Nick Nelson

Signing free agents to multi-year contracts, and trading prospects you view as non-essential for long-term upgrades, is very much in line with the objective of building a sustained winner. Treading water and stagnating is a bad idea IMO because during that time you are potentially missing out on excellent, and cheap, years from your blossoming young offensive core. They're here, they're ready. You're also wasting what could be the final years from Mauer, Dozier, Santana. And you're losing out on a significant opportunity with three-fifths of the division basically rebuilding. That won't last forever. The time is now. I do not agree that the strategy should be focused around winning in 2-3 years.

Interesting. But is it really buy low when he just posted a 2.87 ERA and allowed a .141 average? It'll take a haul to get him.

Turnarounds like the one we saw from Minnesota this season are rare, but not unprecedented. Derek Falvey knows this as well as anyone. Fresh off his first year as Twins Chief Baseball Officer, Falvey is working in familiar territory. He understands from experience that the hardest part isn't going from irrelevance to contention, but taking the next step.** Before we get started on this overview of the coming offseason, I'll make a quick pitch for your quintessential Hot Stove guide: The 2018 Twins Daily Offseason Handbook is now available for preorder. Click the link to claim your copy, and you'll get it as soon as it's ready, after the postseason concludes. Same deal as last year: name your price. Recommendation is $5, but you can pay as little or as much as you wish. We appreciate any and all support! Plenty more details are on the way in the coming weeks. You can check out last year's edition for an idea of what to expect. ** Midway through Falvey's tenure in Cleveland's front office, the Indians made a leap similar to the one we just saw from the Twins. After finishing in fourth place with 94 losses in 2012, Cleveland improved by 24 wins, earning a Wild Card berth in 2013 but losing to the Rays. In that case, the sudden emergence was followed by two years of treading water. The Indians won 85 and 81 games the next two seasons, finishing third both times, before rising to win the AL Central and pennant in 2016. This year, of course, they won 102 games and took the division again, but were ousted by the Yankees in the ALDS. For Falvey and his general manager Thad Levine, the goal is to unseat the current Central champs by following a similar path, but skipping the stagnation. Given the makeup of this roster as we head into the offseason, that's a reasonable objective. And in fact, while there's been much talk of a measured approach aligning with the big picture, one can argue that the front office should be making a very emphatic championship push in 2018 specifically. END OF AN ERA? Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer are both in line to return next year, and we can only hope they'll be as effective as in 2017. Sustained performance is no given; Mauer turns 35 next April, Dozier 31 in May. Age can become a factor at any time. There's also the matter of their contracts, which both expire after next year. The Twins certainly could bring them back, but it's hardly assured. This may well be the last chance to make a run with both longtime staples as key contributors. MARK YOUR CALENDARS Here are some important dates worth keeping in mind as we survey the offseason landscape. Three Days After End of World Series: Contract Options Due. The Twins only have one and it's a no-brainer: they'll exercise a $700,000 buyout to decline the $6.5 million team option for Glen Perkins. Five Days After End of World Series: Deadline to Make Qualifying Offers to Free Agents. For the five days after the postseason concludes, MLB teams get an exclusive negotiating window with their own free agents. During this time, they can make a qualifying offer, which brings the player back on a one-year (~$18M) contract if accepted, and yields draft pick compensation if they decline and sign elsewhere. None of the Twins' internal free agents – Matt Belisle, Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago, Dillon Gee – are worthy of a QO, and it's highly unlikely Minnesota will sign any before the market opens up. Six Days After End of World Series: Free Agency Open for Business. We don't know much about how this front office will operate yet, but if their first major move was any indication, they are going to be aggressive in pursuing their top targets. Last offseason, the Twins made their interest in Jason Castro known very quickly, and had him signed before the end of November. Once free agency officially gets underway, we should start hearing rumblings pretty quickly about players that Falvey and Thad Levine are keen on. This is the first offseason where they've had a chance to fully set up a plan going in, so they undoubtedly already have some names in mind. I suspect they'll be shopping for three things in particular: starting pitchers, relief pitchers and right-handed bats. You can get a deep look at what's available in each of those categories with our Free Agency breakdowns in the Offseason Handbook. November 13th-16th: GM Meetings. Today's general managers communicate through many different channels to negotiate trades (much of the action happens on Tinder, Levine has joked) but there's still something to be said for an old-fashioned face-to-face discussion. All 30 GMs will be in the same place during this week, with the annual GM Meetings taking place in Orlando. It'll be an opportunity to lay the groundwork with other execs as well as agents. Falvey and Levine haven't been shy about pulling the trigger on deals thus far, and started up extensive talks with the Dodgers over Dozier last winter around this time. December 10th-14th: Winter Meetings. One month later, the baseball world will converge once again in Orlando for the Winter Meetings – typically the most active period of the entire offseason. What kinds of shakeups might we see from the Twins? EXTENSIONS, EXTENSIONS, EXTENSIONS Some of the biggest storylines of this offseason will surround potential long-term contracts for a number of different players. Last week, John wrote about the merits of locking up Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario ahead of their arbitration years. A day later, Seth pondered what an extension for Dozier might look like as he looks ahead to a walk year. This week, he also took a deeper dive on how a Buxton extension could take shape. Here at Twins Daily, we'll of course have plenty more coverage of Hot Stove season as it gets piping, with all of the speculation, analysis and up-to-the-minute news you expect. But I promise you this: you are going to want a copy of the Offseason Handbook as a handy resource along the way. Please consider preordering yours now to ensure you receive it the moment it becomes available. Click here to view the article

EDITOR'S NOTE: We're re-pinning this article from October today due to the news that Glen Perkins has officially retired from baseball. On the final Sunday of the 2017 regular season, Minnesota Twins fans had the privilege of watching 44-year-old Bartolo Colon put, perhaps, the finishing touch on a lengthy major-league career that will go down as unforgettable. One night earlier, another pitcher likely closed the book on a story that's been far more impactful and personal to us, playing out from start to finish in our own backyards. Glen Perkins won't loom as large as Colon in the game's history, but he will deservedly go down as a Minnesota baseball legend, and if we were to establish a Twins Daily Hall of Fame, he'd certainly be a first-ballot inductee.Why do I say Perk is an easy choice for this hypothetical TD Hall of Fame? The biggest reason is obvious enough: his play. Our site launched in 2012, and during the first several years of its existence, he was easily one of the team's brightest stars. Perkins first took over the closer role midway through that campaign, relieving us all of Matt Capps. From that point through the end of the 2015 season, the left-hander was one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball, a three-time All Star and a dominant force. His best years coincided directly with the rise of our community. They also coincided directly with one of the darkest chapters in this franchise's modern history, which is a true shame. I do wonder how much differently Perkins might be viewed if more than a handful of his 120 career saves were actually meaningful. But it's not just the performance Perkins delivered at his peak that makes him near-and-dear to this site. He is in so many ways a reflection of everything Twins Daily stands for: a celebration of Minnesota baseball; an embracing of deeper and more thoughtful analysis; a sometimes nerdy level of passion for the game. This piece is my attempt to recognize Perkins for all of these things. Local Product He's the definition of a homegrown talent. Perkins was born in Stillwater, just inside the Minnesota border, in 1983. He grew up and played prep ball there, then attended the University of Minnesota, where he starred for the Gophers. Taken by his hometown MLB team with the 22nd overall pick in 2004, Perkins became the eighth first-round pick out of the U of M, joining – among others – Paul Molitor. How fitting that Molitor would eventually be the manager to send Perk out for his emotional curtain call in the season's second-to-last game. Obviously our central focus here at Twins Daily is covering the Twins (daily) but we also make efforts to extend our lens to Minnesota hardball at large. Readers could find frequent coverage of the Gophers and St. Paul Saints this summer, and around draft time we always shine a light on the locals. Perkins covers the breadth of our scope. When he donned those road jerseys with the "MINNESOTA" lettering across the front, it had quite a bit more meaning for Perkins than most. The Reinvention After joining the pro ranks, Perkins rose quickly through the minors, making his first big-league appearance two years after being drafted. But in time it became apparent that he wasn't cut out as an MLB starter. After working up to 150 innings in 2008, his arm didn't respond well. The following year he battled injuries while his fastball dipped below 90 and his K/9 sank to an untenable nadir. Late in the season, relations between he and the team reached a low point when Perkins filed a grievance against the Twins for optioning him to the minors instead of sending him on a rehab assignment off a DL stint, preventing him qualifying for Super 2 status (and thus, an arbitration raise). It was a logical decision for the Twins, but one could understand the lefty's frustration. His budding career momentum had grinded to a halt before yielding any significant money. The next year he pitched terribly in Triple-A but came back up to the majors in August anyway, in a probable last shot with the organization. Ron Gardenhire and the Twins saw something they liked as Perkins worked as a reliever in September, posting a 3.09 ERA and averaging a strikeout per inning. They brought him to New York for the playoffs. In spring of 2011, he was reportedly close to not making the team before a late-March meeting with Gardenhire in which he told the skipper, “I want to pitch for the Twins. It’s where I grew up. Just give me a chance.” They did, and boy was it a good call. Perkins blossomed as a setup man that year, pumping heat in the mid-90s, then took over the closer role in 2012. He would make three straight All Star teams in that capacity, and four years later he'd overtake Eddie Guardado for third on the franchise leaderboard in saves. It's the kind of turnaround that should inspire every struggling young player in the game. A Studious Mind As you may or may not be aware, Perkins wrote the foreword for this year's edition of the Baseball Prospectus Annual. In it, he recounts the story of discovering BP in 2009, and thusly becoming aware of sabermetrics and modernized analysis. Suddenly, he was noticing the negative harbingers in a 12-win 2008 season – a sub par K-rate, a bloated fly ball ratio, a FIP north of 5.00. A change in mindset, and reevaluating the factors of his game really worth focusing on, may have played a big role in driving his turnaround. By the time he was blooming as an elite relief pitcher in 2013, Perkins was well versed in advanced stats. That May, he participated in a Q&A with David Laurila of FanGraphs where he drilled down into metrics like K/9, Z-Swing%, and HR/FB. His assertion in that interview that FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is the most important pitching statistic probably wasn't shared by any of his peers in the majors, but was music to the ears of bloggers and analytical fans. This commonality – a fervent curiosity about baseball, extending beyond its traditions and platitudes – helped many of us fans feel an inherent bond with the hurler, and he strengthened it with an engaging and accessible personality. Perk has always been pretty interactive on Twitter. He and his wife Alisha host an annual 5K supporting mental health. He notoriously bought a round of beers from the bullpen for Twins Daily readers at our first Touch Em All Pub Crawl. He has even gone to bat for the value of baseball writing not driven by access: Perkins has done much to endear himself to Twins fans – and the hardcore sorts that patronize this site especially – so it's safe to say he wasn't the only one dealing with dust in his eyes as he sat in the dugout after that final appearance of the year. One of Us Here in Minnesota, the above term is thrown around often in sarcastic tones, teasing the absurd amount of pride we tend to express over athletes with local ties. But Perkins fulfills that descriptor in every sense. Thanks, Perk, for being One of Us and representing Us so well. Click here to view the article

We had some tough choices to make in our Twins Daily Awards polling for Most Improved and Rookie of the Year. The decision for Best Pitcher was... considerably easier. Ervin Santana unsurprisingly swept the ballots with arguably the best campaign by a Twins starter since that other Santana guy left town.The last time we saw Big Erv take the mound this year, it wasn't pretty. He was an erratic mess at Yankee Stadium in the AL Wild Card Game, instantly coughing up Minnesota's first-inning lead and exiting after two frames. But the Twins never would have reached that unexpected point without Santana's steady work atop the rotation all summer. Not a chance. He was far-and-away the team's most valuable and effective pitcher. Only Jose Berrios came close, and while he earned every second-place vote in our ballots, the much-improved young righty was a very distant second by any measure. Santana's 3.28 ERA was not only the best in the rotation this year, edging Berrios by more than half a run, but the best mark by a qualifying Twins starter since Johan's 2.77 in 2006. On a staff that desperately needed innings from starters to protect an iffy bullpen, Santana threw 211 innings – most since Carl Pavano's 222 in 2011, and 50 more than 2017 runner-up Kyle Gibson. Santana's five complete games and three shutouts both led baseball – in fact, only one team (Cleveland) had more complete games and none had more shutouts. Santana's WHIP (1.13) and BAA (.225) were the lowest of his career, and both ranked fifth among AL starters. He posted his best walk rate since 2008, finishing on a strong note with just four walks over 35 innings in September. It was a masterful age-34 season for Santana, who has proven to be a resoundingly successful free agent signing, perhaps the best in franchise history. Defying the conventional effects of age, Erv has only gotten better as his contract has progressed and he's entered his mid-30s. As long as he can continue to stay healthy while commanding his solid fastball and excellent slider, he should be ready to bring it again next year. Hopefully a young starter like Berrios or Adalberto Mejia – or a newcomer acquired this offseason – will be able to give Santana a run for his money in this category, however. THE BALLOTS Here's a look at the ballots from each of our nine voters. There was zero disagreement over the top two choices, and Twins Daily's Rookie of the Year winner was very well represented despite throwing only 42 innings. Seth Stohs: 1) Ervin Santana, 2) Jose Berrios, 3) Trevor Hildenberger, 4) Taylor Rogers Nick Nelson: 1) Ervin Santana, 2) Jose Berrios, 3) Trevor Hildenberger, 4) Kyle Gibson Parker Hageman: 1) Ervin Santana, 2) Jose Berrios, 3) Bartolo Colon, 4) Brandon Kintzler John Bonnes: 1) Ervin Santana, 2) Jose Berrios, 3) Brandon Kintzler, 4) Trevor Hildenberger Jeremy Nygaard: 1) Ervin Santana, 2) Jose Berrios, 3) Taylor Rogers, 4) Brandon Kintzler Cody Christie: 1) Ervin Santana, 2) Jose Berrios, 3) Brandon Kintzler, 4) Taylor Rogers Steve Lien: 1) Ervin Santana, 2) Jose Berrios, 3) Trevor Hildenberger, 4) Brandon Kintzler Tom Froemming: 1) Ervin Santana, 2) Jose Berrios, 3) Adalberto Mejia, 4) Kyle Gibson Ted Schwerzler: 1) Ervin Santana, 2) Jose Berrios, 3) Trevor Hildenberger, 4) Matt Belisle POINTS Ervin Santana: 36 Jose Berrios: 27 Trevor Hildenberger: 9 Brandon Kintzler: 7 Taylor Rogers: 4 Kyle Gibson: 2 Bartolo Colon: 2 Adalberto Mejia: 2 Matt Belisle: 1 Do you agree with our committee's pick? Who would be your choice for Best Twins Pitcher and why? 2017 TWINS DAILY AWARDS 2017 Most Improved: Byron Buxton 2017 Rookie of the Year: Trevor Hildenberger 2017 Pitcher of the Year: Ervin Santana 2017 Most Valuable Player: Thursday Click here to view the article

Improvement was the story of the 2017 Minnesota Twins. From 103 losses to 85 wins; from worst team in baseball to a postseason berth. It was a year-to-year jump like none we've ever seen in this franchise's history. Many different players contributed to this seismic upswing with their own individual progressions, making this first Twins Daily Award a tough one. As you'll see, there was plenty of diversity on the ballots, but in the end, one player stood out as a fairly clear choice.Byron Buxton's massive strides forward were reflective of what we saw from this team as a whole in 2017: young, raw talent finally figuring it out and pulling things together. A quick glance at his offensive numbers may not point to huge improvement – his OPS rose by only 14 points from 2016 to 2017 (.714 to .728), and his OPS+ jumped by only four (90 to 94). But that doesn't tell the whole story by any means. Buxton comprehensively advanced his game, and – while this award intends to recognize positive change from one year to the next – his incredible in-season improvements are what really sealed the deal for him. Let's break it down by three areas in which the 23-year-old budding superstar elevated his performance: His Bat Buxton got his season off to a disastrous start at the plate, going 3-for-37 with a 20-to-1 K/BB ratio in his first 10 games. From there, he gradually started to get on track, but digging such a deep early hole meant it would take awhile for his overall numbers to reach respectability. Buxton's batting average didn't surpass .200 for the first time until the last day of May. His approach at the plate improved, and so did the results, but his first half was filled with fits and stops. At the All-Star break, when he went on the disabled list with a groin injury, the center fielder was sporting an ugly .218/.292/.311 slash line. It was upon his return from that DL stint, on August 1st, that things truly began to click. In the final two months Buxton slashed .298/.342/.541 with 11 homers, seven doubles and five triples. By the end of the year he looked like a totally different player. He was making regular contact, smashing line drives, working counts, bunting for hits, and producing steadily in the middle of the lineup. Whereas the September 2016 outburst that raised his OPS from .561 to .714 didn't carry the indicators of sustainability (he still struck out at a 34% clip while hammering nine balls over the fence), Buck's more gradual 2017 turnaround was quite convincing. His Glove In 2016, Buxton showed the makings of an elite defensive player, with his incredible speed enabling him to track down just about every ball. In 2017, he became THE elite defensive player, maximizing the impact of that speed with superior recognition and routes. Per FanGraphs, his UZR/150 improved from 6.4 to 13.1. His DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) went from three to 24. He led baseball in StatCast's Outs Above Average measure this year at 25; in 2016 he ranked 14th at 10. Buxton hauled in an astonishing 26 four-star catches after nabbing six a year ago. His Baserunning Much like his defense, Buxton's base-running went from promising to preeminent. In 2016 he stole 10 bases on 12 attempts. Not bad. In 2017 he stole 29 on 30 attempts (plus 1-for-1 in the Wild Card game), and not one single catcher was able to beat him with a throw all year – Buxton's only caught stealing came on an overslide. According to Baseball Prospectus' Baserunning Runs (BRR) metric, which accounts for "a player's contributions on the basepaths based on activity during the run of play, on stolen base attempts, from tag-up situations, and other advancement opportunities," Buxton was the third-most valuable runner in the game behind Dee Gordon and Delino Deshields. In 2016 he ranked 14th. The Full Package In the final eight weeks of the season Buxton was probably MLB's single most valuable all-around player, everything considered. With his offense finally catching up to his other-worldly aptitude on the base paths and in center field, he changed games on a nightly basis, playing a pivotal role in lifting the Twins from alsorans to postseason entrants. That earned him our Most Improved award over a number of deserving contenders. THE BALLOTS Here's a look at the ballots from each of our nine voters. Opinions varied greatly on this one. There were five different choices for No. 1, and no player appeared on every list. Seth Stohs: 1) Eddie Rosario, 2) Byron Buxton, 3) Jose Berrios Nick Nelson: 1) Byron Buxton, 2) Eddie Rosario, 3) Jose Berrios Parker Hageman: 1) Byron Buxton, 2) Joe Mauer, 3) Eduardo Escobar John Bonnes: 1) Jose Berrios, 2) Eduardo Escobar, 3) Miguel Sano Jeremy Nygaard: 1) Joe Mauer, 2) Byron Buxton, 3) Eddie Rosario/Jose Berrios Cody Christie: 1) Byron Buxton, 2) Jorge Polanco, 3) Eddie Rosario Steve Lien: 1) Eddie Rosario, 2) Jose Berrios, 3) Byron Buxton Tom Froemming: 1) Jose Berrios, 2) Eddie Rosario, 3) Eduardo Escobar Ted Schwerzler: 1) Byron Buxton, 2) Kyle Gibson, 3) Jorge Polanco POINTS Byron Buxton: 17 Eddie Rosario: 11.5 Jose Berrios: 10.5 Joe Mauer: 5 Eduardo Escobar: 4 Jorge Polanco: 3 Kyle Gibson: 2 Miguel Sano: 1 Do you agree with our committee's pick? Who would be your choice for Most Improved Twin and why? Click here to view the article

^^ Phil Cuzzi is working the NLDS so I think we should be safe this time around

'Let me start with issuing you a challenge: Be better than you are. Set a goal that seems unattainable, and when you reach that goal, set another one even higher.' - Herb Brooks The Twins have already achieved the seemingly unattainable in becoming the first MLB team ever to go from losing 100 games to making the playoffs – er, playoff. To pluralize that, an even bigger challenge now stands in the way: Going into New York and overcoming those damn Yankees.Winning a single game against any opponent should not be such an intimidating proposition, but we all know the history here. The Twins have lost nine straight postseason games against the Yankees and have a .270 winning percentage against them overall dating back to the start of the Ron Gardenhire era. This year, Minnesota extended a streak of futility by dropping four of six against New York in the regular season. The last time the Twins won a season series against the Yanks was 2001 when they went 4-2. Their winning pitchers in those victories were Brad Radke, Joe Mays, Eric Milton and Eddie Guardado. Now, Guardado is overseeing a bullpen that's been surprisingly effective since subtracting its top performer at the deadline. But even if Brandon Kintzler was still around, Guardado's unit would still be at a staggering disadvantage against this powerful Yankees relief corps. So as we examine potential weaknesses to exploit in a quest to slay the giant, we must first confront its most menacing strength. The Unwinnable Bullpen Battle When these two teams met in NYC two weeks ago, the pivotal moment in the series came in the eighth inning of Game 1, with New York leading 2-1. The Twins had managed to mount a rare threat against this vaunted pen, capitalizing on Dellin Betances' wildness to load the bases with one out. Stepping in: Joe Mauer. On deck: Byron Buxton. Two of the league's better hitters in the second half. So Joe Girardi went to his big gun, calling on Aroldis Chapman for a five-out save. Mauer's ensuing at-bat is one that sticks with me as I think back on that game, and look ahead to Tuesday's. He'd been one of the game's toughest outs over the previous month, batting almost .400 and rarely failing to make contact. Chapman blew him away on three pitches, burning him with a 103 MPH fastball for strike three and then inducing a weak fly on the first pitch against Buxton to escape unscathed. In that game, Girardi utilized a strategy he would love to follow again on Tuesday, pulling his starter in the sixth at the first sign of trouble, and then letting his three-headed bullpen monster take care of the rest. Chapman, Betances and David Robertson got 10 outs without allowing a hit, and that's pretty much the norm; not one of the three has allowed a batting average higher than .202. Ervin Santana pitched well enough that his team was only down one when he exited in the sixth, but that single run looms incredibly large against such a fearsome late-inning trio. It is urgent that the Twins strike early. They'll be attempting to do so against one of the American League's finest starting pitchers. Solving Severino Flaws are not easily detected in Luis Severino, New York's 23-year-old All-Star rotation-fronter. He ranks third in the AL in ERA, trailing only Corey Kluber and Chris Sale who will surely be the top two Cy Young finishers. Severino is a strikeout machine and doesn't issue many walks. He has every attribute of an ace. Oh, and he's red-hot: 2.10 ERA and .423 OPS in his five September starts – each a win for the Yankees. He originally signed out of the Dominican Republic for a relatively modest $235,000 on December 26th, 2011 (a belated Christmas gift, it turns out). A month earlier the Twins had signed fellow countryman Fernando Romero with a $260,000 bonus. Romero was ranked as Twins Daily's No. 1 prospect this spring and he showed signs this year that things are moving in the right direction. We can only hope he someday approaches the brilliance Severino is already displaying. Severino brings gas. There isn't a starter in major league baseball who can match his velocity. He's got a nasty slider and a quality changeup. He is an intimidating force, but he's not infallible. The Twins know this because they're the only team that has gotten to him in the past month. His only unspectacular start in September came against Minnesota, who chased him after three innings by running him up to 71 pitches. Can they repeat it? There are three reasons to think they might: 1. Patience Pays Severino doesn't have the frequent bouts of erraticness you expect from such a hard thrower. He has issued one or zero walks in more than half of his starts, and his 2.4 BB/9 rate would be the best of all Twins starters save for Bartolo Colon. The Twins only walked once against Severino in their lone matchup with him this year, but they grinded out at-bats and made him work hard. Mauer, redeeming himself after the tough result against Chapman two nights earlier, drove in the game's first run with perhaps the best AB by a Twin all year, a 13-pitch marathon ending in an RBI single. We'll need to see a lot more of that – pesky at-bats that ratchet up the pitch count and force another early exit. The Twins rank third in the AL in walks and fourth in pitches per plate appearance. 2. Ambush Approach The beauty of this Twins offense is in its ability to attack with such sudden ferocity that an opposing team hardly knows what hit it. They strike and score in bunches. You might as well call them the Crooked Number Crew. Severino doesn't get flustered often and frequently gets into grooves where he's virtually untouchable. But he is susceptible to the ambush. He was cruising along in that start against the Twins until they jumped all over him in the third, and then he was gone. It's a recurring theme in his less-than-stellar performances this year (not that there have been many) – blips of turbulence that snowballed. 3. Nerves and Wear Going with Severino in this winner-take-all affair is essentially a no-brainer, but the decision isn't without risk. He's a 23-year-old who has never pitched in a game with these kinds of stakes, or anything close really. On top of that, he's at an unprecedented workload, with 193 innings in the books (his previous high was 162). I'm not saying either of these things are necessarily decisive issues. But together, they are worth keeping in mind. The Miggy Factor Just when it was starting to appear Miguel Sano might not make it back this year, he pronounced himself ready to play ahead of this weekend's closing series against Detroit. In his tuneup games, he didn't look close to 100 percent, displaying some rust at the plate and still limping on his injured leg, but Sano is the best and most dangerous hitter on this roster. His absence was felt in the Bronx two weeks ago, when the Twins scored only six runs in a three-game sweep. If Sano is healthy enough to swing a bat, he pretty much needs to be in the lineup, or at the very least available on the bench. Paul Molitor essentially acknowledged this, saying after Saturday's game: "I'm leaning that even just having the threat has enough value to consider it." It seems safe to say that Sano won't be intimidated by the spotlight. He has never played in a game of this magnitude but history tells us he thrives in big spots, and (SMALL SAMPLE SIZE WARNING) his track record against the Yankees is strong: 1.169 OPS with five home runs in nine games, including two homers and four RBI in three contests at their park. Plugging Sano into the starting lineup requires a leap of faith from Molitor, who acknowledged that the slugger's timing and recognition were clearly amiss on Friday and Saturday. But it feels like a leap he needs to take, doesn't it? Playing the Ground Game As you'd expect from a group leading the majors in home runs, the Yankees are a prototypical power-hitting team that loves to elevate the ball. Against fly ball pitchers this year, they've hit .268/.345/.489, compared to .253/.334/.392 against ground ball pitchers. That's a 108-point drop in OPS, whereas MLB as a whole has only a 20-point difference. The bad news here, of course, is that Ervin Santana is no one's idea of a ground-ball pitcher. His grounder rate is 15th-lowest among big-league starters and his fly ball rate is seventh-highest. The long ball has been his most evident weakness in an all-around excellent season; only five pitchers have allowed more than his 31 bombs. The good news is that he hasn't allowed multiple homers in a start since July, and he also has a skill that should play very well against the Yankees: missing bats. Santana ramped up his whiffs in the second half, with a 12% swinging strike rate in 14 starts since the break. That clip would rank just outside MLB's top 10 overall, and actually just a tick behind Severino. Santana might be in trouble if he lets guys like Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez put the ball in play too often, so the key will be to make them miss. That's a known skill of Jose Berrios, who might be first in line to relieve Santana, but New York's splits could cause Molitor to think twice. His 39% grounder rate is lower even than Ervin's, though he hasn't been as susceptible to homers, allowing zero in his past four appearances. If Santana gets in trouble early, Berrios remains the obvious choice as a bridge to the bullpen, but there shouldn't be an overeagerness to get him in. Molitor should, however, be prepared to go to Trevor Hildenberger whenever things are getting sticky. His 59% ground ball rate is elite. And, yes: the Twins are going to miss having Kintzler available. Stealing on Sanchez? On Sunday afternoon, Byron Buxton stole his 29th base of the season on his 24th consecutive successful attempt. This one came the same way as most before it: really, really easily. The Tigers knew, with certainty, that he'd be attempting to steal. Anibal Sanchez threw over three times before delivering a pitch. As soon as he went home, Buxton was gone, and he coasted into second base without a throw. It feels safe to say he's the best base stealer in the game right now, and he may be on his way to establishing himself as one of the best ever. Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez, for all his flaws as a receiver (his 16 passed balls lead the league), does have a good arm. He threw out 41% of runners last year and is at 38% this year, both well above average. Meanwhile, Severino doesn't get run on often (only six attempts in 31 starts) so this is a tough battery to crack. I'd bet on Buxton, but would be reluctant to send any other members of the lineup. One thing to keep in mind: Ehire Adrianza is 8-for-9 on steals this year and had a 72% success rate in the minors. He'll be available on the bench. Let's Go It feels strange to write so many words in a preview for one single game, but that's where we stand. An entire season comes down to this one contest. We already know that each decision and controversial play on Tuesday night will be overanalyzed and dissected to death, so we might as well get it started early, right? The Yankees are heavily favored in this game, with good reason: They are the better team – right now, anyway. To pull off this unlikely victory and advance, the Twins need to orchestrate an upset. And with that in mind, I keep coming back to that quote from Herb Brooks, who knew a little something about the task. "Be better than you are." For one night at least, the Twins need to do just that. At the risk (okay, certainty) of sounding over-dramatic, it feels wrong not to close with this question: Do you believe in miracles? Click here to view the article

These are all flawed teams. The Twins came out on top of a mediocre pack that is clearly a significant step behind the Top 4 and especially the Top 3. Maybe they'll win against the Yankees. Maybe they'll somehow pull off an upset in the ALDS and even the ALCS, though I think we all recognize this is outrageously unlikely because pitching wins in October and the Twins don't have it. They wouldn't have had it if Kintzler was here. Whatever they do next month, it will serve as a springboard going forward, and that should be the real focus. They need to build a championship-caliber staff and while I'm not convinced Littell, or Enns, or Watson will be part of it, they have a chance to help and that's better than nothing for two guys who'd have been here making a minimal difference for a total of 60 innings or so. (In fact, Garcia would've been a net negative, which nobody on the other side of this debate seems to want to address. Trading him will go down as a brilliant move if either prospect they get back has an impact in 2018/19.) Re: Kintzler. I get that he was the team's best-performing reliever, but let's not act like the Twins traded Glen Perkins or Joe Nathan in his prime. This is a closer with a K/9 of 5 and an xFIP of 4.25. I'm not really going to defend the trade because Watson doesn't seem like anything special but conceptually I like the idea of giving up a non-elite relief rental for value when you have a middling shot at a 1-game wild card play-in.

I believe that's the Pickler factor

It was a team 3 games under .500, with a far worse Pythagorean W/L, coming off a 100-loss season. To make their playoff run, they needed to play .600 ball while EVERY OTHER TEAM in the league (sans the 4 clearly superior playoff squads) to completely folded. If you had faith in the Twins' ability to do this, as a fan, then I commend you. But there was no real reason for a front office to foresee this outcome based on a rational analysis. It's literally one of the first times something like this has ever happened. I hope (and trust) that in the future they'll continue to make decisions on the same basis. If they would've sunk the team's chances I would get this argument, but they didn't, not even close! The Twins still walked away with this thing, and not having Kintzler or Garcia won't be the reason they fail to advance.

In some corners, Minnesota's new front office leaders will probably be handed too much credit for their roles in one of the most remarkable turnarounds ever by a major-league team. In Year 1 under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the Twins will improve by at least 24 wins, going from 100 losses to a probable playoff berth. The narrative is obvious.But the more striking narrative here pertains to the duo's good fortune, rather than their miraculous intervention. Most often, baseball executives getting their first chances to lead a major-league front office are tasked with overhauling a complete mess. From the outside, that's what this looked like: Falvey and Levine inherited the reigning worst team in baseball, one that had lost 90-plus games in five of the last six seasons. They spoke frequently about their big-picture mindset, expressing an intent to eschew shortcuts and quick fixes. But the staggering improvement we've seen this year owes to something we mostly already knew, despite the 2016 debacle: This rebuild was already well underway when the new Chief Baseball Officer and GM arrived. Most of the critical pieces had reached the big-league ranks and others were on the brink. It's just about the most favorable situation one can imagine walking into. For much of that, Falvey and Levine can thank their predecessor Terry Ryan and his colleagues, who assembled a great deal of talent. But while Ryan deserves credit for assembling much of this core, the "Boy Geniuses" (as my pal Clarence Swamptown blithely refers to them -- BeeGees for short) have given us plenty of indications that they're the right ones to bring it forward. The Deadline Dance Recently, I've seen some retrospective debate surrounding the front office's approach at the trade deadline. The critical argument goes like this: Falvey and Levine made a miscalculation by pivoting to seller mode and trading away assets, rather than adding, at the end of July. Regardless of the impact these moves had, the signal was one of resignation, and now it looks bad. This line of thinking doesn't really work for me, for two reasons: 1) It wasn't really a "sell" They didn't trade Brian Dozier, or Ervin Santana. They gave up a starter they'd acquired a week earlier, and a reliever who proved nonessential. Good front office execs are opportunistic, and that's exactly how to describe these moves; the market for Jaime Garcia heated up as the Yankees developed a need, and Brandon Kintzler's value was at its absolute peak. Both are heading for free agency. And in fact, you can argue there's been significant overall benefit from removing them, as it opened the door for Kyle Gibson and Trevor Hildenberger – who will be around next year – to step into bigger roles and flourish. 2) It was a perfectly reasonable strategy even if you want to call it a sell Look, we don't need to delve into playoff odds and percentages, which were dreadfully low as the Twins reached the end of July, trailing several teams in the race and playing uninspiring ball. An honest assessment showed at the time (and still shows) that this isn't a great team, not yet anyway. It would've been impossible to predict that laggards like Gibson and Jorge Polanco would suddenly take off while the rest of the American League completely folded, but the FO didn't do anything to sabotage the Twins' chances in such an event – obviously. In fact, I see Minnesota's deadline approach as a savvy one that avoided the pitfalls of this new postseason format. The addition of a second Wild Card slot means more teams are in the mix, and this compels clubs to make "Buy" moves when they're not necessarily warranted*. The Royals traded prospects to acquire Trevor Cahill and Melky Cabrera. The Angels made deals in August to acquire Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips. All of this got them nowhere. Meanwhile, the Twins – who are at the front end of their winning cycle – added future assets and will still get their shot. Falvey and Levine come away from this looking pretty good. * As a middling club aiming for a WC berth, you're still facing serious uphill odds with a one-game play-in for the chance to face superior teams in the Division and League Championship Series. I like the system but it begs for a merely solid team to sacrifice long-term thinking in order to chase that tiny chance. Given their position, the Twins were wise to steer clear of this trap. Putting Pieces in Place How much did the execs influence the team's success this year? It's tough to measure, but I think we can safely say they had a positive impact. As mentioned before, the Twins' turnaround was largely driven by players brought into the organization by Ryan and even Bill Smith. Meanwhile, the same manager is running the show. But the dramatic improvement in on-field results has likely been facilitated in some ways by the new regime. For one thing, there were free agent signings like Jason Castro and Matt Belisle. Castro has proven a very solid addition, helping the pitching staff with his strong framing work, while Belisle has been brilliant in the ninth, negating the absence of Kintzler. Perhaps more importantly, there were organizational changes and coaching staff additions like James Rowson and Jeff Pickler. I don't think it's coincidence that so many young hitters are suddenly turning corners, or that the Twins have suddenly catapulted to the top tier of MLB defenses, with these two handpicked coaches in the dugout. Moreover, Levine has mostly pulled the right roster strings throughout the summer, showing a refreshing willingness to shuttle players in and out as needed, and to experiment with a multitude of arms to see what works. Through it all, decisions have seemingly been guided by evidence, data, and good intelligence. I'm not confident these guys will always make the right calls – no one does. But I am feeling confident that those calls will be well-informed and guided by the three things mentioned above. My interactions with Falvey and Levine, and everything they've done and said, reinforces the team's decision and leads me to believe this beautiful gift is in very good hands. And make no mistake: it is a beautiful gift. The Twins have one of the best and youngest offenses in the game, with every member of a top-tier lineup locked in for next year. They have a strong farm system, with a pipeline ready to deliver. And they also have significant spending freedom on the horizon, with Joe Mauer's $23 million coming off the books next year and minimal contractual commitments beyond that. Lefty Gomez once said, "I'd rather be lucky than good." Why not both? Click here to view the article

What once seemed unthinkable is now a crystallizing reality: The Twins are in all likelihood headed toward a one-game Wild Card showdown against the Yankees in New York on October 3rd. And while they will be heavy underdogs in such a contest – especially after what we saw in the Bronx last week – in one game, anything can happen. Let's start looking ahead.As long as the Twins avoid total collapse in the final week, they will be able to wrap up a pretty cool distinction as the first team ever to qualify for the postseason one year after losing 100-plus games. But while it would technically count as a playoff appearance, the Twins won't really be in it unless they can win that Wild Card game against New York and make the ALDS. It's been as evident in head-to-head match-ups as it is in the overall records: The Twins are not as good as the Yankees, nor any of the three other American League playoff teams. (Yet.) But as mentioned above, the one-game Wild Card format is ripe for upsets and even in the sample of a short playoff series, a lesser club can sometimes emerge. All it takes is a few well-timed hits and some good pitching performances. We know the lineup is capable of producing the former, but they will be facing very tough assignments. So the emphasis will be on the arms, as it often is in October. With this in mind, let's map out the Twins starters for the remaining six games of the regular season and into the playoffs. Based on La Velle's report that Paul Molitor has Bartolo Colon, Adalberto Mejia and Ervin Santana lined up to go in Cleveland this week, here's how I foresee the rotation playing out for the rest of the regular season, then in to a Wild Card game and hypothetical ALDS: @CLE 9/26: Colon @CLE 9/27: Mejia @CLE 9/28: Santana DET 9/29: Gibson DET 9/30: Berrios DET 10/1: Colon AL WC 10/3: Santana ALDS G1 10/5: Gibson ALDS G2 10/6: Berrios ALDS G3 10/8: Santana You're welcome to share your thoughts on this layout in the comments below. Here are a few things that stick out to me: Game 1 Gibby We can talk about how ridiculous it seems, or how horribly overmatched he will be against Corey Kluber or Justin Verlander, but we should also acknowledge how incredible this is. Kyle Gibson was one of the league's worst starting pitchers during the first half. He spent time in Triple-A in May, and produced only two quality starts in the first three months. His ERA was above 6 most of the summer, and as late as mid-August. But Gibby has been a different man in his last seven turns, guiding to the team to seven victories. Granted, he has gotten plenty of offensive support during that span, but the righty has also just pitched really well. He has gone at least six innings every time out, posting a 2.56 ERA and holding opponents to a .236 average (they hit .308 against him in his first 21 starts). Things are clearly clicking for the 29-year-old. I theorized at the end of August his wholesale mechanical adjustments might finally be gelling, and the theory remains plausible after five more convincing starts in September. With Ervin Santana being needed for the WC play-in, Gibson is a fairly easy choice for Game 1 in the event of an ALDS berth. The more pressing question is whether Molitor would call on Gibson again for Game 4 on three days' rest. Which leads us to another matter: No Bartolo? Not so long ago, the idea of rounding out a four-man playoff rotation with Bartolo Colon (hold your jokes please) would have seemed reasonable enough. He had a 3.94 ERA through 10 starts with the Twins, and was pitching deep into almost every game. Plus, he's got more experience than anyone in the game, and the big stage is not unfamiliar to him – he's made 10 postseason starts and has generally been up to the task (3.49 ERA). But lately Colon has appeared cooked, as though the magic that buoyed him through an initial resurgence with Minnesota has run dry. He has allowed 16 earned runs over 11 innings in his past three starts, delivering non-competitive efforts in Kansas City and New York. I'm not sure you could really justify starting him against the high-octane Astros or Indians, even if you had a series lead and the alternative was Gibson on short rest. And if you can't start him, is there really a reason to have Colon on the postseason roster? Wondering About Workloads Santana went over 200 innings in his last start, and if he throws five against Cleveland on Thursday he'll finish at 211 for the campaign. That's his highest total since 2013, so it's worth pondering how his arm will hold up going into October. The Twins could ask him to pitch three if they win the Wild Card and push the ALDS to five games. Erv has looked as sharp as ever his last three times out – including a very impressive outing against the Yanks – so there's seemingly not much cause for concern. Jose Berrios is another case. He's an intriguing piece in this equation because if he's on his game, he might give Minnesota the best chance of anyone for a dominating, shut-down performance. But Berrios has been rather inconsistent at this late stage of the season and it might owe to his career-high workload. Between Triple-A and the majors, he's currently at 179 innings, which is 10 more than last year's benchmark. The 23-year-old's velocity is holding up well into late September (he averaged 94.58 MPH with the heater in his last turn, per Brooks Baseball) but his command has gone amiss of late. You could make a case for him in Game 1 but I think Molitor is wise to shield him a bit at this point. What are your thoughts? Do you think a playoff rotation would, or should, shake out differently? And isn't it wild that we're talking about this? Sound off in the comments. Click here to view the article

The cast of characters may have changed, but the story never does. The Twins went into Yankee Stadium this week and endured a beatdown. They are now 33-89 against the Bombers since Ron Gardenhire first took over in 2002, including 2-12 in the playoffs, and Wednesday's loss was their eighth in nine tries at Yankee Stadium under Paul Molitor.All right, I admit it was too harsh to say Minnesota cowered against the Yanks. They competed (Joe Mauer had one of his most epic ABs ever on Wednesday afternoon), and have given us zero reason this year to doubt their resiliency or resolve. But from the very start of the series, which commenced with a dizzying flurry of whiffs against Jaime Garcia, the Twins looked intimidated and overmatched. New York's superiority only seemed to crystalize as the games progressed. And that just serves to reinforce an inescapable narrative – that a mental block is at play, and this Little Team That Could shrinks in the Big Apple. It's a bit hard to buy into this. There is basically zero continuity that holds over from the beginning of this era of ineptitude in the rivalry. But in a game as random as baseball, you'd expect more successes out of sheer luck and variance than the Twins have been able to stumble into. Rarely has the talent between these teams been as lopsided as the outcomes have suggested over the past 15 years, but those outcomes reliably never change. Minnesota hasn't won a season series against New York during that span, and their winning percentage against them is roughly on par with the 2003 Tigers, who lost 119 games. This week's series just brought more of the same, and gave little reason to believe we should expect anything else in the near future. Incidentally, reliving this nightmare is now basically the best thing we can hope for, as the Twins will likely be heading back to Yankee Stadium for a Wild Card showdown if they can hold their ground the rest of the way (though Boston is also a possibility). We've seen this group respond positively to setbacks time and time again this year. Maybe another Bummer in the Bronx will provide the fuel they need to pull it together in these final 11 days. A chance to return and make it right. A chance to squash this narrative that nags at the franchise like an ache that won't go away. Speaking of which, if they do get that chance, the Twins had better hope they have Miguel Sano back to help out. Under those bright lights, the flashy star's absence was more noticeable than ever. To that end, signs are as ominous as a late deficit with Mariano Rivera – er, Aroldis Chapman – warming in the pen. Click here to view the article

Well determining a 2nd-half MVP is inherently an exercise in small-sample analysis, but it seems relevant given Buxton's role in driving the Twins' unlikely playoff push. The three you mentioned are certainly deserving candidates but it's not a given by any means. Buxton's production is comparable to them and he has a sizable edge in defensive value (not to downplay Trout and Lindor in this area but Buxton's is in his own world).

I was tossing it out there to make a point about overreacting to small-sample occurrences, which you consistently have a tendency to do. And no, trading Buxton for prospects is and was not a "viable" option; he's been arguably the AL MVP in the second-half, and he's the biggest reason this team is even in position for the "unacceptable" losses you're talking about to matter. Also, Granite is not a major-league starter. Respectfully, I don't really need to hear lecturing about "mean spirited" from someone who is constantly on these boards and elsewhere clamoring for people with the Twins to be fired. If you're going to spew vitriol nonstop that's fine but at least be ready to be held accountable for the things you write.

Well, the fact that you would let a three-game series loss (which was actually a four-game series split) entirely alter your perception of the team's effort and cohesion for the entire season probably means you're alone in that stance. Making these kinds of rash, snapshot judgments on the basis of tiny samples is the kind of thing that would lead a person to conclude Zack Granite is a superior option to Byron Buxton in center field.