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TwinsDr2021

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  1. TwinsDr2021
    https://www.minneapolismn.gov/government/government-data/datasource/crime-dashboard/ The three year average doesn't match your statement. for example homicide in MPLS in 2019 was 48, this year is down from last year though (which is good) Both sides if you are going to make blanket statement have the numbers to back it up.
  2. TwinsDr2021
    It is almost like writing an agenda driven political editorial and using baseball as the analogy shouldn't be allowed on this site?
  3. TwinsDr2021
    https://www.sfgate.com/crime/article/San-Francisco-crime-Chesa-Boudin-London-Breed-16751930.php
  4. TwinsDr2021
    Spend a lot of your time at night in the south side? Every major city has places people don't want to go and great places that love to go to. I have been to down town Chicago area and while SUPER expensive I have always felt safe (I also have friends and relatives that live in area's where they won't let me visit at night), same with MPLS, I have been to San Fran suburbs and they are some of the most beautiful places I have every been to (also SUPER expensive) and I have been to downtown San Fran and some areas are the worst place I have ever been, I mean the 40 plus businesses that have closed there didn't do it for no reason. Also as a gold caretaker, calling people names is beneath you.
  5. TwinsDr2021
    you are correct after dropping 13 million in 21 (from 182 million to 169 million) it has went up the last few years and in 23 was 206 million, on the other hand the state of MN is down around 1000 officers and Minneapolis has dropped from 892 in 2018 to 585, so didn't get anything might be a stretch.
  6. TwinsDr2021
    Honest question, which part of my post did you disagree with? Down to the part where I used IMO are real facts. All the good pitchers when pitching well and effectively are usually allowed to pitch a third and maybe into the 4th time though. Lopez in 11 of his starts faced 27 or more batters, Gray 4 times, Blake Snell did it once, but almost every start had 90 plus pitches. Logan Webb did it like 14 times, yet generally ended up around the 90 - 100 pitch count. These stats are easy to find, pull up a pitcher's game log check batters faced and pitches and generally the story of the game is told right. I am pretty confident the pitchers that are good and keep their pitch count down, pitch more innings and face more batters. (and some are allowed to pitch a few more pitches)
  7. TwinsDr2021
    There really isn't an stats that show pitchers aren't allowed to pitch to a lineup a third time. Ober had two starts where he wasn't allowed to pitch to any player a third time. Ryan had only two as well. Maeda had 4. Kyle Gibson didn't have any. If you look at the stats on average a starting pitcher faces between 22 and 24 batters. Which means they are facing the top 4 to 6 guys a third time. And rarely facing the 7-9 guys. Ober average start he faced 22 guys, Ryan 23 guys, Gray 23.5, Lopez 25, Maeda 19, if you go though most teams you will find very similar results. No taking anything away from what you are saying, I am just pointing out when people talk about being allowed to pitch the third time, doesn't really mean what they are saying. It also isn't crazy to say the Twins starters pitch more innings than most was because the FO set the staff up pretty darn well last year, being 7 deep at the start, they didn't need to use starters or have all that many real short starts. I personally believe when good pitchers are pitching well it really doesn't matter that much who they are facing, they mostly get in trouble when it is taking too many pitches to get the outs and you end up with 5 inning starts, not because of the third time, but they have hit or are close to hitting the top end of their pitch count. IMO
  8. TwinsDr2021
    How does somebody with 188 career games and a OPS+ 95 get a bad rap? He isn't terrible, but he will be 27 in February. I hope he starts in AAA does really, really well and forces his way to Minneapolis, but between him and Wallner they haven't done enough for both to be GIVEN a starting job on a division winning team. You can do it with one and should do it for one. I personally would go with the younger guy and has done more in 94 career games than the older guy in twice as many games.
  9. TwinsDr2021
    If the idea is to trade Kepler and give the not so young guys the job, then no you don't trade him. If it is part of a larger plan of bringing somebody else in to take a outfield spot (presumably cheaper and maybe younger) than it makes perfect sense. Division winning teams that only won 87 games and lost their second best starting pitcher and one of the best depth rotation guys in the league shouldn't go into the next season with a plan of an outfield of injury prone, unknown older prospects and utility players as the plan, with the back ups to those player more injury prone unknown older prospects. Could it work? absolutely, could it be disastrous? absolutely and this outcome is more likely
  10. TwinsDr2021
    You have to pay California tax if you’re a resident, a part-year resident, or a nonresident who earns income in the state. So Ohtani will have to pay California tax on the money he earns from the Dodgers over the next 10 years, but from there it gets complicated. When it comes to deferred payments, if Ohtani is not living in California and not with the Dodgers, he won't have to pay California taxes. Interestingly, deferred compensation is not considered earned or taxable income until you receive it. https://www.sportskeeda.com/baseball/fact-check-is-shohei-ohtani-s-dodgers-contract-exempt-california-tax-examining-ambiguity-surrounding-historic-mlb-deal
  11. TwinsDr2021
    If you mean basically take nothing for 10 years then get it , probably not too many. But for a team like the Twins with a fairly high state tax, why wouldn't they offer it to a player? They could have offered Correa the same contract and deferred 200 million to say he is age 44-50 when he likely won't be in MN and gets the close to 20 million in tax saving? Look at the money Betts and Freeman deferred.
  12. TwinsDr2021
    Interesting nobody has mentioned the amount he is going to save in Taxes by doing this. He will not be living in California when his contract is done thus reducing his state tax by 13%. He will either be in Japan or a state that doesn't pay income tax. Not sure what Japan will tax him, but if he moved to Florida that would save him around 100 million.
  13. TwinsDr2021
    You might want to find better guys. Tettleton was in the majors age 23 as a catcher, and not repeating AA at age 26 as an outfielder. I have never said that older prospects can't be good or have good careers. It is just very rare for every Whit Merrified there are thousands of guys that didn't pan out. Gallo's and Sano only 30 maybe there is still time for them to break out like Champ Summers.
  14. TwinsDr2021
    He is the type of player that proves my point. drafted out of college at age 19 and then went straight to A ball and played there for two years and at age 23 played AA and was in the majors. From age 23 though 27 and you can see only played about half the games each season which I assume was because of injury because he wasn't playing more than a handful of games in the minors. I don't really think he made a sudden jump, he looks like he stopped getting injured and actually starting playing a good amount of games. So I would say he compares to AK, not Keirsey. There is a really good article on Driveline about about pitchers and debuting in the majors (average debut age for a pitcher 24.8). (Talks about Age, Body Type), one thing they say about age. Player age is an important variable in the process of projecting and assessing the true value of a prospect. The importance of age in player development is due to an existing aging curve, which explains that you can expect a player’s performance to decline over time as they age due to a variety of factors. On average, pitchers saw a bump in velocity on their heater from around age 22 to 26 years of age. At ~27 years old, fastball velocity is expected to decline. It is important to note survivorship bias, which explains that we can only account for the older players that stayed in the big leagues, and can’t account for players who were released or retired in the sample. If anybody cares google - The Makeup of a Pitcher Debuting in the Major Leagues
  15. TwinsDr2021
    Kepler in his age 26 season was 20th in the MVP voting with a .855 OPS in the majors and Keirsey was repeating AA with a .850 OPS. Comparing the two is unfair to both players. Keirsey will most likely not even play in the majors this year unless things go extremely wrong at the MLB level.
  16. TwinsDr2021
    I also hope he stays in the organization players like this can be good depth, But looking at the history of baseball guys like him rarely if ever turn into anything but a bit player at best. (Not meant for you) but people need to realize not every Twins prospect is the exception to the rule, and not every Twins prospect will turn into a future All Star type player. I have read on here Lee is a future Correa and maybe better, Martin is a all start type player in Kiermaier, Lewis is the next Jeter, Walker is a future HOF type player, Julien is the next Arraez or better. ERod is the next Soto, Raya the next future Cy Young award winner and ON and ON. It is great to have hope and be an optimist but with those type of expectations the odds say ever one of them will be a let down.
  17. TwinsDr2021
    A 26 year old putting up those numbers mostly in AA (where he was almost 2 years older than the average player), take a deep dive, he wasn't even a top 5 Center fielder in that league and every player that was better was younger, and some much, much younger.
  18. TwinsDr2021
    He will be 27 May 13th and has played 39 games in AAA. You never regret not protecting a player like this. If you have regrets you should have brought him up at the end of last year and figured out what you have. But I am sure the Twins know what they have, an old minor league player., who very likely will play in the majors for minute. (I wish him well)
  19. TwinsDr2021
    There is only 1 third baseball that is good enough and cheap enough to move Lewis off of third and that is Henderson. When it comes to good hitters I don't think there is such as thing as redundant, and at this time in their careers Miranda and AK can't be considered too good not to improve on (might not be the biggest need the Twins face but for the right deal it would be a no brainer). With no extra innings games there 1458 games that need to be played by 9 positions it doesn't take a degree in Math to figure out how to get everybody their games.
  20. TwinsDr2021
    Baseball Trade Values has his value between 52 and 78, which is higher than any Twins not named Lewis so I see no chance of this happening (Wallner, Varland and ERod or Julien and Ober is what you are looking at for a trade in terms of value). But if Tampa were to sell real low, for example a couple of low A ball players (which they won't) you do it, because you can never have too many assets. You put him at first and figure out where and how to play Julien and AK.
  21. TwinsDr2021
    So you are comparing him to Johnson, Heilman, Moses, Plouffe, Perkins, Waldrop, fox, Rainville, Garza, Sanchez, Parmelee, Revere, Hick, Gutierrez, Hunt, Bashore, Wimmers, Michael, Harriosn, Boyd, Berrios, Bard, Stewart, Gordon, Jay, Kirilloff (1st round picks between 2000 - 2016) and I could go further back to the likes of Garbe, Mills, LeCroy, Cuddyer, Redman, Miller, Walker, Mucker, Barcelo, Seranfini, Stahoviak, McCarty, Cumming (back to 1990), Two players since then has more WAR Hunter and Mauer. I don't think two top 20 MVP's seasons count as somebody that didn't pan out, sure we all were hoping for a string of all star appearances and a future HOF but if that is what is considered panning out, well I think most first round picks don't pan out.
  22. TwinsDr2021
    I don't disagree with your take. In all reality they don't have enough pitchers on the 40 (no team does). There are some pitchers on the Twins 40 man that are question marks to say the least. And IMO after watching what happened in 21, 22, 23 I think 23 was the best and that was the year they went with depth and as the current pitching staff is designed they don't have much of that. We have seen just about every young former starter struggle in the move to the pen (except Duran and maybe Jax, but lets be honest Jax isn't Duran) and maybe this is the year Alcala, Winder, and Sands figure it out but if they (and Funderburk) struggle again who is the solution? The good thing about relief pitchers is they can be moved up and down the pecking order, It makes the pen so much better having a stewart basically take Jax's job and Jax take Pagan's job, and Pagan take Sands job for example then not.
  23. TwinsDr2021
    Well with the current 40 man they have 7 starters (Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddack, Varland, SWR and Headrick) so I don't think Varland can be counted on as a relief pitcher. They have 10 relief pitchers with at least 4 easily could be upgraded - Winder, Sands, Alcala, Balazovic. And three that could be upgraded on just to be pushed down the pecking order a bit. Jax Thielbar and Funderburk. One question mark - Canterino. Which means they have 2 relief pitchers, Stewart, Duran. So the answer to the question is absolutely they need help.
  24. TwinsDr2021
    I think the championship has less to do with these three as the starting pitching, relief pitching and offensive/defensive depth. These three players can overcome some of that but not all of it.
  25. TwinsDr2021
    Buxton has a career WAR of 21, pretty sure that isn't the definition of didn't pan out. With that said he needs to stay healthy.
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