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DaveW

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Everything posted by DaveW

  1. DaveW
    That is a great point. If he pitches like he did in 2012-2014, he easily would be able to get another 4 year deal.
  2. DaveW
    Would have been the Twins 2nd best pitcher numbers wise.
  3. DaveW
    You can hold that opinion, but he is only 34, not 40. He never was a "power pitcher" anyways, so he should be able to age better then those types anyways, he had 4 very, very productive years followed by one not as productive year but solid year anyways (make no doubt about it, a sub 4.00 ERA and 200+ IP is still productive) So either Shields had an outlier bad year, on a bad team that under-preformed all around or that Shields at 33 is toast. I think the former is the more likely scenario and you seem to content that the latter is the scenario. That ok, we can disgaree. But in terms of getting rid of Nolasco, and bringing in Shields (+39 million for 3 years or whatever) I tend to think the risk is well worth the potential reward. $13 mil a year that we would essentially owe him in this deal basically comes out to just a couple million less than what we paid Pelfrey+Stauffer last year. They can afford this "risk" all day, especially when his absolute floor still seems to be a guy who will give you 200IP, a good k rate and a sub 4.00 ERA regardless.
  4. DaveW
    Why is that the case? If they trade Milone and Plouffe (which they should do regardless) that frees up $10+ million in 2016 and even more in 2017, plenty of money to sign a Clippard, trade for a Storen or go with Rodney as a plan be.
  5. DaveW
    I think Milone should be traded for anything, anywhere regardless. Shields Santana Duffey Gibson Hughes Berrios/May waiting in the wings. That is a damn nice rotation if Shields can revert to his 2013/2014 mode (Where he was pitching in the same division) If Hughes looks shaky/injured to begin the season. DL him or start him in the pen, that opens up May's shot. If June rolls around and Berrios is pushing for a spot? Figure out a way to trade Gibson. Make no mistake, Shields instantly becomes the best pitcher the Twins have if they trade for him.
  6. DaveW
    In 2016? 95% chance on all three. In 2017-2018? 60% chance on Berrios, 75% on Duffey and May (and I like BOTH very much) Nothing stops the Twins from trading any of Gibson, Milone, Santana etc at anypoint as well.
  7. DaveW
    James Shields: 2011-2014 3.17 ERA 233IP per year! 3.49 FIP, 8.0 K 2.3 BB 1.1155 WHIP Jame Shields 2015: 3.91 ERA 201 IP NTM the Shields in 2011-2014 was in the AL and in 2014 posted great numbers across the board. Anyone who says Nolasco is better then Shields in 2016 is being very very very optimistic with no backing. Shields for Nolasco straight up? Uh, yes, 100%, all day, every day. The Padres would have to be high to consider such a deal, and Terry Ryan would have to be high to turn down such a deal!
  8. DaveW
    If they trot out Sano-Rosario-Arcia opening day after having just traded Hicks, then Ryan should just resign on the spot. That is inexcusable.
  9. DaveW
    Good lord.
  10. DaveW
    Also give me Fien at 2.5 million over Stauffer last year at the same amount.
  11. DaveW
    I'm not super worried about that, if there has been one thing the twins have been worse then their ability to develop good young starting pitching (strike outs) over the past decade, it's developing power bullpen arms. Other than Perkins, and now May (who should be a starter anyways) they haven't had a whole lot of feather in their caps so to speak.
  12. DaveW
    I hate mediocrity as much as anyone else...but as long as Fien is the 5th option in the pen (including closer) I don't mind this move. I'd much rather have Fien in that role then Boyer. If Burdi or someone presses the issue you can always let Fien walk at some point Stauffer style. However if Fien is the 3rd option behind perkins and Jepsen.... Uh oh
  13. DaveW
    My bad! I'm just so excited about the pelf news!
  14. DaveW
    Huh? No. That is only if a player refuses a qualifying offer, which Pelfrey never came close to getting.
  15. DaveW
    I don't mind the Fien tendering as he is a solid pitcher, however I think they need to bring in one more shut down type arm, whether through trade: storen, chapman or even papelbon (though Washington would have to eat almost every penny in this scenario) I have a feeling though the twins are already penciling May into the bullpen, which is a shame.
  16. DaveW
    This is an excellent post/point. Add May to that list as well, he was favored over Trevor May this year who was booted from the rotation for no real good reason. If the Twins want to contend, they need guys with upside to step up in 2016, if they want to hover around .500 and not make the playoffs, then having guys like Milone take those starts instead of May, Duffey or Berrios is the way to go.
  17. DaveW
    You can absolutely buy low on a 34 y/o SP at $21m/yr, you can have the Padres kick in some money to any trade to "soften the blow" or you can convince them to take back a bad contract as part of the trade as well (Nolasco) There is no reason why he can't bounce back to his career norms next year, and then still be pretty effetive in his age 35/36 seasons.
  18. DaveW
    Chris Young made the ML minimum last year. Not sure what that has to do with paying Milone 7 million. Vargas was in the 2nd year of a 4 year deal (basically Phil Hughes/Nolasco type contract) Not sure that that has to do with paying Milone 7 million next year when we don't need to. Jeremy Guthrie might have been the worst SP in baseball last year, he was also in the middle of a long term contract, not sure what that has to do with paying Milone 7 million next year when we don't need to. Chris Young actually is the perfect example of what the Twins could/should do when it comes to a 7th/8th starter, go sign a veteran for the minimum who can step in for some spot starts.
  19. DaveW
    Do you really believe this? I sure don't. Taking contracts and everything else out of the equation, I would take the following pitchers over Milone in 2016 100% no doubt about it: Ervin Santana Kyle Gibson Tyler Duffery Jose Berrios Trevor May That is 5 guys right there who are better pitchers and have more upside then Milone. At that point, Milone is the 6th option, you don't need to pay real money to a guy like that. Now, factor in two other guys who are under contract: Phil Hughes- Had a GREAT 2014, personally I think he bounces back, and regardless, he is under contract and deserves a chance at a healthy 2016. Nolasco- I would take Milone over him, but Nolasco is going nowhere, obviously it would be better if he wasn't here/not on the books, but at this stage he is our 7th option at SP long term in 2016 (or worse) Now if some of those guys get hurt, you then have guys like Alex Meyer, Pat Dean and more ready to potentially step in for spot starts, the bonus is they make the minimum. Giving Milone 7 million dollars to provide depth when he shouldn't be in the opening day rotation is just settling for more mediocrity. If money wasn't an issue, go for it, but I have heard time and time again on this board how the Twins are "payroll deficient", so it seems to be not wise to spend 7 million on a strictly depth guy.
  20. DaveW
    You can find SP depth for a lot less than what it will cost Milone. Berrios Gibson Hughes Santana Duffey May Nolasco Those are all guys the Twins already have to pitch who are already under contract or cheap, they already have too many (7) pitchers for 5 spots, and that is before we include any other pitchers who may or may not step up (ala Duffey last year). In that list we can add Graham, Meyer, Dean as all guys who could step up as well. Just no point to be committing real money to him. Again, paying a guy like Milone 5-7 million (depending on who you ask) to just sort of be SP depth is a bad use of money IMO, would rather spend that money on an impact arm for the bullpen or use it for some OF help/depth.
  21. DaveW
    Perhaps because Shields in the 4 years prior to last years clear outlier year: 233 IP per year 3.17 ERA 3.41 FIP 124 ERA+ 8 k/9 2.3 bb/9 Half of which were while pitching for a team in the dreaded AL east, all of which were while pitching for a team in the dreaded AL. The "Shields" crowd, which I am a part of, likes the idea of bringing him in because he is a perfect buy low, high upside type guy currently. Milone meanwhile has never hit 200 IP (Only got above 160 IP once) and never has had an ERA+ over 106. So, I would imagine that is just some of the logic there
  22. DaveW
    Milone for Papelbon (+5-6 million) would be a more likely trade, and I would take it.
  23. DaveW
    This is the perfect time to cut bait with mediocre guys like Fien and Nunez and aim higher for their replacements, in Nunez's case it will be 2 mil cheaper or so. I would cut bait with Milone as well, he is 6th starter material for a contending team, you can bring those guys up from AAA or get them for the minimum. Only way I would render Milone a contract is if they already had a handshake deal on the books with a team who would give up ANYTHING for him.
  24. DaveW
    Good point, I never tried to call anyone names, I was just kind of shocked that I read something in an otherwise great thread, I apologize if I sidetracked it at all, honestly. I was just taken back a bit.
  25. DaveW
    um no, I never implied that or said that. I was asking you to clarify what you were saying.
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