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DaveW

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Everything posted by DaveW

  1. DaveW
    Are you sure about that? The overall inaction of the winter meetings thus far and the huge holes that remain (front end rotation guy, bullpen, OF) seem to suggest the opposite, in addition I have read from multiple posters that the Twins window isn't until 2017 or later anyways.
  2. DaveW
    Again the main thing is it comes down to upside and cost. The Twins could have gotten Bethancourt without giving up Hicks (A guy they actually could very much use in 2016) Bethancourt also by every measure has a higher upside then Murphy (just look at the propsect rankings and scouting reports) You say the "Twins fixed" the problem at catcher, but it looks like a half ass fix to me since Suzuki will still be getting at least half of the playing time. I would much rather go the route of bringing in Bethancourt and seeing if he can reach his potential as a very good catcher, instead of trading an asset like Hicks for a guy that nearly every scouting report on the planet has pegged as a back up catcher who someday could be "average"
  3. DaveW
    The "Dave rails on every TR move" meme is tired and not true. I have said repeatably how I like the Park signing (assuming they can move Plouffe), I liked the Ervin Santana signing, the original Hughes deal etc. Bethancourt A. Has more upside then both Hicks and Murphy, he was a top 100 prospect going into 2015. B. He put up a .840 OPS in AAA last year, that is more important to me then his OPS as a 16 and 17 year old in the minors, putting up his "overall" numbers is an apples to oranges comparison since he was 16,17,18 in the minors while the other two guys were not. Hicks was drafted out of college for petes sake and his first year in the minors he was 21! Which brings up another great point, Bethancourt is still a few years younger then both guys! So: Bethancourt is a guy who cracked top 100 lists multiple times in his career, as recent as last year, Hicks and Murphy have not. He also is a few years younger then them as well. So yes, this fits right into the "upside" argument I have made.
  4. DaveW
    Yup, its a dangerous game, especially when you are talking about average-ish players like Plouffe or Norris, teams aren't going to wait around for weeks on end waiting to see if they can get the 15th best catcher or 15th best 3rd basemen etc I do think however Hicks was moved way to soon, as the OP notes, there were plenty of catchers avail via FA and the Twins are planning on trotting out suzuki as the starter (or at least 50/50 guy) anyways. Now the Twins have a huge hole in the OF to start the season (unless they want to rush Buxton, or have both Sano and Arcia in the OF opening day, which believe me, is a disaster waiting to happen)
  5. DaveW
    Agreed, Bethancourt would have been a great target. Murphy is just more of the same (mediocre player who projects to be a backup or a below average starter if everything goes right)
  6. DaveW
    Here is what I don't understand, if you really had no plans on trading Plouffe, why on earth go out and sign a DH in Park? If you don't sign Park, you can easily just slot in Sano at DH for another season. Now you truely have a quagmire as you are trying to force Sano into the OF (while also more or less getting rid of Vargas and/org Arcia as well) If they trade Plouffe, I really like the Park signing, if they keep Plouffe around, I like it quite a bit less (unless park puts up a .880 OPS of course!)
  7. DaveW
    Nick, what are your thoughts on whether or not it's time for Ryan to step down again?
  8. DaveW
    I think Santana can have a solid career but not as a top of the order bat. Mostly as a super utility (rich mans nick Punto) who can be a stop gap at SS if need be (rich mans Nick Punto)
  9. DaveW
    I'm not sure "any team" would claim him. Agreed 100% on this. Apples to Oranges comparison. Sort of like if the Nationals trade Papelbon + 8 million for some scrub, that doesn't mean Perkins would receive the same offer.
  10. DaveW
    How on earth do Vargas and Arcia have more trade value then Plouffe? Arcia was a mess last season and Vargas has AAAA written all over him.
  11. DaveW
    I wouldn't trade Rosario in the first place. I never would have traded a perfectly good CF in Hicks for a backup catcher to begin with either. I never would have forced a square peg into a round hole (Sano to the OF) to begin with either.
  12. DaveW
    If he is hitting 40 bombs a year and posting a .950 OPS I could really care less about his weight, he shouldn't be running down fly balls in the OF anyways, and especially shouldn't be forced to do it because he is "blocked" by a league average player like Plouffe.
  13. DaveW
    Having someone take at bats in the majors while they are clearly outmatched is not a wise choice. Buxton was completely over-matched last year in the bigs. Unless he shows some serious improvement against major league pitching in spring training, starting him day one is a recipe for disaster not only in his development but for the Twins ability to actually win baseball games.
  14. DaveW
    Did we learn nothing from Hicks first couple years in the big leagues? Rushing a guy up to the majors whose bat is not ready is a recipe for disaster for their development and confidence.
  15. DaveW
    So we have a guy who actually wants to continue to get better, play more baseball, work on his swing, his 3rd base defense etc in the offseason, instead of shutting him down we should be commending him for his effort. Instead, poor roster management has lead us to shutting him down so we can monitor him for a diet in order to have him be something he is not (an OF)
  16. DaveW
    It is more than likely that neither Buxton and Kepler won't be ready for the Majors until June or later. What is the plan until then? Just roll with Sano+Santana+Arcia in the OF and lose every game 10-4?
  17. DaveW
    Hopefully not for the Twins though.
  18. DaveW
    I'm not sure why this is a surprise or has ever been a surprise, league average players who are in arb years don't fetch big returns in the trade market. Plouffe isn't going to fetch some huge return, heck, Hicks, a cheap player with gold glove defense at a premium position and a TON of upside only got us a back up catcher. I'd be happy with any sort of "lottery ticket" prospect for Plouffe or any RP that is better then Fien (a low bar, I know) If Ryan was so adamant about not trading a league average player like Plouffe, that's fine, but he never should have went out and clogged up the DH spot even more. Make no mistake about it, moving the 285 pound Sano to OF is a disaster waiting to happen. If Plouffe isn't traded, Park is at DH, Mauer at first and Sano starts the season in RF? That is an a F for roster management.
  19. DaveW
    That is a great point. If he pitches like he did in 2012-2014, he easily would be able to get another 4 year deal.
  20. DaveW
    Would have been the Twins 2nd best pitcher numbers wise.
  21. DaveW
    You can hold that opinion, but he is only 34, not 40. He never was a "power pitcher" anyways, so he should be able to age better then those types anyways, he had 4 very, very productive years followed by one not as productive year but solid year anyways (make no doubt about it, a sub 4.00 ERA and 200+ IP is still productive) So either Shields had an outlier bad year, on a bad team that under-preformed all around or that Shields at 33 is toast. I think the former is the more likely scenario and you seem to content that the latter is the scenario. That ok, we can disgaree. But in terms of getting rid of Nolasco, and bringing in Shields (+39 million for 3 years or whatever) I tend to think the risk is well worth the potential reward. $13 mil a year that we would essentially owe him in this deal basically comes out to just a couple million less than what we paid Pelfrey+Stauffer last year. They can afford this "risk" all day, especially when his absolute floor still seems to be a guy who will give you 200IP, a good k rate and a sub 4.00 ERA regardless.
  22. DaveW
    Why is that the case? If they trade Milone and Plouffe (which they should do regardless) that frees up $10+ million in 2016 and even more in 2017, plenty of money to sign a Clippard, trade for a Storen or go with Rodney as a plan be.
  23. DaveW
    I think Milone should be traded for anything, anywhere regardless. Shields Santana Duffey Gibson Hughes Berrios/May waiting in the wings. That is a damn nice rotation if Shields can revert to his 2013/2014 mode (Where he was pitching in the same division) If Hughes looks shaky/injured to begin the season. DL him or start him in the pen, that opens up May's shot. If June rolls around and Berrios is pushing for a spot? Figure out a way to trade Gibson. Make no mistake, Shields instantly becomes the best pitcher the Twins have if they trade for him.
  24. DaveW
    In 2016? 95% chance on all three. In 2017-2018? 60% chance on Berrios, 75% on Duffey and May (and I like BOTH very much) Nothing stops the Twins from trading any of Gibson, Milone, Santana etc at anypoint as well.
  25. DaveW
    James Shields: 2011-2014 3.17 ERA 233IP per year! 3.49 FIP, 8.0 K 2.3 BB 1.1155 WHIP Jame Shields 2015: 3.91 ERA 201 IP NTM the Shields in 2011-2014 was in the AL and in 2014 posted great numbers across the board. Anyone who says Nolasco is better then Shields in 2016 is being very very very optimistic with no backing. Shields for Nolasco straight up? Uh, yes, 100%, all day, every day. The Padres would have to be high to consider such a deal, and Terry Ryan would have to be high to turn down such a deal!
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