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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    It's certainly possible but unlikely. The reason that is unlikely is that Cruz struck out about 25% of the time in the minors with a 2.5 K/BB ratio and hit close to .300. Walker is considerably worse in all categories. Why is that important? Because those numbers rarely improve when someone goes to the majors. They usually get worse. There is one similarity that is worth looking at though. Cruz's numbers (K rate and K/BB) until low A ball were similar to Walker's and then Cruz made improvements in A+ ball. If people go way back to the BYTO days there were discussions about why 2006-2008 Chris Parmelee couldn't be successful in the majors like Adam Dunn. That sounds preposterous but Parmelee was a 3 outcome player early in his career. He hit HR's, BB'd and K'd a lot. That analysis neglected that Dunn was a .300 MiLB hitter that became a .240 MLB hitter. But maybe ABW can maintain his MiLB rates as he progresses to the majors and maintain the power. It's not unheard of to have similar K and K/BB rates as you move up but if MiLB pitchers can find that many holes in his swing then it seems like MLB pitchers will find many more. This is also one reason that I'm lukewarm on promoting Sano and Buxton immediately. Their OPS is great considering their age and inexperience but their plate discipline is not (especially Buxton's).
  2. kab21
    For this season there is no doubt that you keep as a RP. Stretching someone out after an entire college baseball season (earlier start) sounds like a bad idea. Next spring you stretch him out to be a starter. Would the Twins actually go against convention and call Jay up in august? This now gives them at least 3 hard throwing potentially dominant RP'ers to call up with Meyer (supposedly moving back to the rotation) and Burdi being the other two.
  3. kab21
    I would keep both of them down for one more month (all star game). A big part of that is to have a little more sustained success after a year off. The other part is that I'm interested in seeing what Vargas/Rosario/Hunter/Hicks can do with everyday playing time. It's not like the current starting features Nunez or Robinson too often.
  4. kab21
    I'm okay with this pick. Not because jay is awesome but I'm also underwhelmed by the other options. Jay is at least intriguing based on stuff. It could be worse. they could have taken a quick to the majors pitcher with mediocre stuff.
  5. kab21
    The only rational explanation is that there was a message to Kennys in the demotion. The nice thing is that they haven't made it public which is usually the kiss of death in the organization.
  6. kab21
    I'm on board with this if the Twins scouts really like him. The only question is that there doesn't seem to a lot of conviction that he is a top 6 guy. The downside is that the Twins lose a year of development time by waiting. One interesting aspect of the draft slotting is that it is actually a benefit to consolidate your picks into one draft. For example the Twins would be in an outstanding position with the #7 and #20 (estimate). They would be the team that could take the guy that dropped due to signability (Manaea for example) and make it work with the extra 5% and possibly take a few underslot picks in rds 4-10.
  7. kab21
    I expect Rosario to come back to earth a bit but Rosario is the option for everyone that has lectured on and on that the Twins didn't care about OF defense. Not a lot of options other than putting a Shane Robinson on the corner currently. Perhaps Danny Ortiz but I wouldn't expect much offense from him either.
  8. kab21
    Please make it happen. A potential defensive anchor that can shoot. They would need some more pieces but the Wolves could have 2 top 25 players.
  9. kab21
    If he is anything similar to Swarzak then he doesn't have much of a future as a RP or SP.
  10. kab21
    I'm not sure what to think of it. How many 6th or 8th rd'ers really contribute? Of course some do but not many. But my point was that signing Rodon wasn't as simple as just using the +5% allowable overage. Money came from elsewhere. The area where it becomes a bigger issue is that the Twins wouldn't be able to go overslot in rds 2-4 for a guy like Gonsalves that dropped.
  11. kab21
    He has certainly said that it's temporary but I have a feeling that this isn't temporary.
  12. kab21
    I have a sneaky suspicion that we have seen the last of him as a starter. Either he continues to pitch well in the bullpen and gets called up. Or he starts to struggle in the bullpen and we have a real problem on our hands. that problem is that he isn't good anywhere. I wish he was a starter but there was always talk that this might happen.
  13. kab21
    My concern with TJ is with the high number of repeat TJ surgeries. This is a new trend in the last couple of years. I think the upside is high enough with the other picks that it isn't necessary to pick Aiken.
  14. kab21
    They used other ways to come up with more money to sign Rodon. They basically threw away their 6th and 8th rd picks to come up with an extra 400K that went to Rodon. Perhaps that is a good strategy but that's what I was talking about by having to go underslot later in the draft.
  15. kab21
    Rodon got 700K more than slot though. The White Sox had to pick at least one underslot player in the rest of the draft.
  16. kab21
    I think Cameron is signable for the Twins but it will definitely mean that they can't go overslot in rds 2-4 and likely mean that they need to consider underslot picks at one or more picks in rds 2-10. That's a stiff price to pay. I like the interesting possibility of the Astros banking enough money to draft Cameron later. Intriguing but I think he will get picked. It is hard for a prospect to sit out a year and re-enter in what is likely a stronger class.
  17. kab21
    I was watching a Marlins game and thought I should check to see if Bour was a FA but forgot. A couple of days later you picked him up. Oops. Go pick up some prospects. How can you have 5 open spots?
  18. kab21
    Cameron is going to sign for sure. But it will probably be for 400-500K overslot. Is it worth it to lose the overslot potential in rds 2-4 or possibly have to go cheap with one of those picks?
  19. kab21
    Good teams have this so called problem of too many pitchers. I really don't understand why you would just outright waive Nolasco and pay the contract. I'm a Nolasco cynic but he has pitched well after the first awful start.
  20. kab21
    The most irritating thing is that his story has changed every time. Now he was simply talking about changing the rules for next year. Somehow at least half of my comments have included how I support a rule change for next year. the good news for me is that teams decide to tank and rebuild keep me competitive. I just can't understand how a 17-15 team that is 3 games out of a playoff spot would even consider tanking much less be a seller at this point. Every year playoff teams rebuild. I don't get it. I noticed that you were in the mix. Your only problem is that you don't have any elite players but are good across the board. I see 3 tiers of playoff teams. Tier one is DEM and TR (+10-15% more points on the season than tier 2). DEM looks unstoppable with his rotation and lineup. Tier 2 includes Melk, Name and myself (+10-15% on tier 3). We are good but we just don't have the rotation strength to match up. Tier 3 includes 5 (with you).
  21. kab21
    Tim Stauffer - he had a .557 OPS one year.
  22. kab21
    What HS'ers are going through the minors faster than 2 yrs? Do you have any idea how ridiculously fast that is? The Twins are doing very well with a majority of their youngest talent like Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Gonsalves, Rosario, Thorpe and a couple of others. The only thing that has slowed them down is injuries or in Rosario's case ineffectiveness/off the field stuff. In addition to that they are getting them to CR earlier.
  23. kab21
    You completely missed the point. fangraphs has used WAR to show that RP'ers aren't that valuable. glen Perkins for example is a one WAR player. Chapman at 3 WAR is insanely valuable. And I don't think fangraphs ever added in a leverage factor. I know they talked about it and wrote a couple of articles but I don't think they added to the WAR calculation. Chapman mostly pitches in high leverage situations whereas a player like Span compiles his WAR by playing at all times regardless of the situation. Thus WAR for RP'ers underrate them a little. In addition to that creating a dominant group of 7th/8th/9th inning RP'ers is a huge advantage for contending teams. Additionally 2015 Meyer is not considered a top 100 prospect especially in trades. His value has cratered since he has shoulder injury concerns, he is a complete mess this year and he's 25.5 yrs old. Comparing vs his high upside self is meaningless. Arcia's value is going to be all over the map. He destroyed the minors and has shown little ability to adjust to the MLB level other than connecting on a few pitches and hitting them really far. You would have to find the team that really believed in him to take him as a centerpiece in a major trade. The most important thing that people need to think about when suggesting names is would you be interested in those prospects. Who in their right mind would be interested in Meyer right now? He's a buy low candidate that you pick up for a solid 7th/8th inning guy. Same goes for Arcia. There's a reason these names were brought up in the first place.
  24. kab21
    That's the Wiggins part but the Young/Bennett part brings the trade down a little. Perhaps that is a little bit like complaining that Boof Bonser reduced how great the AJ trade was.
  25. kab21
    That's exactly why I mentioned it. Punto was a great utility guy and a fine short term option at 2B/SS but he became one of the most hated players on the Twins because he was given a starting job. Escobar is headed in the same direction. He's valuable but starting him at DH/LF is going to win him no fans.
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