focus will turn toward the future. It's a future that will include more mature and experienced versions of Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Berrios, Chargois and more. It's a future that will be overseen by a rearranged front office, which will have at its disposal a premier trade chip in Dozier, a top pitching prospect in Stephen Gonsalves, and the No. 1 pick in next June's draft. This 2016 season has been a hell of a speed bump, but it doesn't feel like much more than that. Plenty of signs still point to a quality product in the not-so-distant future. The bad taste in our mouths after this rotten campaign will only make the final destination that much sweeter.
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Article: What To Do With Michael Tonkin
Nick Nelson replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Being young, cheap and having been effective in brief cameos with the Twins the prior three seasons, it was an easy choice. You would think so. But based on what I heard when I was down there in March, the team was very close to letting him go. If they had kept Duffey in the rotation and sent Nolasco to the bullpen, as they were apparently planning until the last week, Tonkin would've been gone. I think you hit the nail on the head with the workload numbers. Tonkin has been a dominant closer in the minors and now he's been arbitrarily thrown into a long relief role, which is completely foreign to him. The change in usage takes a toll in individual appearances (as your stats illustrate) and even more so over time. He's clearly got nothing left at this point in the season and it's baffling that they even continue to use him. They'll let him go, and he'll join another team that uses him in the right way and turns him into a nice setup man. Painfully predictable. -
Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That's a perfectly reasonable standpoint. But unfortunately what's done is done, and diving back into a ground-up rebuild at this point is illogical and unrealistic.- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Because you are arguing from the incredibly stubborn position that the Twins will be a 70-win team next year, there's really no point in continuing down this path with you. You and others may think it's the right approach to simply give up on 2017 before it starts but many others don't. And I can guarantee you with 100 percent confidence that the Twins will not be operating with that mindset. So these arguments are really, really pointless. I'm done wasting my time with it.- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Are you under the impression that a good exec has a 100% hit rate on prospect acquisitions, especially when trading a good-not-great asset like Ervin? I think you're going to be sorely disappointed by anyone they wind up with...- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I am honestly baffled that you're confused by this. Santana is the only starter on the team with an ERA+ above 83. Dozier is one good hitter among many in the lineup.- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That's fine. I also didn't mention Gonsalves, Mejia, Hughes, May or any FA acquisitions/trade returns for Dozier etc. To act like they're doomed to anything approximating the same historically bad outcome as this year is nothing but blind pessimism. It boggles my mind that people are treating a statement like "people could pitch to their career norms" as some kind of fantasy scenario.- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If Santana, Gibson and Santiago perform up to their career norms, while Berrios pitches remotely well, it's not that difficult to envision this being a decent, albeit below average rotation. Especially if you shore up the defense and add a couple more upside arms. Not sure why that concept is so absurd to a few folks around here. No one is advocating going all-in on a World Series in 2017. But saying, "screw it we have no chance let's just get more prospects" is flat-out silly to me. All you're doing is giving up on the present and putting more faulty hope into the distant future on the basis of young pitching prospects, which are basically the most volatile asset in the game. I'm not OK with the idea of wasting years of these good young hitters' careers while not bothering to make an effort to compete. What happens if the prospects you get back for Santana and Dozier fail to pan? Start over? Another rebuild? Submit yourself to a 15-year swoon? No thanks.- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
He literally said there is "no conceivable path" to a rotation capable of helping this team contend for a playoff spot. In what way was my response a straw man, Mike?- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
People were saying the same thing after the 2014 season, then they shaved off 80 runs and came within a few games of the playoffs. But yeah, totally impossible. Look, this is not a good pitching staff. But it's been flukishly bad. If the Twins had allowed the same number of runs as the 2nd-worst run prevention team (Texas) they would be a .500 team by Pythag W/L.- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Good thing this year's performances completely dictate and predict exactly what will happen next year! It's nice to have the assurance that the Santiago we've seen the last few weeks is the real version and not the guy from the last 5 years. And of course there's no chance a 22-year-old rookie is going to improve in any regard. Gibson had a bad year so he might as well just quit and try something else.- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I've seen some people suggest that the Twins should drop Santiago, but then go find a one-year plug in free agency. Anyone who believes they're going to find a better starter on a more favorable deal in FA is kidding themselves.- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Good comments so far. I'll just say a couple of things: 1) Not a fan of the "let them compete in spring training approach." The Twins have made bad roster decisions too many times in the past by making judgments on the basis of specious data gathered over a month of exhibition games. They need a firm plan going into camp, which was the idea behind this thought exercise. 2) Giving up on players like Gibson after one bad year is how teams make huge mistakes that haunt them down the line. It's short-sighted and reactionary. He's a talented pitcher who had a bad season.- 254 replies
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The first and most important objective for any incoming baseball ops chief, in terms of roster construction, will be assembling a rotation for next season that gives the Twins a chance to compete. This year's unit failed miserably in that regard. When the Twins inevitably drop their 100th game, they'll become the highest-scoring team with triple-digit losses of the last 10 years at least.Obviously, the new top decision-maker will want to pursue every avenue for improving Minnesota's historically bad starting corps. But that won't involve rebuilding from the ground up. There are usable assets on hand and the Twins will certainly give some of them an opportunity to rebound. The question is which ones should be penciled in as members of the 2017 rotation, and which should be heading into spring training on the outside looking in, needing to earn their way back. This determination will have a major impact on how the front office approaches the offseason. I would say that the following players will -- and in my estimation, probably should -- be viewed as locks: Ervin Santana: I presume no one's going to argue with this one. Santana is on his way to posting the lowest ERA for a Twins starter since that other Santana guy left. Some might suggest he should be traded over the winter, and that's a discussion for another time, but if he's here, Erv is the Opening Day starter (again) in 2017. Kyle Gibson: I suspect that some will disagree with this. Undeniably, Gibson has had an awful season. But he's just not a guy you give up on. He's 29, he was their best starter a year ago, and he'll be fairly inexpensive in his first year of arbitration. The ability is there but for whatever reason Gibson has been unable to straighten himself out this season. He looks like someone who would benefit greatly from a new coaching voice. Jose Berrios: On the one hand, he has done nothing to earn a guaranteed spot with his rocky performance as a rookie. But on the other hand, it makes no sense to send Berrios back to the minors. He has nothing left to accomplish there. He needs to sink or swim in the rotation from Day One next year. He'll have the next few months to focus on everything he needs to improve, and something tells me there will be no shortage of hard work put forth on that front. Hector Santiago: Since his dreadful opening stretch with the new club, Santiago has gone back to his usual routine, delivering solid if unspectacular starts each fifth day. He'll be 29 and on a one-year deal through arbitration, so there isn't much risk. If he's healthy and decent, he eats innings and fills a spot at the back of the rotation. If he's not good, the Twins can cut him loose and try another option. I only refer to him as a lock because that is what he'll be once the team commits to paying him close to $10 million for next year. With those four in place, the Twins will have one wide-open spot to fill. They could look to address it externally, but there will be several options on hand. Let's run through some of those candidates: Phil Hughes: Coming off thoracic outlet surgery, I severely doubt that he'll be healthy and strong enough to be an MLB starter next April. Let's not forget that he was throwing in the 80s and fatiguing in the fifth inning by the time he finally submitted to his shoulder issues. Although he'll be nine months removed from surgery by the start of next season, I'd rather see him ramp up and get sharp in the minors or extended spring before being inserted back into the big-league rotation. Trevor May: The Twins have declared that they intend to return May to a starting role, which is good news. But he hasn't started a game since last August. After altering his routine and approach to that of a reliever, he'll now need to switch back. There is no assurance he'll be able to complete that process in camp, and the Twins would be hard-pressed to rely upon it. He will have one option remaining if they want to start him in Triple-A as a go-to reinforcement. Tyler Duffey: My belief is that Duffey needs to swap roles with May and head to the bullpen. He was a dominant collegiate closer before the Twins drafted him, and his two-pitch combo is tailor-made for shorter stints. Even if the team doesn't go that route, I have to imagine that his brutal results this year have eliminated him from any kind of consideration to open 2017 in the rotation, regardless of how he looks in March. Adalberto Mejia: Acquired from San Francisco at the deadline, he had a nice year in Triple-A and briefly debuted for the Twins last month. Mejia is bordering on big-league ready but I suspect that he'll begin at Rochester again next year. It's tough to slot a guy with so little experience into a rotation that desperately needs to improve, especially with Berrios already in that mix. There are a few other prospects that could factor into this conversation, as well as Tommy Milone if he's kept around (doubtful). But these are the names I would have listed as legitimate options. Obviously, it will be helpful to add more depth and upside to this group, and that will be a priority during the coming offseason. What are your thoughts? Who should be penciled in? If you're the GM, how many starters are you set on acquiring this winter? Click here to view the article
- 254 replies
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- kyle gibson
- jose berrios
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Obviously, the new top decision-maker will want to pursue every avenue for improving Minnesota's historically bad starting corps. But that won't involve rebuilding from the ground up. There are usable assets on hand and the Twins will certainly give some of them an opportunity to rebound. The question is which ones should be penciled in as members of the 2017 rotation, and which should be heading into spring training on the outside looking in, needing to earn their way back. This determination will have a major impact on how the front office approaches the offseason. I would say that the following players will -- and in my estimation, probably should -- be viewed as locks: Ervin Santana: I presume no one's going to argue with this one. Santana is on his way to posting the lowest ERA for a Twins starter since that other Santana guy left. Some might suggest he should be traded over the winter, and that's a discussion for another time, but if he's here, Erv is the Opening Day starter (again) in 2017. Kyle Gibson: I suspect that some will disagree with this. Undeniably, Gibson has had an awful season. But he's just not a guy you give up on. He's 29, he was their best starter a year ago, and he'll be fairly inexpensive in his first year of arbitration. The ability is there but for whatever reason Gibson has been unable to straighten himself out this season. He looks like someone who would benefit greatly from a new coaching voice. Jose Berrios: On the one hand, he has done nothing to earn a guaranteed spot with his rocky performance as a rookie. But on the other hand, it makes no sense to send Berrios back to the minors. He has nothing left to accomplish there. He needs to sink or swim in the rotation from Day One next year. He'll have the next few months to focus on everything he needs to improve, and something tells me there will be no shortage of hard work put forth on that front. Hector Santiago: Since his dreadful opening stretch with the new club, Santiago has gone back to his usual routine, delivering solid if unspectacular starts each fifth day. He'll be 29 and on a one-year deal through arbitration, so there isn't much risk. If he's healthy and decent, he eats innings and fills a spot at the back of the rotation. If he's not good, the Twins can cut him loose and try another option. I only refer to him as a lock because that is what he'll be once the team commits to paying him close to $10 million for next year. With those four in place, the Twins will have one wide-open spot to fill. They could look to address it externally, but there will be several options on hand. Let's run through some of those candidates: Phil Hughes: Coming off thoracic outlet surgery, I severely doubt that he'll be healthy and strong enough to be an MLB starter next April. Let's not forget that he was throwing in the 80s and fatiguing in the fifth inning by the time he finally submitted to his shoulder issues. Although he'll be nine months removed from surgery by the start of next season, I'd rather see him ramp up and get sharp in the minors or extended spring before being inserted back into the big-league rotation. Trevor May: The Twins have declared that they intend to return May to a starting role, which is good news. But he hasn't started a game since last August. After altering his routine and approach to that of a reliever, he'll now need to switch back. There is no assurance he'll be able to complete that process in camp, and the Twins would be hard-pressed to rely upon it. He will have one option remaining if they want to start him in Triple-A as a go-to reinforcement. Tyler Duffey: My belief is that Duffey needs to swap roles with May and head to the bullpen. He was a dominant collegiate closer before the Twins drafted him, and his two-pitch combo is tailor-made for shorter stints. Even if the team doesn't go that route, I have to imagine that his brutal results this year have eliminated him from any kind of consideration to open 2017 in the rotation, regardless of how he looks in March. Adalberto Mejia: Acquired from San Francisco at the deadline, he had a nice year in Triple-A and briefly debuted for the Twins last month. Mejia is bordering on big-league ready but I suspect that he'll begin at Rochester again next year. It's tough to slot a guy with so little experience into a rotation that desperately needs to improve, especially with Berrios already in that mix. There are a few other prospects that could factor into this conversation, as well as Tommy Milone if he's kept around (doubtful). But these are the names I would have listed as legitimate options. Obviously, it will be helpful to add more depth and upside to this group, and that will be a priority during the coming offseason. What are your thoughts? Who should be penciled in? If you're the GM, how many starters are you set on acquiring this winter?
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During their reign over the American League Central, from 2002 through 2010, the Minnesota Twins never once allowed more runs than the league average. A far cry from their current state, to say the least.The Twins are on their way to allowing the most runs of any American League team, for the second time in three years. They've been in the bottom three every season since 2011, with the exception of last year when they were ninth. So, things have taken a turn. The franchise appeared to be emerging from its run prevention rut last year but instead, the worst was yet to come. Entering play Thursday, the Twins had allowed 128 more runs than the Rangers. That's 50 more than the gap between between No. 14 Texas and No.1 Cleveland. It's a mess made possible by a pitching staff that has already, with two weeks left to go, allowed more home runs than any Twins staff since the turn of the century, and a defense that has converted the lowest percentage of balls in play into outs of any MLB club. It's been a team effort. As a result, the Twins may lose 100 games despite an offense that's on pace to score 750 runs. There have been seven 100-loss teams since 2010, the last time Minnesota made the playoffs, and none scored more than 615 runs. Obviously, the reimagined front office needs to do whatever they can to prevent anything like this from happening again. The lineup isn't going to slow down. But with the Twins being so far behind the pack on the other side, how can they make up massive ground in a hurry? How can they move back toward the era in which they never failed to field an above-average staff? I thought it might be instructive to take a look back at those years. Where have the Twins strayed? What lessons, if any, might a new baseball ops chief be wise to absorb while incorporating his or her own fresh philosophies? Here were some signatures of those effective 2000s pitching units: 1: Health Sure, those groups had some injuries here and there. That's inescapable. But when you look back, Johan Santana was remarkably durable during his time in Minnesota, and Joe Nathan basically never got hurt until his Tommy John surgery. It sure helps to keep your No. 1 starter and closer healthy for such lengths of time. For me, the leading storylines when looking back at this year's pitching woes will be the ruined shoulders of both Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins. The organization sought to build around these two in a similar fashion as they did with the aforementioned duo. Hughes' performance in 2014 was, arguably, the closest approximation to 'ace-like' for a Twins starter since Santana's departure. Perkins, like Nathan before him, moved into the league's elite tier of closers almost instantly after assuming the role ahead of his 30th birthday. Terry Ryan made long-term commitments to Hughes and Perkins, positioning them as building blocks for the construction of his staffs. And unfortunately, both have descended essentially into worst-case scenarios with their arms. Shoulder injuries are tough, and Santana himself is evidence enough of that. Could Ryan have foreseen this outcome? Maybe last year, but by then both hurlers were entrenched as cornerstones. Could the trainers have prevented it? Doubtful. In this regard, the former GM got dealt a bum hand, and it's a big part of why he's now the former GM. 2: Hitting Lotto Tickets Santana and Francisco Liriano were the two most electric starters to come through the system during those years, and Ryan managed to stumble upon both, more or less, through serendipitous happenstance. Santana was a Rule 5 pick, foolishly discarded by two organizations. Liriano was a toss-in from the Giants in the A.J. Pierzynski trade. TR capitalized on both opportunities and hit big. In the years since, he had no shortage of Rule 5 pick-ups or trades for fringey pitchers, but the big hits evaporated. Alex Meyer and Trevor May weren't so different as prospects from Liriano; big arms with questions surrounding control and/or mechanics. But the inability of either to even define a role in the majors has been a big part of the failure to launch on the pitching front. This brings us to our next item. 3: Developing Control When the Twins acquired Johan, he could hardly find the zone. Tethered to him as a Rule 5 pick, they endured a rookie season in 2000 that saw him issue 54 walks in 86 innings. They helped him find his way, as they did with many others. The Twins both sought out and developed pitchers who could hammer the zone. Sure, it was a specialty of pitching coach Rick Anderson, but he didn't get moldable strike-throwers like Brad Radke and Carlos Silva and Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn by accident. The team actively sought out such profiles, through trades and the draft, and converted them into big-leaguers who succeeded mainly by throwing the ball to the right spot. It's hard to figure where this process has gone amiss. There are still signs that prospects are receiving effective instruction. Jose Berrios had outstanding walk rates throughout the minors. J.T. Chargois had dramatically improved his control by the time he reached Triple-A. But something's not clicking when they make the jump. The Twins actually rank near the top of the league in walk rate overall – one of their lone strengths – but too many of the most important guys aren't figuring it out. It doesn't reflect well on Neil Allen, whose job is undoubtedly in jeopardy. When the Twins assembled a coaching staff for Paul Molitor, they took a gamble on a pitching coach with no major-league experience. There is no evidence that it's paying off. Too many players are failing to grow, or worse regressing, under his watch. Perhaps the Twins would be well served to replace him with a more experienced alternative, who better balances Molitor's lack of experience in the area. Dare I say they should seek a coach who instills an Anderson-esque "throw it over the plate at all costs" mentality? I do believe all of this pales in comparison to one final element. 4: Defense During the decade where "The Twins Way" was forged and worshipped, defense was always a foundational staple. It's what made 'pitch to contact' work. Ryan coveted glove-first players, to the extent that he ran out Doug Mientkiewicz as a longtime regular at first, made Juan Castro an Opening Day shortstop, and basically eschewed the DH position for many years. Playing defense – from making plays to executing basic fundamentals – has been a struggle for this current group. And while that's not a simple problem to solve, it's one that must be attacked from all angles during the offseason. Whether it's personnel, coaching or placement, everything must be critically evaluated. What steps would you take toward reversing the Twins' run prevention woes? What lessons from the past would you apply to the future? Click here to view the article
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The Twins are on their way to allowing the most runs of any American League team, for the second time in three years. They've been in the bottom three every season since 2011, with the exception of last year when they were ninth. So, things have taken a turn. The franchise appeared to be emerging from its run prevention rut last year but instead, the worst was yet to come. Entering play Thursday, the Twins had allowed 128 more runs than the Rangers. That's 50 more than the gap between between No. 14 Texas and No.1 Cleveland. It's a mess made possible by a pitching staff that has already, with two weeks left to go, allowed more home runs than any Twins staff since the turn of the century, and a defense that has converted the lowest percentage of balls in play into outs of any MLB club. It's been a team effort. As a result, the Twins may lose 100 games despite an offense that's on pace to score 750 runs. There have been seven 100-loss teams since 2010, the last time Minnesota made the playoffs, and none scored more than 615 runs. Obviously, the reimagined front office needs to do whatever they can to prevent anything like this from happening again. The lineup isn't going to slow down. But with the Twins being so far behind the pack on the other side, how can they make up massive ground in a hurry? How can they move back toward the era in which they never failed to field an above-average staff? I thought it might be instructive to take a look back at those years. Where have the Twins strayed? What lessons, if any, might a new baseball ops chief be wise to absorb while incorporating his or her own fresh philosophies? Here were some signatures of those effective 2000s pitching units: 1: Health Sure, those groups had some injuries here and there. That's inescapable. But when you look back, Johan Santana was remarkably durable during his time in Minnesota, and Joe Nathan basically never got hurt until his Tommy John surgery. It sure helps to keep your No. 1 starter and closer healthy for such lengths of time. For me, the leading storylines when looking back at this year's pitching woes will be the ruined shoulders of both Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins. The organization sought to build around these two in a similar fashion as they did with the aforementioned duo. Hughes' performance in 2014 was, arguably, the closest approximation to 'ace-like' for a Twins starter since Santana's departure. Perkins, like Nathan before him, moved into the league's elite tier of closers almost instantly after assuming the role ahead of his 30th birthday. Terry Ryan made long-term commitments to Hughes and Perkins, positioning them as building blocks for the construction of his staffs. And unfortunately, both have descended essentially into worst-case scenarios with their arms. Shoulder injuries are tough, and Santana himself is evidence enough of that. Could Ryan have foreseen this outcome? Maybe last year, but by then both hurlers were entrenched as cornerstones. Could the trainers have prevented it? Doubtful. In this regard, the former GM got dealt a bum hand, and it's a big part of why he's now the former GM. 2: Hitting Lotto Tickets Santana and Francisco Liriano were the two most electric starters to come through the system during those years, and Ryan managed to stumble upon both, more or less, through serendipitous happenstance. Santana was a Rule 5 pick, foolishly discarded by two organizations. Liriano was a toss-in from the Giants in the A.J. Pierzynski trade. TR capitalized on both opportunities and hit big. In the years since, he had no shortage of Rule 5 pick-ups or trades for fringey pitchers, but the big hits evaporated. Alex Meyer and Trevor May weren't so different as prospects from Liriano; big arms with questions surrounding control and/or mechanics. But the inability of either to even define a role in the majors has been a big part of the failure to launch on the pitching front. This brings us to our next item. 3: Developing Control When the Twins acquired Johan, he could hardly find the zone. Tethered to him as a Rule 5 pick, they endured a rookie season in 2000 that saw him issue 54 walks in 86 innings. They helped him find his way, as they did with many others. The Twins both sought out and developed pitchers who could hammer the zone. Sure, it was a specialty of pitching coach Rick Anderson, but he didn't get moldable strike-throwers like Brad Radke and Carlos Silva and Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn by accident. The team actively sought out such profiles, through trades and the draft, and converted them into big-leaguers who succeeded mainly by throwing the ball to the right spot. It's hard to figure where this process has gone amiss. There are still signs that prospects are receiving effective instruction. Jose Berrios had outstanding walk rates throughout the minors. J.T. Chargois had dramatically improved his control by the time he reached Triple-A. But something's not clicking when they make the jump. The Twins actually rank near the top of the league in walk rate overall – one of their lone strengths – but too many of the most important guys aren't figuring it out. It doesn't reflect well on Neil Allen, whose job is undoubtedly in jeopardy. When the Twins assembled a coaching staff for Paul Molitor, they took a gamble on a pitching coach with no major-league experience. There is no evidence that it's paying off. Too many players are failing to grow, or worse regressing, under his watch. Perhaps the Twins would be well served to replace him with a more experienced alternative, who better balances Molitor's lack of experience in the area. Dare I say they should seek a coach who instills an Anderson-esque "throw it over the plate at all costs" mentality? I do believe all of this pales in comparison to one final element. 4: Defense During the decade where "The Twins Way" was forged and worshipped, defense was always a foundational staple. It's what made 'pitch to contact' work. Ryan coveted glove-first players, to the extent that he ran out Doug Mientkiewicz as a longtime regular at first, made Juan Castro an Opening Day shortstop, and basically eschewed the DH position for many years. Playing defense – from making plays to executing basic fundamentals – has been a struggle for this current group. And while that's not a simple problem to solve, it's one that must be attacked from all angles during the offseason. Whether it's personnel, coaching or placement, everything must be critically evaluated. What steps would you take toward reversing the Twins' run prevention woes? What lessons from the past would you apply to the future?
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In their search for new leadership in the baseball operations department, we don't yet know if the Twins will ultimately settle on the right candidate. In fact, it may take years to determine that. We can say with some confidence, however, that they're looking in the right places.Last week, national MLB reporter Jon Morosi named Alex Anthopoulos as a "confirmed candidate" for Minnesota's new baseball ops chief position. A few days later, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press followed up with a report that Anthopoulos had taken his name out of the hat. While it's disappointing that the Twins won't be able to further pursue Anthopoulos, the fact that he was a legitimate consideration is encouraging. He is exactly the type of person that many fans would like to see tabbed for this vital role. Formerly the general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays, Anthopoulos is an outsider with background in both scouting and analytics. He has historically had an active and aggressive style when it comes to making moves and building rosters. Under his watch, the Blue Jays developed into an AL East powerhouse. They reached the postseason last year for the first time in two decades and are aiming for a return this year with a roster primarily crafted by Anthopolous. Alas, he won't be coming aboard. But we continue to see intriguing names pop up in the search for a top baseball exec. On Monday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Twins had formally requested permission to interview Jason McLeod, who serves under Theo Epstein in the Chicago Cubs front office. The Cubs, owners of baseball's best record, boast one of the premier rosters and systems in the game. Their organization is a natural choice to scour for executive talent. McLeod, in particular, is a compelling name. As Berardino notes, he previously served as Epstein's scouting director in Boston, and is credited with drafting a number of high-profile stars such as Dustin Pedroia, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber. Given Minnesota's struggles converting high draft picks into contributors lately, McLeod's track record in this regard is appealing. Another candidate that the Twins appear to be considering, according to Jon Heyman, is J.J. Piccolo. The 45-year-old currently serves as assistant GM in charge of scouting and player development for the Kansas City Royals. The Royals, like the Cubs, are a franchise worth emulating. Over the past 10 years, they have climbed from being AL Central bottom-feeders to two-time league champs, and that's exactly the type of path the Twins would like to follow (albeit in a shorter timeframe). Piccolo originally came up as a scout in the Braves system before spending the past decade with the Royals. He was at one point last year considered a finalist for the Phillies GM gig before Matt Klentak ended up being chosen. Given his role in constructing an elite defensive club in Kansas City, as well as his familiarity with the division (which means he likely also has better-than-average familiarity with the Twins and their personnel), Piccolo looks like a logical guy to vet. McLeod and Piccolo both are highly respected front office execs that many around the game view as GM-in-waiting types. Both also have few, if any, ties to the Twins organization, meaning they would bring the wholly fresh perspective that so many are yearning for in a new hire. One tricky thing that the Twins must balance is the urgency to fill their opening with the desire to interview individuals who remain focused on the postseason. This isn't so much of an issue with Piccolo, whose Royals are likely to miss the playoffs for the first time in three years. But it is with McLeod, whose Cubs are poised for a deep October run. Waiting out a guy like McLeod means postponing any serious offseason planning that he would spearhead, and also means delaying the process of finding a new GM, which will be task No. 1 for whoever takes over the baseball ops unit. With a decision carrying this much gravity, obviously the Twins and assisting search firm Korn Ferry need to take their time and ensure they get the best person for the job. But then, the team is looking ahead to a winter filled with critical choices that require proactive thinking. There's a tenuous timeline at play with the Hot Stove market firing up almost immediately after the World Series concludes. That said, it sounds as though the Twins are already deeply immersed in the task. They have reportedly conducted interviews with multiple candidates, and seeing the club publicly connected to coveted names like McLeod and Piccolo is a positive omen. So, too, is their preference for "someone who's more on the analytical side," per a Berardino source. Stay tuned to Twins Daily in the coming weeks and we'll keep you posted up-to-the-minute on every development that emerges as the team narrows its search. Click here to view the article
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Last week, national MLB reporter Jon Morosi named Alex Anthopoulos as a "confirmed candidate" for Minnesota's new baseball ops chief position. A few days later, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press followed up with a report that Anthopoulos had taken his name out of the hat. While it's disappointing that the Twins won't be able to further pursue Anthopoulos, the fact that he was a legitimate consideration is encouraging. He is exactly the type of person that many fans would like to see tabbed for this vital role. Formerly the general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays, Anthopoulos is an outsider with background in both scouting and analytics. He has historically had an active and aggressive style when it comes to making moves and building rosters. Under his watch, the Blue Jays developed into an AL East powerhouse. They reached the postseason last year for the first time in two decades and are aiming for a return this year with a roster primarily crafted by Anthopolous. Alas, he won't be coming aboard. But we continue to see intriguing names pop up in the search for a top baseball exec. On Monday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Twins had formally requested permission to interview Jason McLeod, who serves under Theo Epstein in the Chicago Cubs front office. The Cubs, owners of baseball's best record, boast one of the premier rosters and systems in the game. Their organization is a natural choice to scour for executive talent. McLeod, in particular, is a compelling name. As Berardino notes, he previously served as Epstein's scouting director in Boston, and is credited with drafting a number of high-profile stars such as Dustin Pedroia, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber. Given Minnesota's struggles converting high draft picks into contributors lately, McLeod's track record in this regard is appealing. Another candidate that the Twins appear to be considering, according to Jon Heyman, is J.J. Piccolo. The 45-year-old currently serves as assistant GM in charge of scouting and player development for the Kansas City Royals. The Royals, like the Cubs, are a franchise worth emulating. Over the past 10 years, they have climbed from being AL Central bottom-feeders to two-time league champs, and that's exactly the type of path the Twins would like to follow (albeit in a shorter timeframe). Piccolo originally came up as a scout in the Braves system before spending the past decade with the Royals. He was at one point last year considered a finalist for the Phillies GM gig before Matt Klentak ended up being chosen. Given his role in constructing an elite defensive club in Kansas City, as well as his familiarity with the division (which means he likely also has better-than-average familiarity with the Twins and their personnel), Piccolo looks like a logical guy to vet. McLeod and Piccolo both are highly respected front office execs that many around the game view as GM-in-waiting types. Both also have few, if any, ties to the Twins organization, meaning they would bring the wholly fresh perspective that so many are yearning for in a new hire. One tricky thing that the Twins must balance is the urgency to fill their opening with the desire to interview individuals who remain focused on the postseason. This isn't so much of an issue with Piccolo, whose Royals are likely to miss the playoffs for the first time in three years. But it is with McLeod, whose Cubs are poised for a deep October run. Waiting out a guy like McLeod means postponing any serious offseason planning that he would spearhead, and also means delaying the process of finding a new GM, which will be task No. 1 for whoever takes over the baseball ops unit. With a decision carrying this much gravity, obviously the Twins and assisting search firm Korn Ferry need to take their time and ensure they get the best person for the job. But then, the team is looking ahead to a winter filled with critical choices that require proactive thinking. There's a tenuous timeline at play with the Hot Stove market firing up almost immediately after the World Series concludes. That said, it sounds as though the Twins are already deeply immersed in the task. They have reportedly conducted interviews with multiple candidates, and seeing the club publicly connected to coveted names like McLeod and Piccolo is a positive omen. So, too, is their preference for "someone who's more on the analytical side," per a Berardino source. Stay tuned to Twins Daily in the coming weeks and we'll keep you posted up-to-the-minute on every development that emerges as the team narrows its search.
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Article: Unanswered Questions
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Partial season defensive metrics are virtually meaningless. Watching him. Listening to other, smarter people analyze him. Looking at the way the organization itself has handled him. I'm not saying he's a complete mess but the majority of starting MLB shortstops are actually stand-out defenders and he's just ok.- 54 replies
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We're at a stage in this lost season where game outcomes have ceased to matter. The results, at this point, are much less important than the process. One thing that's been particularly interesting to follow here in September is the way Paul Molitor is divvying up playing time in his infield. What conclusions can we draw from the manager's trends?Last week, owner Jim Pohlad double down on his vote of confidence, reiterating that the plan is for Molitor to return next season. It's the final leg of a three-year contract, so the skipper undoubtedly knows the stakes he'll be facing if he wants to keep doing this. These final weeks of the current season provide a prime opportunity to experiment, and evaluate players who will mostly be returning in 2017. In this respect, Molitor's usage of several infielders has been striking. The most noteworthy trend, of course, has been Jorge Polanco's entrenchment at shortstop. The 23-year-old's nod there on Sunday marked his fifth in a row, and his 22nd start at the position in the last 25 games. Prior to being called up for good at the end of July, Polanco had started a total of zero games at short this year with Rochester. It was the continuation of a trend. He had started seeing more and more time at second late last year with the Red Wings, and played that position almost exclusively in the Dominican Winter League. By all appearances, the Twins had given up on Polanco as a shortstop. When you watch him now, it isn't all that hard to see why. While he's capable of making most of the plays, he isn't the kind of flashy cannon-armed defender that you want at the crux of your infield. Yet, Molitor keeps looking at him there, at the expense of all other positions. Polanco hasn't drawn a start anywhere else in nearly a month. Meanwhile, Eduardo Escobar has fallen back into limbo. He rarely plays short anymore, instead seeing the majority of his sporadic starts at third. Escobar has had a poor but not disastrous season, and he certainly ought to be part of the team's plans going forward. He's still only 27, he's been a solidly average hitter over the last three years, and he'll command less than $5 million through arbitration in 2017. In the past, Molitor has liked Escobar enough to plug him in all over the field. Last year that even included 27 starts in left and seven at DH. Now, with nothing really standing in Escobar's way, he has been relegated to a utility role. Maybe the manager has finally soured on him, but it seems rather unwarranted. No position has seen more constant turnover than third base. Rarely has the same name been written next to 3B on the lineup card on consecutive days. Trevor Plouffe alternated steadily between the infield corners when he was healthy. Escobar has been at third every so often. James Beresford got his first big-league start there on Saturday. And as for Miguel Sano? Well, his usage may be the most perplexing of anyone on the club. He has only started back-to-back games at third twice since the beginning of August, and never three in a row during that span. Elbow soreness could contribute to this, although he still plays there often enough to dispel the notion that there's a great deal of concern surrounding his health. Sano has not looked good defensively but he has also surely developed rust from barely playing third base in the last 15 months. There is no better opportunity to let him shake off that rust in game situations than trivial September contests but Molitor evidently lacks interest in doing so. What to make of the manager's decisions as far as situating his infields? Personally, I have a hard time finding rhyme or reason when it comes to his deployments on the left side. How would you prefer to see infield playing time shake out in the final weeks? Click here to view the article
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- jorge polanco
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Last week, owner Jim Pohlad double down on his vote of confidence, reiterating that the plan is for Molitor to return next season. It's the final leg of a three-year contract, so the skipper undoubtedly knows the stakes he'll be facing if he wants to keep doing this. These final weeks of the current season provide a prime opportunity to experiment, and evaluate players who will mostly be returning in 2017. In this respect, Molitor's usage of several infielders has been striking. The most noteworthy trend, of course, has been Jorge Polanco's entrenchment at shortstop. The 23-year-old's nod there on Sunday marked his fifth in a row, and his 22nd start at the position in the last 25 games. Prior to being called up for good at the end of July, Polanco had started a total of zero games at short this year with Rochester. It was the continuation of a trend. He had started seeing more and more time at second late last year with the Red Wings, and played that position almost exclusively in the Dominican Winter League. By all appearances, the Twins had given up on Polanco as a shortstop. When you watch him now, it isn't all that hard to see why. While he's capable of making most of the plays, he isn't the kind of flashy cannon-armed defender that you want at the crux of your infield. Yet, Molitor keeps looking at him there, at the expense of all other positions. Polanco hasn't drawn a start anywhere else in nearly a month. Meanwhile, Eduardo Escobar has fallen back into limbo. He rarely plays short anymore, instead seeing the majority of his sporadic starts at third. Escobar has had a poor but not disastrous season, and he certainly ought to be part of the team's plans going forward. He's still only 27, he's been a solidly average hitter over the last three years, and he'll command less than $5 million through arbitration in 2017. In the past, Molitor has liked Escobar enough to plug him in all over the field. Last year that even included 27 starts in left and seven at DH. Now, with nothing really standing in Escobar's way, he has been relegated to a utility role. Maybe the manager has finally soured on him, but it seems rather unwarranted. No position has seen more constant turnover than third base. Rarely has the same name been written next to 3B on the lineup card on consecutive days. Trevor Plouffe alternated steadily between the infield corners when he was healthy. Escobar has been at third every so often. James Beresford got his first big-league start there on Saturday. And as for Miguel Sano? Well, his usage may be the most perplexing of anyone on the club. He has only started back-to-back games at third twice since the beginning of August, and never three in a row during that span. Elbow soreness could contribute to this, although he still plays there often enough to dispel the notion that there's a great deal of concern surrounding his health. Sano has not looked good defensively but he has also surely developed rust from barely playing third base in the last 15 months. There is no better opportunity to let him shake off that rust in game situations than trivial September contests but Molitor evidently lacks interest in doing so. What to make of the manager's decisions as far as situating his infields? Personally, I have a hard time finding rhyme or reason when it comes to his deployments on the left side. How would you prefer to see infield playing time shake out in the final weeks?
- 61 comments
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- jorge polanco
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