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old nurse

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Everything posted by old nurse

  1. old nurse
    So the only way to invalidate an opinion is to challenge somebody if they would bet money? Before the July trade deadline they were 38-30 against the teams not playoff bound. They were done with 3 of the best teams in baseball that they fared 3-14 against. 5-8 against the Indians. Given how they had played over the course of the season given the teams they had to play the final months of the season should be no surprise. It is what they were capable of.
  2. old nurse
    You can suppose that. I certainly did not. I would advise looking at how they build their models.
  3. old nurse
    Oakland had a replacement for Alonso. It also had a far more difficult first half of the schedule than last half. The models may or may not account for who tou play or how you have played that team in the past.
  4. old nurse
    Weird how I only commented on this year and get blasted for past years. This management group has been only at here for this year. The comment I responded to was about this year. So please come up what would have worked for this year,
  5. old nurse
    With 21 games against 3 of the worse teams in baseball on the remaining schedule and only 12 games better teams on July 31 anybody who bothered to read a schedule could see that there was an excellent chance for a playoff birth.
  6. old nurse
    Add what at what cost? A trade like the Jepson trade a couple of years back? Sonny Gray? Do you suppose the Twins could have offered a pile of non prospects to entice what the Yankees offered in ceiling?
  7. old nurse
    There was only one other time besides this season, that there was only two teams that had 90 plus losses. That season featured a 100 loss team. There were no really bad teams to pad the win totals/
  8. old nurse
    Game 4, game 5?
  9. old nurse
    Some of the teams that are low in sacrifice bunts are higher in GIDP, ie 2 outs instead of 1. Tricky business this is
  10. old nurse
    About 5 years ago the success rate stated in an article was 80% for sacrifices. No idea how the current data would be at. Since it looks like you are implying they are bad at it, and do it a lot, perhaps you would like to find the statistics that back it?
  11. old nurse
    When Falvey and Molitor have their rumored season ending conversation the first words Molitor should say is starting pitchers. He has 2. Cleveland have 4 performing well, and a couple not doing poorly
  12. old nurse
    Perhaps as a future article you can go over the different matrices for playing for one run, two runs and scoring in bunches.
  13. old nurse
    Some people put a general equation to a specific situation and think they are being scientific. Some people make a generalization based out of dislikes. Over the three year period that Molitor has been manager he has sacrificed 80 times. American League average over that time is 70. No great departure there. The Indians lead with 101. Falvey worked for the Indians. It might be well possible the Indians did a little more in depth research on that aspect of the game than whatever it is the posters here have done.
  14. old nurse
    I guess when I said nice job Rob people wold understand that it was Rob Antony. He had a month after the season to talk with Molitor about the season they were involved in. The time to talk about the season and digest it is immediately after the season. Falvey was hired on October 2, 2016. He could take the job officially until after the series, when the Indians season was done. In the three months before the season started I would think it unimaginable that they did not have conversations about the past season. Falvey's understanding of the Twins was from afar. His understanding of the Twins is going to come from that and the retained employees. His concern would not be of the season past but the upcoming.
  15. old nurse
    Frandy Torres the closer would also be high on the list
  16. old nurse
    Some guy did some number crunching in an article quite a few years ago. Actually runner on first ,no outs, a sacrifice increases your chances of scoring exactly one run. Molitor is doing a pretty good job in one run games, as someone else on this board called the Twins lucky in that category. Perhaps Moliror might be smarter than some here give him credit for.
  17. old nurse
    If I recall correctly there was an acting GM with only a slim chance of retaining the job. There might have been a long sit down. So far this season it has produced 15 more wins. Good job, Rob.
  18. old nurse
    How are the Twins going to enforce a weight limit on a minimum wage worker?
  19. old nurse
    The view outside of the ropes is different than what you see inside the ropes. A bit further out you see the bigger picture. Inside the ropes you can find more detail. The argument that being let inside the ropes makes you somehow less objective, more homerish, in the writing is blown when it is pointed out that Souhan is unfair to players with injuries. The article is older, critical (unfairly) yet Souhan still moves freely inside the ropes. The first piece by Souhan will not win any awards for writing. To make it twist proof would require more column inches than any newspaper would allow. I do not know the newspaper process to know if the editor shortened the piece. The retort piece would have been a little more palatable had he just called out Gleeman and the twitter people leaving comments. The second piece in my opinion should not have made it past an editor unless the editor wanted the attention for the paper. If Gleeman did indeed say that Souhan called Sano fat, Gleeman should be ripped as a journalist for the twisting. That will not be done by the writers outside the velvet ropes. That objectivity appears lost.
  20. old nurse
    3 ER in 6 gives you a chance when your hitters come through. That was the problem with the Twins' playoff teams. The starters could get you that level. Your 3-4 starters need to give you that level also. That ability is really hit and miss right now, with the "hit" rate is below the Mendoza line. Santana could beat the Yankees. Before he could pitch again the playoffs might be over. Hitting seems to be carrying the team right now. That might not fare so well against a Houston team that appears to have pitchers with good seasons.
  21. old nurse
    80% You need to feel like your starter gives you a chance to win against the best teams in the playoffs
  22. old nurse
    Pat Mahomes, Vic Abury Pete Filson, Jim Deshailes, PJ Walters, and Ricky Nolasco are among the many that are thankful for short memories.
  23. old nurse
    Kyle Gibson benefits from the sad fact that there is a dearth of pitching. The just under 3m a year contract is not money sucking. What he would get in arbitration is the question. Salazar for the Indians did not get much of a raise with way better numbers last year. Of the top of my head I can't think of a comparable to Gibson, hence Salazar's arb negotiation would lead me to believe Gibson will not get much of a raise. Much to the chagrin of many here, Gibson will actually be cheap enough to keep. Cheap enough to get a prospect for if Mejia, Mays and a prospect emerge during the season next year. Colon could also be back if he does not get to 244 and retires. Of course if they think Slegers can fill the role that Gibson plays, Gibson is gone. That role would be sinkerball pitcher that keeps you in a game and eats innings. On too many nights, Gibson had not done that. In a universe where there are only 84 pitchers who have pitched 120 major league innings this year Gibson would fit the criteria for second best starter as only Santana has pitched that many innings. By bwar, not even in the rotation
  24. old nurse
    You stated that Santana could cost a third round draft pick. The only way that happens is if Santana gets a qualifying offer.That would be likely. How many players get qualifying offers? Last year thee were about a dozen. If the Twins are giving up only the third round pick for Santana they either tanked so bad the rest of this season that they dropped past 10 teams and signed to QO free agents, or signed 3. The AAV of the contracts handed out to QO players was 18 million. IIRC the average length of contact was for 4 years. What is so hard for you to understand about that? Adding 3 contracts that would likely be closer to a 60 million a year addition is not going to happen. Yjay would be getting the payroll to the 140 million range. If Santana, and Dozier are traded, Escobar and Gibson are non tendered and Phil Hughes decides it is not worth trying to earn 26.2 million then there would be a chance. Realistically, that is not going to happen.
  25. old nurse
    The Twins have 70.4 million committed to contracts next year before any options or arbitration. That is Mauer, Santana, Hughes, Dozier, Castro and Park. Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Mejia, Buxton, Berrios, Polanco, Rodgers, Duffy, Hildenberger, Busenitz, Orourke and Vargas are pre arb and get about 550,000. That is 19 players, a few not likely to be with the club, Grossman, May, Adrianza, Pressly, Gibson, Escobar, Tonkin and Gimmenz are the Arb eligible. Depending on the initial discussions, play of some in September half of those will be back. Unless they decide to keep both Escobar and Gibson that is a likely payroll around 80 million. The team is not going to go nuts with long term contracts. The non return on the Nolasco and Hughes contracts. The history of declining return on the Mauer and Morneau extensions as well as the Hughes, Suzuki, Pelfrey extensions should make the Pohlads fairly shy of long term deals for older players. The team will sign one. Signing 3 as the OP thinks is likely out of the question. Twins Revenue is not as Forbes says. From 2011 to last year the team lost a million paid attendance, They have decreased revenue per fan from $53 to 43. Despite this 70 million drop in revenue, the Twins gained in estimated revenue by 40 million. Something does not add up.
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