Thrylos

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2067-One-pitcher-the-Minnesota-Twins-should-sell-high&

Let's agree to disagree about the BABIP, because it will be a long discussion but here are a couple of interesting BABIP splits for Fien: In low leverage situations: BABIP .156 In medium leverage situations: BABIP .250 In high leverage situations: BABIP .316

Originally posted at The Tenth Inning Stretch ------- It is a weekend series with the Yankees away from the All Star break, and it is obvious that the 2013 version of the Minnesota Twins is not much better than the 2012, so understandable, they should be "sellers" in the fast approaching trading deadline. Several names of players, like Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, even Trevor Plouffe and Glen Perkins have been mentioned as potential "trade bait". I strongly believe that non-contending teams with plenty of faults should rebuild by trading players at the last year of their contracts and trade veterans or players in their late 20s at their peak of their value ("selling high".) From the aforementioned only Justin Morneau (last contract season) and Glen Perkins (value peak, plus friendly contract) fit the bill. I would like to examine whether there other potential players who the Twins should think about trading based on peak of their value. I have to mention that the Twins have been extremely bad about trading players at the peak of their value, and instead they sell low or give away. For every Bobby Kielty, AJ Pierzynski and Denard Span (3 examples of players sold high,) there is an army of Delmon Young, Fransisco Liriano, Jose Mijares, Kevin Slowey, Alex Burnett, Joe Nathan, Nick Blackburn, Mike Cuddyer, Carl Pavano etc who just rode into the sunset. Selling high and selling impeding free agents before the hit the market is how good teams, like the Tampa Bay Rays, keep themselves competitive year after year. So the Twins should trade Justin Morneau and Glen Perkins (but not give them away.) Anyone else who according to this formula should be a candidate? Enter Casey Fien. Casey Fien will turn 30 this October and arguably he is on the peak value for his career. He has pitched in 42 games (36.2 innings), struck out 40 and walked 7 (2 intentionally), has a 3.19 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 5.7 K/BB and a miniscule 0.791 WHIP. And last season, he became a fixture in the Twins' pen in the second half appearing in 35 games (36.2 innings), struck out 32 and walked 9 (4 intentionally), with a tiny 2.06 ERA, and a 0.971 WHIP. Why trade him? At first glance he appears as a pitcher who can be Glen Perkins' replacement as a closer potentially. Why not go that route? Here are the reasons: He has been pitching over his head. This season his BABIP is .207; last season it was .229. This is not sustainable and expect a Diamond-like regression once balls start to go through. His numbers are better than his stuff. He is mainly a fastball and cutter/slider pitcher with an occasional slurve he uses as a change of pace. His fastball is in the low nineties and the cutter in the high eighties. This season he lost 2-3 mph of velocity in all of his offerings. I do not want to speculate the reason. RH middle relievers are the easiest players to replace. The Twins have a plethora of 6th starter/AAAA starters. It is very possible that conversion to the pen will have a Glen Perkins' like effect for them. So I would add another name for the Twins to shop, that of (the mighty) Casey Fien. Next: a few more players the Twins should consider trading

Originally posted at The Tenth Inning Stretch ------- It is a weekend series with the Yankees away from the All Star break, and it is obvious that the 2013 version of the Minnesota Twins is not much better than the 2012, so understandable, they should be "sellers" in the fast approaching trading deadline. Several names of players, like Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, even Trevor Plouffe and Glen Perkins have been mentioned as potential "trade bait". I strongly believe that non-contending teams with plenty of faults should rebuild by trading players at the last year of their contracts and trade veterans or players in their late 20s at their peak of their value ("selling high".) From the aforementioned only Justin Morneau (last contract season) and Glen Perkins (value peak, plus friendly contract) fit the bill. I would like to examine whether there other potential players who the Twins should think about trading based on peak of their value. I have to mention that the Twins have been extremely bad about trading players at the peak of their value, and instead they sell low or give away. For every Bobby Kielty, AJ Pierzynski and Denard Span (3 examples of players sold high,) there is an army of Delmon Young, Fransisco Liriano, Jose Mijares, Kevin Slowey, Alex Burnett, Joe Nathan, Nick Blackburn, Mike Cuddyer, Carl Pavano etc who just rode into the sunset. Selling high and selling impeding free agents before the hit the market is how good teams, like the Tampa Bay Rays, keep themselves competitive year after year. So the Twins should trade Justin Morneau and Glen Perkins (but not give them away.) Anyone else who according to this formula should be a candidate? Enter Casey Fien. Casey Fien will turn 30 this October and arguably he is on the peak value for his career. He has pitched in 42 games (36.2 innings), struck out 40 and walked 7 (2 intentionally), has a 3.19 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 5.7 K/BB and a miniscule 0.791 WHIP. And last season, he became a fixture in the Twins' pen in the second half appearing in 35 games (36.2 innings), struck out 32 and walked 9 (4 intentionally), with a tiny 2.06 ERA, and a 0.971 WHIP. Why trade him? At first glance he appears as a pitcher who can be Glen Perkins' replacement as a closer potentially. Why not go that route? Here are the reasons: He has been pitching over his head. This season his BABIP is .207; last season it was .229. This is not sustainable and expect a Diamond-like regression once balls start to go through. His numbers are better than his stuff. He is mainly a fastball and cutter/slider pitcher with an occasional slurve he uses as a change of pace. His fastball is in the low nineties and the cutter in the high eighties. This season he lost 2-3 mph of velocity in all of his offerings. I do not want to speculate the reason. RH middle relievers are the easiest players to replace. The Twins have a plethora of 6th starter/AAAA starters. It is very possible that conversion to the pen will have a Glen Perkins' like effect for them. So I would add another name for the Twins to shop, that of (the mighty) Casey Fien. Next: a few more players the Twins should consider trading

what exactly was Smith's "massive mess"? Smith inherited a 79-83 team with Santana and Hunter from Ryan and went 88-75, 87-76 and 94-68 the next 3 seasons. Hardly a mess and much less "massive". Then 2011 happen. Differences between the 2010 and 2011 teams? Casilla and Nishioka vs Hudson and Hardy in the lineup Duensing vs Slowey in the rotation Swarzak and Hoey and Nathan vs Guerrier and Crain and Rauch in the pen Lots of these (like the "need for more speed") were initiated by the field staff (Gardy). All the pitching changes were signed off by the field staff (Gardy & Andy). And health issues happened. Smith deserves as much blame as Gardy and his staff for 2011. Ryan did not improve in 2012 and in 2013. If Smith needed to get fired for 2011, so did Gardy & co, and Ryan should be fired for 2012 and 2013. Enough with the revisionist history with Smith... if anything, year by year, his clubs were better than Ryan's clubs.

Interesting number about the Padres: 52. They have the same losses as the Twins do this season... I do not see them being buyers. They will be sellers like the Twins.

I think that all these scenaria are extremely optimistic. Re: Perkins: He is a good closer. And potentially he would not be a closer in a contending team that already has one. Last time someone paid that much for a closer, were the Twins for Capps. I just do not see it. I can see him bringing back max a lower level higher ranked prospect and maybe an intriguing guy who needs redirection. You cannot trade MLB-ready mid-rotation potential SPs for a closer. Morneau: I think that the Twins should stay away and not re-sign him, unless he is willing to do it for Thome money and accept Thome duty. They have enough first basemen in the organization to fill in until Mauer makes the transition. That said, they should trade him by all means, but adding another soft-tossing, contact-inducing, back of the rotation/AAAA/long relief guy who is "ready" is the least the Twins need. The have about 8 of these guys right now. They got to go low minors/high risk/ high return again, because they need the high return. I would even take a younger toolsie guy with some flaws. I am all for the Twins to go out and get another catcher (esp. if that means that Butera would be gone), but it looks like they think they are set in the minors, since they just officially listing Rohlfing as an OF. Pinto, Herrmann (and Koch) would be fine as long as Mauer is playing behind the plate with some regularity. 2-3 from now is a different story and that need they might need to address, depending how the aforementioned 3 develop. I see no reason to trade Plouffe and they would be selling low at this point. Trading Doumit on the other hand makes a ton of sense and he would bring something back. The one thing that the Twins got to do, is to try to package "prospects" in some of these to get better returns. I am just not convinced that they could not get more for Benson, Robertson, Manship, Slama, Solarte etc if they included them in trades when their value was high. Pavano for Pino and Rauch for Malvey are somewhat of examples here, but that was a different GM. So, do you add someone like Kennys Vargas or Tyler Jones in a trade to really get better prospects out there? That is the question. Not players like Sano or Buxton, but players who do have value, but can go either way and there is a lot of risk associated (like being old for their league etc)

Indeed, because if that does not happen, the change will be fairly ineffective, since the same organizational philosophy will apply. Gardy going is a good step, but a cancer patient does not need a face lift but rather some pretty massive surgery...

While Target Field does The fact that his numbers are pretty close to his 2010 numbers (including the HR/9; other than his WHIP being a little less, due to the AL to NL change) is an astute observation. Why? Could be lots of reasons, including getting healthy from an undisclosed ailment, getting more confident and being able to pitch without thinking so much, getting a change of scenery and a fresh beginning, getting more effective coaching and (last but not least) entering his career prime. This is his age 29 season...

I'd throw Casey Fien's name there as well. He has been pitching over his head and will never have as much value. As far as what the Twins can get in return for some of these guys, I'd wait to see who the MLB will suspend. If there are names of 3-4 pitchers in contending teams, Pelfrey's and Correia's value will increase. Get a couple of 1B out of the picture and Morneau will actually have some value (and he leads the team in RBIs ; hope that there is another organization out there that values RBIs... )

2 words why I really dislike the "floor" comparables when talking about prospects: Bo Jackson Sano's floor (and everyone's) is Bo Jackson. But Bo Jackson not making it to the majors before the injury.... I'd rather talk about comparables and potential... And if someone had to twist my arm for names, I'd say Harmon Killebrew for Sano and Rickey Henderson for Buxton. But that is ceiling and potential and they have to be around for 20 more years to reach it...

Thoughts? in random order: - I think that Sano should be rated higher than Buxton. Period. FSL is the league that you have to prove yourself and I am still waiting for Buxton to do it, while Sano killed it. - I saw DJ Baxendale (Sano's teammate now) make a total fool of Buxton last spring in 3 pitches (and everyone else as well; this is more of a Baxendale comment, who is back btw and healthy). - SSS. This is for the above, as well as Sano's work in Hardware City this season. - I really do not buy what BA has to say about rankings. I suspect that Harmon Killebrew (arguably the best position player to wear a Twins/Senators uniform) would not have made that list because he was lacking a couple of tools (D and Speed). Also, the best pitcher to wear a Twins/Senators uniform (Walter Johnson) would probably not have made their list because he had only one pitch (fastball) so he would be doomed to a middle reliever ceiling... In other words, I really take these with a huge grain of salt, unless they are accompanied with actual performance data. Both Sano and Buxton have been performing great this season. It will be great to see them challenged further, follow their development and hope they make it...

Pohlad wanted to contract the club (for cash). This is common knowledge. Ryan went along with the scheme; he did not resign/retire, did he? And as the head of baseball operations for the Twins, he was working to contract the club as his boss asked him to do. Maybe there was a bonus for him from the contraction cash to make up for the lack of a job, who knows? Actively or passively, he was there.

In any SUCCESSFUL business, it is a great idea. When a business is ailing big time and needs redirection, it is a horrible idea no matter the business type...

The Twins stuck with TK because Pohlad (and TR) were working to contract the team so it made no sense to change the manager of a franchise that was going away. Once contraction did not happen, and Pohlad (and TR) needed a plan B, TK went away...

He will go the TK way. Retire and be around each spring training as a guest instructor. If they were to extend him, they would have done it by now. Ticket sales have been declining each year the past 3 years for a good reason. At some point they got to do something to get rear ends on the seats, so they have to pretend they care about the record of the team and hold someone(s) accountable...

Grading Terry Ryan: 2012 : 4th from the bottom in baseball : D- 2013 : 5-10th from the bottom in baseball: D+ Blaming 2011 and 2012 on Jerry and Stelly and keeping Gardy/Andy/Vavry/Scotty around: F

Totally agreed Same people who gave up on Gomez ...

This is ridiculous. I bet Colabello/Parmelee can have the same performance the next couple years for $19M less...

3-4 weeks too late

That's not fair by any means... Even with the small sample size and the 0 for 4 yesterday, his OPS is .843 . Just wish that every Twins' player "struggled" like that...

Fein is 29. Just months younger than Perkins...

If the Twins can get anything in real prospect terms for Fien, Thielbar, Roenicke and other MiLB FAs or waiver wire players they signed, a. it would be a miracle and b. they should close the deal yesterday, before they pull a Burton...

Cliff Lee is not someone I want with the Twins, is someone I want the Twins to beat. And he is way on the decline. I had a chance to see most of the Phillies prospects in their AA and AAA teams and the 2 pitchers I like, are Jonathan Pettibone (who has been rushed but has done fine against high minor league competition) and Tyler Cloyd (who is having a way off season, btw, so he might be bait.) I'd take Pettibone & Cloyd instead of May and Worley any day, but that is in the past. The sentiment around here about what the Philies are going to do, is pretty schizophrenic. Could be buyers, could be sellers. And more and more, it looks like they will not do much for a few reasons, the biggest of which is not baseball-related: Their TV rights are up for renewal this off-season and there is growing front office talk that they don't want to do anything that will give them lower returns on that contract. No blowing the team out, in other words. They are on the record saying that unless they are blown away for the impeding free agents Young and Utley, they will keep them and make them qualifying 1 year offers this off-season. Halladay and Howard are untradeable, Rollins is a fan favorite who is not going away. Lee's and Papelbone's names have been tossed around by local writers along with comments from Amaro saying that they are willing to eat some $ to get better returns. They are 4 games under 500 and a 10-game run, will put them six over and in the thick of the wild card (at least) race. But they are old and (have been playing) ugly...