TwinsDr2021

They got 2 years of Gray (with the first option to extend), Just over a year of Mahle (with the first option to extend), and over 2 years of Lopez (with the first option to extend). That is close to 6 years of big league play. Going by the odds it is not very likely they other teams get over 6 years total from those guys, going into next year two the three recently traded guys will be 22, 23 and 23, not old by any means but if they aren't in the big leagues in the next year or so, they odds of them being stars aren't that great either. Don't know this to be true, but guessing in most drafts a teams first 5 picks don't usually all make the big leagues, lets hope in this case the one that doesn't make it is the one the Twins kept. You can't make these kind of trades all the time or probably even often but it also shouldn't destroy the future either doing it a couple of times here and there.

If you DFA Pagan he would be picked up in a second. (Duffey not so much), but I believe there are not too many teams that have somebody has good as Pagan as their 5th/6th best relief pitcher (Lopez, Duran, Jax, Fulmer, Theilbar). The guy has 55 K's in 37 innings, Now I wouldn't trust him in a late pressure situation but in the 5th and 6th, I would rather have him than most anybody else.

IMO Duran is the prime example if you have a guy with a filthy arm he doesn't need to toil in the minors trying to become a starter for years, bring them up put them in the pen and work on the secondary stuff with the major league coaches. I will assume he could throw 100 the whole time in the minors and had a pretty good curve, but not the others pitches to succeed as a starter? If he proves he can develop that third and fourth pitch stretch him out and give him a chance as a starter later on. I agree with this article the pen looks real good, I hated pagen in the 8th and 9th but as a 5th, 6th or even 7th inning pitcher he is awesome, along with the rest, now Rocco just don't burn them out ?

I believe you, was just pointing out they were wrong, not you, I guess fake new can be in baseball as well. ?

He at least has been a relief pitcher for most of the year.

I honestly don't think it has anything to do with inning or pitch count, he faced 20 guys, all the starters on the twins average right around 21 batters per game. Except Archer and he is below, All the top pitchers in the league average 24-26 as game.

in 2018 he pitched 98.1, 2019 he pitched 123.2, In 21 he pitched 66 plus the Olympic team.

What is even more strange he only faced 18, which is even low for the Twins. Guess that answers the question from the other thread, he is a lower half of the rotation guy. Edit - didn't see the two hit batters, so 20 is right on par, if it was the 4th I believe they would let him come out for the 5th in this situation

To give Rocco credit (Which I never do) maybe he is talking about stretching out differently then we/I am thinking. I think of stretching out as being able to pitch more pitches in a start and in Archer's case it isn't like he is pitching that many less pitches than the other starters, it is that it takes that many more pitches per batter to get an end result. His 77 pitches were almost exactly what Gray (79), Bundy(78), Ryan(82), and Sanchez (81) pitched in the last starts. So maybe what Rocco means by saying "working on stretching out", he means Archer figuring how to better maximize his pitches to have shorter at bats and thus being able to pitch longer in games. I guess I am feeling way more positive today then normal because of the trades yesterday.

IMO it depends on how ace is defined, is it the the old school (pre-covid) 30+ starts 200 plus innings obviously best stating pitcher on the team, then I say he has no chance until he leaves the Twins and then maybe not even then. Or is it the 30 starts 180 plus innings. Then he will more than likely become an ace by next year, I am not sure he tops out any higher than Berrios ever has, not trying to bring up that old debate but is Ryan's future the best guy on a good staff or a good pitcher on good staff/best guy on a mediocre staff? I see the second option. Not to get off topic but I just don't see the twins letting their starting pitchers pitch like St. Louis, Houston, Atlanta or even Seattle does for example, so it will be tough to ever see them have an "ACE". I think they have a philosophy and stick pretty tight to that ( not arguing it is good or bad, just that is there). For example Sonny Gray has been a 5+ inning guy basically is whole career even when he wasn't that great, and the Twins have seemed to limit his innings by 1 each start, and yes I get the injury but he is a 32 pitcher who has in the past missed a couple of starts here and there but really not that many and that he given the chance probably could do more. (Again to keep this on topic, not saying he should or shouldn't be, just that he is not given the same opportunity that other pitchers are the league). To sum it up, I don't see under this FO the Twins having what we used to call an "ACE".

I really hope he doesn't believe that or he doesn't believe anybody that follows Twins believe that.

Can we all agree going forward that Archer should pitch only 4 inning no matter how good he is going and we won't complain if he is pulled after 4 even if he has a no hitter going?

I will add if this trade comes back to haunt the Twins because Povich becomes a good/great starter and the Twins are short starters, it say more about this FO ability to develop starters than this trade.

?, with that being said I am good with the twins trading another prospect years out to put Robertson in the pen this year and if he is good sign him to a cheap deal next year.

I would guess they aren't getting a guy that would be major league ready next year. More the the bottom two guys the Twins sent to Baltimore. or maybe one like like Povich who IMO won't be in the majors next year. They probably get a higher upside guy with the draft pick. But that is just my opinion. And if you are trading one guys for two years down the road why not trade more?

Dyson started one game in the majors in 2013 and pitched in 376 total games.

I am guessing there is little to no chance is in the majors next year. He has a ERA of 5.38 in high A, he will be 23 when next season starts and is averaging less than 5 innings per start.

Because Correa isn't going to return what you think he would.

Spending 35 million dollars to get into first place, then trading said guy for a couple of minor league fillers at the deadline, or keep said guy thus not pissing on the team and the fans and continue to push for the division title. Yup can't see anything wrong with the first option. If the Twins decide to trade CC then Gray, Kepler, Polanco, Urshela should be traded as well. Then beg the fans for a few more years to get this prospect pipeline figured out, because 6 just isn't enough. Sure there will be fans that quit on the team (Me being one) but don't worry they have all those young fans coming to replace us, oh wait....

traded for a 2 time all star at catcher, former all star at 1st coming off a 30 homer season after hitting 13 in 53 games and 34 in 105 games, a second baseman with a WAR of 4.9 in 21 also former all star at SS, All world SS (some could argue the best SS in the game) that cost 35 million dollars, A solid vet at 3B with your 3rd best non pitching prospect biting at his heals. Your 100 million dollar center fielder, A solid two plus WAR right fielder, a former 1st round pick and all world prospect fighting for left. Traded a first round pitcher and top 10 prospect for former all star and top (ish) of the rotation starter. All world Rookie Joe Ryan starting opening day, Bailey Ober as the third start after coming off a 1.2 WAR in his rookie season of 20 starts. Traded for another starter in Paddock, signed two vets and had a slew of pitching prospects just waiting to break though. Yes, I can totally can see how this team wasn't built for winning this year. Going into next year, they will be replacing Sano with Arraez at first, and somebody for Correa and instead of Ober coming back from a strong season he will be coming back from another injured season. As will Maeda and Paddock, and those pitching prospects waiting to break though, it will be a different group trying to break though. So anybody that thinks 23 is a different plan than 22 is dreaming.

Sorry I thought the topic was - My evolving opinion on where the Twins stand I thought it relevant to point out I didn't and don't think the Twins should got get a top pitcher. I also thought it relevant to say my opinion on the FO has evolved from letting them build a consistent team with a pipeline of prospects and trades to I evolving into thinking they haven't and if they can't turn it around this year replacing them might be more on important than letting them continue down the path they have taken us.(Which I thought was looking like a good path and last year was a speed bump, but maybe isn't looking so rosy anymore. And I used examples of way I think that.) I mean it isn't like I was talking about starting pitchers or trades that happened.?‍♂️

I have never been on the Twins need to trade for a stud starting pitcher this year, I just don't believe they would use the pitcher that way. Unless of course they decide they need to to drive up the trading price (IE - what they did with Berrios before trading him last year). They seem pretty consistent on allowing starters pitch to 18-22 batters and that is it. I also don't believe they will sign any stud this off season if there is any left to sign. So sure maybe they will be as good on the offensive/defensive side next year with the same question marks, but having most of the rotation being on innings limit next year, leaves me to believe next year is more of the same as this year. Personally if the Twins fold down the stretch I think it is time for this FO to go. Who have they brought in the last 7 years that will be starting pieces next year? Currently guys on the 40 man this front office: Laranach, Garlick, Contreras, Celestiono, Urshela, Correa, Beckham, Jeffers, Sanchez, Winder, Thielbar, Strotman, Smith, Smeltzer, Sands, Ryan, Romero, Pagan, Paddack, Ober, Megill, Maeda, Jax, Henriquez, Gray, Enlow, Duran, Dobnak, Coulombe, Cotton, Cano, Bundy, Archer, Alcala. Maeda, Smeltzer, Alcala, Duran came from trading guys from the previous regime. ( This FO should get credit for trading for these guys) Does this group give you confidence that this front office are the guys for the job? the top offensive prospect is the guy they took first overall in 2017 draft, the top pitching prospect (Balazovic) is from the previous regime, and the next two guys Martin and SWR are from trading the best pitcher from the previous regime.

So go into next year with the same question marks as this year, Is Larnach the the guy that has had a couple of good stretches or the guy that has a couple of horrible stretches? Is AK the star we all expected or the guy that has been hurt every year since 2018, Can Jeffers be a starting Catcher, and two guys that have never played in the majors (Steer and Wallner), So basically the center field (Buxton), 2B (Arraez) and 3b set (Miranda), and question marks everywhere else, I guess beside having decent utility guys (Celestino and Gordon). Or maybe Kepler stays in RF and Polanco stays and moves Arraez to 1st. Lewis also is a question mark since he has 12 total major league games. Then the starters Gray in the last year of his deal and is a 5/6 inning pitcher an Ryan a good 5 or 6 inning pitcher, Maeda and Paddack coming back from TJ surgery and will be on a innings limit. Then Ober and Winder who also have a injury past and who I assume will also be on inning limits based on the amount of innings they will have pitched this year. This doesn't include the bullpen. This would all be OK IMO if 21 didn't happen or if this team ends up winning the division. But if they fall out of contention this year after last year and NOT going for it when they were good in 19 and 20 (with mostly a team from the previous FO) when they were good, and the reason they didn't go for it was because they were building for a team to be competitive going forward, and then us fans have to deal with this, it should be unacceptable. I mean it isn't like they have a stud pitcher in the minors ready to blow up next year or even a position player (unless we count Lewis who will be 24 in June next year)

To be honest I was never on the get a top end starter, mostly because I don't think the Twins would change their philosophy of around 21/22 batters faced on average a game. Maybe they could try for Rodon and abuse the crap out of him the rest of the year (think Brewers with CC) and let him walk, but I don't think they would do that either. I have been on the need relief pitchers and need them fast and would have been willing to overpay the last few weeks, still think they need relief pitchers but waiting until the last second wasn't the right play IMO because if they get another Dyson situation there is no fixing that, but if they got a guy a few weeks ago, well then they still have the deadline. As for the prospects, it is somewhat depressing they have no real top end type talent close, and I am guessing people are going to be saying that is because they graduated some many guys which I would agree with if those guys would have been top end talents unless I am wrong only Lewis and AK were considered top 50-100 guys, I mean Martin and SWR were but lets not go there.

I would rather the Twins get into the playoffs then not, but I totally get what you are saying. The question I have for everybody is who are the prospects in the minors that are going to help this team be great and when realistically is great? could the Twins trade 5 guys in their stop 30 and still be OK or is that the end of building? For me next year looks quite a bit like this year, hope the starting pitchers stay healthy, hope the younger guys get better (Larnach, Miranda, Jeffers, AK), Lewis is healthy and wins a starting spot (somewhere), and maybe have a couple of pitching prospects step up. To me I see the 23 Twins in a similiar situation next year as they are this year, by this I mean in first or fighting for first with all three teams being a little better than this year. With that said I am not trading Lewis (unless it is for Othani or Soto) but anybody else could be traded for the right deal. There are plenty I would trade for a guy for 2 months, but most would require some team control.