TheLeviathan
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Everything posted by TheLeviathan
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I do think it's a combo of things and you're right that athleticism does progress over time. I guess my thinking is that in a playing field that isn't getting any larger, there is only so much room on the field. Yes, the offensive athletes are even better, but that doesn't make the playing surface larger. It's a distinct advantage for the defense to narrow down/shrink the room the offense has to operate. The offense has no such counter now that they've maxed out the vertical spacing they can achieve. (That's why I think the late 90s, early 2000s saw a huge jump. Vertical spacing became a huge factor. Defenses have now largely eliminated that with 2 deep looks while still having enough athleticism to shrink the intermediate and shallow areas of the field) It's my explanation for the pivot to jumbo sets. Or LA running 4 tight ends. They know they can no longer stretch the field as an advantage, so they're going to rely on winning by pure size instead. There will be more ebbs and flows, but I think one thing that will be here to stay is that defenses are going to be much, much more difficult to attack because they can simply defend far more of the field, far faster, than they ever have. The only solution (and I'd wager we start hearing about it soon) is to widen the playing surface.
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I agree and what I'm about to say may add to your thoughts, it may be a slight alternative, I'm not exactly sure how to frame it: I think it has to do with the leaps we've seen in athleticism on the defensive side the last decade. I'm old enough to remember what the athletic profiles of guys in 2010 looked like. Would Chad Greenway even get on an NFL team today? Could Jared Allen be as good as the guys now like Parsons? Every time an offense steps on the field they square off with 300+ pound guys that can run a 4.7. Edge rushers with get-off an speed totally unheard of not that long ago. Linebackers that can run like safeties. Safeties that can cover and tackle. So many hybrid-types that are multi-faceted super athletes. IMO - this has seriously squeezed the space on the field. Forcing the passing lanes, running lanes, and opportunities to be much more difficult to find. I wish I had a more quantifiable analysis for it, but it's what I believe to be the issue. (Coupled with an ever increasing drought of capable NFL offensive linemen. That is another huge piece IMO.)
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There wasn't much more after that. What struck me was how much the penalties and confusion are on him. I assumed it was a combo of things, but Arif made a compelling case that JJ is struggling in the huddle. A lack of command there definitely worries me. Like I said, I'm all in on this process and I'll stand by it being the right path no matter the outcome. But there is a LOT of work to be done. His leg whip, pitching style throwing motion has to be totally reworked. Also (especially for those Thor Nystrom folks) the issues with JJ not being able to throw to the left have a Mitch Trubisky trajectory right now.
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Arif is a brilliant writer and analyst.
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I do think having a rookie scale QB for seasons 4/5 is enormously beneficial and should be part of the goal of drafting and developing a young QB. But if you hit on that QB you will have to pay them. When you do, you will have to draft well to stay in contention. Part of why KC has stayed in the mix was that they nailed the 2022 draft in getting Karlaftis, McDuffie, Bryan Cook, and Leo Chanel. Rashee Rice in 2023. Right now, KAM's draft success makes the odds of making McCarthy work dubious no matter which angle you take at it. He won't be adding talent to support him now or extend the window into the future.
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/offseason What a barnburner! Glad we're all set! -
Yup, that injury last year was a killer. Even if he never got elevated over Darnold, at least they could've worked on his base every day. As it is....they need to use those 10 picks, reload the roster with youth, and try again.
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Right, next years class is pretty trash. Which aligns well with 2027 being a time to admit failure IMO.
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I think that game with the Rams is exactly why we moved on and were right to do so. Go ahead and look at the Seahawks schedule. Prior to the Rams game there was ONE good defense on that list: Houston. Other than that he literally played all of the bottom 5 or 10 passing defense in the league.
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I think @Aggies7 nailed it. You build up a support to let him learn and grow in a situation that isn't a dumpster fire. I think they went a bit too far with that (looking at you Jonathan Allen) but overall I don't blame them for it. The Wilfs demand success and the leadership probably knew that JJ was a work in progress so they hoped the rest of the team would be able to carry him during his development. Thing is....they're 4-6 and could pretty easily be 7-3 or 8-2 without blowing the Eagles, Ravens, Steelers, and Bears games that were all pretty damn winnable. JJ has just been worse than they probably thought. (And hurt)
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I think I give him all of 2026 as well. I understand why others wouldn't, but I want him to have an offseason working on mechanics. It took Josh Allen some time, I'm willing to be patient. This is what I signed up for in moving on from mid-QB to swinging for a stud.
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I think this is it. He has his receivers gearing up to stand in front of a bullet all the time. A bullet that won't even hit them in the chest and sometimes will force them to lunge backwards, jump 10 feet in the air, etc. They're bracing to catch like they have no idea where and what type of ball to anticipate.
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This one isn't on KOC. He ran more, schemed well, had the offense in a position to make big plays. In the ol' pie chart there needs to be about 70% on McCarthy. He was that bad.
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I don't want to hear any excuses about protection or his hand - these are bad decisions compounded by bad throws.
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Missed a wide open Hockenson.
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Protection was a bit of a mess but that was a pick either way. His recognition is too late.
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Plus Hockenson was more open to his left
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I say that and then a TE handles Turner solo.
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D came to play. McCarthy needs to settle the F down. Turner is showing up today.
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Between Borgschulte and Beauregards I'm starting to wonder if there is some secret analytical correlation between "names that sound like they'd be Jean Luc Picard's nemesis" and "hirability to the Twins".
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Thanks for putting this out there! I'm newer to DnD via Baldur's Gate 3 and had no idea this was a thing!
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The part I want to point out is that if we use the same flimsy analysis of "hits" and apply it to our division rivals.....the Packers are drafting gods. The Bears are super competent. The Lions deserve a monument. They're on a historical bender of drafting awesomeness. All of them! They're whomping those links by 40, 50% in some cases! I guess it is possible that all three of those teams are that god-like. It's just highly unlikely. Almost like the analysis is purposely skewed rather than objective. Part of me wants to pull up games that were started, snap counts, awards, and counting stats to show just how preposterous of a blowout it is. But the reality is that this isn't a rational conversation. I'm trying to talk someone out of an article of faith and no amount of reason is going to make that case. I give Kwesi a B for free agency. I'd like to see him get another year, probably two. I just live on Earth 616 and his draft history blows. Any argument to the contrary is literal nonsense.
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I'm just going to edit this and tap out. I'm arguing with a position that holds Blackmon (cut) and Ingram (Benched and dumped) are "hits". This isn't worth arguing about.
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I think it just becomes circular. I think any fair-minded analysis of the results is, at best, that the team went from abject failure to uncertain. So, could you be hopeful that the current uncertainty leaves open the possibility of good results? Sure. Would that person have any rational, evidenced-based reason for that optimism? Absolutely not. All rational, evidence-based analysis is going to conclude that the Vikings have drafted poorly. You're entitled to an opinion based on optimism. Where opinions like that run into trouble is when they try to argue against evidence with their optimism. It's faith vs. fact. Faith away! Just don't try to drag that opinion into the realm of fact.
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You can't hide behind context and then also ignore context as it suits your argument. If anyone deserves a sigh, it's for that kind of tactic. It's simply not even attempting to have a fair discussion. I went out of my way to look at two teams right in our own division. I even ignored the one that would be a blowout vs. Kwesi on purpose out of an attempt at fairness. And your response is "Well...I don't know about the other 30 teams....". "Let me cherry pick an argument about pass rushers on Green Bay" (And ignore 3/5 of an OL, an entire WR room, 6 defensive starters....like....WTF?) C'mon man. I've even said I'm not at a point where I fire him yet. I want to see the 10 picks we have next year and how they're used. I'm just not living a fairy tale where the prior results are anything other than a failure. That's a fact. That's reality. This alternate reality you're living is fine for you. Enjoy. Stop trying to pretend you can rationally defend it.
