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old nurse

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Everything posted by old nurse

  1. old nurse
    Ryan has to rebuild more than the Twins. He needs to have winning teams at the minor league as well. If Johnson works out for the major league team, great. If he ends up AAAA filler, that is a good thing, too. Look at the filler that was brought in last couple of years. I hope he is an upgrade from that.
  2. old nurse
    Ruiz was a slow pudgy guy who was only going to get slower as he aged. Colabello would appear to have put up better numbers in the minors than Ruiz. You would be correct until Thyrlos can come up with a better example.
  3. old nurse
    The run scores formula for the extra strike assumes that the extra strike is equally divided throughout the game. This has been shown to be not the case in different studies. The higher likelyhood of getting the extra strike comes from when you are the home team and ahead by a margin, sorry I can't remember the number. The likelyhood goes down of getting the exra strike with men on base. The more men, the less the chance. For there to be a 30% less chance, the other 70% factor would have to be the same. It won't be. The staff is not that static. To answer Wookie's question, I don't think with the staff of the 2013 Twins Molina would have had a dramatic impact.
  4. old nurse
    Is there a more recent numbrt than Turkenkopfs for the correlation between pitch framing and runs allowed? In his 2008 article he found the correlation to be .30. That would be weak at best for the effect of pitch framing.
  5. old nurse
    There is the past. It is what it is. Mistakes from the past should be used to learn from. The last few years the Twins have shown themselves to be better in the talent evaluation department. This is reflected in the prospects and their rankings. Time will tell if it they develop into major league players. More so the later picks like Rosario, Walker, Eades, and Gonslaves than the high picks like Buxton and Stewart. The last few trades will take time to see how the players develop to see if they were good or bad trades. Smith made bad trades. He is not the GM anymore. The process on how Smith made trades is no longer relevant to today.
  6. old nurse
    So you would have had the Twins draft Wacha rather than Buxton? The Angels were so sold on Trout's ability they drafted somebody named Grichuck before they drafted him. The talent evaluation is getting better as they keep adding better prospects. Their current farm system is rated better than the Cards or the Rays. Feel free to have doubts about their abilities, but the trend is showing better evaluations.
  7. old nurse
    Dealing with the media. No big deal. Watching games with the eye on roster construction. Part of his role has been evaluation of the major and minor league talent. Rather being the person doing the input, he is having the final say. I don't know how you would groom him any better than the trust Ryan may have had in his evaluations. The extent of his ability in evaluations and the trust in his judgement might be evidenced by they had him as acting GM rather than Krivisky.
  8. old nurse
    Antony once said he was involved in trades. See any old thread about trades under Smith. So the question is how much smarter is he in 2014 than in 2008-2011 under Smith.
  9. old nurse
    I don't think Krivisky did that well in Cinci. As people have seen, not every assistant should move up.
  10. old nurse
    The answer to your question is to know what Smith learned about the game of baseball versus what Antony has. I think it would be fair to say that Anothy should have learned something from Smith in terms of what not to do. You do not necessarily have to be a scout to understand how the game is played, or what makes a good player.
  11. old nurse
    I think he would have looked at the games plaid column, as that what was claimed. At this point does it really matter?
  12. old nurse
    Public pressure must work http://www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-analytics-blog/2014/2/27/umpires-calling-balls-and-strikes-better-than-ever-before.html
  13. old nurse
    Sometimes the light's all shinin' on me; Other times I can barely see. Lately it occurs to me What a long, strange trip it's been.
  14. old nurse
    I would believe it is likely that the Twins would think they could coach a player into being better. I once read that the best number of net calls per game was about 2.5. Maybe on a game by game basis the Twins feel the framing effect is negligble In pitch framing there are data showing differences for each pitcher, umpire, home vs away, inning, pitch type and location, ball and strike count, as well as catcher. There have been no studies that I could find that say who the batter is matters, ie are there more close pitches thrown/called on a Joey Votto versus David Blarney or a N.L. pitcher. There are enough AB where there is a pitch that is called a ball that was a strike, a strike that was a ball, and every pitch correct that there should be a set of data for the OPS for each condition. You could do it for each pitcher. What would the data show?
  15. old nurse
    Those reasoning would then lead me to believe there are influences other than the catcher's pitch framing contributing to the call
  16. old nurse
    The factors that go into hitting a pitched ball are far different than catching a ball near the plate. The ability to frame a pitch is supposedly not pitcher dependent. The numbers should then show a consistency for a full time catcher. They do not for the positive full time catchers. 44.2, 38.2, less than 32.9, less than 28.3 per 7000 pitches. Lucroy's numbers are not consistent. The range in runs rer season would have more to do with games caught, which varies. Going by pitchers per 70000 makes it so you are comparing against the same.
  17. old nurse
    In the world I don't recall ever seeing a workplace that did not have some people more equal than others. The path may have been made more difficult, but not blocked nor hamstrung.
  18. old nurse
    3/4 traded by Smith
  19. old nurse
    When was the last 160 pound power hitter?
  20. old nurse
    If Santana walks more rather than striking out or hitting weakly his batting average would go up. I think Gardenhire on this exactly knows what goes into the game from the statement.
  21. old nurse
    If pitch framing is a repeatable skill then why are the numbers so variable for the high value catchers from year to year?
  22. old nurse
    Turkenkopf did a study and found there was a difference by inning and home team as to when and who got the benefit of the call. There were some other anomalies he found. He kept the sample size to a half season to keep the study for entertainment value only. For the pitch frame enthusiasts, what is the correlation factor between team ERA and close called pitches?
  23. old nurse
    I think if it is anywhere but Boston Drew is holding out for more than 2 years on a contract or close to QO money. QO money is more than people want to pay him. Boras has faith in himself to get one or the other. In a couple weeks people can have the I told you so thread on Drew one way or the other. People are correct in that Drew would get the Twins a couple more wins over Florimon. I don't see how anyone couldn't see that for this year. Drew versus Santana would be a different argument. I have no clue how good he could be. Don't know how quickly Goodrum or Polanco would be either, or how fast they could move up. I don't think the Twins would want to sign Drew for more than 2 years as they do have hopes for prospects. A reasonable contract for the money isn't the obstacle, I think the years are. With rare exceptions the Twins tend to stick with the good players they sign. I would add, they wouldn't sign Drew if they did not think they were getting a good player. Stopgap players are usually what many here call dumpster diving.
  24. old nurse
    Be a good judge of talent and understand how it fits in with what you have. That would be the the one true way. Bill Smith IMO did not understand talent or how things fit together. Any team that is successful in baseball has a core of talent that they have developed.
  25. old nurse
    Are you outright dismissing the limitations of pitch f/x ? Correct more often is hardly a solution
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