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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    Harrison is as valuable as Nolasco. And further evidence that teams are willing to take back a bad contract for a high priced player.
  2. kab21
    Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. He has had a hot 78 PA's. He has been scorching hot and ice cold at every level in the minors. I think he is a legit MLB player now though and has finally earned a starting spot unlike previous seasons. There are all kinds of positives stat wise though. He had been almost historically bad as Levi mentions. The positives are that he is swinging more at pitches in the zone (60% vs 71%) and not swinging much more outside of the zone. Due to this he is both walking and K'ing less and hitting a lot more. I would tend to agree that he was too passive (not sure if I would call that discipline though) his first two seasons. LD% is also up so he is swinging/hitting with more authority this year also. He still hasn't been great against RHP even with the hot streak so ultimately his value will be decided on whether or not he is just a LHP'ing killer or if he can hang in there against RHP also.
  3. kab21
    Not really. The Marlins got a bad rap for signing big contracts and even making promises to players about their commitment to winning. And then they completely tore down teams (even winning teams) a year or two later in impressive firesales. The Padres only signed one big contract and even that one basically bailed Shields out of a developing bad situation late in the offseason. The rest of the players were traded for. In a way they are doing the A's way (although not as well).
  4. kab21
    The Twins farm system has 2 elite talents and 1 other top prospect that many want to declare off limits. After that there are prospects that are trending down (Meyer, Stewart, Thorpe and even Gordon until recently) or prospects that are viewed with skepticism (ABW, Gonsalves, Hu, Duffey etc...). It is kind of tough to make a high profile trade when you declare your top 3 off limits and the remainder are struggling or not convincing people that they can become a top 50 prospect. If you are going to make a big trade you need to be willing to part with top 100 (and more likely top 50) prospects. Two prospects fall outside of this grouping although there might be some skepticism regarding them. Kepler is looking really interesting but some are putting him into the untouchable list (difficult to make a trade with untouchables). Polanco just keeps producing but he doesn't get recognition nationally and is just barely cracking top 100 lists. Addressing the other concern. Why can't the Twins call up a player to fill hole (catcher or RP)? No farm system is stacked at every position. The Twins have already used the farm system to plug a hole in CF (Hicks), LF (Rosario), DH (Sano), SP/RP (May) and RP (Graham - Rule V). This is a pretty good payback from a farm system in one season.
  5. kab21
    Nobody is trading for Reyes w/o significant cash being exchanged also (or a dead contract).
  6. kab21
    I really don't understand the Hunter one. It was expected that the Royals would be good and the Twins would be bad. He should be very happy to be playoff relevant this season. How about Vincent Velasquez who got bumped from the Astros rotation with the kazmir trade?
  7. kab21
    Still missing it. Nobody has said Reyes is equal to Nolasco. Reyes is owed about 50M after this season and Nolasco is owed about 25M. That 25M has value. In addiiton to that I think the Twins still need to include an alright but not great prospect.
  8. kab21
    they want to trade Reyes and the reality of trading Reyes is needing to send some money or take back a contract to make it happen. Nolasco is the logical choice for Twins/Rockies trade for that reason. The Rockies still save about 25M and should pick up a mid-tier prospect while the Twins get Reyes for a reasonable contract (2/25 or so) to fill a big hole. In a way Reyes is similar to Luis Castillo a decade ago. The arguments against are similar to the liabilities that Castillo had but he was a dependable player on the field even if he was in decline. Tulo's contract (20+M) is really hard for most teams to fit into a midseason budget. I'm guessing that the only way they could deal with the Jays was to offset the salaries. If they say no to taking Reyes back then they might not have another trade partner.
  9. kab21
    That's why Nolasco needs to be in the deal. He reduces that 50M by half.
  10. kab21
    I would absolutely prefer Tulo but everyone made arguments against getting him because the prospects cost too much. This changes nothing regarding Reyes. I would instantly take Reyes in a deal for 2/25 (including buyout) for one of the mid tier prospects as long as they also take Nolasco (making the Reyes contract 2/25).
  11. kab21
    I think you overrate Gonsalves or overrate the craptastic options the Twins have at SS. Reyes is a very solid player that fills a big hole for the Twins not only in the field but also in the lineup at leadoff.
  12. kab21
    I don't think it's possible for the Rockies to trade Reyes w/o sending money (or taking a contract). If we can get them to take Nolasco and only give up prospects in the range of ABW, Gonsalves, Hu then I am on board. If we need to give up Polanco or better prospects then it doesn't make sense.
  13. kab21
    After this season Nolasco is owed 2/24 (+1M buyout) and Reyes is owed 2/44 (+4M buyout) so that is a substantial savings. Being on the DL doesn't really matter if there is a 23M savings. His value isn't dependent on him pitching. The problem is that Starlin Castro would cost some actual good prospects and I am not too enamored with him as a player. He has been involved in some questionable stuff off of the field and he has had 2 poor offensive seasons in the last 3.
  14. kab21
    It still only bought out 2 years of FA since TB kept him in the minors for the required two weeks to screw him. And I think every agent considers that contract to be the one to avoid at all costs because it was a ridiculous steal. Even that 7th year option 'bargain' is misleading. He will be 37+ at the time. He might be done by then but he still got some guaranteed money that season.
  15. kab21
    I really don't understand why anyone is against adding Reyes if the Twins can flip Nolasco in the deal. He has a .700 OPS at SS and would be a no doubt leadoff hitter that the lineup needs. Yes, he isn't awesome but that is why he is available at a low cost.
  16. kab21
    I'm sure they would love to not pay 22M to Reyes. I could see them dumping him for 'low' ranking prospects (like Gonsalves, Minier or Hu). It isn't like we are talking about Garver or DHicks. I think they are interested in Nolasco the same way that they were 'interested' in Reyes. He is owed less money than the player they traded and they get prospects. Perhaps I haven't gauged the Reyes trade value market correctly though but I don't think he has any value to the Rockies and they will do everything they can to move him in the next 4 days.
  17. kab21
    I would snap Reyes up instantly as a salary dump. He instantly becomes the best option at leadoff and fills a big hole (a Santana/Escobar sized one) on defense. Send 1-2 15-25th ranked prospects. Or maybe we could send Nolasco to offset the salaries 22M vs 12M and a little better prospect(s) 10-15th ranked.
  18. kab21
    Regardless of that there are almost no examples of players that have been bought out of 5 years of FA for less then elite (20M/yr) prices. Agents are willing to sign contracts that offer a big payday early in arb or pre arb but usually those contracts only buy out 1-2 years of FA. That gets them up front money and it allows them to sign a mega-contract.
  19. kab21
    And the first place I would upgrade is an ace. many teams have bad catchers or SS's. It's unfortunate that the Twins have both. Brock looks at a rotation with Hamels in it and still doesn't think it is very good. I would have to think that the rotation must look awful currently if that is the case. But as far as I can tell some are going to say no to any trade for a good player because it costs a prospect. At the end of the day I don't expect the FO to be exploring any blockbusters though.
  20. kab21
    I would trade him for a top 25 prospect like Berrios. Otherwise I try to win.
  21. kab21
    I can play this game also. The Royals made it to Game 7 of the World Series with a DH and 1B that could barely crack .700 OPS and 2B and 3B that hit .632 OPS. The Twins holes (2 positions) don't look so bad.
  22. kab21
    Yes, but you need to make the decision to concede the playoffs in the next 5 days. At that point the Twins will still be in a WC spot. It would be absolutely criminal to sell while a team is not only in contention of a playoff spot but several games up. The FO should be ripped to shreds if they consider it. They can sell on Pelfrey, Duensing and Fien though. They might get a bag of balls, a rosin bag and if they are really lucky a new fungo.
  23. kab21
    I don't understand this at all. Are you suggesting that this can happen in the next 5 days before the trade deadline?
  24. kab21
    Of course it would but his HR/FB% would have to be abnormally high in the first place for it to help. It isn't. He is a FB pitcher that doesn't strike out many batters. That means that there are a lot of FB's and he is going to give up a lot of HR's. Basically he is going to be among the league leaders in HR's every season so it really doesn't help the ERA.
  25. kab21
    Why is this relevant?
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