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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    We are talking about pick #74. It is a crapshoot at that point with a lot of players that are never successful at AA much less the majors. I'm okay taking an upside pick (electric stuff) at that point but not signing him doesn't create a hole in the pipeline.
  2. kab21
    I can't tell if Calipari is some kind of genius or not for basically restricting Towns to the post at UK. Was he really concerned about Towns working on the one thing that scouts had dogged him about or did Calipari only want that in his system. Regardless my expectations are bordering on unrealistic at this point. Anything short of doing better than Wiggins last year would be a disappointment. I must reign that in soon. I am a bit confused about what the Wolves plans are up front. They have 5 starters for 2 positions. Flip just commented after the Garnett signing that he sees him as a 20 min/game (not on back to backs) player. That's fine but there has to be an odd man out (or two) until the yearly Pekovic injury. And that isn't counting Payne and Bennett who are probably talented enough and young enough that they should get developmental minutes.
  3. kab21
    As of right now I would send Buxton to the minors when healthy. As for Arcia I want to see more sustained success before calling him up and hoping that things will be different this time.
  4. kab21
    Budinger is the better player but he was definitely outside of any possible 10 player rotation for next season so it makes sense to trade him for a less expensive possibly decent role player. I am actually a little excited about the Wolves season. They have a few pieces that could become a contender someday.
  5. kab21
    Yes, I am on board with the numbers being thrown around (6/40) but I don't think that even gets the agent to pick up the phone. That could play out like the James Shield contract with Tampa and he was an outstanding value. But overall I am lukewarm on making a big effort to sign Gibson. He has already had TJ and 2nd TJ's are becoming common. He has also been inconsistent and until the last month and a half he has been a 5.5 K/9 pitcher. Before that I would have been dead set against any kind of extension but now I am at least intrigued by what he can become. He has some statistical comparisons to Carlos Carrasco who went from a 6 K/9 guy to a 9 K/9 so anything is possible.
  6. kab21
    This isn't a dilemna. The only dilemna is how long will it be until the team has a good 1-4 in the lineup. Where they bat is a small issue.
  7. kab21
    I don't know what you have seen from the Twins that suggest this kind of lineup shuffling will happen with Arcia especially with Hunter getting that many days off. They certainly didn't do it with Vargas and that was at a time when they didn't even have a DH. It is easy to type up a plan that says this guy will get a day off and then this guy will get a day off and then this guy will get a day off and then this guy will get a day off and then assurances that this guy will get PH appearances if he doesn't start but that it is another to actually carry it out.
  8. kab21
    Your inconsistent playing time schedule (that won't happen) is one reason that prospects struggle. You are basically setting him up to fail a 3rd time. That is why I disagree with calling him up now. If he gets called up it should be as an every day player.
  9. kab21
    So it looks like the Twins aren't going after other lesser prospects in this signing period and are determined to stay under the limit. I don't have problems with that and waiting to go over makes sense since 8-10 teams will be out next year and the Twins bonus pool amount will be greatly reduced by their better record. You could make an argument for going over recently but it is hard to take that stance when the Twins have had one of the largest bonus pools and still have been able to load up. Next year (and hopefully the following years) that won't be the case.
  10. kab21
    Despite this Arcia has not been able to sustain any success at the MLB level. I don't see how this last 10 games is anything different. We have time and time again that young players that aren't starting don't get consistent playing time. Why would Arcia be different especially when you say he should be out against all LH's? You know very well that the reality is that Nunez is still going to get occasional AB's and not all of the bench AB's are going to Arcia. This isn't my suggestion but that is the reality of the Twins managing. If Arcia is called up then Rosario should be sent down and Arcia should be playing with a regular spot and not occasionally filling in.
  11. kab21
    Contending for the WC is an awesome goal for a rebuilding team that has had 4 straight top 5 picks. That means that they won 15-20 more games than the previous seasons and don't have very much further to go. But they shouldn't be trading top level prospects to contend for the WC spot. They need to build the team into a perennial playoff contender. But other than Plouffe you named guys that have near zero trade value. We don't need more prospects that probably don't rank in the Twins top 30. not much of a reason to be sellers. And trading Plouffe would be a mistake. He is good and not that young. Now if someone made an offer of Plouffe for a Jose Berrios level prospect (into the midseason top 10 overall) then I am interested.
  12. kab21
    It's awesome how a hot 2 weeks magically fixed the complete mess that he was for almost 3 months (minus injury time). I wouldn't be surprised if he returned to a complete mess if was called up and got inconsistent playing time again. Let him play for another month and then call him up. Perhaps he will take this as a message that he can't be Pedro Cerrano and try to kill every ball when he come back up. It's easy for everyone to say Hunter needs a day off, Rosario needs a day off, Plouffe needs a day off, Mauer needs a day off and magically Arcia has playing time. That is very, very unlikely to happen. And frustratingly it will be Nunez that gets the spot starts if it does.
  13. kab21
    Arcia has been playing well for 10 games and this means that he needs to be called up to sit on the bench for at least 1/2 of the games? I will pass for now.
  14. kab21
    Actually the seller's market is the opposite of what you say. In the offseason teams will turn to FA to fill holes instead of overpay in a trade. They will also turn to an unproven prospect and there is hope. At midseason there will be desperation (and injuries) and no FA's to turn to and that unproven prospect might have fallen on his face. In addition to that the new Wild Card rules have added so many teams to the buyer's side of the equation that there are very few seller's. But I don't trade Plouffe right now. It is not as simple as trading an MLB veteran 3B for a MLB ready or veteran C. It is REALLY hard to match up teams with those kinds of constraints. The Twins also lack bats right now. I am not subtracting Plouffe from that lineup.
  15. kab21
    Buxton and Sano won't even be in arbitration until Mauer's contract is over. That is a non-issue. tulo's contract ends during their first arb year. by then Nolasco has been gone for 2 years and Ervin Santana is also gone. The reason to not add Tulo to the payroll is because the team needs to add a FA. I don't see anyone out there that they pursue. I still don't see them getting into a bidding war for a 150-250M ace.
  16. kab21
    It might be time to put Nolasco in the non-performing contract category but I agree with the rest.
  17. kab21
    I would do that instantly. Money is only good if it can be spent somewhere useful later. FA rarely presents really good options for spending money and arguably the Twins will have most of the roster positions tied up any with promising young players on low contracts. Tulo (if healthy) is a game changer in the Twins lineup. Yes, he has some health concerns but that is the only reason it would even remotely be possible to pick him up for 3 fringy top 100 prospects.
  18. kab21
    I would like to get Hamels and Lucroy but definitely not at the price of Sano or Buxton. this is where the struggles of Stewart, Meyer and Gordon and the injury to Thorpe (probably others) have hurt the team. They basically have Sano and Buxton that everyone is going to ask for, Berrios in the next tier (getting top 10 overall rankings at midseason), Polanco and guys that are probably falling out of the top 100. I don't think the Twins have enough to get Hamels w/o including Sano or Buxton. I think the Twins would need to include everyone interesting (not named Sano or Buxton) to get Lucroy. Are those the prices that you are willing to pay? I think it would be awesome to get Hamels, Lucroy and Tulo but I am not mortgaging the farm system to do it. Especially with a team that according to metrics might not even make the playoffs with the addition of a top player. The problem is that there aren't many players in the in between category available (very few sellers).
  19. kab21
    What position are you buying at? How much of the future are you willing to part with? this team could add Hamels at a cost of Sano and it's still among the worst of the playoff teams. I don't think you significantly alter the timeline because the team has overachieved and is a few games over .500. Minor moves and plugging holes should be looked at but for the most part the roster is set and the youngsters should be gaining experience.
  20. kab21
    I like #3 but I don't think they have needs to be filled (let the youngsters play) or valuable pieces to trade. They could sell an extra starter like Pelfrey or Milone but Milone was traded last year for Sam Fuld and his up and down season since then hasn't increased his trade value. Pelfrey's trade value is lower. The rest of the starters should stay put. They should be looking for a solid 7th/8th inning RP'er and use somebody in the 20-30th prospect range to do it. The could make a Sal Butera-esque trade also but this is such a small transaction that it doesn't really count.
  21. kab21
    This matches my observations as well. If you spend big like Greinke, tanaka or Scherzer then you can do pretty well if they stay healthy. The reason is that there is a margin of error where they can decline a little (become a #3) and you still have a useable pitcher in your rotation. The riskiest group is the 40-80M group. They are getting paid substantial money but they have mostly performed as #3's in their careers. A small decline or injury and they become 4's or 5's (or worse). The bargain group of signings like Pelfrey and Correia don't have the same upside but they do less damage to the payroll long term. I am not willing to consider Hughes as a pitcher in decline. he has struggled but I think he is going to be quite good for the duration of his contract. My concern would be Gibson not improving his K rate and being a 4+ ERA pitcher.
  22. kab21
    But what does accomplish that a hard(er) spending cap and the disaparity in available pool money doesn't? Talk about punishing good teams with 50-75 players being off the board before they pick. Why not increase the bonus pool size between the non playoff teams and the playoff teams?
  23. kab21
    But it is no different than the int'l bonus pools (assuming 5 teams don't blow through their cap). There is a limited amount of money in both the domestic draft and int'l FA. Isn't the current MLB draft a combo of spending pools and draft picks?
  24. kab21
    Altuve is a leadoff hitter that hits .300 (with a normal BAPIP), has hit 7 HR's, stolen 24 bases and plays good defense. This isn't a slight to Dozier but Altuve is a pretty awesome player. I would take Dozier personally but I'm not sure Dozier is significantly better. Hopefully Dozier still makes it though.
  25. kab21
    Actually the only problem with the current system is that it greatly benefits teams to completely blow through the cap because the penalties aren't stiff enough. If they make the penalties stiff enough then this is better than the draft. One nice thing that I like is that teams can trade pool money to others (like trading a draft pick). They are also free to choose to blow it all on one guy or spread it out if they have several sleepers targeted. It is kind of dumb that MLB teams can't draft a player that they really like because they pick #5 and #50 but the player gets picked in the 30's.
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