Thrylos

That chart actually shows a pretty nice correlation between HR/G and R/G, which should be expected. I'd love to see a plot of K/PA or K/9, vs size of strike zone, and vs average FB velocity. Here is the later from 2007 on http://i0.wp.com/www.mikereinold.com/wp-content/uploads/Average-MLB-Fastball-Velocity.jpg?resize=580%2C258 I'd say that it correlates pretty well with that K/PA curve. Would love to see a strike zone one too or even league % looking strikeouts over time, which would be a strike zone size indicator. The thing with strikeouts is that the pitcher is at least as responsible as the batter for one, and the strike zone and umpires and catchers framing have a role as well. If Sano strikes out 250 times, and hits 50 HR, I would have no problem, esp. since he is also projected to walk about 130some times (Twins' record 145 Killebrew; franchise record 151 Yost; will both have Sano's name at some point...)

Their announcement said that it was preliminary. I suspect that they will have another catcher likely Carlos Paulino. Mike Strong will likely be in the team as well, maybe even Marcus Walden. I would be totally surprised if: a. Polanco is not their opening day SS and b. Alex Meyer is not their number one starter (btw he was the first person announced by the Red Wings' people) Buddy Boshers and Dan Runzler do not belong in the same sentence. Yes they both signed from the independents, but Runzler has 2 world series rings with the Giants. Darnell might or might not start, per the Rochester people. I suspect that he and Strong might alternate. Interesting team with major deficiencies at the RHRP spot. Would love to see a 7 game series between Chattanooga and Rochester

As far as who else is trending here are 2 names: Check out what Danny Santana has done since he was ensured of a roster spot. Seems to have 2-3 hits daily with SB left and right. Hope he gets that going into the season. Lots of us wanted him to be traded, but he arguably had the best ST of any Twins' hitter, with a ridiculous .370/.412/.674 slash line, lots of timely hits, and just 1 GDP: Trevor Plouffe.

Big fan of Palka, and already in my Top 20 (18 actually) but he is not the only one who offers it from the left side. Vargas does as a switch hitter, so does Minier (as another switch) hitter, and so does Lewin Diaz who also is a lefty who looks like he gained 2-3 inches in height and 20 lbs this off-season. Blackenhorn is a lefty too and his power is up there as well Palka is a great trade return for Chris Herrmann and will likely make the Twins sooner than later. His power/speed combination is pretty unique in the organization, but his power from the left side is not.

Barry Bonds would beg to disagree with the above statement.

Sano will walk a whole bunch this season. .310/.463/.571 this spring, which is probably his ceiling (other than SLG) for 2016. .300/.400/.607(*) with 50(*) HRs and AL MVP. (and Reusse eating crow) (*) Twins' individual season records, both held by Killebrew now (at -1 of those numbers)

When was the last time that Terry Ryan ate $25 million? The most he (Black)burned was $5.5M. Huge difference. Most likely, and if they have a ready replacement, they trade him to the NL for an equally bad contract.

Originally Published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ----- With the Twins' Spring Training almost in the books and having spend about 10 days in Fort Myers following the Twins' closely (here are all my Spring Training articles in Chronological order,) I am ready to make a prediction for the 2016 Twins. This team has a few question marks left, but a lot of my concerns were answered: Miguel Sano will be a moster with the bat again this season, and regardless of his size, he will be at least as good an outfielder as Torii Hunter was last season, when it all said and done. Ervin Santana and Kyle Gibson are men on a mission in the Twins' rotation and might be the best 1-2 punch the Twins' had since Jack Morris and Scott Erickson in 1991. Phil Hughes is pitching better than last season and Ricky Nolasco is pitching like a man with something to prove, and he has to. The only question mark in the rotation is Tommy Milone, who could be easily replaced by the likes of Alex Meyer or Jose Berrios, or even Taylor Roger, if the need comes. Byung Ho Park is the real thing. And he does not have an attitude about it. In 2015 DH was the most productive position in the Twins' lineup, mainly because the promotion of Sano. The Twins got .251/.338/.421 with 21 HRs from the DH position in 2015. I expect this to be Park's baseline. Byron Buxton has shown signs of improvement with the bat, albeit small. His glove alone is worth +2 wins and much improved Danny Santana and Oswaldo Arcia (who is in tremendous shape btw,) can pick the slack if necessary. Kurt Suzuki also looks better and refreshed. Will a smaller workload keep them getting close to his 2014 numbers? I hope so. Joltin' Joe Mauer (sorry couldn't help myself) has an .802 OPS for the Spring, which beat his .756 and .667 OPS the last 2 Springs, sunglasses or not. More importantly this team looks like a team that wants to win, a team that wins and a team that has fun doing it. The biggest question mark is the bullpen, and especially the closer. If you find out that the out of shape closer, who fell apart the last 2 seasons, took up home brewing as a hobby in the off-season and his fastball and slider are a good 5 to 6 miles per hour below their peak, you have to be concerned. On the other hand, if Perkins falters, the Twins have good options at AA and AAA, including righties JT Chargois and Nick Burdi who can have a part in the Twins' pen today, and lefty Mason Melotakis, who is a few innings away from returning from TJ surgery as a dominant lefty. The pen was the Twins' biggest concern this off-season and it has not been addressed at all. The 2016 Twins will go as far as their pen lets them go. I hope that Ryan has a short leash on Perkins and does the right thing for the team when he has to. Because of this, and my lack of trust in the Twins' GM and the Twins' closer, I predict that the Twins will finish the 2016 season with an 87-75 record. 90 wins will not be out of reach, with a couple of early season pen investments...

I was there this Spring. His FB was 88-91 mph and Slider 79-83 mph. Proof or not. I know what the radar readings I read were. And some of them on the fast Hammond Stadium gun. Beer is fine. If you are not overweight and ineffective as a pro athlete and if you do not chronic back issues from being overweight as a pro athlete.

Amen. And he should ship a case of expensive bubbly at Reusse's house (a totally fitting present.)

I think that you got this 100%. When your out of shape "proven closer" takes home brewing as a new hobby during the off-season and loses 5-7 mph off his peak FB and SL velocity, the writing is on the wall...

I'd love to hear how top free agents feel about this. Based on the fact that the last time the Twins have signed a top free agent was 25 seasons ago, i'd like to dispute that statement.

his last MLB season (2014): .177/.284/.315 slash line his only 5 games in the PCL last season before traded to Altanta and released: .176/.263/.235 Subuterrean OPS does not grow on trees. I'd rather see Vargas/Kepler get those 275 PAs; higher likelihood of success for the Twins

I just hope he does not accept the assignment and goes away for good. Zero with the glove, mediocre with the bat. Plus the White Sox taint. Good riddance.

Then Ryan would have learned zero from 99+96+96+92

Different throwing arm, about 5 inches in height and a good 40 lbs. You don't want the lefty around if you are cooking in your back yard...

Facts: Escobar's Twins career: .262/.305/.404 Escobar in the last 2 seasons: .268/.311/.424 Just entering his prime. Cannot see him regressing by any means. .275/.320/.435

FWIW: Over at Fort Myers Twins' gift stores they had Shirtseys (and Jerseys) of the following players: Mauer Dozier Perkins Sano Park Buxton only. In my about 10 day stay, 90% of the Sano stuff was sold out, and about 3/4 of the Park and Buxton Even for marketing and PR reasons, he will be in the 25-man roster. I think that he has improved a bit from last season in that he now is taking some balls. His defense is worth a few runs in the OF. If he learns to bunt better and if he plays 100% all the time, he might be ok this season, like 3-4 wins, most with the glove...

13 pitchers are too many also. There is no need to carry so many.

I think that the Nolasco over Duffey in the rotation is a done deal. based on this: I think that, for the same reasons that May is in the pen (they need him there,) the Twins should bite the bullet and get Duffey in the pen as well. They are competing. And with that pen it will be difficult to compete. Not sure about Tonkin as a lock. Before the other day against the Rays, I was pretty sure that he will not be there. Still, Pressly has been better all Spring and was better last season in the bigs. Abad, O'Rourke and Runzler all pitched about the same. Very few K's from Abad are bothersome. I think that the Twins' should go with the devil they know O'Rourke, who also happens to be on the 40-man roster. Unless Duffey gets a spot in the pen, I see Pressly and Kintzler. Just cannot be excited about this pen... Really.

That's not accurate 2 days ago: 14 pitches 9 strikes 5 balls (3 FBs 2 SLs)

.250/.310/.410 and traded by the All Star break for a closer

He was getting shellacked on the curveball. Hitters were letting fastballs go and waiting for the curve, which is really really bad news for him.

Originally Published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- Today was the last live game from Fort Myers. Yesterday, I shared some thoughts about the Twins 25-man roster and based on what I have seen previously, Rickey Nolasco should be the Twins' fifth starter. With another stellar performance today against the Rays, going for 6 innings allowing only 3 hits, no earned runs, walking 2 and striking out 7, he cemented that position, especially when in Field number 2 his only competition, Tyler Duffey, allowed two home runs among other hard hit balls this afternoon. Pending a trade, I can see no way that Nolasco will not be in the Twins' rotation, and arguably has pitched pretty well this spring, earning a spot. Glen Perkins' appearance today and the rest of the Spring has been worrisome. His fastball barely reached 91 and his slider 81, and has been batter all over Hammond Stadium without finishing an inning. In 2/3 of an inning he allowed 2 hits and a walk with no strikeouts, adding up to 3 runs. I hope Terry Ryan has a plan B in his back pocket for a closer, because Perkins is continuing his decline from last season second half. As far as position players go, Eduardo Nunez was horrible today: Two errand throws to the first and a dropped ball on a base steal attempt did not help the Twins' cause. Let's call it a hick up and hope that it will not continue to happen. Byron Buxton has a lackluster performance a couple days ago, but today, he made up for it. He has a great running catch in the first innings and also got an infield hit in a ball hit deep in the shortstop, in the same situation he did not previously. I think that he also might be cementing a spot in the 25 man roster. So is Danny Santana, who got an infield hit in a drag bunt, then stole second, and in a play that featured 3 errant throws by Rays scored. Great heads up play, plus his speed and versatility will help. Oswaldo Arcia likely won the last 25 man spot over former hated White Sox player Carlos Quentin. Arcia has been better on the field that Quentin, making some difficult plays, whereas Quentin has no position, and has been better with the stick and the basepaths, stealing a couple of bases so far. I think that Quentin was brought in as a plan B if Byung Ho Park did not pan out right away as a 1B/DH, but this is not the case. So it looks like the Twins' position player side in the 25 man roster is about set. There are still some question-marks in the bullpen, as I indicated yesterday. Next: Catching an airplane up North tomorrow and either later this week or early next will will give my Spring Training Redux and my prediction for the Twins' 2016. Still need to chew on this a bit...

Not sure that Berrios will be the first to be called up. At this point, if a AAA starting pitcher needs to be called up, it will be because of an injury/DL stint. Pen is a different story, because there are pitchers with options.