Thrylos

Guess the last time the Twins signed top Free Agents, it did not help them.... As a reminder, that was 1991

There others who are having great seasons, but Sano had a historic season, objectively. Analysis and argument here (kind of long and there are objective measures involved...)

One thing about this coming off-season: One can spend $30-35M/year and build a rotation with 3 free agents who were below expectations this year, but their peripherals show that they will rebound, and they are young enough (alphabetically) : Dan Haren Phil Hughes Josh Johnson (Also Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco and Tim Lincecum... there are plenty younger FA Ps out there, unlike last off season) but Ryan has to go or go off his bottom feeding spendthrift ways that brought the likes of Correia, Marquis, Ponson et. al. to the Twins. He's got the cash to spend ($20M off the books for Morneau and Blackburn) he better spend it.

Kepler is not a top ten by any means. Nobody will claim him in the MLB portion of the draft. As is he can be claimed at the AA portion of the draft. They need to put him in Rochester's roster to keep him from the AAA portion of rule 5 (Vargas too) and he will be fine.

don't you love typos

Twins' own Pedro Hernandez is a good comparable for Miguel Surbaran. Similar statute and very similar stuff.

The Twins should not trade Sano and Buxton, but they have some decisions to make and mainly: Do they trade one of Rosario/Dosier ?(before their stock slips and sell low again). The farm system is not deep enough in many positions to really afford them trades. Others of value I see potentially being trade bait are Harrison, Kepler (in my book, Walker, DJ Hicks and Baby Papi are ahead of these 2) and some of the Lefty relievers. But it is not that deep of a system after the top 10-15 and there is not much overlap...

What amazed me with Blackburn is that the Twins never tried to turn him into a pen guy, like they did with, another failed starter, Perkins. In the minors Blackburn used to have a four-seamer (which he practically abandoned in the majors for the sinker) that used to run up to 97. He could have really been a good pen part and even maybe earn the contract money. Hope he turns it around for a National league team that does not play the Twins

It's a back to the future situation... Ryan carries a 5 pounder notebook (like a big three ring binder size) to ST games with him

Agreed with Oldgoat about that game being the highlight of his career (and funny enough, 2 beloved by most Twins' fans players were the reason the Twins did not make the post-season: Jim Thome with that home run and Mike Cuddyer who did not try to knock AJP out and score) I am amazed that the Twins did not try a pen role for Blackburn (like they did with Perkins) It was probably the $ and that ill-advised contract. In the minors he did have a 97 mph four-seamer (that Andy took away) which would had been a decent weapon in the pen. Maybe he'll surface as a pen guy someplace

About Meyer's (and May's too) numbers this season: - Meyer has a 2.82 FIP - His (and May's and most of the NB Ps) BABIP is in the .3xxs because of the bad New Britain D (of the range part, and this is obvious to all of us who have watched them play) - His xFIP is probably in the low 2s This seems like a guy who if healthy can do better than most (if not all) the people in the Twins' rotation today. I hope he has a chance to fight for a spot in the rotation next ST.

I think that if this is the rotation to start 2014, Ryan should be fired on the spot.

went the way of the dinosaurs, where they should be... Great stuff, btw.

And what exactly this would do for the Twins in the long run?

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- The art of evaluating performance inside a baseball diamond has undoubtedly changed the last few years with the infusion of science (math & statistic notations.) In the "good old days" if someone "hit 300", with more than 30 home runs and either more than 100 runs scored or 100 "ribies", he had a great season. That was the measuring stick that separated great from very good. And it still does, mainly on the mainstream press, game broadcasts and talk radio. The expressions "he hits two seventy five" and "he cannot hit his weight" will be there as performance measures, albeit as crude as an Amish scooter is for propelling devise when compared to a Tesla . Still, even that is light years ahead than the Fred Flintstone mobile of a hitter's performance evaluation, the "eyeballing" method, which introduces measures such as "the special sound a ball makes when leaves the bat" or "the quickness of someone's wrists" or the way "someone is flying on the bases" or . There has been evolution. OPS as a concept was introduced in 1984, and then was refined to OPS+ or adjusted OPS, that normalizes for park and league effects, plus adds an easy to compare baseline of 100 that is the league average that season, for an easy reference. So an OPS+ higher than 100 is better than average and less than 100 worse. Much improved from "ribies" and other cumulative stats, but still one dimensional Gremlin-like. What OPS lacks, is that it disregards the ability of someone to sacrifice runs, steal bases, score runs, avoid hitting into double plays, and all the other goodies that are happening in real life baseball with the bat or at the bases. A year after OPS was created, in 1985, Bill James introduced a measure for offensive performance he called Runs Created . This concept has been improved (see previous reference) constantly to account for things like stolen bases and sacrifices. Tom Tango, eventually improved the concept or Runs Created and morphed it into weighted Runs Created or wRC. wRC is a good way of looking at someones performance, but (like RC) it is cumulative; think Runs, HRs and RBIs. This is fine for evaluating a season (like who had the best season in an MVP type of consideration) or whether someone's career is HOF worthy (both cummulative questions; for the record I do prefer WAR over wRC to answer those, since it includes fielding, among other reasons); however it does not answer the question of who performed the best for the time he was on the field (and maybe play him more, or call him "up", if necessary.) So we moved from a Gremin to a 'cuda (Yes, I like 'cudas too, especially the Hemi version, but they are not without faults) Enter wRC+ to the equation. wRC+ is a lot like OPS+. It is based on wRC (runs created with the bat and on the bases, independent of league and park,) but it normalized to 100 (denoting league average, like OPS+,) and furthermore it is a rate metric (think UZR/120 vs UZR) so you can look at chunks of performance, moving plate appearance variations (sample size) aside. A good writeup in basic terms about wRC+ is found here: This interesting article from Denver Post (an enlightened mainstream newspaper), uses wRC+ to argue the greatness of Carlos Gonzalez. Here is a real life field test of the effectiveness of cumulative measures like wRC (and WAR) compared to rate stats, like wRC+. Work with me: Let's rewind to the Twins' last good season (2010) and ask the question: who was the best Twins' player on the field (for the time he played, assuming that it was significant; I like the 200 PA mark as a cut-off point) and try to find an objective quantitative measure to support your argument. "Ribies" and ball sounds and the like are not allowed. Here are the top 6 in wRC, a cumulative measure, with Plate Appearances (and OPS for reference) in parenthesis, in descending order. Joe Mauer 93 (584, .871) Delmon Young 87 (613, .826) Michael Cuddyer 82 (675, .753) Justin Morneau 75 (348, 1.055) Denard Span 73 (705, .679) Jim Thome 71 (340, 1.039) So basically, the cummulative stat, because of the disparity of sample size favors an average player (Cuddyer) and a below average player (Span) because they had twice as many PAs as Morneau and Thome; the "longevity" effect in HOF discussions. Let's look at the best wRC+ with a 200 PA minimum (to filter players like Luke Hughes and Carl Pavano who make the list but had less than 10 PAs) : Justin Morneau 184 Jim Thome 178 Joe Mauer 136 Delmon Young 120 (Danny Valencia 118) Michael Cuddyer 104 . . . (4 players) Denard Span 88 This is what wRC+ does. And this was the season that every single Twins' fan was saying what that season would have been, "if" Morneau did not hit his head. I hope this little example illustrates the value of wRC+ vs things like wRC and WAR. After the long but necessary introduction, back to the original subject, Miquel Sano. If trying to find objective measures that evaluate performance on the field is difficult, finding objective quantitative measures that can estimate future performance, used to discuss who is the best prospect or to create prospect "lists" is borderline impossible (like trying to create a vehicle that is using air for fuel and emits water for exhaust.) But we can dream and play. Earlier this year, during the off-season, I looked at potential future performance of the starting pitchers in the Twins' organization using objective quantitative measures. I will repeat the exercise this coming off-season looking at the position players and the whole slew of pitchers and not only starters. I will be using wRC+ as the basis of that endeavor, based on the discussion above. In addition, age and level of play will also be major factors. But for this piece here, before it turns into War and Peace, let's focus on Miguel Sano's performance this season in a quantitative way and putting it in perspective: Miguel Sano in 243 PAs in A+ (average league age for hitters is 23) at age 20 had a 201 wRC+. In 190 PAs in AA(average league age for hitters is 24.5) at age 20 he is having a 158 wRC+. His AA numbers are in flex and we can discuss more after the season is over, but his A+ number are final. To put that 201 wRC+ in perspective: - It is the highest in the minors this season (second highest is Chris Colabello with 197 in Rochester, who is well in his prime and older than the average AAA player) - It has been achieved by only 5 major leaguers in the past 30 years (mininum 200 PAs): Miguel Cabrera, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas; and Cabrera's is this season, so it is not final. For the fun of it, and the perspective of Sano's dominance, here is a list of all the MLB leaders in wRC+ (and some close to the leaders) with career highs indicated for the last 30 seasons: 2013: Miguel Cabrera, 210, in progress 2012: Mike Trout & Miguel Cabrera tied, 166 2011: Jose Bautista, 180 (career high) 2010: Josh Hamilton, 175 (career high) 2009: Albert Pujols, 180 ; Joe Mauer, 170 (career high) 2008: Albert Pujols, 184 (career high) 2007: David Ortiz & Alex Rodriguez tied, 175 (career high for both) 2006: Travis Hafner, 176 (career high) 2005: Alex Rodriguez, 174 2004: Barry Bonds, 233 (Todd Helton, 166, career high) 2003: Barry Bonds, 212 (Albert Pujols, 184) 2002: Barry Bonds, 244 (Jim Thome 189, Manny Ramirez 185); all three career high 2001: Barry Bonds, 235 (Jason Giambi 193, Sammy Sosa 186; career high for both); 2000: Manny Ramirez, 181 1999: Manny Ramirez, 172 (Mark McGwire, 168) 1998: Mark McGwire, 205 (career high) 1997: Mike Piazza, 183, career high (Frank Thomas, 179, Larry Walker 177, career high) 1996: Mark McGwire, 190 (Garry Sheffield 185, career high) 1995: Edgar Martinez, 182 (career high) 1994: Frank Thomas & Jeff Bagwell, 205 (Albert Belle 186); all three career high 1993: Barry Bonds, 193 1992: Barry Bonds, 198 1991: Frank Thomas, 179 (Chili Davis, 139) 1990: Rickey Henderson, 190 (career high) 1989: Kevin Mitchell, 184 (career high) 1988: Jose Canseco, 169 (career high) 1987: Jack Clark 176, Wade Boggs 171; both career high (Kent Hrbek, 134) 1986: Don Mattingly 160 (career high) 1985: Pedro Guerrero 181 (George Brett 168); both career high 1984: Mike Schmidt 154 (career high) 1983: Wade Boggs 155 And here are the wRC+ career highs and career averages for selected Twins' hitters Harmon Killebrew, high: 176, 1967; career average: 142 Tony Oliva, high: 154, 1971; career average: 129 Rod Carew, high: 175, 1977; career average: 132 Kent Hrbek: high: 146, 1988 career average: 126 Kirby Puckett: high: 150, 1988 career average: 122 Dave Winfield: high: 161, 1975; career average: 128 Paul Molitor: high: 145 1991; career average: 122 Joe Mauer: high: 170, 2009; career average: 133 Justin Morneau: high: 184, 2010; career average: 118 Sano's career worst wRC+ is 146 last season in Beloit. As you can see, his wRC+ numbers this season, in combination with his age, his level of play and the average age in that level, are totally out of the stratosphere. How about Byron Buxton? Buxton is only 7 months younger than Sano, and has been playing at a full level below Sano. So the age/level combination is very similar (but still on Sano's favor). Here are Buxton numbers: in 321 PAs in A (average league age for hitters is 21.5) at age 19 had a 173 wRC+. In 174 PAs in A+ at age 19 (average league age for hitters is 23) he is having a 129 wRC+. For comparison's sake, the Angels' Mike Trout, at the same age (19), at the same league (Midwest), at the same team (Cedar Rapids) had an identical 173 wRC+. Objectively, Byron Buxton, looks like he is the prospect Mike Trout was and had a great season in Cedar Rapids (and this is great news for the Twins), but Sano had a monumental season in Fort Meyers. Better than Morneau's 2010 with the Twins. I just cannot see how objectively anyone can justify ranking Buxton higher than Sano, or not rank Sano as the number one prospect in baseball this season; unless it is the sound the ball makes when it meets his bat (or something) Sano is poised to be a centerpiece in the majors for years to come. Fans will enjoy seeing his #PowerBananas for a long while. I just hope that they are all with him in a Twins' uniform... http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8257/8607105428_fcbd66e42a_z.jpg

This. Plus another simple practical reason: Several 15 year olds will be 16 within that 10 month period and can sign then, but cannot sign now...

True, but it is before Calvin. His dad/uncle Clark came into the Senators as a part time owner, full time manager in 1912. By 1915 the influx of Cubans to the club started (The Twins/Senators are the first franchise to get into Latin America, btw; another part of the club's history that is disregarded by the current owners.) After Castro all bets were off in Cuba...

Torii Hunter is a bad comparable to Buxton's ceiling. Try Ricky Henderson for size... Sano's ceiling is higher than Mike Schmidt. Let the kid play and he can break Killebrew's records. That said, here are 2 words to land us all back in reality: Bo Jackson

I am happy for Ramirez. He is younger than Mastroianni (and 4 years younger than Clete). Even though not a prospect (he is 27) he is entering his prime and can play all 3 OF positions. Plus he is a RHB with some pop (not many of those around in the Twins' OF - Willingham is a DH.) I think that he might stick around for a while...

Another little anecdote about Carroll from his first Spring Training with the Twins: Once in a while when the team is traveling some veterans stay back and play with the minor league teams. A couple years ago in such an occasion Carroll and Nishioka were on the same AAA team in a scrimmage against the AA team on one of the side fields (Casilla was with the double A team if that matters.) Carroll and Nishioka were the double play combination. After each inning they were sitting next to each other on the bench and Carroll was explaining positioning and footwork to Nishioka. He did this for the duration of the game and when they came out and when the AA team was fielding, Carroll was pointing things out to him continuously. And we are talking about 2 guys who (on paper) were fighting for the same job. Total class act, I hope he comes back as a coach...

Good stuff, other than this tidbit: You need a reference point if you are going to toss defensive numbers, and here is one: The "amazing, incredible, 'elite'" defensive catcher Drew Butera has allowed 15 passed balls in 183 games (one in every 12.2 games) behind the plate in MLB, and 74 in 476 games in the minors (one every 6.4 games) Pinto's rate for the period you indicate is one passed ball per 12.7 games. If Butera is "elite", Pinto is super-elite. The truth is some place in the middle. Pinto is not as bad a defensive catcher as it has been alleged, and Butera is not as good. I have seen Pinto catch is several games and he has been fine. As far as his power numbers go, I expect more. He has been filling up big time and he is more muscular than Arcia at this point. And a lot of the increase of his numbers as he is moving up the system has to do with the fact that he is not 155 lbs as he was as a 17 year old, but close to 230...

Agree about Knoblauch and Chili. Funny enough the 1991 platoon at 3B was an upgrade over Gaetti in 1990: .274/.334/.390 101 OPS+ for 1991 from 3B vs. .235/.279/.377 84 OPS+ Another major difference was the institution of Shane Mack at RF (who took over John Moses in late 1990). In 1990 RF production was: .243/.307/.356 78 OPS+ vs. .328/.386/.521 138 OPS+ in 1991. Small changes but made a difference. Similarly, on paper the 2010 team was not that different from the 2011 team

Technically, they can buy one of his options, thus adding him to the 25 man roster and then move him to the 60-day DL. no need to do that anyways... The Twins need to showcase Willingham, Morneau, Carroll, Doumit (good luck now) and a few of the pitchers and see if they can trade them sooner than later...

This. Get the kid away from Jeff Smith and the Mitchell Report cheat hitting coach and let him help Rochester win. Then invite him to ST as a non-roster invitee and see whether he will win a job.

Whether Florimon meets, does not meet or exceeds expectations, is a very subjective matter (as are the individual expectations). The most important question is whether Florimon is a starting SS for a competitor and a World Series winner. The answer to that question is that likely not. Can he be that? Maybe, because his bat showed some flashes, but I think that it is not likely. Unless the Twins are asking these questions about every player in the club, and adjust their team accordingly, they will not be competitive or win. Period.