Thrylos
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Everything posted by Thrylos
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bypassing Kris Johnson and Jorge Polanco was a surprise to me
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5 month Report Card for 2013's Bottom 14 teams
Thrylos replied to jokin's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Good stuff. I would suggest that you overlay the increase in budget vs that so one can see the ROI clearly -
Love this line: .241/.286/.367 Kurt Suzuki after he was extended. Regressing to his career normal. Figured then, figures now.
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Let's see what those moves are: 1. Take the SS that has made the Twins have the second highest WAR in the position and bench him in favor of a guy who projects to be a bench guy for a competing team 2. Trade the guy with the second highest fWAR in the team 3. Call up Hicks (instead of playing SS's and Clete's second coming at CF) 4. That was retracted and was just there to be there so it does not count. So one out of 3 ain't bad (for Souhan)
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precaution. He could not get loose. Good move for everyone concerned. I hope the Twins shut him down for the rest of the season.
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And looks like the Twins are letting him go.
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ok. Let's substitute Garza for the worst starting pitcher for each of the 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons. Does that make the Twins a winning team any of those seasons? Are these Twins teams just a third starter in a good team (because that is what Garza has become pretty much) away from competing or even away from respectability? I don't think so.
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The premise here is that if the Twins had Garza, they would not need to trade for Pavano or sign Correia. Garza would have been "the horse" and would probably made Pavano $.
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I think that there are many possible root causes (and internet and access and tivos likely are part of it) but I think that the biggest problem is that fans are not paying attention to the game much any more. Ballpark visits are as much about the food and drink as they are about the game. People are talking about "ballpark experience" in this century. Teams are talking about modern stadiums (like those will help them win games.) The game is pretty much the same as it always was. The fans' attention span and dedication is not (unlike with football for some reason.)
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including the Ortiz and Milone comparison?
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I was answering your question about where that team would have been in 2011-2014 if Garza and Ramos were here. You framed the discussion not me
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I do not use it when I am discussing how good a pitcher is, because it is not appropriate in that context. This is a discussion about record, which is all about wins and losses, and I cannot find a better one to use other than W-Ls. Want to use WAR comparisons instead? Can do that, and it will say the same thing Here: 2011: Pavano 2, Garza 2.8 (Diff: +1) 2012: Pavano -0.8, Garza 1.2 (Diff: +2) 2013: Correia 1.6, Garza 1.4 (Diff: 0) 2014: Correia 0.2, Garza 1 (Diff: +1) So: 97, 94, 95, 90
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Dorsey: Miracle Add 2 100mph Pitchers
Thrylos replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
If there is a stadium radar gun to hit 100, that is Hammond's (seen Duensing hit 97 there.) Unfortunately they are playing at Jet Blue right now... -
I think that it was a Berardino story.
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If Bill Smith did not trade Garza and Ramos, how different is 2010? Capps and Young were major reasons that the Twins won the division in 2010. When Ramos was traded he was blocked by Mauer. People are arguing that Pinto should be traded in favor of Suzuki, doesn't this argument make the Ramos trade a no-brainer? Garza was going to be gone as a free agent and was not going to be around to help in 2011-4. And, for the sake of argument, lets say that you had Ramos & Garza from 2011-2014. Would Ramos start instead of Mauer? No. So you would replace Suzuki with Ramos in 2014. That's a wash. Maybe a few PAs off Butera and some DHs? 1-2 wins better each season from 2011-2013? (So we are looking at 98, 95, 95) If you had Garza, you would not have Pavano in 2011 and 2012, Correia in 2013 and 2014. Fair assessment? Here are comparisons: 2011: Pavano 9-13, Garza 10-10 2012: Pavano 2-5, Garza 5-7 2013: Correia 9-14, Garza 10-6 2014: Correia 7-14, Garza 7-7 So 1 more win in 2011, 3 in 2012, 1 in 2013 and none in 2014. So total with both: 97 losses in 2011 92 in 2012 94 in 2013 and 91 (projected) in 2014. and missing the post-season in 2010 That's the math of those 2 trades.
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Totally agree. And if the replacement is the known devil heir apparent (Antony,) I'd rather have Ryan. One little addition (and some food for thought) : Top down does not begin with Ryan. Top down begins with St. Peter. Maybe the overall issue here is that he is not a baseball man. Most of the other teams have baseball people in the top of their hierarchy. Maybe that's what the Twins needs to succeed.
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Even though I totally agree with that statement by Ryan, I have hard time reconciling it with Ryan's previous statement saying (paraphrasing) : "If I am back in 2015, Gardy will be back". Those are 2 apparently conflicting statements and just about a week apart. I don't doubt his sincerity. The one way these statements do not conflict is if Ryan is not back in 2015...
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Only One Spot to Address for 2015?
Thrylos replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I hope that Sano starts at 3B next season, btw... And, this season looks like about 91-92 losses. Will this lineup get them to 70 losses? If not, things need to be re-written. And, yes, lots of changes need to be made to compete (and lots of them non-player) but just a few changes maybe to go from horrible to bad. Depends what the goal is here... -
Santana has a negative UZR, Defensive runs saved, and plus/minus runs both as CF and SS this season (SSS notwithstanding.) Not sure where those numbers posted are from. Suzuki is at -4 in DRS too. Here are the Twins Defensive Runs Saved in 2014 in ascending order. Not that I care much about the metric, URZ is better. Heck, Plouffe leads the Twins with +6 DRS in 2014...
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In 2012, the Twins had a team OPS+ of 98 and 6 players with OPS+ higher than 100. And they lost 96 (ERA+ 86) We know what happened the next couple seasons. Just facts. Not analysis. Got to do better than average to win.
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OPS+ of 100 is average, unless fangraphs and the guy who created OPS+ (here is the definition by Wikipidia) are also wrong. Also there are stated what is considered good and excellent OPS+
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Kinda hate to say this, but this injury has more implications on the Rochester post-season run than on the Twins...
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100 OPS (i.e. league average) should be the baseline, and not the goal. Because if you have 100 OPS+ and 100 ERA+, you will likely have a .500 record. A better analysis is to look at both offensive and defensive measures in each position, look how the Twins are against the league, take into consideration injuries, prospects and contracts etc and go from there to further analyse things like contact rates, K rates, WPA, speed etc and to figure out who might be part of the solution and who part of the problem. One thing for sure: 100 team OPS+ is not enough, unless the ERA+ is in the 120s or so
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Not quite. I'd take an occasional appearance to the World Series Frankly... being there in both '87 & '91 and in what followed after the strike and the contraction conversation and the resurrection in the 00s, the biggest disappointment was the loss in the second game of the ALCS in the Dome to the Angels in 2002. The Twins just never lost in the post-season at home. That just did not happen (well, the lost in the previous series to OAK, but the swept them away so that was more of a back of the mind thing.) And then they went to Disneyland and went belly up pretty much. And the same every other post season that followed the last decade. Hard to point it out, but this team just does not have the attitude that the teams of the MacPhail era had, which mainly was a. hating losing and b. hating losing at home even more. And this shows. And this could pretty much be the difference between a good and a mediocre team. And, of course, I'd love to see them win it all (again.) But I'd love to see perspective and sense in them before that and a hate of losing. I am probably one of the few people that this rubbed the wrong way, but I really found the way that this club celebrated and commemorated Gardenhire's personal 1000th win among the fourth miserable team season in a row, a tad tacky, disconcerting and embarrassing. But it is just me likely. And it is not winning World Series.... It is just wanting to win, hating losing and not being happy and complacent and celebrating losing.
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Meyer is one of those guys who is really special because he has a whole bunch of physical talent and the smarts to know his limitations. This season I watched him pitch live in 3 starts in addition to film. What amazes me (and makes him really special) is not the 96 and 97 mph FB and the slider you hear about. This sounds a lot like Franky and that is special on its own merit, but Meyer has a mid 70s curve and a low 80s change (that's his new pitch) that mixes in successfully. And he is just starting to command those puppies. And when we are talking 20-25 mph diffs in commanded pitches and a good mix, we are really talking unhittable. He is special and the Twins have not had a pitcher like him. Getting healthy is the big thing here and letting it go.
