Yes, Correia has more value than the failed upside arms.....but when you take incredibly foolish risks (Pelfrey and Harden), you need to do something with upside IMO. As I said, Correia is fine, but he's only well-justified if you take some smarter, more expensive risks like guys you have suggested. (McCarthy for example) Ultimately, McCarthy didn't turn out, but he was a much smarter bet than Harden or Pelfrey.