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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    little because they are so small samples. The curve is actually calculated based on differences in performance in pairs of ages (eg 20/21, 21/22, 22/23 etc.) so it is normalized for individual players who might be outliers one way or another.
  2. Thrylos
    Here is something from fangraphs, that actually is trying to answer the pitcher aging question (but the methodology is flawed.) If you take it at face value, you'd think that the peak is at 19-20 The problem is with size bias in that most of the 19 and 20 year olds who made the majors were excellent, but they are few of them. So someone needs to do regressions and plot career peaks and/or normalized data (like % of league; because the many sucky 28 year olds drive down the age group, compared to the few sucky 19 and 20 year olds), not the sum/average of performance of players of a particular age. The math is tough, so it is kinda of a hard problem...
  3. Thrylos
    Have you seen Pinto and Romero play? Or the above statement is a "gut feeling"? I cannot see any way that a middle infielder (Escobar) can take playing time from a catcher/DH. He will take time away from Doug Bernier (or is Bernier now a "better player"?) I don't know about "you", but the Twins cannot win this year. They are 19 games behind Detroit with 32 games remaining and there are 2 other teams between them. The only thing they can do is to prepare for the future...
  4. Thrylos
    Proof? Here is an in dept study: Part 1 and Part 2. And here is a graph from the same source: http://www.hardballtimes.com/images/uploads/image003.png And if you like another metric, here is this table from here (short and sweet): Here’s the total WAR of ALL nonpitchers by age, of players born since Ruth’s birth year (1895): Age WAR 20 18 21 168 22 470 23 1,120 24 1,723 25 2,383 26 2,875 27 3,206 <-- 28 3,114 29 3,042 30 2,683 31 2,453 32 2,054 33 1,580 34 1,179 35 889 36 563 37 423 38 224 39 142 40 87 41 18 42 18 43 12 hope that the point is made (with data, not "gut feelings") Very select players decline slower, but 31-32 is the downside for all pretty much... Pitchers are slightly different beasts. Both of those are for position players. Why someone would sign declining players? Some teams do not do, other than in supporting roles. Ask Tampa. What people do, does not always make sense And does not make sense to keep players in the minors during their early peak years to gain service time for late peak and decline years...
  5. Thrylos
    Kubel is 31 and has not really played much this season. Some players need regular play... And 31 is the beginning of the end for most players anyways...
  6. Thrylos
    From that list I see: one impact reliever (Perkins) two very lucky relievers (with BABIPs in the .1xxs at some point) who are returning to earth (Fien and Thielbar) and one hit and miss guy (Burton) Duensing is better than Thielbar. Thielbar is a mirage. Soft tossing lefties are a dime a dozen. Duensing can hit 94-95...
  7. Thrylos
    Willingham is under contract ($7ish M) for 2014...
  8. Thrylos
    I do not see many parallels in the most basic stuff: The Cubs had a wholesale rebuilding effort of their front office, their scouting, player development, minor league and major league staff. The Twins still have folks around who have been with the Twins since Pohlad (the dad) bought the team. So, frankly, the Twins' "rebuilding" is "rearranging". And, yes, on paper their farm system is better, thanks to Bill Smith's international signings and to high picks due to suckage. But the key is, can the ones who managing and leading the club, deal with it and bring a World Championship? Because they have not done it in the past... And, for truth's sake a reality should be mentioned: the Twins have had a worse record with Ryan as the GM in each of his stints, than with both of his predecessors... Not the guy one should trust to turn a team around (for better), if one looks at things objectively...
  9. Thrylos
    The guy who got is a pretty nice prospect and there is word (leaked on twitter by the Pirates' side) that the PTBNL is a pretty decent prospect. Add the fact that Buck is a very expensive back up, and the Mets did pretty well. As a matter of fact, I would not mind it the Twins get the equivalent for Willingham but in pitching prospects...
  10. Thrylos
    Kind of a different discussion, but I'd rather see the Twins pay the $ for starting pitching than for an aging CF with injury issues. Ellsbury has the potential of being a combination of Grandenson & Sizemore...
  11. Thrylos
    Happy to say that Arcia never had Vavra as his hitting coach.
  12. Thrylos
    Hard to tell what is going to happen in the minors yet. The majors have to get settled. One of the things I was hopping the Twins will do is to get rid of Jeff Smith who is pretty much universally unliked (by players, FO and fans) in New Britain, but instead they are trotting him to the AFL. Hard to tell. One thing: I doubt Molitor will want to do anything more that what he does. He is close to 60.
  13. Thrylos
    This is great. Awesome. Really. Other than the title. Hicks is the Twins' center fielder, optioned to the Red Wings. Not "the Red Wings' center fielder". The Red Wings have no players. The Twins do and the decide which minor league teams they go.
  14. Thrylos
    This does not mean that the voters do not think it is junk mail....
  15. Thrylos
    The Twins have a nice dilemma here as far as Rosario and Sano are concerned: They can be promoted to AAA and make Rochester's post-season as well... And this is not considered bad taste...
  16. Thrylos
    The Twins just do not have many non-Latin American position player prospects, so hard to pick position players for the AFL. Here is what I think: Alex Meyer Pat Dean (likely one starter) Matt Koch James Beresford Kyle Knudson/Dan Rohlfing (maybe) AJ Achter Matt Hauser Zach Jones
  17. Thrylos
    I have this feeling that Mauer will replace Morneau at first base next season. Then Pinto and Herrmann will be the 2 primary catchers with Herrmann playing occasionally other positions.
  18. Thrylos
    First of all, hiring a steroid cheater as a coach is a major disgrace on Ryan. Allen should go. Period. There are a few things in play for Smith: a. Plenty of his former players, currently in the Twins' organization and not, have been loud and clear about how much they dislike him as a coach b. Lots of those "Twins' lifers" were Rantz' boys. Now that he has finally retired and there is a new Director of minor leagues, I think that this season was their evaluation season. I do expect several changes in the minors this off-season... c. Ask around (off the record) the NB front office about what they think about Smith; you will probably get some really enlightening opinions...
  19. Thrylos
    The biggest reason this team needs a managerial change (and needed since 2005ish) is that the players are not mad when they are losing and are unemotional robots and if they are not, they get banished by the manager and/or get traded (Lohse, Garza, Gomez, et al. ). If you do not hate losing you will not win. Period. And this is something that the manager should install in a team. From Cuddyer's comments after the loss to game 163 at the White Sox "Oh well, we will get them next season" to Correia's comments six days ago after the Twins lost "I am very pleased with my start, I did everything right", there are plenty of examples of this... The Twins need a winning attitude. Losers should have no place in this team. And if you are ok with losing, you are loser (by definition.)
  20. Thrylos
    As far as Hicks goes: a. His coaches, managers, GM and minor league directors have done him a disservice by letting him switch hit. Period. His OPS+ as a RHB in the majors is 92, which is higher than Doumit, Plouffe etc. b. He is 23. Span and Hunter were busts at 23 as well. Give him some time. c. Hicks is one of the nicest and most humble ball players that you can ever meet. He works hard and he keeps his mouth shut. A lot like Buxton as a matter of fact. But he is a really quiet guy, so do not expect quotes from him. He is not Mike Cuddyer...
  21. Thrylos
    Interesting stuff, but I think that this chart is a proof that RBIs do not matter From all of those players listed who hit 100+ RBI only 2 (Hrbek and Ortiz) were All Stars. Another handful (Koskie, Kubel, Walker) were MLB regulars for more than 5 years, few more were role players (Larkin, Laudner, Teufel, Sorrento, Davidson) and the majority even never made the majors or did for a cup of coffee. Just this list is proof that 100+ RBI says zip for a players' future. Slugging percentage, wRC+ and OPS+ (outside the PCL) on the other hand...
  22. Thrylos
    A September call up means that a player can double his income. A month of an MLB paycheck is about a season's worth of a AAA paycheck and more for a AA. And this can mean a lot to the players. So it is a form of a reward...
  23. Thrylos
    No. I am talking after Santana. Garza and Santana departed the same season, and the Twins regarded the other 6 ready and good. That was part of the reason Garza was traded; think Span & Revere trades because of perceived depth at CF.
  24. Thrylos
    That's kind of a chicken and egg situation... But, if you remember at some point, just after Santana departed, the Twins had 6 young starters who were supposed to be the pillar who will take this team to the next level. Baker, Blackburn, Bonser, Liriano, Slowey, Perkins. But, (not only because of Anderson, the GM, minor league director and the manager are responsible as well,) the only thing they got 6 years afterwards (i.e. in these guys' prime years) is a good closer. Unacceptable player development. Someone should be accountable for this, and also for the fact that the Twins have been on the tail of the league for pitching the last 3 seasons.
  25. Thrylos
    Liriano is having a Cy Young season Dickie had a Cy Young season Lohse is having his third excellent season in a row Deduno barely is a fifth starter in a competitive team (no matter what he is in the Twins) Fien is a AAAA player who is coming back to earth after his .1xx BABIP the first half. Apples and pineapples as far as impact goes...
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