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old nurse

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Everything posted by old nurse

  1. old nurse
    http://l2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/GlJnycE.m5iyYQtrejpGWw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3NfbGVnbztmaT1maWxsO2g9NjQzO3B5b2ZmPTA7cT03NTt3PTk2MA--/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/Sports/ap/201603061341492816334
  2. old nurse
    What there are no metrics for. The ability to learn. What happens when you mature, or when you will mature. They can spot the regression candidates, but not the actual regression. They really can't measure what they progression will be.
  3. old nurse
    Until they make it in big league any player's floor is bust
  4. old nurse
    In terms of selling off top prospects. There was a stretch of stench there for awhile. Considering that outside of Gibson, there were not many of the top prospects making it to the majors as impact players then by all means trade them away. 2010, Hicks was the top Twins prospect. Might have been worth more than a back up catcher. . Never mind. Same guy traded the top catching prospect for a poor closer.
  5. old nurse
    Does the 91 team win if Hrbek's swipe at Gant is caught and Gant is called safe?
  6. old nurse
    There goal in the mid 2000's would be to be the best team they can be. I cannot be so smug as to think that adding one player would have made a difference. Maybe because they had a few star players in Morneau, Mauer, Santana and Hunter. They had some very good players as well in Cuddy Kubel, Gomez and , Radke Nathan was also a part of those teams Ifs and buts aside, it always seemed as though only one of the hitters came through. Santana would pitch great, but never perfect. They had the viable pieces. They did not come through. Good teams with a track record of doing well do not always make it. , see the Rays, See all the Atlanta teams that were great and managed one WS title.
  7. old nurse
    Yup, that is why Duensing and Swarzak were in the bullpen and starts were given to Albers, Pedro Hernandez and the like were being given starts, Duensing and Swarzak were better pitchers than Correa. Pitchers that year that did not work out one or two year contracts: Meyer, Marcum, Jurrgens, Lannan, Baker, Shawn Burnett, Roberto Hernandez, Blanton and Haren. Karstens had a half season and has not pitched since. Correa was signed to fill a slot, not carry the team. Pitch every 5 days
  8. old nurse
    When did May ever have a season with a k/9 over 9 besides the minors?
  9. old nurse
    There are 15 other teams that have not won since the Twins did. I guess winning the WS isn't all that easy
  10. old nurse
    One of the reasons that breaks the system is the cash flow. It is pertinent to the discussion.
  11. old nurse
    In a pack full of mutt pitchers he was above average. As an alternative to Duensing, Swarzak, Blackburn, et al it would be an improvement.
  12. old nurse
    8 points on the plot of the analysis graph. There are more teams than that. Also they used ratings rather than total households in the cable network. Cable penetration is poor for the Twins market. I am not sure how broad the FSN coverage is, and how many systems would move it to premium as it gets more expensive. One of the reasons I thought the Twins failed at their own sports network was the inability to get on basic plans. Those backwards Twins trying something out of the bax. When looking at the contract, how did it compare to what other teams were earning versus the market size.
  13. old nurse
    Pelfrey has enough upside that the Tigers gave him 16 million. His upside was that of a number 3 starter.
  14. old nurse
    More upside, less than a 25% chance of working except in hindsight. You end up with a rotation dependent on PJ Walters. Hughes signing later was for upside. As was somewhat Ervin. Nolasco was at best a hope for a below 4 ERA with starts going through the 6th (Your floor signing,)
  15. old nurse
    Only if you signed a new manager and pitching coach.
  16. old nurse
    Neither did Monkeypaws. The 2012-2014 Twins could have spent 20 million a year on free agents more than they did and the end product would still be a losing team. You would have to cherry pick the names. In than game of if, rather than Correa they had signed Blanton, they would have been worse off. Hindsight would make it easy to find the right signings. Russel Martin was a steal for Pittsburgh. If you have a hole or two, you can fill in with free agency. to build upon the success you have. Near the bottom, you are not going to build success through free agency
  17. old nurse
    Of the 13 or so pitchers that signed one year contracts with new teams after 2012 Lirano and Feldman were really worked out.
  18. old nurse
    10 from MMurphy, 20 from Arcia, 5 from Nunez, 26 from Vargas after he comes up because Mauer can't see straight
  19. old nurse
    Would not argue against that they have entertainment value and give people something to talk about. That pretty much sums up what projections do.
  20. old nurse
    If at the end of the year, as you say, you have to figure out why they were off they have no reliability. From a statistical projection they are useless.
  21. old nurse
    Curiosity here. I wonder why with no reliability and no validity do people with a purported understanding of statistics bother with these projections
  22. old nurse
    Roenecke only pitched for the Twins in 2013, Deduno was done by the middle of 14. Swarzak was long relief, Duensing was lefty, a role Tonkin can't fill. None of Tonkin's win probability numbers look very good. On the other hand he was a late round draft pick. C+ and on the fringe of prospect ratings. Tonkin really has exceeded expectations. The problem is effectiveness. The Twins covet effective at what you do. Tonkin has not been that.
  23. old nurse
    A career era+ of 85 and a FIP over 4 will get other people chances. Also never mind that when some of your list were pitching, Tonkin had just progressed to AA
  24. old nurse
    The comment was a jab at Parker. The actual benefit of pitch framing is debatable as there was one study showing that it was not consistently called by inning nor pitch count and by score of the game. Somebody with too much time and no life could replicate that study again.
  25. old nurse
    I read once that BABIP normalizes out for a pitcher in about 1000 innings. Hopefully your bad pitcher never gets to that. On the other hand, a league average pitcher for BABIP can have terrible results, Kevin Correa. or be very good like Shields. Porcello got a 4/82 contract with a career BABIP of .317
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