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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    I think that you are making my point here are a bunch of synonyms for the term. As you can see, decent, is one, and that is the one I would use to describe the Twins in the 00s. Or not quite good enough, if you prefer. I would be gladly to sub those 2 terms, instead of mediocre. Beating below average AL Central components (but getting embarrassed by AL East) during the regular season and having a 6-21 post-season record is not "good" any way you cut it. It is better than a lot of teams (it is decent), but not quite good enough, so it is mediocre. Of course mediocre is preferable than horrible (see: 94-00 & 2011-) but by no means good. And expectations might be different, which is another part of my premise: That fans are ok with the team being mediocre, and unless that changes, they will not be good.
  2. Thrylos
    ok. There are 5 tools. Only 2 of them (other than speed on the bases that he does not really have) are dealing with hitting: Power and Hitting for average/contact. (the other 2 tools are arm strength and fielding) (btw, and it is important, because people are throwing in it left and right when they are talking about Sano & tools: Strikeouts or plate selectivity is not a tool. It is something that can be learned allegedly, thus it is not one of the 5 tools. So K-rate & Co does not matter according to scouts. If you don't agree, don't blame me, blame them) So I suspect your concern is whether he can hit for average. Based on what he has done so far, I'd say that his contact tool is probably the second highest in the organization (behind Polanco.) I am willing to bet, that unless an accident/injury happens, Sano will have a prime pretty much higher (I'd use OPS as a measurement to be subjective) than anyone in a Twins' uniform. Only 5 times Twins' players broke the 1.000 OPS barrier: Killebrew twice, Mauer and Carew once (full time) and Thome once (part time.) Sano will better that.
  3. Thrylos
    I agree with this, but it not the past 3+ years only. It has been since the strike and the subsequent contraction era awfulness in the late 90s made the subsequent mediocre play in a weak division in the 00s look "good", and average or above average players, like Radke, Hunter, Koskie, Nathan, Cuddyer, Kubel, Dozier et al were treated as stars. This team had 4 stars in their primes since the strike: J Santana, J. Mauer, F Liriano & J Morneau. The primes of the last 2 were shorter... I think that bad baseball is better than no baseball, and, also, unless the fans are able to realize bad/mediocre/good and care enough to demand good, as long as bad/mediocre pays the bills and makes money, good will not happen.
  4. Thrylos
    The question one needs to ask is whether they are starting shortstops in a championship team. The Twins have not had a decent team in 4 seasons, including in 2014. Are they part of the solution? Who knows? I agree, you keep them until better prospects come up. However, if every single current player is not part of the problem, how come the Twins are having a problem?
  5. Thrylos
    I think that his majors' OPS in sporadic duty before this season does not really matter. Same with his OPS in the VSL 6 seasons ago. I think that, like Dozier, turned the corner when he got some consistent playing time. D. Santana's minors OPS (.708) is in the same ballpark. And I have seen enough of Santana play shortstop the past 4-5 seasons in the minors to think that he is the one better suited as a bench player. Would Escobar be the SS of the future? Not sure, but If I were to bet, I would bet on Polanco, Vielma and Gordon, in that order... I think that Polanco (who has probably the best contact tool of any prospect in the organization) should be ready to start for the Twins around 2016, which makes this a 2015 conversation. But, indeed, a good problem to have for the Twins.
  6. Thrylos
    I just don't see the Twins having Perkins as the only lefty in the 2015 pen. Are you keeping Kris Johnson, Logan Darnell over Duensing? I wouldn't. Sano, Meyer, Achter, Rosario. That's about it. I'd keep Duensing from your discard list. That's 12 openings plus 2 minus one (Pelfrey) minus four (the above) = 9. Still plenty of spots to go around, build the team and protect a few more. But not futility players like Beresford
  7. Thrylos
    The Zone part is debatable Each umpire has his own zone and if a particular ump's zone is different than an idealized PitchF/X or such zone, some OOZ swings, are actually adjustments for that particular zone. So really not out of that umpires' zone. not that simple.
  8. Thrylos
    Too early to tell.
  9. Thrylos
    Here is the formula for FIP: (13HR+3BB-2K)/IP HRs, BBs, Ks, IPs all happened, correct? So FIP is based on things that happened (facts) as is ERA (ER/IP)*9 They are both factual measurements. They just measure different facts and have different uses.
  10. Thrylos
    here is the actual quote from Mike Berardino's update at the Dispatch:
  11. Thrylos
    WAR and xFIP measure what happen as well, because they are based on factual cumulative and rate statistics. Not figments of someone's imagination. Just a tad more complicated than dividing a couple cumulative measures and multiplying by 100.
  12. Thrylos
    Not sure about what the Front Office might think, but for the record: They did make offers to both (Hunter & Cuddyer) and they decided to not accept the Twins' offer and go elsewhere for more $. As far as their value (and that of AJ/Dougie/Koskie et al) goes, it is really simple in my book: The Twins won exactly the same number of post-season series with them as without them. Not.A.Big.Loss.
  13. Thrylos
    Nah. More like FIPsie and DIPsie
  14. Thrylos
    I think that regardless how horrible exactly 2014 might end up being, the big issue is that 2014 is the fourth horrible season in a row. And a lesson learned in 2014: - Spending money will not make much difference in the bottom line for this team. Because that they did. To be added with the lessons learned from previous seasons: - Replacing Bill Smith was not the solution of this team's woes (2012-2014) - Jerry, Stelly & the chairs the coaches were sitting on were not the reason of this team's woes (2013-2014) - The individuals heading the Twins' medical and training team were not the reason of this team's woes (2013-2014) Eager to see what will happen after this season and whether the Twins will think that point solutions here or there, or throwing $ to the problem, might not be exactly what is needed to right this ship...
  15. Thrylos
    There are a lot of advanced statistical measurements out there and most of them have been built for a particular reason, but a whole bunch of them are used incorrectly on many occasions. Chief's links about WAR are a great reading. There are 2 main categories of stats: Rate stats & Cumulative stats. Think Batting Average & ERA vs Home Runs and Strikeouts. WAR is a cumulative stat and best used in retrospect (and best in comparison with contemporaries, even-though it was meant to be era neutral) to provide some light for discussions like whether someone belongs to the Hall of Fame, who should be the MVP, who was the best player overall for a particular team etc. And about as much predictive value as HRs, RBIs, & Es. As a cumulative stat, if a player played 62 games (like Santana) it is very likely that his WAR will be less that someone who played 117 games (like Dozier.) And comparing WARs in this manner, does not make much sense, because that is not what the measurement was deviced to do... Same with comparisons (even though are really really enticing) between position players and pitchers based of WAR. Pitcher WAR and Position player WAR are based on totally different individual components so they are not equivalent. It is like having a discussion about what car is the most powerful and comparing HorsePower numbers with Torque numbers.
  16. Thrylos
    THIS For me the Twins' getting Thome was like the Vikings getting Favre. Career .314/.415/.635 with 61 HRs against the Twins (including the one that cost them a post-season) does not really endear him to me...
  17. Thrylos
    To put perspective into his season, you have to mention that he has returned from shoulder surgery (thus why he is in GCL and not in E-town) which turned up really successful. Lots of people wrote him off as a prospect when he was going to have shoulder surgery.
  18. Thrylos
    Here. Not that it does not mean much. Chicken or egg situation. Pinto used to be catching Deduno exclusively, thus the increase in walks compared to Fryer and Suzuki, which is the main difference among them. Not sure that it is significant either...
  19. Thrylos
    At this point I trust Pino more than Deduno. Same age (30.)
  20. Thrylos
    Good luck guys. Sounds like a fun endeavor. Much more passion in that town for the Vikings than the Twins, and if the moderation of that site is the same as this site, just the moderators will be left...
  21. Thrylos
    Totally happy with Gibson and the way he has been pitching this season and the way he has been handling himself this season, especially as far as coming back after bad starts. Even though ERA & WHIP are close, the comparison with Hughes just is not there. Hughes has a 2.73 FIP and Gibson's is about a point higher. BABIP is the culprit here: Gibsons' is .273 & Hughes' .346. I think that Gibson has gained a no-questions asked spot in the 2015 rotation this season.
  22. Thrylos
    here is some interesting info: Sounds like the ball was to the right fielder (who caught it) Not sure whether he yelled for it or not. And Buxton was overzealous and kinda caused this himself...
  23. Thrylos
    This is really good stuff I remember first seeing Arteaga as a 20-21 year old kid playing minor league ball (he was a starter) for my (then) local ballclub (the AA Eastern League Ravens) in the mid 90s. Really young baby face. Minor league SPs had to hit then and he really sucked. But he did have a good curve. I think he had some injury issues at some point and then he disappeared. Small world is the one of the minor leagues.
  24. Thrylos
    The history of Chad Allen, the Twins' baseball player (even thought a great attempt to sketch it here) will be incomplete (and one-sided) without saying that Chad Allen was mentioned in the Mitchell report, and that (likely) his one single above average season was a mirage. People can make up their minds based on their personal beliefs, but my position is that having PED users teach the Twins' minor leaguers, is not an approach that I would personally applaud. I'd love to hear what he would have to say if he was asked some questions on the subject...
  25. Thrylos
    So... Will that lineup compete with the loaded Tigers or the Royals (who are ahead of the Tigers this season) in 2015? if so, Will that lineup beat the Yankees in the first postseason series? If the answer in either of them is 'no', I think that the GM has to go to the drawing board again. 70 and 75 wins (even though might make some fans happy for some reason) are probably worse for the future of the club than 60 or 65 wins and playing people who might have a future, while trimming some of the parts of the problems of the last 4 seasons... just a thought.
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