Thrylos

Few things that have to be mentioned: Unlike Santana Koufax went to the World Series 4 times, his team won 3 times, and 2 of those times Koufax was the WS MVP. He also won a NL MVP award in 1963 and was second in the MVP award in his other 2 CY years, 1965 & 1966. Johan Santana started 5 post-season games and won only one of them. Post-season matters. Also Koufax left the game in his prime after he won 2 Cy Young awards in a row at age 30, instead of dragging it around another 6-7 seasons. In his worst season after age 24, Koufax led the league in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. Santana's 2012 hurts his candidacy. I think that another Twins' ace who was also was traded to the Mets, is a better comparable for Santana, and hard to make a case that Frank Viola is a Hall of Famer... There are pitchers who equally or even more dominant than Santana in their peaks, and they are not in the HOF because of longevity issues (Doc Gooden), or perception (Kevin Brown) who are not there. Kevin Brown is an interesting contemporary comparable to Santana (career: 211-144, 3.28 ERA, 127 ERA+, 68.5 bWAR) who was never thought a dominating pitcher because of the lack of strikeouts. His 1996 season was crazy and was robbed for the Cy Young (17-11, 1.89 ERA, 215 ERA+, 0.944 WHIP, 8 bWAR). He also appeared in 2 WS and won one. So, unless Brown, Viola and Gooden are in the Hall of Fame, I'd find it hard to make a case for Johan.

This is a misconception. Look at Ozzie Smith and his career .666 OPS and 13 gold gloves and Visquel with career .688 OPS and 11 gold gloves. Or Twins' own Vic Power, career .725 OPS at 1B and 7 gold gloves. Or JT Snow at 1B for that matter. Or Paul Blair, his career .684 OPS at CF with 8 gold gloves. They have to be decent with the bat otherwise they would be reserves. Yes, some players tend to be favored if they are better hitters than others, but not all gold gloves are undeserved. Part of the problem is that there have been no great consensus objective defensive measurement (unlike hitting) which makes defining "the best defenders" very difficult and subjective.

The "Wild Card in August as opposed to on the way to 100 losses" has nothing to do with pitching. The fact is that the Twins' pitching in 2017, if anything, is worse than the pitching in 2016 (data on #11 above,) other than things influenced by the much improved defense in 2017 (like WHIP/BABIP & ERA)

I think that the years of specific players occupying the DH spot are behind us. Teams are using the DH spot to play position players who need some rest, tweaked something and cannot be 100% on the field etc. In modern baseball it is a rotation position optimally. So players like Vargas (and Park and Palka btw) might be at a disadvantage, unless they have a clear defensive position. Fortunately (for all 3), the Twins do not have a heir apparent to Mauer who can start in 2019, other than one of them (with Rooker being a wild card in this and potentially MLB-ready late next season) so one of the 3 will definitely be with the team in 2018 and split time with Mauer at 1B and DH.

Curtiss will be fun to see. His biggest issue has been control and when that is off, he is off. That is something to definitely watch, because he tends to walk people (his BB/9 has been about 4 this season, and it his watch have come in bunches.) He allowed only one less walk than allowed hits this season, so it is a problem, and will be interesting to see what will happen in the majors. I hope that Melville stays with the team. I liked what I saw from his fastball and curve (slider was awful and needs to go away) and wonder how that might play in the pen, esp. with that FB getting a couple ticks up towards 98 or so

Belisle and Perkins are Free Agents (Perkins has a team option that almost certainly will not be exercised). Pressly is arbitration-eligible. May is a starter. So you are looking at 7 plus Pressly (plus Moya, Jay, Bard etc.) Not a bad problem to have and also the potential to include some in trades towards starting pitching.

.385/.400/.923 .508 wOBA, 225 wRC+ 6.5 AB/HR Kennys Vargas' 2017 numbers in high leverage situations. I think that those numbers really make the impression that Vargas has been much better than he has actually been this season. I also think that the Rochester shuttle has not help him perform quite as well as he can this season and the fact that, unlike Grossman, he has an option has hurt him. The Twins will need to evaluate him. Going on with him as their primary DH for the rest of the season will actually show what Vargas can do. The other thing with Vargas is that he is a low fastball hitter. He punishes 2-seamers, hitting .429 off them and having only a 8% K%. Sliders and curve balls however have hurt him (.107 & .160 BAA and 43.3 and 42.3 K% respectively.) So there is a clear recipe on how to get him out and a clear defect that has to fix to become productive long term. And he is 27, not 22.

I do appreciate the fact the the new Twins' Front Office is much more active with player movement in general. In addition to trying to find pitchers everywhere, it has been much more decisive in placing players to the DL, as well as demoting under-performers (Gibson, Santiago,) which would have been unheard of in a TR & Co-led Front Office. That said, the Twins' pitching this season has been slightly worse than their pitching in 2016, other than numbers that are affected by the improved 2017 defense (like ERA and WHIP). Here: 2017 Twins Overall Pitching: 4.85 FIP, 1.39 WHIP (.295 BABIP), 10.4 K-BB% Starters: 5.02 FIP, 1.42 WHIP (.294 BABIP), 9.3 K-BB% Relievers: 4.57 FIP, 1.34 WHIP (.295 BABIP), 12.1 K-BB% 2016 Twins Overall Pitching: 4.57 FIP, 1.45 WHIP (.319 BABIP), 11.3 K-BB% Starters: 4.82 FIP, 1.47 WHIP (.315 BABIP), 9.8 K-BB% Relievers: 4.18 FIP, 1.43 WHIP (.324 BABIP), 13.6 K-BB% I do understand that 2017 is an asset evaluation season and trying to build a pitching staff in multiple ways made sense. But the fact is that it did not work, if you look under the cover of the improved defense. What this team needs to do to compete is to start building a pitching staff using the 2 ways it did not use in 2017: a. Trade older assets and prospects for high quality young, MLB-ready pitching, under club control and b. sign high quality, young, MLB-ready pitching as a free agents. The one thing I would have love to see them do, and I hope they do it soon, is to pull the plug on underperformers quicker. They did it with Breslow; Perkins and Santiago should follow. There is no reason for Perkins to be there, even as a mop-up pitcher. I'd rather see someone like Turley at that role. Time to let the ghost go.

Ok. Not Melville. Then who? Give a name

I think that the Twins should gather and analyze all data they have on Romero, including average velocity during games and throughout the season, give him a thorough physical exam and make an informed decision. Do I know what that decision should be? No without that data. Do I trust the (same old minor league & medical) Twins' staff to make the right decision? Not sure.

This works both ways as well In other words, no matter how good Dozier is, unless the Twins will get pitching, they will not win. So, they will better spend that $ on getting pitching rather than extending Dozier...

Facts: The Twins need starting pitching more than a second baseman with at most one win more than his potential replacements (*)Dozier's best season was the Twins' worse (since they moved to Minnesota)The marker for second base among potential contenders in the next off-season will look better than last with the Mets, Giants, Dodgers (again,) Diamondbacks, and even Rockies and Cardinals in the mix If the Twins can use Dozier, potentially in a package, and get someone like Matt Harvey (who is a question mark health-wise for sure, but), it will be a big win for them. They can use someone like him more than they can use Dozier (*) Eddie Rosario who has very similar wRC+ and wOBA as Dozier, could be a more than adequate replacement and not sure why the Twins stopped thinking that (well... TR). Gordon, Escobar, etc. are the ones who can really step in.

Do you really have an issue with Gee? Melville was slated to start yesterday for Rochester. The other options were either Zack Littell the Chattanooga starter or start someone else in short rest. Who would your start?

I am not (thus the "something like"). Still less annual contract value than Verlander, Samardzijia etc, plus the Twins will have the pre-prime and prime seasons, unlike the older pitchers

To tell you the truth, I'd rather see them go for something like 6/$60M (Yu Darvish's contract) to get Otani whose age is closer to that of the Twins' core players

I'd trade those prospects for someone like Archer, but not Verlander. I think that Verlander is a number 3 pitcher who will regress, because he is at that stage of this career. E. Santana-like. They do need to address pitching, but they need better than Verlander. They need at least one starter better than Berrios and another at that level. I am not sure that Verlander will be that in 2018-20... Plus, I hate trading prospects who may amount to something within the division.

To put things into perspective: Verlander in 2017: 3.96 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.31 WHIP, 14.0 % K-BB%. Owed $56 Mil for his age 35 and 36 seasons and has a $22 M vesting option for his age 37 season. Berrios in 2017: 3.99 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 14.5 % K-BB% So Verlander is pitching just about as good as Berrios this season. Older Mystery pitcher in 2016: 3.43 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 12.1% K-BB% Arguably better numbers than Verlander in 2017, no? Hint: He is with the Twins now. That's what you risk when you try to get Verlander. Never mind the 3 more years of contract and the prospects you will give up... Plus: Getting Verlander might get the Twins to the post-season but will not get them past the Red Sox, Astros and Dodgers. So they better play the kids instead

Can he pitch?

Here is comparing 2017 team pitching with 2016: Twins team pitching stats: 2017: 4.89 FIP, 27th; 1.41 WHIP, t23-25; K-BB%: 10.1%, 27th 2016: 4.57 FIP, 27th; 1.45 WHIP, t25-28; K-BB%: 11.3%, 21st If anything, I'd say they have been pretty much the same, if not regressed a bit. Matter of fact is that the Twins are where they are despite horrible pitching. Differences: 1. This season the Front Office is willing to get rid of pitchers and recycle/reuse until someone sticks 2. This season the team seems to win close games (and still getting pelted in some games) while last season it was consistent pelting 3. Of course defense, and that is what drives the ERA diff, not pitching (check at FIP) Regardless. I do not see how Allen has a job. Period. He should be the first one that goes come October (or even hopefully November.)

Well, it happened to what's his face, and most of us applauded it. Umpires are the only part of the game that is not being held accountable in a transparent way. MLB should have standards of performance and dismiss umpires who do not meet or exceed. Too many egos among the ranks of the umpires, with too much power to effect a game's outcome, and that has to be dealt.

Pretty sure that the live interview was in a previous Gleeman & Geek podcast

Lewin Diaz would beg to disagree with this. I would suspect that the Twins see Rooker more like an OF (and his usage shows this) than a 1B, which is ok, because there is not a glut of OF power in the organiziation as well. Good problem to have, but it is not like there were not other first basemen in the organization. Vargas should probably added to that list.

He managed both his sons in that team. As a matter of fact so did Sandy Alomar, albeit in the minors. I just don't get that much sensitive, esp. for a team that drafts and keeps around sons and nephews of managers and coaches without merit.

There is no mean for 1-run games win % to regress towards. It is not BABIP, HR/FB, or LOB% Good teams win close games. Bad teams lose them. That's that. No regression.

About time the Twins have a younger manager who comes from a winning culture, understands the concept of win probability and the situational things that kill it (bunting, hitting and running etc), can get the best from his players by playing to their strengths (eg. Buxton's SB attempts compared to his speed is pathetic), understanding the concept of leverage while utilizing the pen, and be critical of his coaches. That is not Molitor. Allen would be fired by any other team after last season, and the pitching has not improved this season. Molitor did not make the correct decision about him, as well. He needs to go. And I don't care whether he is from St. Paul or St. Maarten