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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    Probably about right. Now subtract the operating costs. I think it's reasonable to expect profits no more than 10-15M
  2. TheLeviathan
    That number is based on San Diego's current subscribers. Given this is what viewership looked like two years ago: I think 40,000 is likely generous.
  3. TheLeviathan
    Correct. And my numbers were best case scenario.
  4. TheLeviathan
    I agree, this is the way forward unless MLB has the guts to 100% share media revenue. But I never see this model returning even half of previous levels of revenue. It is rght for fans, but is that much of a haircut viable to owners?
  5. TheLeviathan
    Right, but you are looking at 10-15M total. Eyeballs can see your product, but at 30% of the previous return.
  6. TheLeviathan
    I don't think you're going to be able to do both without running into all kinds of problems with blackouts or negotiations. You're splitting the pot and everyone will drop their rates since they aren't getting exclusivity.
  7. TheLeviathan
    Using this as a guide that would be about $400 per commercial. ($10 per 1000. That's 40 x 10 for 40k people) Let's call it $500 for fun. (This would be top end then) 5 commercials per inning break plus pre and post would be about 60 commercials per broadcast? That's about 30k per broadcast. Which works out to be about 5M per season. So 10M total with ads and subscribers. And that's the top end of what I can argue.
  8. TheLeviathan
    How much do you think they can sell to advertisers when it's only 40,000 people (at most) watching?
  9. TheLeviathan
    Well, perhaps relative to last year's debacle in this specific market, you might see that jump. But overall, compared to 5 years ago, you're going to have less people paying into the model and less advertising dollars. The Padres have a rabid fan base and they are making 4.5M. Compare that to RSN deals at 60M and I can't see that as any reasonable way to argue is "plenty of money". It might still be worth doing, but it's a massive drop.
  10. TheLeviathan
    Even then, with the extra local money, they're not making up tens of millions of dollars. This model is a major drop in revenue if it's the path forward. I don't know any other way around that. It gets your product in front of people (a good thing!) but at a steep discount to your bottom line.
  11. TheLeviathan
    Can you explain where/how you see the number of people increasing by 2 to 4 times?
  12. TheLeviathan
    Thank you for finding those numbers. The Twins had a crappy deal that was paying 40M. You're looking at a 90% haircut going direct to consumer. I've been saying it for years - that model is NOT viable.
  13. TheLeviathan
    Apple or Amazon or Google may swoop in and save them. But make no mistake...unless non-baseball watchers are subsidizing the payouts, the payouts are going to drop substantially.
  14. TheLeviathan
    Correct, this reckoning has been coming for a long time now. Satellite companies were the first canaries - as DirectTv and others saw their numbers drop by the millions, the cable model was next. MLB loves all the money it gets in some markets with local contracts, but it needs to take the product nationally and split the revenue. The direct-to-consumer model isn't viable IMO. The amount of money lost would be crippling.
  15. TheLeviathan
    Goldschmidt might have been the worst "Bang for your buck" player in all of baseball last year. What makes the Padres so successful is that their GM has a real knack for when to move on and off players. There is no complacency and he has the skill to do it well. That said, they haven't won anything yet and have had some miserable seasons to go with their good ones. (Their season last year, at 82-80, was a similar disappointment. Just happened differently) But we should DEFINITELY be taking some cues from that organization.
  16. TheLeviathan
    Do we have any numbers on how viable that is long term? Padres and Diamondbacks went to this as a patch (the Twins should have as well) but they are making substantially less money this way in all likelihood. And maybe that's just the pill they have to swallow going forward. Padres are making 4.5M off of it. Yeah - good as dead. That isn't a viable strategy. It might've made fans happy to have it on air temporarily but it's not a solution.
  17. TheLeviathan
    I'm here to tell you that Option A is a bad one too. Sure, to hardcore baseball fans it seems great, but I guarantee you it's as good as dead at that price point. Casual fans are not going to spent $20 a month for nothing but baseball. Part of the dilemma here is that they waited too long for a viable long term solution. They kept hitching their wagon to the death throws as long as they could milk a few bucks in the short term.
  18. TheLeviathan
    No one needs reminders about that toxicity. But I should be clear because I conflated two ideas in my head and misspoke, the Twins had the best record in baseball from May-mid August and were in the top 4 of the AL. Fans weren't showing up in droves. It's no longer strictly about winning, not in this market.
  19. TheLeviathan
    Might give away your play call? Not sure. If the fear about Bradbury is that intense....that's really saying something. I thought he has played pretty well so far, even if Lawrence ate him a few times.
  20. TheLeviathan
    This team had the second best record in the AL in July. They were playing a fun, high scoring brand of baseball. What did Target Field look like? Ghost town. The disconnect is deeper than wins and losses. It's a culmination of decades of malfeasance on the part of the organization. Their broadcasting plans have always been pure foolishness. They thought partnering with a streaming service charging $25 a month was a viable platform. They avoided opportunity after opportunity to put their product in front of their fans. They have systematically killed baseball loving culture in this town. The on-field product hasn't helped (playoff streak, Yankee dominance, etc) but ownership has always been condescending, cheap, and idiotic. They're reaping the rewards.
  21. TheLeviathan
    If those teams are smart...and if the Twins don't want to fumble this for the eleventy-th season in a row....they should go to MLB and propose a league solution for all of them. Usher in a new era of non-stupid broadcasting of the sport.
  22. TheLeviathan
    Maki had a bunch of scrap heap dudes, rookies, and scrubs and they pitched behind a largely weak defense. The man deserves better.
  23. TheLeviathan
    I find it even more strange because baseball is trying to create more of a running game with rule changes. It's likely that trend continues. Why wouldn't we want to be ahead of that curve? Look at the difference it has made for Cleveland, Cincy, and Milwaukee. Those teams (well, not so much Cincy) don't have a ton of punch in their lineups put plate a lot of extra runs just by utilizing speed. We were dead last in steals Speed is an asset in the field and makes avoiding long run-scoring droughts less likely. It is my number one thing I want this organization to rethink.
  24. TheLeviathan
    I heard Provus tell Barreiro that he asked Falvey about pinch hitting too early in games. (His example was about removing Wallner in the 5th) He stated that Falvey said they are "definitely" looking to change that approach.
  25. TheLeviathan
    That's fair. Interestingly...even with the absolute nose dive at the end....this team still finished 11th in all of MLB in OPS. This was probably the right move, but the Twins weren't actually as bad as they were at the end. Way too streaky though.
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