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old nurse

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Everything posted by old nurse

  1. old nurse
    Negativity sells. Look at any thread that starts with a rip on something versus a positive spin one. The negativity goes on and on, the positive threads draw few responses. Management and established players are the first target. Players that are fringe are the third target.
  2. old nurse
    The thought that the Twins would sign 3 players who would cost a draft choice makes your article one of wishful thinking rather than one of analysis That would mean the Twins are signing 3 of the top dozen players. Last year they averaged 18 million a season. The Twins are not going to have a 130 million payroll. Mauer and Hughes contracts are not going anywhere. That leaves Santana's 13 million contract. For 5 million more you are not going to gain much.
  3. old nurse
    If you are going to probably give up a first round pick it should be for a four year player. A bat first player 20/m player is not the solution. The money would be better spent elsewhere. A closer and a set up pitcher. Starter and something else.
  4. old nurse
    Pass on a 4 year contract for Santana.
  5. old nurse
    The process of using one tiny bit of information to make a decision is a flawed one. You are correct on the leverage. I should have been using win expectancy numbers.
  6. old nurse
    Statistics from those who spent a lot of time working on them say it was a low leverage situation. You are free do to the work that shows them wrong. In the Tigers game the percentages paid off because of an inconsistent bullpen. Multi factor analysis. The Tigers might not do the same in another situation. You can point out a specific instance but not the general trends. As the next day pointed out, switching from Boshers did not provide a better result. Molitor did as you said. No change in the results.
  7. old nurse
    There is a 13 man bullpen because there are so many starting pitchers not even pitching 6 innings.
  8. old nurse
    Then there is the other factors that seems to escape people. Roster size and the number of games a pitcher can pitch in. Single factor analysis is poor analysis.
  9. old nurse
    A 19% chance of winning is ow leverage.
  10. old nurse
    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/li/ Edit: you can find Fangraphs' description of LI at this link.
  11. old nurse
    Believe what you want. Learn to look it up.
  12. old nurse
    For the chance for Cleveland to win the game.
  13. old nurse
    Although every situation is a leveraged situation, 0.33 is low leverage
  14. old nurse
    The leverage index when Boshered entered was 0.33. Low leverage.
  15. old nurse
    If you repeatedly have a pitcher warmed up just in case you will blow through your pullpen every day because it is not common practice to repeatedly warm up a pitcher. . No win scenarios for the manager.
  16. old nurse
    The people here can set up all of the no win scenarios they want on Molitor. At time when behind Molitor uses his lower leverage relievers about 20 pitches each sort of like a bullpen session. The complainers here have yet to post who was warmed up in the bullpen in the event that Boshers did not get 1 of 2 lefthand hitters out.
  17. old nurse
    Yup I knew that my statement was based on information after the fact. as are the complaints about the pitching.
  18. old nurse
    I am not sure what Molitor's core principles are. Perhaps you can PM me a reliable source for that position. Boshers may be older but at 81 IP in major league ball I wouldn't call him a veteran. In pitching mostly low leverage situation I would think they are still trying to develop him.
  19. old nurse
    If you do not think anyone on this thread had no problems I would ask that you reread the thread.
  20. old nurse
    There in no hperbole on my part, the other guy is the one who demanded perfection. I merely pointed out what was not obvious. There is nothing saying that Busenits would have fared any different than Boshers. Jay Bruce is hitting well, Carlos Santana, At 20 pitches Busenitz would still be able to pitch the next day when needed (Gibson) Had Busenitz let in a run the complaints would be along the lines of Molitor leaving him out there too long. Either way the point is moot. The Twins were batting feebly 12 K, no bb, 6 0 fers
  21. old nurse
    In a league that the hitters average less than .700 ops, 805 is good. If qualified, it would be the 25th best. In all of A+ ball there are 120 out of the 792 with an ab younger than 22. 180 22 years old. Rooker is not old for the league.
  22. old nurse
    How many relievers have an ERA of 0? Every manager is worthless because no reliever has an ERA of 0
  23. old nurse
    Boshers did not surrender a lead, moot point.
  24. old nurse
    Cleveland and Arizona next week. Not as bad as Houston/Dodgers but not like facing the White Sox for a week. A week of angst followed by a week of hope.
  25. old nurse
    Any signings that year would still be 18 year olds in the rookie leagues. That would not impact the upper minors. It would be better to blame the 13-14 drafts for not producing anything quite yeat. Besides Hildenberger
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