I don't think your caveat is reasonable--"with a better farm system"; there's too many unknowns, both in terms of the health of your system (sure you can put in a scouting/development process that produces good results, but that process needs to adapt, which is just really hard to do) and the health of the player you are signing. Sure, if we could sign an Machado and get everything else right, we'd be golden. But my sense is you try to plan in the error rate of things going wrong when you make a signing of this sort, which I'm not sure the Twins can sustain. Prospects and stars sustain career injuries, the game changes in a way your front office didn't anticipate, your FO hit on some but not at all of your first round picks, on and on.