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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    Nothing is "wrong" with Berrios. This is business as usual for him: Data: 2019 First half: 3.00 ERA, 1.111 WHIP Second half: 4.89 ERA, 1.478 WHIP 2018 First half: 3.68 ERA, 1.013 WHIP Second half: 4.15 ERA, 1.400 WHIP 2017 First half: 3.53 ERA, 1.079 WHIP Second half: 4.24 ERA, 1.375 WHIP So he has been worse the second half of every season. I think that mechanics might also be the symptom here. He looks like he is out of juice and altering his mechanics to compensate... Root cause is likely an endurance situation and what he has been doing to prep himself for the season has not work the last 3 seasons. He might want to change.
  2. Thrylos
    Based on that data looks like Rosario is slower to react to fly balls than last season. Would love to see how that changes with Buxton at CF vs Kepler at CF. My eyeballing says that when Buxton is playing at CF the other OFs wait to see if he has a jump on it because he is all over the place. Another change I saw at UZR is his "arm" rating, which makes sense because runners have stopped challenging him. So I think that this is as much Buxton as the others at the OF...
  3. Thrylos
    Sure but population does not equal market size. Market size is population times per capita GDP. The Twins cities are about 20% bigger market than Houston. 2010 data from here, but I bet they will be in the ballpark now as well: Houston–Galveston–Brazoria, Texas CMSA 4,669,571 pop $21,701 per capita GDP. Total market size: 101,339 MM Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minnesota MSA 3,478,415 pop $35,388 per capita GDP. TMS: 123,094 MM
  4. Thrylos
    The Twins still a closer (I assume that Romo will replace Parker as the RH setup man) and a starter better than Berrios to be relevant. Now as far as this trade goes: Diaz has been underrated by the national media. Easily he would have been about #15 or so in my mid-season list (if I had one ) He was close in the top 10 some seasons ago. Chris Vallimont sounds a lot to me like Edwar Colina (constant mid 90s, flashes top 90s FB, plus slider, third pitch work in progress) but with about 6 inches of height and better control and more missed bats. Colina would have been very close to Diaz in my list, and, by extension so would Vallimont (even though I have never see him pitch other than in video today). Both look like closers rather than starters to me... So the Twins swapped a first baseman for an equally rated pitcher. Both about a couple seasons away from making the Twins (Diaz might make the Marlins earlier.) And then they added an old dude who might get somebody out this post-season and another guy. I'll take it. But they need more to be relevant. For sure.
  5. Thrylos
    Everyone other than the Jays would do that trade
  6. Thrylos
    Need to add Hildenburgen to balance this trade
  7. Thrylos
    The future is now. If you are always going to be concerned about the future and do nothing in the present for the sake of the future, you are guaranteed not to have a The Twins need Syndergaard for this and the next 2 seasons more than they need Kirilloff and Lewis. This trade should happen, with the added caveat that the Twins need to look what they need to add to get Diaz. Kirilloff and Lewis are blocked by Kepler and Polanco for the next 5 seasons, and I am not sure that Javier is not better than Lewis at this point. They are just prospects who we hope to one day perform at the level of the players the Twins can get now. It is such a no-brainer. This will push Odorizzi to the pen. His high fastball will play there and he has been fine for an inning or two. Got to make it happen.
  8. Thrylos
    Syndergaard + Diaz Giles Done.
  9. Thrylos
    If Mauer did not have a concussion that trade would not have hurt the Twins. One cannot predict future injuries when trading to win now. And if Ramos was not traded, the Twins could have not made the post season that year. Capps was lights out. 2.00 ERA and 16/18 saves. That trade worked for the Twins. Got them to the postseason. The issue was Ryan re-signing Capps for no reason afterwards when he was not that good.
  10. Thrylos
    It is still too early and teams have their prices too high as far as buyers go and too low as far as sellers go. When time gets closer to the deadline people are going to start sweating things will happen. Right now is like playing chicken going 5 mph against each other. The speedometer will start increasing closer to the deadline, so someone will have to give up. Or not. Esp. as far as rentals go.
  11. Thrylos
    I must be missing something. Twins' players OPS the last 5 games (5 Twins' games not the players' last 5 games) : Garver 2.060 Polanco 1.308 Adrianza 1.300 Cruz 1.128 Sano 1.004 Castro .990 Kepler .929 Not that Polanco and Kepler did not contribute, but there were other players who contributed more...
  12. Thrylos
    They are still paying Addison Reed $8.5M not to pitch. That cash can go long way towards covering a set up guys' salary in 2020.
  13. Thrylos
    1892. They switched from the American Association to the NL before that season, along with the Brooklyn Dodgers. That team was founded in 1881. There was an earlier National League team with a similar name, Cincinnati Red Stockings, that lasted from 1876 to 1879 in the NL and then was disbanded. An even earlier Cincinnati Red Stockings team of the National Association of Base Ball Players moved to Boston in 1871. So the Reds were the 3rd team with a similar name in Cincinnati and were originally an AA team.
  14. Thrylos
    Re: Arraez and ROY: Currently Luis Arraez is 4th in fWAR among AL position player Rookies behind Brandon Lowe 2.5 fWAR, Daniel Vogelbach, 2.1 fWAR, and Danny Jansen 1.2 fWAR. The only Rookie pitcher who should be in the conversation is O's starter John Means who is 7-4 with 2.50 ERA for that team, and should be the forerunner for the AL ROY award. If Arraez overtakes Lowe and Means regresses, then he has hopes. He would probably need to spend the rest of the season in the bigs for that to happen.
  15. Thrylos
    The Twins need to be close to feel that they have at least half favorable rotation matchups with any post-season team to be relevant in the post-season. Not sure that they are there against the Astros and Dodgers (at least). Also they need to have a pitcher who they trust that no matter what will keep them in the game. They had that in Johan. They even had that in Radke. Not sure that they have that in anyone in this rotation. I would think that everyone in this rotation is prone to a 5 run inning out of the blue. So a starter better than Berrios/Odorizzi is a must for this team to be relevant in the post season. This might actually improve the pen by pushing one of the starters there. As far as the pen goes, they need 2 arms better than Rogers for the RH setup up position and the closer position.
  16. Thrylos
    How about this: There is only one starter or bench position player (Gonzalez) with OPS+ less than 100, and his is 96 There is only one starting pitcher (Pineda) with ERA+ less than 100, and his is 99 There is only one relief pitcher (Magill) with ERA+ less than 100, and his is 98
  17. Thrylos
    I checked what it will take to get Bumgarner and Smith from the Giants and Larnach was more than enough according to that site... I go my doubts about the accuracy of that site
  18. Thrylos
    It will probably take Lewis and Kirilloff and one pitcher, but that will be fine. The Polanco and Kepler extensions took care of the starting SS and the LH hitting and throwing OF positions for 5 years. Sell high...
  19. Thrylos
    On the other hand, a major leaguer is closer to his prime than a minor leaguer so you assume that he will improve as a player. Have to compare similar players. Someone like Polanco for example, has has BABIP around .345 each of the past season. In the minors his average BABIP was .330. Pretty much in the ballpark. Kepler's BABIP decreased by 50 points or so in the majors, but he is a different player now, hitting homers instead of doubles (and homers are subtracted in the BABIP calculation, since they are not in play.) It is typical for power hitters to have lower BABIP than non-power hitters. I am not sure that Arraez will have that problem
  20. Thrylos
    I just hope that other teams have Gordon ranked that high. He might help bring some badly needed pitching for the Twins.
  21. Thrylos
    Interesting. Math: Arraez's BABIP right now is .449. He is hitting .442/.524/.558 His career BABIP has been around .360. That is .090 points higher. If you think that it will normalize to that and subtract it from this slash line, you got .353/.435/.449, which is better than Rod Carew's (to pick on your username) career .328/.393/.429. Do you call that low ceiling? I'd take that every day.
  22. Thrylos
    Agreed, but those 2 do not belong in the same sentence. Hutchison was never good, Allen was really good for a while.
  23. Thrylos
  24. Thrylos
    Including GIDP? As far as WPA, Ks are better than the above and as good as any other out that either does not advance a runner or ends the inning... As the third or first out a strikeout is as bad as a robbed HR out. Might not be as pretty, but it is worth as much, and you are talking about worth.
  25. Thrylos
    Not about you Ted, per se. It just seems that there is an article about Sano's shortcomings on a weekly basis on this site, without appreciating the fact that he is having an overall pretty darn good season, esp. in the power department, despite missing the whole ST and a month of the season with an injury. Just getting pretty old, esp. in a season that Twins' fans should be rejoicing. Lots of other things to talk about than Sano's shortcomings. At least you kept it on the field
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