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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    Right now buxton is not a sell high.
  2. kab21
    I have never said that they should hide their target. It is reality that the trade market for 3B like Plouffe is limited. It isn't because Plouffe isn't good or valuable but rather that a lot of teams have 3B or aren't interested in a veteran. For example (a quick scan so I might be wrong on 1 or 2 - it doesn't change the point) AL East - every team is set at 3B AL Central - Chi and CLE need a 3B but will they trade for a veteran? AL West - Angels (Freese is a FA) and Astros possibly NL East - WAS (probably not with Rendon) and MIA/ATL (rebuilding) NL Central - MIL (rebuilding) NL West- Padres (possibly) and ARI (possibly) This shows there are maybe 5 teams that would want to trade for Plouffe. There just aren't that many teams in the market for Plouffe. Those teams are unlikely to have an extra SS or C available (aside from SD with Norris).
  3. kab21
    Do you have any idea how hard it is match a trade like that? If you want a C/SS then it is going to take 2 trades possibly not involving the same prospects that were acquired.
  4. kab21
    Mauer isn't going to be benched or enjoy early retirement. He will definitely be starting at 1B/DH next year.
  5. kab21
    If you do trade Plouffe then under absolutely no circumstance do you target a C or SS. The number of teams that want to trade for a late 20's solid to very good 3B with two years of team arb remaining is already small. If you restrict the trade to MLB or MLB ready C or SS (rare that teams have surpluses) then you are completely forcing a trade and will almost certainly come out on the losing side. If you trade Plouffe then you pick the 5 contending teams that need a 3B and go for the best prospect package that you can get. And then you turn around and those prospects or the prospects that you have for the C or SS that you want (if one exists). I am not real keen on trading Plouffe but perhaps if someone is offering a top 50 and a top 100 prospect then I could be on board. I would have to feel real certain that the org had a real big bat for DH (Vargas?) or would sign someone. No reason to make room for a question mark.
  6. kab21
    You have misread. I didn't say that Berrios was going to be a #2. He has the potential to be a #2 and that is what they need to be a true contender. There is almost no way for the Twins to contend unless they get two pitchers that profile as low end aces. Berrios has that potential. Possibly May but not much else that will be up in the next couple of years. Of course there is risk with any pitching prospect but that is true of any prospect. I remember reading somewhere that the top pitching prospects that have had success at AA/AAA have about the same chance of success as similarly ranked hitting prospects. The prospects to watch out for are the Kohl Stewart types. Great upside but they haven't had true MiLB success yet and become busts at fairly high rates. Hu is nothing like Berrios. TR didn't violate any such rule by trading Hu away. It isn't a great value trade and Hu might become a useful MLB but Berrios has legit FOR upside.
  7. kab21
    No. The long term success of the team depends on finding pitchers that can at least be #2's. They can survive with a mediocre catcher.
  8. kab21
    The disaster actually happened at the AAA all star break in the middle of the month. I can't explain it but he was on a tear before the break (ridiculous numbers) and then he couldn't hit anything. It has been 1.5 months now. Perhaps he tweaked something and isn't seriously injured but it affects his hitting. Perhaps he was crushed by not getting called up and is sulking. Perhaps? It makes no sense but being out of options next year is a big issue.
  9. kab21
    I think it would be foolish to get rid of Milone with the amount of depth needed at SP nowadays. Especially with a rotation as shaky as the Twins. And no he isn't bringing back a very interesting prospect.
  10. kab21
    The problem at both C and SS is that it is very difficult to find someone that is average defensively and offensively without paying a fortune in cash or prospects to acquire. I think this makes it very likely that Escobar will start the season at SS next year. This doesn't mean that I am a big fan of Escobar but rather that I am a realist at the quality of player available to replace him and the likely exorbitant cost to obtain that player.
  11. kab21
    This and batting <.100 in August with 2 BB's. Arcia should get every chance to make the team next year but pitchers (AAA and MLB) have adjusted to him and he is doing awful. This is a big disappointment but that is the way the prospect world works and a big lesson to anyone that suggests that X prospect can replace Y MLB'er.
  12. kab21
    His isoP is .240 in the regression. That is really, really good and would place him 11th in the MLB for combined isoP from 2000-2015. Perhaps it should be .250 but people are throwing out numbers (.380 BAPIP) that place Sano far above the current elite players. He is going to be good but people seem to be putting him in the elite category a little prematurely.
  13. kab21
    I just don't understand how Escobar does it. He isn't this good but he is the best (or only) option that the Twins have so keep running him out there. And probably next year also since you don't find good SS's easily. I still think it is funny that people ever criticized the Liriano trade. Liriano didn't have any value after two straight 5 ERA seasons. We should have been happy to get a utility player in that trade.
  14. kab21
    The only thing that this tells me is that he isn't a lock to be opening day starter like many are penciling in (or flat out demanding). He still has a month to show something but I am guessing that he opens in AAA next year.
  15. kab21
    Loogy's have value but they aren't tremendously valuable.
  16. kab21
    Actually it isn't irrelevant at all. You can expect some power hitters (esp Sano) to have a higher than average BAPIP but BAPIP is still relevant. His BAPIP can be high but maintaining a .380 BAPIP is completely unreasonable. The highest BAPIP for any player from 2000-2015 (combined) is .357. Sano will be fine however since part of the reason that he has a high K rate is due to him waiting for his pitch. As he improves he should K less so the decline in BAPIP won't affect his avg as much. If I had to predict next season's BA I would be picking .250-.260 with potential to improve during his first few seasons. I can live with that if he keeps walking like he does and hits 35 HR's.
  17. kab21
    I am not one to dismiss May's value in the bullpen but I prefer him as a starter next season. It means that one or both of Duffey and Berrios start the season in the minors but I can live with that. Gibson Santana Hughes May Milone/Berrios/Duffey/Nolasco(<1%) That kind of rotation has pretty good depth and is solid although it definitely lacks the top end talent unless Berrios or May outperform expectations or Hughes reverts back to his 2014 self (a good #2). Milone doesn't figure to be a great RP'er since I don't think his stuff plays like other converted starters but my preference would be stick him in the pen as a long man/swing starter and let one of the rookies in the #5 spot. I am not as optimistic that the bullpen will fix itself internally and fixing it externally is also a bad option. There really isn't a good answer there but I am hesitant to lose such a potentially valuable starter with 5 more years of team control.
  18. kab21
    Only one person really mentioned this but Nolasco's good FIP this season is misleading. His xFIP was 4.01 because he was really lucky with HR's. And he has continually underperformed his xFIP by 0.7 ERA throughout his career. This was the one glaring issue in signing him but the hope was that perhaps his results were finally matching his stuff (peripherals). The injuries certainly haven't helped him though and he will get every chance to make the team in the spring but he is an unlikely candidate to make the rotation partly due to the depth the Twins have now.
  19. kab21
    The Twins need to approach the Ricky Nolasco situation (or anyone else) as if it is a sunk cost regardless if it fits his dictionary definition. The Twins (or anyone on this board) should never say that he is too expensive to use as a RP'er because his contract pays him like a MOR starter. They are approaching the point where they have very little chance of recovering that value in any way. The Nolasco evaluation should essentially be based on 'he costs $0' for this particular role or we could call up X from the minors and pay them 500K and not continue to invest additional resources (roster spots, rotation spots, staff resources) in him. The fixed cost is basically sunk. It could be said that any long term contract is a sunk cost but most players have some chance of being productive enough going forward to return some value even if it isn't their full value.
  20. kab21
    I remember Gene Larkin (and also Randy Bush) fitting your profile but the problem is that they don't have that guy and their PH options are Nunez, Herrmann and Robinson. I will take Vargas over option A, option B and option C from either side of the plate everyday of the week.
  21. kab21
    My view of a pinch hitter is that he should be able to hit. Vargas is probably my first choice (or Kepler) as a bench bat. Ozzie Arcia what has happened to you? 6 for 70 in August. 3 HR's. 20K's 2BB's I just hope you can make it to spring training with the team and redeem yourself.
  22. kab21
    Yeah, I forgot that. Shackleton's Stowaway by Victoria McKernan. Apparently the stowaway (Perce Blackborow) never talked about the experience with his family. There was no journal or anything else to base his thoughts on. It feels more like the fantasy genre where the teenagers end up on an impossible quest but it just happens to be based on a real Antarctic expedition. I really dig current and historical travel though. I loved Roland Huntsford's 'Last Place on Earth' where he gave detailed descriptions of Amundson and Scott's competing expeditions to the South Pole and why one team succeeded and the other failed.
  23. kab21
    Perhaps my latest book would interest you. It is a historical novel based on Shackleton's failed Antarctic expedition. Note that it is a novel and not the biography. The author used the facts of the expedition and the people but then told the story from the POV of the lowest man on the ship (the stowaway). The dialogues and thoughts are completely made up and are just guesses as to what they might have been thinking. I liked it a lot as a departure from a factually based book and it easily mixed in the historical aspect of it. Or maybe I am just a geography and history nerd.
  24. kab21
    Berrios really won't be an option by then. Innings limits aren't a concern now but if he finishes out the year in the rotation then he will be pushing 200 IP by then. My preference would be that he is the Carlos Martinez/David Price option out of the bullpen at that time.
  25. kab21
    2nd half swoon? career 1st half - .746 2nd half - .715 2013 1st half - .696 2nd half - .757 2014 1st half - .777 2nd half - .739 2015 1st half - .841 2nd half - .667 Are you basing this entirely on one season? 1.5 months of stats? Dozier (and 2B) is almost dead last on my list of concerns that I have about the Twins. Trade him away and 2b would rank as high as SS and C. And SS would rank even higher than it currently does since we would likely be putting a mediocre defender there.
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