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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    Really? May - K rate BB rate ERA - 10.8% 2.9% 4.64 ERA June - 13.9% 2.4% 3.76 ERA July - 10.6% 1.9% 2.49 ERA I think you are dealing with sample size issues (4 games). If he is K'ing 12-13% of hitters he is most likely a high 3's ERA and possibly even a low 4's ERA guy. He needs to return to the 18-20% rate (last year 21%) to be a #2.
  2. kab21
    Let's not overrate team control of prospects. Let's throw in Duffey, Gonsalves and Pinto. Now there is 34 years of team control. How can they say no? The Twins can afford that trade and part of the reason that both Berrios and Gibson are included is the Nolasco salary relief. There is definitely not a plus whatever in Nolasco. His value is decidedly negative right now. Take out Nolasco and you might be able to reduce the package. Whether or not that trade is a good idea is another question but Berrios plus Gibson will be lucky to produce the same value (let's use WAR) while occupying two rotation slots. And if there is one weakness on the Twins it is frontline pitching. Maybe Berrios develops into that but there is no guarantee. Adding Hamels turns the Twins into legit contenders. Hamels, Ervin, Hughes and May actually looks respectable although not incredible. But it is a start.
  3. kab21
    Cueto is going to the open market. He might (slim chance) resign with the Royals but he made it this close to FA so it is very unlikely that he would resign at this point. There must be an example of a near elite rental like Cueto resigning (before entering FA) with his new team but that must be really rare. Derek Norris might or might not be poor at controlling the running game but he also has a poor defensive reputation. One difference this year in his stats are that last year he was used in a platoon. 39% of his AB's were against LHP. this year that number is 22%. He hasn't hit them very well (small sample) but he plays in a division against Kershaw and Bumgarner so that might be one reason. I would grudgingly trade for Norris. My guess is that the Padres were going to move him to 1B in a year to make way for Hedges and because Alonso was not that good.
  4. kab21
    I also don't like this version of Hughes as much going forward. It is great that he isn't walking anyone but it is tough to be a fly ball pitcher that doesn't strike out many batters. he is no longer potentially an ace lite but rather a solid 3/4. Nothing wrong with that but the Twins really needed him to be a #2.
  5. kab21
    Unlike Tulowitzki Hamels is a starter so there should be no reservations about including Gibson or Berrios in the trade. Or both. Whether or not a Berrios led package would be enough is another question.
  6. kab21
    I forgot about Lowrie. Masterson was also in the rumors.
  7. kab21
    I think the basketball podcasts are top notch. I can't listen to Buster or any of the other baseball podcasts though. They are so boring.
  8. kab21
    Doubling his salary is a meaningless way to look at it. His salary was artificially low due to it being during arb years. It is really difficult to predict what will happen with Wieters though. He was a 3-4+ WAR player until his injury and he would easily be signing a contract for 15-20M/yr w/o the injury. It is possible that Boras and Wieters bet on themselves and take a 1 yr contract and look for a 4+ yr 20M/yr contract the following offseason. Or it's possible that Boras sells a team on him returning to that form and gets him 15-20M/yr this offseason. I can't wait for the TD debates on whether or not to pursue a 29 yr old catcher that has struggled for 2 years with a TJ injury. This is going to be the best offseason ever.
  9. kab21
    I hope we are able to get more of the rumored prospects from the Johan trade. We already landed Hughes. We missed out on signing Lester this offseason and Ellsbury is locked up but maybe Austin Jackson is available. Fernando Martinez must be out of baseball by now. What about all of the Dodgers that were rumored?
  10. kab21
    I think people are making too much out of the difference between AA and AAA. There isn't much reason to promote him right now. Let him play out the final month in AA. I like the idea of promoting him to the Twins for the 3 days though.
  11. kab21
    I have started listening to a lot of ESPN podcasts/radio and Colin Cowherd is absolutely painful to listen to. Many times he doesn't even understand how things like salary caps, FA and other confusing but important things work when analyzing moves or potential moves.
  12. kab21
    Something like this might actually work. My first reaction was 'Here is another doozy' but Wieters is a FA after the season and the O's are 3 games below .500. Wieters has also struggled so we wouldn't have to give up the world either. It looks like he hasn't come close to recovering yet. Usually he is a better hitter as a RHB but this year he can't do anything right handed. But it takes some AB's away from suzuki and more importantly it takes them away from Suzuki's backup. I'm not sure if anyone has noticed but Arcia has been ice cold since the AS break. 7 games - 5/30 with 12 K's and 1BB I'm not sure how his trade value is perceived around the league.
  13. kab21
    You aren't buying out arb years for 6M and you aren't buying out FA years (especially that many) for 10M. Latos and Wieters got 5M/yr in their first arb years (and then price in inflation). In addition to that there is nearly no precedent of someone signing a 12 yr deal in his first season. Agents might be willing to listen to buying out 1-2 FA years though. But they won't be selling those years at ordinary player prices (10M/yr (in today's prices) doesn't buy you Nolasco, Ervin or a bunch of other average at best players). 2016 - 1M 2017 - 2M 2018 - 5M (up front money in pre-arb years) 2019 - 8M 2020 - 10M 2021 - 15M (last arb year) 2022 - 23M (1st FA year) 2023 - 25M option (6M buyout) 70M guaranteed with team control of an additional 2 years. And even this is probably low if they are convinced Sano is a star. Lincecum (a star) got paid 20M/yr in his last 2 arb years (10+ years earlier than this timeline).
  14. kab21
    Part of a prospects development is building up the amount of innings instead of making a large jump in one year. Berrios is at 114 IP right now. If you promote him now then he will probably top out at 130IP after 140 last year. That might lead to him getting shut down next year, tiring down the stretch or possibly even getting injured (if you subscribe to the Verducci Effect). But anyways his future is as a starter and potentially a very important one. I am not interested in sidetracking him from that and as was said above he is potentially an option to be called up as a starter if anything happens. once you get to September it is a benefit for him to get big league experience even if it is as a RP'er.
  15. kab21
    I have absolutely no problems moving Duffey to the pen and hoping his stuff plays up there. The only dilemma is who to send down/get rid of (discussed above) and if he actually leapfrogs other RP's in AAA. Berrios stays a starter until the MiLB season is finished. He needs to be ready to go a full season (6 months) as a starter next year. In September (Aug 31st to be postseason eligible) I hope he is promoted and could potentially be the Twins version of Carlos Martinez.
  16. kab21
    This really isn't true. fangraphs shows that his velocity went from 94.1 the year he was suspended to 93 for the two years following his suspension. In addition to that he was very good the year following the suspension. One thing about steroids is that the positive effect doesn't leave your body immediately. You still see the increased benefits from being able to train harder and more often for quite awhile afterwards. Of course Rincon's situation is nothing like the situation described from Santana and the stats don't really back up anything. Santana's average fastball has been between 91.7 and 92.3 for the last 4 seasons. This year it is at 91.9. It is too bad that the Twins couldn't have signed Santana last year. I think many liked him more than Nolasco but the biggest argument against was the draft pick compensation.
  17. kab21
    There is nothing that says Duffey is better than Hendriks was. Duffey's stuff is average at best just like Hendriks and he has rather unexciting K rates. Duffey has been successful so far but he doesn't really interest me as an MLB starter. Hendriks is another example of a mediocre starting pitching prospect that has become very successful in the bullpen though. His FB jumped 3mph to 94.3 and he stopped throwing his changeup. Completely different pitcher this year although there is one warning sign. His swstr% is still a little low.
  18. kab21
    The Rockies are not trading prospects even if they are in theory blocked and the Twins should not be trading their best assets for a prospect that won't help this season.
  19. kab21
    The revenues that aren't included would be those of satellite businesses of the team owners that also benefit from the MLB team. For example the TV contract is included but the TV contract could be underpaid by the cable network that the team also owns. The cable network earnings aren't subject to sharing. This is nothing more than pork barrel politics where the small market teams were given a benefit so that they would go along with a system that ultimately does benefit large market teams.
  20. kab21
    In the big picture the rank of a farm system really doesn't matter but it is fun to talk about. If you check out those rankings you will notice two other teams missing. The Astros and Cubs. Just like the Twins they have graduated several high profile guys (more than the Twins) to the majors recently. Optimistically the Twins move back up the rankings as the interesting but not top prospects (yet) progress from rk/A ball up to the higher minors. That (after Berrios) is where the Twins strength is right now. It is a deep system with a lot of guys that could move up a lot in the rankings in the next year or two.
  21. kab21
    This is one of the reasons that I love the minors. There is so much individuality and sense of community with the organizations. The Lookouts ranked #6 in the voting for favorite MiLB hats. Kernals #41, Red Wings #55, Miracle #61. ETown didn't rank and it is a rather bland hat although I think the Miracle are overrated. Surprisingly the Rock Cats also didn't rank which surprises me since I think that is a cool hat/mascot. Or at least better than many in the top 101. I like the look of the Red Wings hat better than a few years ago when I randomly found one in a discount store (30-40 caps) in Taiwan. I instead chose the Dayton Dragons and Durham Bulls caps. http://www.milb.com/milb/fans/caps/y2015/ FYI - about the voting - instead of being done as a bracket where fanbases just go and vote for their favorite team this was done much better although it frustrated fans that just wanted to vote for their team. You were only given the random choice between two caps and there were well over 100 choices (probably all of AAA/AA/A/short season). I voted a long time before I started seeing repeats.
  22. kab21
    I think it is an unnecessarily complicated way to mostly do nothing. But it is only 12 picks in the draft instead of the 20+ picks that used to be awarded for FA comp that actually benefited the large market teams so it is an improvement. The one really nice thing about it is that the picks are tradeable and that might create a system where all draft picks are tradeable in the future.
  23. kab21
    The strength of the Twins system is depth right now and that usually doesn't rank well. To stay in the top farm system rankings the Twins needed Stewart and Gordon to be meeting expectations of a top 5 pick and so far they have moderately disappointed. They are still good prospects but the Twins system is now loaded with guys that are making an argument to be in the top 100 instead of several guys that are locks for everyone's top 50. Without looking at the farm systems I expected the Twins to be in the 10-15 range this offseason so this isn't a surprise.
  24. kab21
    Boyer and Fien perfectly define the Duensing Rule. Someone could twist an argument (ERA) saying that they are successful RP'ers that are valuable to a playoff team.
  25. kab21
    The benefit of Tulo (this year and the following years) is much greater than Gibson. you might consider that undermining but they still improve. It would be better if Kohl Stewart (or someone else with a high profile) was doing awesome in A ball and could be the centerpiece but you have to give up something to get something.
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