kab21

I am pretty sure that China would never want peaceful reunification in a million years and that is why they continue to prop up this insane gov't (preventing collapse). It took the USSR collapsing to reunify Germany but China isn't going anywhere. This is a stalemate where the insane man in the middle that can't be touched (and is coddled by China) is allowed to develop and test nuclear weapons.

The problem is that your definition of mediocre in this thread alone has ranged from Santiago to Nolasco and would presumably include Hughes and Gibson also. The range (60-70% of MLB pitchers) is basically anybody that isn't above average (your previous definition). I would consider Santiago average instead of mediocre. And average (a shot at a 4.00 ERA) sounds awesome right now.

Debate continually rages on about many topics so I have tried to pick some of the more interesting and controversial ones for everyone to pick a position on. Try not to turn this into another endless debate thread about these same topics. Just OVER/UNDER Make your picks after the choice in CAPS - delete out my notes in parenthesis For example Twins wins - 72.5 - OVER HR hit - 199.5 - UNDER Twins team Twins wins - 72.5 HR hit - 199.5 (last year 200) OPS - .738 (last year .738) ERA - 4.50 (last year 5.08) # of different SP'ers - 10.5 (9-12 last 4 seasons) # of different pitchers - 25.5 (22-23 2013-2015 and 28 last year) Offensive Players Dozier HR's - 26.5 Sano HR's - 33.5 Mauer HR's - 4.5 Kepler HR's - 20.5 Polanco OPS - .765 Grossman OPS - .800 Grossman OPS - .750 Buxton OPS - .625 Rosario OPS - .725 Buxton GP - 99.5 Danny Santana GP - 39.5 JR Murphy GP - 9.5 Sano GS at 3B - 110 Grossman innings in the OF - 300 (637 last year) Sano K's - 219.5 Offensive Pick'ems Palka/Vargas/Park - most HR's Gimenez vs Garver - most GP at catcher Grossman - more BB's or singles (10 1B vs 14 BB this year - 189 1B vs 152 BB career) Dozier vs Polanco - higher OPS Most GS at DH - write in your pick Pitchers Santiago - 4.10 ERA Santana - 3.60 ERA Berrios - 4.25 ERA Kintzler saves - 19.5 Gibson GS - 8.5 Hughes GS - 12.5 Duffey GS - 8.5 Pitcher Pick'ems Hughes vs Gibson - most IP Relief Pitcher - most K's Mejia vs Berrios - most IP Miscellaneous predictions Pitchers taken in the top 5 rounds - 3.5 Deadline Deals - 1.5 DaveW's Book It Threads - 1.5 DaveW's Bans/Suspensions - 1.5 kab21's Bans/Suspensions - 0.5

So you have named a bunch of guys not the in the org, a rookie that might benefit from a month in the minors and a guy that might not have a future in the rotation but profiles as a pretty good RP? So basically there is Mejia and then nobody is what you are saying.

So mediocre is what you will describe anyone that isn't above average? That is a pretty huge range and awfully imprecise imo.

Gibson is certainly going to get more starts than we can comprehend but plan B doesn't really exist. Berrios is expected up in place of Mejia and to replace Gibson requires calling Mejia back up right away. If it isn't Mejia then it would be the likes of Tepesch that replaces Gibson and I am not sure that makes the team better.

If China would just stop propping up this maniacal regime so the country/gov't would collapse and a more reasonable gov't take control. Of course, China doesn't want SK or the US gaining any ground in Asia so they will basically continue to sponsor this madman. However I wish Trump would stop hitting the hornet's nest with a stick. His lack of tact with other countries has been met with carefully measured responses that downplay just how stupid his positions are but NK responds to his stupidity with even greater stupidity and nobody wants to lose face.

Nolasco was a terrible starter. I have said it before but we don't have the same definition of mediocre. Santiago (aside from last season) has been better than mediocre. Nolasco has had two seasons better than mediocre in his entire career. Nolasco overall was awful, not mediocre.

Bravo on picking arbitrary sample sizes to make an argument. Nobody should be mistaking Santiago with greatness but he has a history of being a reliable starter. I will take my chances with him far before I bring in the next version of Albers, Pino or Jason Miller. You could pick any of the AAAA starters that have gotten chances every season with the Twins from the last decade.

Except that before there were always 5+ teams each signing period that were going to blow through the soft cap by 5-10M. Now 10 teams are eliminated and those 5 teams have to pay by the rules also. An example of this is that the Twins have had a top 5ish bonus pool for the entire CBA and they barely scored a top 10 signing during that period. But I just looked at the new bonus pool setup and record is no longer a factor in determining pool size. Basically everybody gets the same amount compared with the soft cap system before (or the MLB draft). I am fine with that setup but it would have been great to be the Twins under the pool system and the new hard cap.

Nobody is judging Santiago by 3 good games in April. They are judging him by 739 innings of 3.79 ERA pitching. Looking at peripherals is great but it has been well established that there are some guys that can outperform/underperform various all in one stats just like batters can outperform/underperform BAPIP. At some point the sample size becomes large enough to suggest that he can outperform his FIP/xFIP by a fair margin.

Slightly unrelated but 10 teams are capped at 300k for next year's Int'l FA and the Twins have largest bonus pool. Obviously the Twins are staying away from this Cuban now but shouldn't they be in a good position to sign several of the top prospects after July 2nd?

3.5 seasons of <4.00 ERA and you judge him by one season? Really? Nobody that has truly earned a place in the majors has been blocked from getting numerous chances during the MLB season. Sometimes there are stupid considerations like service time or other issues but the Twins staff has always had plenty of in season openings and a general lack of prospects to take advantage of those openings. Having a veteran like Santiago that get through a game is not a bad thing. Other veterans (like the final go around of Blackburn or Nolasco) never had much hope and I also complained about them in the rotation.

Perhaps we aren't on the same page with the word mediocre but you won't get a veteran with Santiago's ability to be 6th-8th available starters stashed in AAA. They either need to be in the rotation or they aren't on the team. Every year there are many complaints that prospects will be blocked but every year any starting pitching prospect that is worth anything gets numerous chances in the majors. It might not happen on the day that everyone wants but it does happen.

Boshers was nothing more than a warm body and he won't be available for a few days so he is gone. It is interesting to see them make a 40 man move but somehow with a 13 man staff they still don't have anyone left in the bullpen.

I didn't say that Pressly was a long man. I said he was a low upside RP. That is true regardless of what role he is in. Kintzler is the closer in this bizarro world but that doesn't change that he is a low upside arm. All of these guys and Haley are sort of decent MLB relievers. I don't necessarily disagree with having any these guys on the team but the problem is that there are too many never going to be anything type of guys in the bullpen. And the Twins don't really have any logical choices to promote but I can't wait until guys like Jay, Burdi, Chargois, Melatokis or Reed are eating unimportant innings in blowouts to see how these guys do against MLB pitching.

Right now the only plan that I really like is putting a BIG pile of money out there for Ibaka and landing a defensive 4 that can shoot 3's. Once that has happened go after solid wing with the remaining 5-ish M. Let's assume Ibaka isn't available to the Wolves. I don't like Millsap all that much. I think he is a so-so defender on a team with so-so defenders and I get concerned how well the offense would flow with Lavine - Wiggins - Milsap - Towns together. I would prefer Taj Gibson who could function more like a 6th man and bring the defense up a level. Right now I am assuming that Porter and Haywood won't really make it to FA and resign. I am assuming that a Wiggins/Lavine centered trade for a top player doesn't really go anywhere. JaMychal Green is an interesting RFA. James Johnson is another attainable player that seems to fit. PJ Tucker could fill the role of 6th man on a wing. None of these are great players but they significantly strengthen the Wolves bench while bringing defense and can shoot a few 3's a game. Pair that with the development of the #6 pick and it wouldn't be a terrible offseason.

I think you missed the greater point. It is fine to have someone like Haley when you don't have Tonkin, Pressly and Breslow (a 3rd lefty). Haley is fine in his role but the entire bullpen is made of guys that are never going to be anything more than long men or 6th inning guys. I would love it if 2+ guys in that group were replaced by someone with long term potential and used as a long man or 6th inning guy now.

What kind of potential value is there though? If I was going to use this spot then it would be with a guy that would either flame out or become a setup level guy. The problem right now is that the Twins have Haley, Tonkin and Pressly all filling the same role (low upside long/6th inning RP'ers). And Breslow as a LOOGY. And Kintzler as smoke and mirrors low upside closer. At some point the Twins need to add some upside into the bullpen. Somewhere.

And inevitably someone else is injured by the time he comes back. Which has been a point made all along although I have still wanted another hitter (not an extra utility fielder) up with the MLB team. But the problem with the Twins bullpen is that they have several guys that are functioning as long/mop up men. One is okay but they need some guys that be trusted in tight situations and it doesn't look like many taking up spots in the bullpen have that potential.

It is quite interesting how quickly things change. During the offseason some/many didn't see the need any additional #3 upside starters in the high minors and now the Twins have literally nobody behind Berrios (or Mejia) to call up. During the offseason there was a sentiment that since Ervin was older and not likely to be part of winning teams that he should be dealt regardless what the return was. The same was said of Santiago, Hughes and Gibson to some extent since we needed to get prospects into rotation to see what they had. May is injured, Duffey might be staying in the pen, Gonsalves is injured and Jay moved to the pen. Nearly zero depth. Now the Twins have no depth at SP and retaining Santana and Santiago look like great moves. Gibson and Hughes are rather indifferent moves but somebody needs to pitch and the Twins don't have many options. For the record I would trade Santana (and would have this offseason) for a top 50 prospect and a top 200-ish (or two) flyers. With a strong preference towards starters obviously. Otherwise definitely hang onto Santana but the end will come harshly. So far he has gotten better with age but 35+ pitchers don't have a great track record.

They only see him once/game and his fastball is 1.7 mph faster this year and might be an okay pitch now. It is quite common for starters with limited pitches and mediocre fastballs to become very good in the bullpen. For example Glen Perkins.

Of course the current ERA (and other stats) aren't sustainable but I have reached the point where I am happy if the pitching is merely a little below average vs historically bad like previous seasons. The question should be whether or not a little below average is sustainable. Santana and Santiago have long enough track records that they can be considered solid to good pitchers. Hughes and Gibson (and especially Gibson) haven't shown much so far this year and that is the big concern going forward. Mejia is a wild card with modest upside this year. The reasonable best case is that he is a solid pitcher but there is considerable downside for this season. Berrios is the Twins one big potential change but he hasn't shown the ability to translate that to the MLB yet. The outlook changes considerably if he takes that step this year. But with Gonsalves's injury and Jay's switch to relief the upper minors is depleted of pitching and most likely we see the next version of Albers, Pino, Jason Miller, etc... if an injury occurs or a trade happens. Or multiple pitchers get demoted/cut due to ineffectiveness. Imo the upside this year is an average rotation and the downside is something looking like last year if there is just a bad break or two.

Semantics and I think we are saying the same thing except that other 3 part stories have more stand alone-ness than Ep 7.

But the money was spent on Santiago (+/- 1M). The Twins might have plenty of money to spend but that has nothing to do with Nolasco other than they are getting something useful out of Santiago.