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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    Span was coming off of a 3.9 WAR season and he currently has 6.111 years of service. This was his first year that he could have become a FA. So this is very comparable to Dozier except they locked up Span one year earlier than Dozier is at now. Two option years is rare for any kind of contract but it has happened. Carl Crawford had his first two FA years bought out with team options. Longoria's contract is even more famous and had 2 FA years bought out but that was rare circumstances (signed before he played a MLB game). I'm sure there are other examples but I really don't care to go around and look for more examples.
  2. kab21
    No. If Dozier completely blows out his knee he has nothing. He will come to the table for the same reasons that Span and countless others came to the table pre-arb. A guaranteed 20-30M sets him up for life at the expense of having 12-15M/yr options during his FA years. He trades financial upside for complete financial security and probably gets 2-3M the first season (first big payday) instead of the MLB min.
  3. kab21
    No, right now he has zero guaranteed money at all. It's very unlikely but something could happen to him and his career might not recover. Dozier is coming to the table if there is guaranteed money. It doesn't have to be more than he will make in arb. But it does have to be enough guaranteed money. He's not taking a massive discount and the options for his FA seasons have to be in the 10+M/yr range (possibly 12-15M/yr).
  4. kab21
    Dozier would absolutely be interested in a contract that bought out his arb years and included 1-2 options for his FA years. He was a late round draft pick and has made the MLB min so far. If he had 4 years of guaranteed cash then he is interested. The only question is how much guaranteed cash is needed.
  5. kab21
    The names of I know of but they aren't in the last few years. Wainwright had a couple of good seasons before needing TJ. Ervin Santana has pitched about 5 seasons without needing it and is the only successful long term example. Brett Anderson pitched a season before needing his 2nd surgery. But that sort of reinforces the point. There are very few and usually it's just a matter of time.
  6. kab21
    I doubt we could give Nolasco or Pelfrey away. Teams are looking for better options than that.
  7. kab21
    That's always a risk. If you use this argument then you won't sign a pitcher ever. Darvish was absolutely on my DO NOT BUY list for fantasy baseball after last season's injury. Tanaka is also. This is also why I think Nolasco will have TJ.
  8. kab21
    It's funny how Span is held up as an example of contract very much in the Twins favor after the point. Believe me, these same discussions were held 5 years ago with Span since he was also older and pre-arb. His contract might not seem expensive now but that is partly due to salaries inflating big time in the last 5 years. The other thing is that Span's contract was considered to be an awful signing after he slumped the next season and got injured the following season. This was a contract that wasn't always considered to be ridiculously in the Twins favor in the early and middle part of the contract. As far as the Dozier extension goes we don't know what the terms are. The best terms imo are guaranteeing the arb years at reasonable amounts and getting two reasonable priced team options tacked on at the end. That gives the Twins cost certainty and more team control. This wasn't an extension that critically needed to be done (Hughes did despite a similar level of complaining) but if done correctly it doesn't hurt the Twins either.
  9. kab21
    I barely even check in the during the offseason anymore. I am absolutely swamped right now.
  10. kab21
    How is 3B a new position? He might have played a little SS his first US season but he's been at 3B basically his entire MiLB career (a short one). He might not play the new position well but it's a position of less damage. 3B is pretty important defensively.
  11. kab21
    Why are people so insistent to rag on the poor (or dreadful in their words) OF defense but willing to overlook the impact of Sano's poor defense? His bat plays everywhere and is potentially elite everywhere.
  12. kab21
    I think people will be saying different things about Sano's defense when they actually see him playing in MLB games. And I think it will be an overreaction at that point but I completely expect the analysis to change. Sano doesn't lose much value by moving off of 3B. He has huge potential due to his bat at any position. Playing a bad 3B isn't the boost to make him an all-star level player.
  13. kab21
    The union cares about anything that gives them leverage. They might not care about how much a 16 yr old Dominican signs for but they care about how they can use this to get something else. The top related thing on their agenda is to completely get rid of the penalties for signing FA's.
  14. kab21
    4 months of anticipation.
  15. kab21
    I don't think this a problem that the Twins will face during the season. Sano is not coming up until late June even if he is killing it. That's the reality of baseball economics. At that point all of Mauer, Vargas, Hunter and Arcia need to be healthy and performing (in addition to Plouffe and Sano). those odds seem like 1,000,000 to 1. If all 6 are doing great then it's a good problem to have. In addition to that it assumes that Sano is playing defense at an MLB quality level. People seem to be hoping for the best when I would be surprised if he isn't the equivalent to Arcia at 3B (or worse).
  16. kab21
    I have never said that he was not good defensively. I have clearly said that we don't really know how good he is defensively. There is absolutely no information out there that indicates that his defense is anywhere close to MLB ready as you claim.
  17. kab21
    I remain unconvinced that the Twins could have easily have gotten a player that was good at anything (defense or offense). I think that there's a good chance that the Twins could have done worse than Hunter. The important thing is that Hunter is on a one year contract so he won't block any prospects. When you are shopping in the one year stopgap category you really can't afford to be choosy. I expect the Twins to be looking for long term solutions that improve the defense. That doesn't mean that they should overreact when looking for a one year stopgap and end up with someone that is awful.
  18. kab21
    I think Morneau is a pretty good example of how it can take time to come back from concussions. IIRC Morneau wasn't able to do offseason workouts for a couple of offseasons due to the concussion and the wrist injury. He was finally able to do some offseason workouts and he had a nice season again last year.
  19. kab21
    Surprised the article doesn't talk about how Rasmus's father would give him advice that disagreed with the team advice. Or that his father would start giving suggestions to the team on what should be done. That's stuff that coaches in HS have to deal with and not the big leagues. Rasmus is talented and made sense in some ways (can play CF and not be awful offensively) but he's a risk in the clubhouse.
  20. kab21
    Willingham isn't here anymore and there really isn't an internal option to replace him. Nunez started 16 games in the OF/DH. Colabello got 220 PA's between DH and OF. Herrmann started 15 games in the OF. Kubel got 176 PA's between DH and OF. That's a lot of AB's to guys that were almost certainly going to be bad players. I think it would have been great to get a really good player with a future but do you have any idea how hard that type of player is to find or acquire. In addition to that I'm not sure the Twins need to spend the money or trade assets on that type of player with several guys that should be ready to be promoted in the next year or two. Hunter is cheap (really he is) and he's on a 1 yr contract so he doesn't block anyone long term.
  21. kab21
    Hicks shouldn't be given anything at this point. Certainly not two more months as a starter. If he wants to start then he better be able to outplay a 4th OF'er type. The best usage would be a platoon of Schafer and Hicks. Just give me a bridge until Buxton is ready and then each of them can be 4th OFers.
  22. kab21
    No. Recent scouting reports matter. CS% and F% are incredibly poor metrics to use to evaluate a catcher's defense. At this point we don't know how good his defense is. Just because he was rated good defensively as a HS'er doesn't mean that it translated to the pros and there is absolutely nothing to suggest that he should be pushed through the system when his bat (with upside) has shown that it's not ready.
  23. kab21
    Your sources are 2-3 years old. Yes, he has good defensive tools but that in no way suggests at all that he is anything that you billed him as. In addition to that all of those articles suggests that he has really good offensive upside and continuing to promote him when he has struggled offensively doesn't help the bat progress.
  24. kab21
    After last season (or several seasons) I would be happy to have a middle of the pack (23/45) OF'er on the team. No more Nunez, Clete Thomas, Wilkin Ramirez, and other AAAA/utility IF'er types starting please.
  25. kab21
    Something has completely gone wrong. The Twins enter spring training with a CF competition of Hicks and Schafer. Rosario could enter into the equation at some point but he's the longshot. I like him long term but he played almost no OF in 2012 and 2013 and only played about 70 games there last year. I think he could be the 2015 Danny Santana that gets called up in May to take over CF but I think it's in his best interests as a prospect to spend some time in the minors working on his hitting and defense. Schafer is best off at the 4th OF'er position but unless Hicks shows a lot of improvement then Schafer is the best option as a placeholder until Buxton (or Rosario) are called up.
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